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2014 Sox Catching Tandem?
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 27, 2013 15:10:54 GMT -5
The Phillies are moving on from Ruiz and will be big players for Salty (less so for McCann, because they don't need a lefty bat). Salty is essentially a lefty bat.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 27, 2013 16:18:48 GMT -5
Fair enough. I've still heard PHI more with Salty than McCann.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 28, 2013 1:50:27 GMT -5
Interesting. I'd go McCann. I think Saltalamacchia is a big BABIP regression candidate and he's more likely to be a 2012-esque, league-average type guy going forward. A hell of a lot less than you'd expect, though. Using league-average BABIP for GB, FB, and LD separately (B-Ref data), he has 15 more hits than expected. But that's 14 doubles and 1 single. (Simple calculations based on XBH/BIP, and then the percentage of BIP that aren't XBH that are 1B.) The very clear majority of cheap hits in play are singles, not doubles. Basically, the only common BABIP-luck doubles are bloops down the line, with the occasional deep FB that's misplayed. The 1 cheap single, BTW, is three extra line drive singles, and two fewer FB singles than expected, given his number of doubles. Which is to say his ratio of FB singles to fly outs is lower than average -- not the sign of a guy who is blooping up his BABIP. Because I'm insane, here are all of Salty's doubles, with the B-ref description followed by the BIS (FanGraphs) classification when not identical. Red for home games. Possible cheap hits in bold. 4/1: LD to deep LF 4/10: FB to deep LF/CF 4/10: LD to deep RF (Fliner / Liner) 4/22: LD to deep LF/CF (Fliner / Liner)4/27: FB to deep LF (Fliner / Liner)5/4: LD to deep RF line (Fliner / Liner) 5/6: FB to short LF line 5/8: FB to deep LF line (Fliner / Fly) 5/10: LD to deep RF (Fliner / Fly) 5/12: LD to deep RF line, ground rule (Fliner / Fly) 5/24: LD to deep CF (Fliner / Fly)5/30: LD to RF line (Fliner / Liner) 5/30: LD to deep RF (Fliner / Fly) 6/1: FB to deep CF/RF, ground rule (Fliner / Fly) 6/4: FB to deep LF/CF (Fliner / Fly) 6/5: FB to deep RF line (Liner)6/10: LD to deep LF line (Fliner / Liner) 6/19: FB to deep CF6/27: FB to deep LF/CF (Fliner / Fly) 7/3: FB to deep LF (Fliner / Fly)7/6: LD to deep RF line (Fliner / Liner) 7/6: LD to deep LF line (Fliner / Liner) 7/8: FB to deep CF/RF (Fliner / Fly) 7/9: LD to deep LF, ground rule (Fliner / Fly) 7/23: FB to deep RF line (Fliner / Liner)7/28: LD to deep RF line 8/2: LD to deep LF line (Fliner / Fly)8/7: LD to deep RF 8/9: GB to RF 8/13: LD to RF (Fliner / Liner)8/14: LD to deep CF/RF (Fliner / Liner) 8/14: GB through SS/3B hole (Liner) 8/18: FB to LF line (Fliner / Liner)8/19: LD to deep RF (Fliner / Liner) He has 0.5 more GB doubles than expected (and 0.2 more singles), so his lone GB double down the line, on 8/9, appears to be the norm. And we can thus regard the one in Toronto on 8/14 (which BIS scored as a liner) as half a cheap double, but not a cheap hit, and that leaves him with 0.7 more ground balls through a hole for a single than expected. He has 5.3 more LD doubles than expected, but every one of his LD doubles was either hit deep or down the line, except for the one in Toronto on 8/13, which IIRC may have been misplayed by Bautista. He has 8.0 more FB doubles than expected. One was a short bloop down the line on 5/6 and definitely lucky, and another was down the LF line on 8/18, neither short nor deep and scored a liner by BIS, so we'll call that half a lucky double. All the other FB doubles were hit deep, and very few even look like candidates to be misplayed. Four were deep in a gap, three were deep down the line (two of which BIS scored as liners). Three of the deep balls not in gaps (4/27, 6/19 and 7/3) were in Fenway and presumably off the wall, but may have been misplayed (by Fernando Martinez, Desmond Jennings and Carlos Quentin, respectively) if they weren't high up. One was on the road, in the season opener, and I happen to have scored it, and it wasn't misplayed by Vernon Wells. So: he has one extra single on the ground, and one in the air. He has one or two cheap doubles, and probably one or two misplayed doubles, out of 85 fly balls and 70 line drives. What's the norm, for a guy who hits that many balls deep? It's got to be at least one of each. Edit: Finally, it's also possible that he's simply never been robbed of a double by a good or great play, where it would have happened a couple of times to an average player. It's hard to see where he has more than five lucky hits, max, and it might well be only three. He has a ridiculous BABIP because he has a ridiculous LD% (28.6% BIS, 29.8% B-Ref), and because he hits his FB very deep, resulting in a ton of legitimate doubles. One might add that his HR/FB rate is down, from 17.3% / 15.9% (BIS / B-ref) his first two years here, to 11.7% / 10.4%. That's a 5.3 HR shortage (with either data source). This could be a compensatory skill effect from his increased LD rate, but it seems likelier that a few homers have been turned into doubles by bad luck. (I mean, how many deep fly ball doubles can one man hit?) In which case, there's even less to worry about in terms of regression. (Yeah, to do this precisely I'd have to take a deeper look at the discrepancies between BIS and B-Ref scoring, but in this case, those appear to offset one another.)
