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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 7, 2013 23:35:44 GMT -5
I think Ellsbury will get something closer to 5/85 or 6/100, covering his age 30-34 or 35 seasons. I don't see him getting a 7-8 year contract. My guess is that the Red Sox would hold firm at 3-4 years max, with the idea that he will walk. Great points. Can't see the team valuing his services as much as Pedroia anyway. 3-4y, 5 max anywhere. Don't see any team going over 5 for him. Don't really see the Sox even looking at OF this off season, even if/when Ells walks, unless it's someone that can play 1b also and the team will rotate around. OF isn't anything the team really has a serious issue at. Morse perhaps, Beltran will get overpaid by someone, even with his bb rate at a career low (read that on some site) near 5% this season. Choo is yeat another Boras client (sans Beltran, Ells) who won't sign fast and probably will drag out negotiations, after Ells 7-8y contract offers fail to materialize. Boston this offseason IMO should focus on getting Uehara under terms for a couple more years, then seeing if a quick strike on Morse is plausible.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Aug 7, 2013 23:37:55 GMT -5
Unless I've missed something, there's a non-zero chance Kalish might be in the mix as well.
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Post by jmei on Aug 8, 2013 0:46:12 GMT -5
No, there really is a zero percent chance that Kalish affects the Red Sox plans for their 2014 outfield. Yes, there's a non-zero chance that he comes back healthy and productive (but there's also a non-zero chance that Michael Almanzar turns into Albert Pujols), but the Red Sox can't even pretend to factor in that teeny tiny possibility when deciding which free agents to pursue and such. As it is, there's a 95% chance he gets non-tendered this offseason, which is frankly the right move from my perspective.
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Post by jacob22 on Aug 8, 2013 0:53:15 GMT -5
I would stay away from Choo. Yes, he has a great OBP and is an above average corner outfielder, but he has hit a paltry .182 with zero homeruns against left handed pitching. Paying him what Boras will demand, plus draft pick compensation seems like a lot to pay for a player that is only a productive hitter against righties.
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Post by rider on Aug 8, 2013 0:56:08 GMT -5
I'll take a Carlos Beltran signing please
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Aug 8, 2013 8:24:53 GMT -5
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Post by jdb on Aug 8, 2013 8:27:22 GMT -5
I like Beltran as well but I think he gets a QO. I don't know how I'd feel giving up a first round pick for an older vet on a two year deal. He does have good neutral LHP vsRHP splits. I do think we will be much better vs LHP next year with Xander replacing Drew and probably going WMBs at 3B.
I think Hassan could be a factor. What if him and Nava platoon and hit leadoff since they have the on base skills?
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Post by qutennis5 on Aug 8, 2013 8:57:35 GMT -5
Ellsbury is not worth the big contract he will likely command. If the Yanks get out of having to pay Arod next year and save that $25M, they could be a player on Ellsbury. Ditto the Mets who have a poor OF and will have money to spend after being done paying Santana/Bay. Other than his cinderella 2011 season he has been nothing special offensively. Pass.
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Post by elguapo on Aug 8, 2013 9:21:06 GMT -5
In terms of roster construction & Hassan, a 2014 OF/1B combination of JBJ/Victorino + Nava/Gomes/Carp/Hassan - or a similar combination of players who provide flexibility at 1B & OF - would greatly reduce the need for OF depth (& 1B depth) at AAA on the 40-man roster.
And it is also helpful if at least one of the 1B/LF types (Nava, Hassan) has options to allow for a 13th pitcher if required.
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Post by jdb on Aug 8, 2013 9:42:09 GMT -5
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Post by randysox on Aug 8, 2013 9:51:50 GMT -5
Save the money, keep the prospects. Brentz needs to be given a shot to win the right field job. He is a right handed power hitter, young cost controlled. Above average arm. If he hits 260/310/480 with 130 strikeouts but with 25-30 homers and 80-100 rbis that would be a serious upgrade.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2013 10:27:54 GMT -5
Save the money, keep the prospects. Brentz needs to be given a shot to win the right field job. He is a right handed power hitter, young cost controlled. Above average arm. If he hits 260/310/480 with 130 strikeouts but with 25-30 homers and 80-100 rbis that would be a serious upgrade. He really can't do that though. Against AA pitching he struck out 130 times in only 453 ABs. You are talking about him getting better against far superior pitching. How is that going to happen? He's not a very good OF either. At best you are talking about Brentz being the right handed half of a platoon should something happen to Gomes, or the guy who comes up when Victorino inevitably gets hurt.
