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Post by bluechip on Dec 4, 2012 20:31:48 GMT -5
Keith Law on Victorino (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/blog/_/name/law_keith/id/8711965/shane-victorino-deal-boston-red-sox-doomed-fail-mlb): Excerpt: Shane Victorino's three-year, $39 million contract with the Boston Red Sox vaults to the top of the ranking of the worst contracts signed so far this offseason, giving him virtually the same total dollars that Angel Pagan -- a superior player -- will receive in a contract that's a year longer...Victorino is a platoon outfielder at this point, and paying him $13 million a year, even with the rapid salary escalation we're seeing this offseason, is mad as pants. His bat speed was noticeably slower in 2012, especially later in the season, and despite being a switch-hitter he doesn't really hit right-handed pitching. Pagan is really not that much better than Victorino. Need we look at what Pagan did in 2011? Victorino is also a far superior defensive player. Kieth Law is being short sighted and ignoring defense with that comment.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 4, 2012 20:33:19 GMT -5
Could the people bitching about the "overpay" here please A) actually provide some evidence, in terms of Victorino's projected value versus the market rate on wins, etc and B) explain to me why an overpay even matters given the Red Sox's financial situation? Overpay because it's a bad use of resources and Sox payroll already up to $140M according to Speier. And it's a bad signing altogether. The guy's horrible against right-handed pitching, which comprises more than 85% of the pitchers they will face this year. Cherrington paid top dollar for a "starter" (see Pagan, Angel) who figures to be offensively effective for only about 15% of his at bats. Brilliant.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 4, 2012 20:37:41 GMT -5
Could the people bitching about the "overpay" here please A) actually provide some evidence, in terms of Victorino's projected value versus the market rate on wins, etc and B) explain to me why an overpay even matters given the Red Sox's financial situation? Overpay because it's a bad use of resources and Sox payroll already up to $140M according to Speier. And it's a bad signing altogether. The guy's horrible against right-handed pitching, which comprises more than 85% of the pitchers they will face this year. Cherrington paid top dollar for a "starter" (see Pagan, Angel) who figures to be offensively effective for only about 15% of his at bats. Brilliant. Who did you want them to sign? Hamilton? Swisher (who does not belong in a Fenway RF)? Victorino is a much better defender than Pagan.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 4, 2012 20:47:41 GMT -5
So now it's about Defense but it wasn't with Gomes and Napoli? Really?
I would've signed BJ Upton or Swisher over Pagan or Victorino. You get plus defense and more offense* with Upton and ave D with much more OBP witch Swisher.
Modification *more offense than Victorino or Pagan. And he's younger.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Dec 4, 2012 20:48:42 GMT -5
3 years and $39 for a 4th outfielder like Victorino is not a good deal.
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Post by elguapo on Dec 4, 2012 20:54:04 GMT -5
Obviously the Sox like Victorino more than Pagan going forward, despite their performance in the most recent year.
I find it hard to give credence to the theory that Victorino suddenly became washed-up at the plate in a span of months at age 31.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 4, 2012 21:06:30 GMT -5
3 years and $39 for a 4th outfielder like Victorino is not a good deal. He's a 4th outfielder because Keith Law says so? There are some who think he just had an off yer due to the circus that surrounded him (Philly) and contract distractions. He's not that old so it's not out of he realm of possibility last yer was just an off year. Go back per steroids and stuff like that happened. I think people are still adjusting to the post terroir era.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 4, 2012 21:07:47 GMT -5
So now it's about Defense but it wasn't with Gomes and Napoli? Really? I would've signed BJ Upton or Swisher over Pagan or Victorino. You get plus defense and more offense* with Upton and ave D with much more OBP witch Swisher. Modification *more offense than Victorino or Pagan. And he's younger. Defense at first or left is not as important as RF in Fenway Park (actually RF defense is usually slightly more important than LF because the RF needs a good arm, but in Fenway, the LF needs less range and the RF needs more).
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Post by Guidas on Dec 4, 2012 21:09:01 GMT -5
Obviously the Sox like Victorino more than Pagan going forward, despite their performance in the most recent year. I find it hard to give credence to the theory that Victorino suddenly became washed-up at the plate in a span of months at age 31. Victorino 2010 vs RHP .235/.306/.386/.681 2011 vs. RHP .271/.333/.456/.788 2012 vs RHP .229/.296/.333/.629 Months? And if they trade Ells, this yutz is your lead-off batter? Is that what people are saying? Really?
