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2014 Sox Catching Tandem?
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Post by larrycook on Sept 4, 2013 6:30:41 GMT -5
Yeah, I would give him the QO. If he accepts, try to negotiate something like 3 years, $35m, but don't go much beyond that. I would be happy to have him for one year, $14m if an extension can't be reached. If he doesn't accept, play him off McCann and see which one you can get on an acceptable deal. Ruiz is a fine buy-low backup option. Would you give Ruiz a two year deal hoping he is a bridge to Swilhart?
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Post by jmei on Sept 4, 2013 9:02:00 GMT -5
Yeah, I would do two years. I think he'll come cheap-- maybe $5m AAV.
Edit: although I wouldn't count on him being a bridge to Swihart. Catchers can take longer to develop.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 4, 2013 12:26:26 GMT -5
Yeah, I would do two years. I think he'll come cheap-- maybe $5m AAV. Edit: although I wouldn't count on him being a bridge to Swihart. Catchers can take longer to develop. Still that 3/35m prepossessed above is alot of money. Catcher by committee.. Bring in multiple veterans over the winter, Tampa did it even with one of the best staffs in the game and shook out Molina, so we know it works. Teams don't need to end up paying 35-50m for liabilities like Salty behind the dish. bring up Vazquez/Lavarnway/Butler, or whichever they think will stick around for a couple of seasons as the main guy and learn as the platoon partner to a grizzled veteran. No need to pamper starting pitchers set in there ways of only pitching to a Varitek, they get used to pitching to a Salty when Tek is gone and will get used to pitching to someone else when Salty is gone. Spend resources wisely.
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Post by raftsox on Sept 4, 2013 13:45:07 GMT -5
That's a good discussion point johnsilver52. When is it worth it to spend money on "players" rather than focusing on the team?
If you look at team WAR by the catcher position over the past 4 seasons you can essentially break the league into 3 tiers. Tier one, is the elite catchers who obviously provide significant value; 6 teams. Tier 2 is the group of average catchers which is where the Sox have been, and comprises about 15 teams. The final tier is just plain bad.
So, the argument would be: 1. Keep Salty and remain in tier 2, but likely at an overpay for the production 2. Upgrade from Salty to get into tier 1 (McCann) 3. Swap Salty for Lavarnway/Vasquez/etc. and hope to not fall into tier 3
I'm of the belief that a healthy Ross and Lavarnway would represent a slight negative, but not enough of one to drop into Tier 3.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 4, 2013 14:14:26 GMT -5
Let's not forget that the luxury tax next year rises to $189M and the Red Sox only have $126M committed with only Tazawa, Miller, Morales, and Carp as arb eligible. That's going to leave them with $55-$60M to spend. They don't have to go the cheap route and pray that what they currently have organizationally at the position will be satisfactory and they probably shouldn't.
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Post by azblue on Sept 4, 2013 15:51:06 GMT -5
Sign Salty for three years. When Vasquez and/or Swihart are major league ready, trade Salty. Lavarnway/Butler can backup.
The excitement about Swihart should not overshadow Vasquez, who will likely become an above average hitter for a catcher and provide elite defense.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 4, 2013 16:30:36 GMT -5
Let's not forget that the luxury tax next year rises to $189M and the Red Sox only have $126M committed with only Tazawa, Miller, Morales, and Carp as arb eligible. That's going to leave them with $55-$60M to spend. They don't have to go the cheap route and pray that what they currently have organizationally at the position will be satisfactory and they probably shouldn't. Right. I'm glad we didn't trade for Papelbon this year, and when we let him go we needed to, but going the cheap route there did not save too much money. If you can get a better catcher than Salty, get him, but getting a worse catcher or two just so that you can say you've saved $7M or so, when there might not be enough people available for us to spend $189M on, seems unwise. Especially when you could find yourself in a hole where you have to trade a Masterson package for a VMart type.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Sept 4, 2013 18:50:31 GMT -5
Let's not forget that the luxury tax next year rises to $189M and the Red Sox only have $126M committed with only Tazawa, Miller, Morales, and Carp as arb eligible. That's going to leave them with $55-$60M to spend. They don't have to go the cheap route and pray that what they currently have organizationally at the position will be satisfactory and they probably shouldn't. Right. I'm glad we didn't trade for Papelbon this year, and when we let him go we needed to, but going the cheap route there did not save too much money. If you can get a better catcher than Salty, get him, but getting a worse catcher or two just so that you can say you've saved $7M or so, when there might not be enough people available for us to spend $189M on, seems unwise. Especially when you could find yourself in a hole where you have to trade a Masterson package for a VMart type. Spending the money just for the sake of it for what could end up as a replacement level catcher in another year and isn't even a good defensive catcher now isn't a sound idea here. It's why see nothing wrong with going to ST, bringing in various other veterans who are always floating around along with both Ross and the trio of Butler, Vazquez and Lavarnway. Spend that money on a RH bat that is needed more than a catcher who has trouble doing that.