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larrycook
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Post by larrycook on Aug 28, 2013 7:41:37 GMT -5
It's not just Saltalamacchia and McCann, although I cannot say the alternatives (John Buck, A.J. Pierzynski, Carlos Ruiz) are terribly appealing. Objectively, McCann is the better, more consistent player. Buck is 33 and a below average offensive catcher, I want no part of Pierzynski and Ruiz is 34 and his performance has dropped this year (plus the amphetamine suspension). Former Red Sox draftee Yan Gomes is a trade option. The Phillies are moving on from Ruiz and will be big players for Salty (less so for McCann, because they don't need a lefty bat). I think the Hankees will be big players for McCann. I think McCann will require four years at close to $15mm per year. I think Salty will come a little (but not a lot) cheaper. I think the Sox signed Ross to a multi year deal expecting Vasqyez to be ready to replace him at the end of the deal. As for Salty,I think the Sox try to sign him to a deal the Sox are comfortable with, but if Salty goes beyond it,then I think the Sox walk from Salty. Buck is intriguing as an option. Didn't Farrell have him in Toronto for a season? But I agree that Farrell is not trusting Lavarnway making Lavarnway (plus others) likely trade bait this off season.
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Post by elguapo on Aug 28, 2013 8:21:51 GMT -5
It's hard to see where he has more than five lucky hits, max, and it might well be only three. He has a ridiculous BABIP because he has a ridiculous LD% (28.6% BIS, 29.8% B-Ref), and because he hits his FB very deep, resulting in a ton of legitimate doubles. I've noticed Napoli has something similar going on. But the question is: will the LD% regress? That's the outlier that is at the root of the BABIP norming.
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Post by jmei on Aug 28, 2013 9:17:28 GMT -5
It's hard to see where he has more than five lucky hits, max, and it might well be only three. He has a ridiculous BABIP because he has a ridiculous LD% (28.6% BIS, 29.8% B-Ref), and because he hits his FB very deep, resulting in a ton of legitimate doubles. I've noticed Napoli has something similar going on. But the question is: will the LD% regress? That's the outlier that is at the root of the BABIP norming. Yeah, line drive rate has very low year-to-year correlation (weaker than BABIP), so even if he's hit the ball on a line very hard this year, there's little reason to think he'll have the same results next year. Remember, if the angle of contact changes just a little, those line drives become fly balls with a much lower BABIP. Likewise, per the same link, the year-to-year correlation of doubles is also very low (again, weaker than BABIP), which is another reason I think Saltalamacchia's in store for some major regression. You're right, Eric, about Saltalamacchia probably trading some of those doubles for home runs. But the dip in batting average should more than offset that, and I'd project him as something like a .240/.300/.450 hitter (similar to 2011-12, but crediting him for a slight increase in walk rate). That's certainly valuable coming from your catcher, but with his low OBP and his mediocre defense, that's only about 2 WAR (over 120 games/450 PAs, a normalish season for a catcher).