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Post by bluechip on Dec 4, 2012 21:11:21 GMT -5
Months? And if they trade Ells, this yutz is your lead-off batter? Is that what people are saying? Really? If they trade ellsbury, Pedroia should be your leadoff hitter. Pedroia should be the leadoff hitter even if they do not trade Ellsbury.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Dec 4, 2012 21:17:09 GMT -5
3 years and $39 for a 4th outfielder like Victorino is not a good deal. He's a 4th outfielder because Keith Law says so? There are some who think he just had an off yer due to the circus that surrounded him (Philly) and contract distractions. He's not that old so it's not out of he realm of possibility last yer was just an off year. Go back per steroids and stuff like that happened. I think people are still adjusting to the post terroir era. Victorino has slider bat speed and no power which is not what you are looking for in a corner outfielder.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 4, 2012 21:27:36 GMT -5
Slider bat speed? Says who? Listen, I don't know if he's going to work out. Not high on this, but if he plays more like the years leading up to last year then he's going to be solid. We can speculate he won't but one year dips are not uncommon. I wouldn't get too caught up in the production from a position. The production from the lineup as a whole is all that matters. But if you really care about that, there is a good chance he plays more center than right, even if they keep Jacoby (injury dig).
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Dec 4, 2012 22:00:31 GMT -5
Do you guys even look up a players stats when you throw 4th of stuff out there? He was a key player on a team that won 5 straight division championships. He plays hard every day. I live in Pa. and watch the Phils when the Sox aren't on and listen to their games on the radio if I'm in the car and there is a game on. Larry Anderson thought Shane put too much pressure on himself last year to have a big season in his free agent year. Really pressed. Everybody says Napoli's best year was an abberration. It's only fair to Victorino to say that 2012 was his worst year. Look at the prior years. Career OBP .341 and averaged 96 runs scored from 08 thru 11. He's not very selective. Can be frustrating. Wants to make the big hit and can lose his patience. But, he's scored 455 runs over the last 5 years. Jacoby has scored 364 and can't stay on the field. Jacoby's career OBP is .349. I think we'll get two good years out of Shane and then a guy like Bogaerts or Brentz can replace him.
2011 .847 OPS/60 XBH .355 obp runs 95 2010 .756 OPS/54 XBH ..327 OBP runs 84 2009 .803 OPS/62 XBH ..358 OBP runs 102 2008 .799 OPS/52 XBH .352 OBP runs 102
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Post by jmei on Dec 4, 2012 22:11:42 GMT -5
I'm mildly on the dislike end of this signing, and here's why.
Victorino has been a good player over his career, and you don't need UZR to prove it. His career triple-slash .273/.339/.428, 29 steals per 600 PAs) is similar to pre-2011 Jacoby Ellsbury (.291/.344/.405, 54 steals per 600 PAs) with more power and fewer steals. It's also quite similar to pre-2010 Carl Crawford (.296/.337/.444, 45 steals per 600 PAs). That profile is very valuable, especially accompanied by well-above average defense at center field.
Of course, Victorino had a bad 2012, but that's mostly because his BABIP (.278) was near a career low (his career BABIP is .296) and far below his xBABIP (.295) while his walk and strikeout rates were in line with his career averages. Some have questioned his bat speed, but from a statistical perspective it's hard to tell. His contact rates have held relatively steady but his effectiveness against fastballs has declined four years in a row, which is a definite red flag. That said, as long as he's making decent contact, he's a good bet to hit .270 and get on base .340 or so.
The bigger question is with regards to his power, as he hit for a career-low ISO last year (.128; .154 career). Part of that decline is a low HR/FB (6%, career 7.5%), but he also only hit 7 triples when he had hit 16 a year before (he hit doubles at a similar rate as he has in the past).
I have no clue if that power will return, but even if it doesn't, Victorino should be an above-average regular in CF once his BABIP bounces back to career norms. But Victorino won't be playing in CF, and even if you assume otherworldly defense in RF, it's tough for him to be worth the contract if his power doesn't return. I'd have been thrilled with Victorino at three years, $30m, but the extra $9m tempers my enthusiasm considerably. This won't be a disaster, but it does seem to be an overpay.
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Post by buffs4444 on Dec 4, 2012 22:19:53 GMT -5
i like Victorino the player, and on a short term contract with the budget room this team has, money matters very little.
To the Flyin Hawaiian.....Welcome to Boston.
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Post by ctscott on Dec 4, 2012 22:23:30 GMT -5
I'm not ready to jump off of a bridge for this deal, but I'm far from happy about it. I think the 2-3 mil per year overpays will add up quickly, if we can't get some value buys here. Looking like a 80-win season more than likely.
I do like the defense and I think there's a lot of value in the specific set up (over-valuing RF defense and under-valuing LF defense) because of the home park effect. I just don't see how we couldn't entice Victorino with a few mil less. Only way this makes sense to me is if they move Ellsbury because otherwise, i think we could have sat back and waited out Victorino and if we missed out on him, so be it.