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Post by jmei on Sept 4, 2013 19:55:33 GMT -5
Spending the money just for the sake of it for what could end up as a replacement level catcher in another year and isn't even a good defensive catcher now isn't a sound idea here. It's why see nothing wrong with going to ST, bringing in various other veterans who are always floating around along with both Ross and the trio of Butler, Vazquez and Lavarnway. Spend that money on a RH bat that is needed more than a catcher who has trouble doing that. Are you referring to Saltalamacchia as the player who "could end up as a replacement level catcher in another year?" Because even those pessimistic on Saltalamacchia would readily admit that there is a very, very small chance of that happening. Meanwhile, the kind of veteran catchers who are floating around unsigned towards the end of the free agency period are almost always replacement-level players, and Lavarnway and Butler are far, far more likely to be replacement-level than Saltalamacchia. It's really a question of whether the $10-13m it's going to cost to re-sign Saltalamacchia can be better spent elsewhere. And considering that the Red Sox will have at least $50m before even coming close to the CBT line and three real holes (C, 1B, RP) to fill, I have a hard time seeing a more efficient way of spending that cash.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Sept 4, 2013 22:02:06 GMT -5
Right. I'm glad we didn't trade for Papelbon this year, and when we let him go we needed to, but going the cheap route there did not save too much money. If you can get a better catcher than Salty, get him, but getting a worse catcher or two just so that you can say you've saved $7M or so, when there might not be enough people available for us to spend $189M on, seems unwise. Especially when you could find yourself in a hole where you have to trade a Masterson package for a VMart type. Spending the money just for the sake of it for what could end up as a replacement level catcher in another year and isn't even a good defensive catcher now isn't a sound idea here. It's why see nothing wrong with going to ST, bringing in various other veterans who are always floating around along with both Ross and the trio of Butler, Vazquez and Lavarnway. Spend that money on a RH bat that is needed more than a catcher who has trouble doing that. Lots wrong with this. It's not "Spending the money just for the sake of it"; it's spending so as to have a catcher whose combined O and D is much better than that of the Filene's Basement alternatives. As as Jmei said, Salty is unlikely to "end up as a replacement level catcher." And finally, given the ample amount of money available below the cap, there is no connection between how much we spend on catcher and our ability to pick up a RH bat. We could even blow past the cap for a year with only modest penalties. I do still remember the pain of not being able to sign Kuroda, and of having to trade our SS so as to be able to sign even Cody Ross. But those days are gone.
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Post by raftsox on Sept 5, 2013 9:32:25 GMT -5
Resigning Salty is more than just "we have extra money so we can pay more than he's worth...". I expect that the Sox will assign a value to him and won't go over that value.
For me however, it's more than 1B, C, RP. I believe that Ellsbury represents a much greater loss than this community is willing to acknowledge. I fully expect Bradley to step in with positive defensive value, but I think offensively he'll be a liability for at least the first half of the season. I'll estimate a ceiling of 3 WAR.
So, looking at the total team picture: 1B is a clear need and RP could be an in-house solution, but clearly shouldn't cost a lot of money. Salty is a 2 win player, Ellsbury is a 6 win player. IF you have to choose between the two (because we don't know what a new 1B will cost) then it makes a lot more sense to gamble with a 2 win player than a 6 win player.
If you resign Salty for $13M/year, and sign a 1B for $15M (upgrade from Napoli) plus have arb raises up to $8M and sign relievers for $10M, you're a lot closer to the cap than anticipated which doesn't leave you room for Ellsbury.
I prefer to look at things is a $/WAR/position standpoint. You lose more value from letting Ellsbury walk than you do from letting Salty walk. So, if it comes down to choosing between the two, I sign Ellsbury and hope that Ross/? is a 2 win combo.
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Post by elguapo on Sept 5, 2013 9:38:43 GMT -5
If you can get a better catcher than Salty, get him, but getting a worse catcher or two just so that you can say you've saved $7M or so, Let's use Carlos Ruiz as the default alternative signing. He's a cheaper sign than Salty, having his worst year since 2008 but projects to ~ 2 fWAR for the season, and shouldn't cost a draft pick. Salty, on the other hand, projects to 2.8 fWAR in this career year, and if you re-sign him you don't get a comp pick. That's probably a better debate than Salty vs random-veteran-catchers.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2013 10:34:52 GMT -5
If you can get a better catcher than Salty, get him, but getting a worse catcher or two just so that you can say you've saved $7M or so, Let's use Carlos Ruiz as the default alternative signing. He's a cheaper sign than Salty, having his worst year since 2008 but projects to ~ 2 fWAR for the season, and shouldn't cost a draft pick. Salty, on the other hand, projects to 2.8 fWAR in this career year, and if you re-sign him you don't get a comp pick. That's probably a better debate than Salty vs random-veteran-catchers. Ruiz is having an awful year at age 34. Yes you could save $7M by signing him over Saltalamachia but you are taking the risk that he's done and will offer no value. With the Red Sox so far under the LT threshold, it's not a risk worth taking.