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 28, 2013 12:07:01 GMT -5
I've noticed Napoli has something similar going on. But the question is: will the LD% regress? That's the outlier that is at the root of the BABIP norming. Yeah, line drive rate has very low year-to-year correlation (weaker than BABIP), so even if he's hit the ball on a line very hard this year, there's little reason to think he'll have the same results next year. Remember, if the angle of contact changes just a little, those line drives become fly balls with a much lower BABIP. Likewise, per the same link, the year-to-year correlation of doubles is also very low (again, weaker than BABIP), which is another reason I think Saltalamacchia's in store for some major regression. You're right, Eric, about Saltalamacchia probably trading some of those doubles for home runs. But the dip in batting average should more than offset that, and I'd project him as something like a .240/.300/.450 hitter (similar to 2011-12, but crediting him for a slight increase in walk rate). That's certainly valuable coming from your catcher, but with his low OBP and his mediocre defense, that's only about 2 WAR (over 120 games/450 PAs, a normalish season for a catcher). The year-to-year correlation between LD% in the BIS data is .293. You know what the correlation between the BIS scoring and the B-Ref scoring of Salatalamacchia's 2013 hard hit doubles is? .264. There are 13 that were scored as line drives by both, 7 scored as fly balls by both, 6 that were scored as line drives by BIS but fly balls at B-Ref, and 5 that were scored as fly balls by BIS but line drives at B-Ref. LD% has a lousy year-to-year correlation because, unlike nearly every other hitting stat, it's based on highly variable subjective judgments. I'm sure the correlation of very hard-hit balls is considerably better. Everything you said about LD and the sensitivity of contact applies to HRs as well, and yet the HR/Contact year-to-year correlation is .809. It doesn't make sense that the correlation for balls hit just as hard but not quite as high would be much lower. His % of hard-hit balls may revert all the way to 2011-12, but it won't be because of natural random variation. It would be because he's not hitting as well. And while he almost certainly won't hit as well, because this is a great season, a full reversion is, I think, unlikely.
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Post by jdb on Aug 30, 2013 9:39:27 GMT -5
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Post by okin15 on Aug 30, 2013 10:18:34 GMT -5
One factor he does not consider (and it's a big one to miss in an otherwise thorough article like this) is the likelihood of the Sox sending a qualifying offer to Salty. I suppose this article only confirms my suspicion that they will. But it could also lower the total package in the end, if only because the team signing him will also value in his draft pick cost.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 31, 2013 13:02:46 GMT -5
Any GM, or ownership pushed signing that forces a GM to give Salty anywhere near 5/60m is the kind of team that has payrolls of 200m and looking to get under salary caps, taking on aging veterans constantly... Not even Omar Minaya would have thought Salty is worth 5/60m and he's the guy that gave out Santanna's 6/137, Bay's 4/66m, Ollie's 3/36m.. Even Minaya didn't reward bad play (except Ollie) with mega millions.
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Post by jdb on Aug 31, 2013 13:17:45 GMT -5
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 31, 2013 13:25:32 GMT -5
If it takes 5 years to get McCann Then I would pass. It's uncommon for a catcher to be playing at a high level at the age of 33 and 34 and 15 mil is a little high for a less than great DH. 3/45 with an option would be great, but if that doesn't get it done then I think they should tray and re-sign Salty for 2-3 (may not be enough - but we will see) and let the young guys develop.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 31, 2013 14:43:51 GMT -5
I don't see much chance at all of Salty going back to Texas. There has to be a ton of bad blood there after what he went through. They tossed him into the trash bin effectively.
I don't like Salty's defense at all and do think he will regress some offensively. I'm not generally a fan of giving the big payday and expecting the same level of commitment because so often it just doesn't work that way and my sense is that Salty might be inclined to ease up after that big payday, as so many players do.
I also don't think Salty is optimized that much for Fenway. He is probably more suited to a Philadelphia type ballpark, although he is an effective wallball guy in Fenway. I think a lot of those wall balls would probably be out of some parks for him and he loses some HR in Fenway due to the distance to the RF fence and deep CF. Another team could well value him more.
Lastly, I'd rather spend the money elsewhere. I think Lavarnway is better than he is being given credit for and if you look closely at the overall level of performance of Vasquez and Swihart, they could be very effective players in the subsequent years to come. It is interesting that Swihart hit better as a RH batter this year and better as a LH batter last year and he looks to be in shape enough to catch 120-130 games a year. I like players without severe splits. I know it shouldn't matter that much in the aggregate but I like optimal lineup balence a lot. Unfortunately both Swihart and Vasquez are hitting better against LH pitching this year but the splits are not huge and we could use stronger RH bats in the lineup overall.