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Post by elguapo on Dec 4, 2012 22:32:16 GMT -5
...Victorino should be an above-average regular in CF once his BABIP bounces back to career norms. But Victorino won't be playing in CF... Oh really? Maybe he will and maybe he won't. But I think there's a very good chance he spends significant time in CF over the first two contract years at least, and the Sox placed significant value on that ability. He's a good complement to our young OF with the most potential, lefties Kalish & Bradley.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Dec 4, 2012 22:36:48 GMT -5
I'm not ready to jump off of a bridge for this deal, but I'm far from happy about it. I think the 2-3 mil per year overpays will add up quickly, if we can't get some value buys here. Looking like a 80-win season more than likely. I do like the defense and I think there's a lot of value in the specific set up (over-valuing RF defense and under-valuing LF defense) because of the home park effect. I just don't see how we couldn't entice Victorino with a few mil less. Only way this makes sense to me is if they move Ellsbury because otherwise, i think we could have sat back and waited out Victorino and if we missed out on him, so be it. Cleveland reportedly offered 4/44, and multiple teams offered three years (at unknown AAV's). If you like the player enough, this is the cost in today's crazy market. Everyone signed so far has been on 2-3 years, not to be captain obvious but next offseason they'll all have 1-2 years left. I don't think the spending has been very efficient, but they couldn't afford to wait out the market at every position with such roster uncertainty...and even if they did, the new CBA limits what you can do with the leftover money. This move from a pure value standpoint is poor imo, but given the factors at play I don't mind it IF they plan on adding another plus OF bat against righties (which is far from certain fwiw).
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Post by jmei on Dec 4, 2012 22:54:34 GMT -5
...Victorino should be an above-average regular in CF once his BABIP bounces back to career norms. But Victorino won't be playing in CF... Oh really? Maybe he will and maybe he won't. But I think there's a very good chance he spends significant time in CF over the first two contract years at least, and the Sox placed significant value on that ability. He's a good complement to our young OF with the most potential, lefties Kalish & Bradley. Sorry, let me clarify. If he does play in CF, it's probably a reasonably fair deal given the salary inflation we'll see this offseason. But until Ellsbury's out the door, it's a bad deal.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 4, 2012 23:03:32 GMT -5
Shane has played CF most of his career, and done it well. After his trade to Dodgertown he moved to left because of Kemp and Ethier.
The Sox may say they plan to play him in Right since they have a vacancy there, but I wonder. Did Cherington have a conversation with Boras in Nashville about Ellsbury which led him to believe that Jacoby would not be in the team's future?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2012 23:14:34 GMT -5
Has there been any reports of Victorino's diminished bat speed or declining speed/defensive skills? Yes according to Keith Laws various reports on him in his free agent review and in the writeup of the signing.
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2012 23:18:44 GMT -5
RE: Victorino as a character guy He threw a well-publicized fit last year in Philly when Manuel dropped him to 7th in the order when he was slumping. It led to him getting benched. Shh Temple don't put a fly in the narrative Victorino is a "gamer" who "gets his uniform dirty", or didn't you get the memo?
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Post by Deleted on Dec 4, 2012 23:22:04 GMT -5
You are taking this regression to the mean thing way too far. BABIP for a hitter is heavily influenced by the players ability. If his batspeed regresses and there are reports that it did, the player will not have a BABIP in line with the rest of his career.
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Post by bluechip on Dec 4, 2012 23:23:30 GMT -5
Has there been any reports of Victorino's diminished bat speed or declining speed/defensive skills? Yes according to Keith Laws various reports on him in his free agent review and in the writeup of the signing. Some things to consider. Well, his strikeout rate (12%) was not significantly above his career level (11.6%). His LD% (17.8%) was its best since 2009. His IFFB% (14.7%) was the same as 2010 and below his career average. On the other hand, his PITCHf/x values for fastballs has been trending downward for four straight years.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 4, 2012 23:26:00 GMT -5
So now it's about Defense but it wasn't with Gomes and Napoli? Really? I would've signed BJ Upton or Swisher over Pagan or Victorino. You get plus defense and more offense* with Upton and ave D with much more OBP witch Swisher. Modification *more offense than Victorino or Pagan. And he's younger. Defense at first or left is not as important as RF in Fenway Park (actually RF defense is usually slightly more important than LF because the RF needs a good arm, but in Fenway, the LF needs less range and the RF needs more). I'm not necessarily defending the signing, but what he said. It may not have been "about defense" with Napoli or Gomes, the primary 1B and the platoon left fielder, but it's about defense with Victorino and Ross, the starting RF (for now) and platoon C. Basic defensive spectrum. It'll be about defense if they go into the season with Iglesias at short (which I'm admittedly skeptical of, but we'll see). Teams are allowed to sign players with different strengths and say that it was those strengths that piqued their interest.
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