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Post by mattpicard on Aug 8, 2013 11:16:03 GMT -5
Save the money, keep the prospects. Brentz needs to be given a shot to win the right field job. He is a right handed power hitter, young cost controlled. Above average arm. If he hits 260/310/480 with 130 strikeouts but with 25-30 homers and 80-100 rbis that would be a serious upgrade. He really can't do that though. Against AA pitching he struck out 130 times in only 453 ABs. You are talking about him getting better against far superior pitching. How is that going to happen? He's not a very good OF either. At best you are talking about Brentz being the right handed half of a platoon should something happen to Gomes, or the guy who comes up when Victorino inevitably gets hurt. This. I'm really not a fan of the "Brentz needs a shot" arguments when it's hard to tell how he'd upgrade much of anything. We seem to have CF and RF set for the next couple of years (whether CF is JBJ or Ellsbury), and unless you're trying to dump Gomes, something I find highly unlikely to happen, Brentz has no place with the team. I'm not sure he'd even be better than Gomes, as he certainly lacks his plate discipline, and leadership qualities if you're into that sort of thing when evaluating players. His defense is better, sure, but it's nothing special. Nava/Carp/Gomes in LF is going to provide better production than Brentz, any day.
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Post by jhenrywaugh, prop. on Aug 8, 2013 12:28:09 GMT -5
I would stay away from Choo. Yes, he has a great OBP and is an above average corner outfielder, but he has hit a paltry .182 with zero homeruns against left handed pitching. Paying him what Boras will demand, plus draft pick compensation seems like a lot to pay for a player that is only a productive hitter against righties. Great point. I'm ashamed to say I've not dug into his splits. That's a big gap, and it's consistent with his career stats.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Aug 8, 2013 13:19:32 GMT -5
Save the money, keep the prospects. Brentz needs to be given a shot to win the right field job. He is a right handed power hitter, young cost controlled. Above average arm. If he hits 260/310/480 with 130 strikeouts but with 25-30 homers and 80-100 rbis that would be a serious upgrade. So he's a poor man's Wil Myers? Brentz may actually have a good season or two in the majors but I don't think he's the answer. I know that Ellsbury will be asking for Crawford money by all accounts and the Sox won't be paying that. I'd like to see if the Sox were the team that claimed Rios but I think it was the Pirates. He would be a good player in LF that would complement Bradley and Victorino. Provided of course it's just another salary dump.
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Post by bjb406 on Aug 8, 2013 13:41:52 GMT -5
I would rather have Brentz or Hassan going forward than Nava. Nava has regressed every month and is already 30. If we don't get an upgrade in the offseason, I would expect him to lose a spring training battle next year. Brentz might not be 'the answer', but he is a strong option. That said we have more upper minors pitching depth than we could every play, and LF is probably easier to upgrade via trade that 1b. Looking at what might be out there, Stanton? Kemp? Bautista?
also, you say its ridiculous for Brentz's strikeout rate from LAST year to improve against better pitching, well it already has this year against better pitching in AAA, and neither rate is bad enough that he can't be an above average player.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2013 14:17:51 GMT -5
The jump from AA to AAA and the jump from AAA to the majors are not comparable. The main difference between AA and AAA is pitchers with more experience and command. Though many of those AAA pitchers are AAAA types who don't have the stuff to compete in the majors.
Even so the improvement you are talking about is significant over significantly better pitching. It's not going to happen.
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Post by Deleted on Aug 8, 2013 14:46:35 GMT -5
One more thing on Brentz. Scouting reports indicate that he has trouble with breaking pitches and always has. K/BB ratio indicates this as well. To be an everyday RF in the majors, you need to recognize breaking balls. Good power though, more of a poor man's Josh Reddick than Will Meyers.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 11, 2013 20:32:51 GMT -5
1B and LF are some serious needs. LF I'm not too worried about but I am very concerned with 1B. Might need to trade one of our better pitchers to fix that.
Dempster probably won't even make the rotation next year. I don't see the Sox paying $12.5M for him as a reliever.