In 2014, I have no problem going cheap with Lavarnway/Ross next year with Vasquez/Butler as injury back up. The only question is to me whether to roll the dice with a QO to Salty. It would be potentially a 1 year deal and if he takes the deal, it which wouldn't kill us but I would want to see him finish strong before offering it to him. I'm all for saving out money to obtain premium starting pitching as it becomes available and hopefully an emerging bopper at 1st and in LF.
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Post by bigpupp on Aug 31, 2013 16:10:37 GMT -5
While you might like Lavarnway, it's clear Farrell does not.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 31, 2013 16:45:04 GMT -5
The only question is to me whether to roll the dice with a QO to Salty. It would be potentially a 1 year deal and if he takes the deal, it which wouldn't kill us but I would want to see him finish strong before offering it to him. I'm all for saving out money to obtain premium starting pitching as it becomes available and hopefully an emerging bopper at 1st and in LF. I have no doubt that Saltalamacchia will get a QO, since there are several teams that need a starting catcher and only two frontline catchers (McCann/Salty) available.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 31, 2013 18:13:42 GMT -5
While you might like Lavarnway, it's clear Farrell does not. Or he could like Salty EXTREMELY well! Not saying it's likely but considering how well Lavarnway has done against some stud pitchers in mlb this year, I think he warranted more PT.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 31, 2013 18:14:27 GMT -5
I would absolutely LOVE getting a pick from Salty, from Ellsbury and from Drew. What a coup.
Edit: I wouldn't take a chance offering a QO to Napoli unless he really turns it up the rest of this year.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 31, 2013 22:12:04 GMT -5
While you might like Lavarnway, it's clear Farrell does not. Or he could like Salty EXTREMELY well! Not saying it's likely but considering how well Lavarnway has done against some stud pitchers in mlb this year, I think he warranted more PT. It's like saying that time after time to a blanks stare.. Salty took off every game vs the best pitchers in the league, Lavarnway played and consistently hit vs those same pitchers with playing time that mostly consisted of 1 game per week tops. That to me is outstanding and Lavarnway didn't throw his stolen base attempt tosses into the OF, but mostly had them on target as well. Farrell must have something about Ivy leaguers that are smarter than him, since Lava seems to have proven that his BB abilities are beyond Salty's.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 31, 2013 22:55:25 GMT -5
One thing that we have to keep in mind is that the Red Sox have 50+ million to spend on 3 medium/major holes and 2 minors holes for next season. Those are OF, 1B/OF and C. Then RP and util INF (the trade for McDonald makes it clear how thin they are).
And in 2014 they will have more room for payroll and most of their SP coming off the books. So overpaying for Salty/McCann isn't likely to be a detriment unless they need long term contracts.
But to be honest, I'm warming up to the idea of signing Ruiz to a 1-2 year deal until the kids are ready (let them steal the starting catcher job from him in my opinion)
If you are a fan of the new defensive catching statistics, then he looks to be as good or better than Salty/McCann over the last 4 years:
Ruiz (4 year WAR = 13.7) G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR 121 433 8 43 53 0 12.7 % 12.5 % .146 .335 .302 .400 .447 .368 127 7.0 -3.5 4.1 132 472 6 49 40 1 10.2 % 10.2 % .100 .308 .283 .371 .383 .333 108 1.5 -2.0 2.9 114 421 16 56 68 4 6.9 % 11.9 % .215 .339 .325 .394 .540 .398 151 3.4 -0.1 5.2 73 263 5 24 21 1 3.8 % 12.2 % .108 .302 .279 .324 .388 .312 96 0.4 1.5 1.5
Salty (4 year WAR = 6 - with some time missed) G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR 12 30 0 2 2 0 20.0 % 16.7 % .125 .211 .167 .333 .292 .297 76 0.3 0.2 0.1 103 386 16 52 56 1 6.2 % 30.8 % .215 .304 .235 .288 .450 .319 94 -3.0 0.3 1.5 121 448 25 55 59 0 8.5 % 31.0 % .232 .265 .222 .288 .454 .319 96 -0.3 -0.4 1.9 106 414 11 55 52 0 9.4 % 30.7 % .182 .376 .267 .336 .449 .341 110 -2.0 -0.5 2.5
McCann (4 year way = 13.6) G PA HR R RBI SB BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA wRC+ Fld BsR WAR 143 566 21 63 77 5 13.1 % 17.3 % .184 .297 .269 .375 .453 .362 123 11.0 -4.9 5.1 128 527 24 51 71 3 10.8 % 16.9 % .195 .287 .270 .351 .466 .350 122 1.8 -3.9 3.9 121 487 20 44 67 3 9.0 % 15.6 % .169 .234 .230 .300 .399 .300 87 2.5 -2.3 1.8 85 334 19 36 50 0 9.3 % 17.4 % .228 .278 .272 .344 .500 .364 134 1.6 -4.0 2.8
He may be old - but even in 2013 (a down year) he is much better than you would expect and the low numbers are more injury related quantitative numbers. With Ross, Lavarnway, Butler and Vasquez (on the horizon) this we be solid production and very strong depth at a reasonable cost and risk.