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2013 10:59:02 GMT -5
This is inaccurate. I estimate that the Red Sox so far have $125M in commitments. Which leaves them $64M to spend. Your estimation above only adds up to $46M which would leave room to sign Ellsbury.
But even so a couple of your assumptions are faulty.
#1 The Sox have Tazawa, Breslow, Uehara, Miller, Morales and Dempster for the pen next year. They could conceivably sign a high risk high reward reliever like Crain, but where exactly are the Sox going to spend $10M on relievers?
#2 The 1B free agent crop next year is terrible. None of those players are getting $15M unless someone goes all out for Loney. Further if you resign Ellsbury and put Bradley in LF you can use the Carp, Nava, Gomes hydra to fill in at 1B for you.
There's just no need to hope and pray that Lavarnway is a major league catcher just to save $10-$15M or so. You'll end up far under the tax cap and with possibly unacceptable alternatives at catcher.
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Post by okin15 on Sept 5, 2013 11:08:03 GMT -5
If the Sox don't sign Salty, they really ought to be looking for a LHH catcher to complement either Ross or Lavarnway. (the SHness of Swihart at a predominantly RHH position is one of his greatest assets btw. He has reverse splits this year, but the sample size is pretty small.)
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Post by Deleted on Sept 5, 2013 11:20:18 GMT -5
If the Sox don't sign Salty, they really ought to be looking for a LHH catcher to complement either Ross or Lavarnway. (the SHness of Swihart at a predominantly RHH position is one of his greatest assets btw. He has reverse splits this year, but the sample size is pretty small.) That basically means Pyrzynski which isn't a bad backup plan. But I'd rather sign Salty assuming that he doesn't get an outrageous offer.
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Post by jmei on Sept 5, 2013 11:23:38 GMT -5
Brian McCann is also a lefty, while Dioner Navarro (having an out-of-nowhere great season) is a switch-hitter (although he's been much better versus lefties over his career).
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Post by elguapo on Sept 5, 2013 11:34:06 GMT -5
Ruiz is having an awful year at age 34. Yes you could save $7M by signing him over Saltalamachia but you are taking the risk that he's done and will offer no value. With the Red Sox so far under the LT threshold, it's not a risk worth taking. Ruiz has put up offensive numbers this year ~~ equivalent to Salty's the past 2 years. If an extra $7M per and a longer contract and a draft pick is worth what may be a marginal upgrade, that argument can even more easily be applied to McCann over Salty.
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Post by jmei on Sept 5, 2013 11:40:15 GMT -5
Saltalamacchia vs. Ruiz, past three yearsReally comes down to whether you want to buy low on Ruiz (with the risk that 2013 was the beginning of a decline phase) or buy high on Saltalamacchia (with the hope that 2013 was the beginning of his peak years). Given their relative ages, Saltalamacchia is definitely the safer bet, but he'll cost a lot more. I wouldn't mind Ruiz, assuming that the excess payroll is spent intelligently elsewhere (i.e., a non-extravagant contract to Ellsbury or Choo). I still think the way to go is to offer the QO to Saltalamacchia and see how the market shakes out between McCann, Saltalamacchia, and Ruiz.
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Post by ray88h66 on Sept 5, 2013 11:43:59 GMT -5
Saltalamacchia vs. Ruiz, past three yearsReally comes down to whether you want to buy low on Ruiz (with the risk that 2013 was the beginning of a decline phase) or buy high on Saltalamacchia (with the hope that 2013 was the beginning of his peak years). Given their relative ages, Saltalamacchia is definitely the safer bet, but he'll cost a lot more. I wouldn't mind Ruiz, assuming that the excess payroll is spent intelligently elsewhere (i.e., a non-extravagant contract to Ellsbury or Choo). I still think the way to go is to offer the QO to Saltalamacchia and see how the market shakes out between McCann, Saltalamacchia, and Ruiz. [/b] Agree. My preference is McCann ,but have to see what the numbers are.