So that means the Sox could either sell low on him or try and sell high on someone like Doubront or Lackey depending on the return they could get for him.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 11, 2013 20:45:50 GMT -5
Leftfield and first base are the two positions where the team can seriously upgrade this winter. There is a decent platoon available in left. The problem is that there is no real available free agent upgrade at first base. There are good left fielders available in free agency. If you can trade for a first baseman (Matt Adams, is my pipe dream), I would be fine rolling with Gomes/Nava/Carp.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Aug 28, 2013 6:58:51 GMT -5
Victorino's switch-hitting platoon splits, 2011-2013 weighted 3-4-5 (as in many projection systems):
.253 / .313 / .386 vs. RHP (1121 PA) .317 / .390 / .536 vs. LHP (482 PA)
Well, there's never been a RHB with a platoon split remotely that big. In fact, there is sabermetric research that says that platoon splits for RHB are generally far more restricted than those for LHB, and tend to regress to the norm much more than those of LHB.
And what is the norm? MLB hitting by RHB the last three years, weighted the same way:
.250 / .308 / .390 vs. RHP .262 / .328 / .419 vs. LHP
(The second line includes switch hitters, but I don't believe it's that big a confound, given the contrast with the above.)
Based on that average split, you get this:
.305 / .369 / .507, projected line of Victorino as RHB vs. RHP .293 / .396 / .488, actual line in 48 PA this year
This is not to say that he'll either keep this up, or match the projected line. But at the same time there's now two separate lines of evidence or reason that say he will obviously hit RHP better as a RHB than as a LHB, and probably much better.
He said in today's Globe that he plans to return to switch-hitting as soon as he's able. He should be talked out of this promptly.
If he can be persuaded to hit RHB the rest of the year and continues to do well (or needs to hit RHB and can be ultimately convinced to continue), that certainly affects 2014. There would be no point to sitting him versus many RHP, which could otherwise be in the cards. That means that an OF that that contained both Ellsbury and Bradley would be less useful than currently imagined, as there would be a lot less PT for Bradley should they re-sign Ellsbury. You would, I think, essentially platoon Bradley, Nava, and Gomes at one position, with Bradley playing on the road (either in LF, or in CF with Ellsbury in LF), and Nava and Gomes platooning in LF at Fenway. JBJ would still be great depth should there be any injuries to Ellsbury or Victorino, however.
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Post by okin15 on Aug 28, 2013 15:50:59 GMT -5
Really no reason JBJ couldn't continue to be depth at AAA if he's not going to be a ton (if any) better than the alternatives in Boston. I don't disagree with any of the other notions though, and maybe that's what you're getting at anyway.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 28, 2013 17:12:48 GMT -5
1B and LF are some serious needs. LF I'm not too worried about but I am very concerned with 1B. Might need to trade one of our better pitchers to fix that. Dempster probably won't even make the rotation next year. I don't see the Sox paying $12.5M for him as a reliever. So that means the Sox could either sell low on him or try and sell high on someone like Doubront or Lackey depending on the return they could get for him. Apologies DCSoxfan for digging this old post of yours out and bringing it up. I agree with attempting to move Dempster over the winter back to the NL to any NL team where he has had success throughout his career. Boston mad the mistake of signing an aging junkball pitcher and it hasn't worked out, however he still has 2-3 years as a decent SP left in him in the NL. The team will just have to take a nothing player in return from some team that is desperate for starting pitching and be thankful that there is nothing available via FA this year. They *should* be able to get away with not paying any of his remaining 13.5m for 2014.
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danr
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Post by danr on Aug 28, 2013 17:45:48 GMT -5
I don't think Dempster should be starting now. I think Workman would be better.
Victorino should keep hitting righthanded as long as he is hitting like he is now.
I think Bradley hasn't made a strong case to be a starting OF for the Sox next year. I hope the Sox re-sign Ellsbury.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Aug 28, 2013 18:35:12 GMT -5
I think Bradley hasn't made a strong case to be a starting OF for the Sox next year. I hope the Sox re-sign Ellsbury. I have seen this said several times and I have to wonder what exactly are people hoping to see? As a 23 year old in AAA Bradley has posted a .276/.376/.478 triple slash with an excellent walk rate, a decent k rate, plus plus defense in center field, and above average speed.
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