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Post by iakovos11 on Sept 1, 2013 9:33:40 GMT -5
Farrell must have something about Ivy leaguers that are smarter than him, since Lava seems to have proven that his BB abilities are beyond Salty's. Seriously? I mean he hasn't been getting consistent AB's in Boston, but his .696 OPS in AAA surely has me drooling. And if Farrell hates him for being smarter than he (irresponsible and ridiculous statement)then the Sox should have been able to trade him for something decent - good value in their eyes anyway. No buyers, though. I think that might say something about Lavarnway - at least where he's at in 2013.
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larrycook
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Post by larrycook on Sept 1, 2013 10:51:35 GMT -5
Seriously? I mean he hasn't been getting consistent AB's in Boston, but his .696 OPS in AAA surely has me drooling. And if Farrell hates him for being smarter than he (irresponsible and ridiculous statement)then the Sox should have been able to trade him for something decent - good value in their eyes anyway. No buyers, though. I think that might say something about Lavarnway - at least where he's at in 2013. Who says the Sox tried to move Lavarnway this year? Given the tenuous health of Ross,the Sox needed catching depth this season. Hard to see the Sox moving Lavarnway at all this off season given the unclear status of Salty and the inexperience of Vasquez and Butler.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 1, 2013 11:55:31 GMT -5
People have up years and down years. As of yesterday, Iglesias is still hitting .320 after 300 AB this year. And he hit in the 100's last year. Does that mean he is suddenly a mega stud hitter? Sometimes players have exceptionally bad years and sometimes they have exceptionally good years.
You could make a strong case that Lavarnway was tired or sick from weight loss last year and that affected his performance and that hitting .280 in mlb against excellent pitching ( which wasn't even optimized right vs left by the way this year) is more indicative of his performance potential going forward. After many years of top offensive performance in the minors. He actually had more AB against RH pitchers this year than LH pitchers. And we have detailed that they were stud pitchers across the board. We threw him to the lions this year and effectively sheltered Salty against a lot of top pitchers.
For whatever reason. Why speculate when we do not know but Lavarnway's use this year appears anomalous. It seems unusual to me to throw the sub out there against the Felix Hernandez types. Most of the time, coaches seem to play rookies and aspiring young players into situations where they are more likely to have success.
For the record, Bill James projected Lavarnway to hit .260 this year with 25 doubles and 16 HR in 415 AB. Does that sound like a terrible catcher? At least some people in the org still have faith in Lavarnway.
To me, they looked at Lavarnway as cheap injury depth this year and why wouldn't they? That is exactly what he proved to be. It was a good roll for him. He probably benefitted from more time behind the plate in the minors. He contributed well when he was brought up. It was an excellent decision on their part.
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Post by jmei on Sept 1, 2013 13:13:58 GMT -5
Bill James hasn't personally done those projections for years and they are notoriously bullish on hitters with strong minor league track records (for instance, it projected Wieters to have a Pujols-esque rookie season).
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Post by jdb on Sept 1, 2013 13:32:32 GMT -5
I could get behind Ruiz in a platoon but we already have Ross. Besides that four years of data doesn't mean much to me since he is 34 and exiting his prime while Salty and McCann are under 30 are just entering theirs.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Sept 1, 2013 14:24:09 GMT -5
Seriously? I mean he hasn't been getting consistent AB's in Boston, but his .696 OPS in AAA surely has me drooling. And if Farrell hates him for being smarter than he (irresponsible and ridiculous statement)then the Sox should have been able to trade him for something decent - good value in their eyes anyway. No buyers, though. I think that might say something about Lavarnway - at least where he's at in 2013. For the record, you just quoted me as saying something I didn't say. That sort of thing just shouldn't be done. It's a completely made up quote. I didn't say "Farrell must have something about Ivy leaguers that are smarter than him, since Lava seems to have proven that his BB abilities are beyond Salty's." Don't misquote me again.
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