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Post by ray88h66 on Sept 5, 2013 11:44:13 GMT -5
double post
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 5, 2013 11:51:01 GMT -5
...I believe that Ellsbury represents a much greater loss than this community is willing to acknowledge. I fully expect Bradley to step in with positive defensive value, but I think offensively he'll be a liability for at least the first half of the season. I'll estimate a ceiling of 3 WAR... I think you're right about Ellsbury being missed to some extent. When he's getting on base, he's dangerous and really does set the table. But I also think the estimate for Bradley's overall value is low. He may very well bring 2+ WAR on the defensive side alone. As for the offense, I think it's more likely that we see the value at the beginning of the year rather than the end. That's been his MO over the two years he's been in the system. For whatever reason, perhaps because he works himself hard enough to tire out, he can really start out hot and then taper off. I know he didn't show that during the intermittent periods he was with the ML team. I just think that, given his past history, that's the more likely scenario. I can see his overall value around 4 WAR. His on-base percentage has been 100 points over his average and that was true even during his short stint with the Sox. And he does generate extra-base hits. A slugging percentage of .425-.450 in his first year is in the ballpark I think. So he could easily end up between .750 - .800 for the year. That's got some offensive value. One thing is for certain, he won't be the dynamic threat on the basepaths that Ellsbury is.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 5, 2013 11:56:43 GMT -5
This is inaccurate. I estimate that the Red Sox so far have $125M in commitments. Which leaves them $64M to spend. Your estimation above only adds up to $46M which would leave room to sign Ellsbury. But even so a couple of your assumptions are faulty. #1 The Sox have Tazawa, Breslow, Uehara, Miller, Morales and Dempster for the pen next year. They could conceivably sign a high risk high reward reliever like Crain, but where exactly are the Sox going to spend $10M on relievers? #2 The 1B free agent crop next year is terrible. None of those players are getting $15M unless someone goes all out for Loney. Further if you resign Ellsbury and put Bradley in LF you can use the Carp, Nava, Gomes hydra to fill in at 1B for you. There's just no need to hope and pray that Lavarnway is a major league catcher just to save $10-$15M or so. You'll end up far under the tax cap and with possibly unacceptable alternatives at catcher. The luxury tax includes the 40 man roster. Not just the 25. Also includes; "The definition for "payroll" under the newest collective bargaining agreement is as follows: "Payrolls are for 40-man rosters and include averages of multiyear contracts; health and pension benefits; clubs medical costs; insurance; workman's compensation, payroll, unemployment and Social Security taxes; spring training allowances; meal and tip money; All-Star game expenses; travel and moving expenses; postseason pay; and college scholarships." Got my quote from Philly.com It's usually estimated about 10m the misc. expenses.
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Post by jdb on Sept 5, 2013 12:04:33 GMT -5
Again I wouldn't mind Ruiz but it is it really okay to compare stats from the prior three years? He will be 35 and more than likely regressing compared to Salty entering his prime and probably getting better. I could see AJ Pierzynski like another poster said.
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Post by raftsox on Sept 5, 2013 12:22:44 GMT -5
This is inaccurate. I estimate that the Red Sox so far have $125M in commitments. Which leaves them $64M to spend. Your estimation above only adds up to $46M which would leave room to sign Ellsbury. But even so a couple of your assumptions are faulty. #1 The Sox have Tazawa, Breslow, Uehara, Miller, Morales and Dempster for the pen next year. They could conceivably sign a high risk high reward reliever like Crain, but where exactly are the Sox going to spend $10M on relievers? #2 The 1B free agent crop next year is terrible. None of those players are getting $15M unless someone goes all out for Loney. Further if you resign Ellsbury and put Bradley in LF you can use the Carp, Nava, Gomes hydra to fill in at 1B for you. There's just no need to hope and pray that Lavarnway is a major league catcher just to save $10-$15M or so. You'll end up far under the tax cap and with possibly unacceptable alternatives at catcher. Sometimes you're entirely too detail oriented. Myers-Briggs INTP? I'm a borderline I/ENTP myself, so I understand where you're coming from. However, the point wasn't to say that those numbers are absolute; they're meant to be used conceptually. My greater point (as said in that post and one previous) was that the current state of ML catching is limited to a few elite catchers and a bunch of slightly better than replacement level catchers. Salty falls into the second group while someone like McCann or Mauer is in the first. I don't think losing Salty is a big deal since his value is not very high anyway. I prefer very much to improve the catching position through signing McCann or trading for Mauer. If neither of those happens then I am perfectly fine with Ross/? replacing Salty's likely 2014 2 WAR total. To expand on the points above a little bit which is outside of the scope of the 2014 catcher discussion, so please don't make this the crux of the discussion. 1B: I think the Red Sox will win the Abreau bid and he won't be cheap. RP: They always look for a high-risk injury return guy on a short term deal (Wilson?). Plus, Bailey's contract is in there somewhere for Arb3. I assume they don't cut him and go for the 60-day DL.
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