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Post by Chris Hatfield on Apr 14, 2014 12:49:43 GMT -5
One wonders, in that case, what happens with the Ortiz extension.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 14, 2014 14:18:45 GMT -5
I don't understand this "winning bid" stuff. Wasn't Abreu a free agent? I'm sure he probably didn't want to get stuck in AAA if the Red Sox signed him so I imagine it doesn't matter that much if they submitted a "winning bid".
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Post by jmei on Apr 14, 2014 15:11:20 GMT -5
I don't understand this "winning bid" stuff. Wasn't Abreu a free agent? I'm sure he probably didn't want to get stuck in AAA if the Red Sox signed him so I imagine it doesn't matter that much if they submitted a "winning bid". His agents basically made it an auction process, but for whatever reason, they wanted final offers in before the end of the World Series. It's been speculated that maybe the Red Sox would have submitted a higher offer had Abreu waited a few weeks to sign.
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Post by oilcansman on Apr 14, 2014 15:18:56 GMT -5
I don't understand this "winning bid" stuff. Wasn't Abreu a free agent? I'm sure he probably didn't want to get stuck in AAA if the Red Sox signed him so I imagine it doesn't matter that much if they submitted a "winning bid". His agents basically made it an auction process, but for whatever reason, they wanted final offers in before the end of the World Series. It's been speculated that maybe the Red Sox would have submitted a higher offer had Abreu waited a few weeks to sign. The agents did a great job of generating an auction. Deadlines and auctions can create a frenzy. Why would the Sox have sent in a bigger bid later?
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Post by jmei on Apr 14, 2014 18:15:24 GMT -5
His agents basically made it an auction process, but for whatever reason, they wanted final offers in before the end of the World Series. It's been speculated that maybe the Red Sox would have submitted a higher offer had Abreu waited a few weeks to sign. The agents did a great job of generating an auction. Deadlines and auctions can create a frenzy. Why would the Sox have sent in a bigger bid later? The Red Sox were playing in the World Series at the time, with Mike Napoli as a pending free agent. Signing Abreu (who would presumably have been Napoli's replacement) thus had a negative externality of likely upsetting team chemistry or at the very least being a distraction at an inopportune time. If final bids were due, say, a week after the World Series had ended, this negative cost would have gone away, which might have encouraged the Red Sox to submit a higher bid.
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 25, 2014 23:29:56 GMT -5
“@mlbonfox: WALKOFF GRAND SLAM!!! JOSE ABREU!!
The @whitesox defeat the Rays 9-6.”
Dude is on fire.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 25, 2014 23:36:53 GMT -5
“@mlbonfox: Jose Abreu has 9 HRs & 27 RBI.
It's his first year in MLB. #WhiteSox”
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Post by wskeleton76 on Apr 26, 2014 1:41:44 GMT -5
He is great. His opp field power is amazing.
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Post by burythehammer on Apr 26, 2014 7:40:43 GMT -5
Nice player. Not a superstar. Nothing to lose sleep over.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Apr 26, 2014 8:39:28 GMT -5
If you think too hard about Abreu and what could have been you'll end up like one of those old guys who still to this day cry themselves to sleep with thoughts of Jeff Bagwell. I'm guessing not. I immediately wondered whether his hot start was an unfamiliarity effect -- the result of the league not having a book on him at all. .288 / .367 / .788 (60 PA), facing a pitcher the first time in a game .233 / .298 / .442 (47 PA), facing a pitcher who has already faced him that game And of course the league split is in the opposite direction. Not cherry picking; this is the only split of his I've looked at.
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 27, 2014 15:04:25 GMT -5
another homer…. Wonder what happens when a book comes out on him… Will teams adjust
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Post by godot on Apr 27, 2014 20:26:54 GMT -5
He can't continue at this rate, but he is legit and would rake at Fenway. His taters are high and long, and he also has great opposite field power. Feel he is legit because he has great plate coverage and good lower body balance and control. The other Sox were willing to pay the price. Our Sox do not roll that way and have a "plan". What are the odds of them developing a right handed hitter like him?
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 28, 2014 5:22:11 GMT -5
"One talent evaluator said Abreu could step into a big league lineup tomorrow and hit .260 with 25 home runs." Yeah it is really easy now to cite one talent evaluator who said he is MLB-ready and ignore dozens of talent evaluators who said it's completely unclear whether his skills would translate and he might be a total bust.
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Post by bluechip on Apr 28, 2014 5:32:45 GMT -5
The agents did a great job of generating an auction. Deadlines and auctions can create a frenzy. Why would the Sox have sent in a bigger bid later? The Red Sox were playing in the World Series at the time, with Mike Napoli as a pending free agent. Signing Abreu (who would presumably have been Napoli's replacement) thus had a negative externality of likely upsetting team chemistry or at the very least being a distraction at an inopportune time. If final bids were due, say, a week after the World Series had ended, this negative cost would have gone away, which might have encouraged the Red Sox to submit a higher bid. I agree with all of this. The Red Sox may not have postured that Abreu will start in AAA if they didn't need to worry about team chemistry.
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Post by iakovos11 on Apr 28, 2014 7:26:26 GMT -5
It is puzzling why Abreu/his agents weren't willing to wait a week or two for final bids. They had to figure there would be high likelihood of the Sox bidding higher after the WS ended. It could have paid off with more dollars for their client (and them).
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Post by godot on Apr 28, 2014 7:37:06 GMT -5
It is puzzling why Abreu/his agents weren't willing to wait a week or two for final bids. They had to figure there would be high likelihood of the Sox bidding higher after the WS ended. It could have paid off with more dollars for their client (and them). Maybe they believed the Sox were not going to up their bid. Sox are usually clear about their intentions on what they will pay.
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Post by iakovos11 on Apr 28, 2014 7:43:32 GMT -5
It is puzzling why Abreu/his agents weren't willing to wait a week or two for final bids. They had to figure there would be high likelihood of the Sox bidding higher after the WS ended. It could have paid off with more dollars for their client (and them). Maybe they believed the Sox were not going to up their bid. Sox are usually clear about their intentions on what they will pay. That's quite possible. And the only explanation I can think of.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 28, 2014 8:56:06 GMT -5
He can't continue at this rate, but he is legit and would rake at Fenway. His taters are high and long, and he also has great opposite field power. Feel he is legit because he has great plate coverage and good lower body balance and control. The other Sox were willing to pay the price. Our Sox do not roll that way and have a "plan". What are the odds of them developing a right handed hitter like him? Probably equal to the chance they have in not signing Drew.
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Post by jmei on Apr 28, 2014 9:36:10 GMT -5
Mike Napoli: .304/.396/.533, 156 wRC+ Jose Abreu: .262/.330/.631, 152 wRC+
Not signing Jose Abreu is not exactly the biggest problem this team is dealing with.
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Post by godot on Apr 28, 2014 9:56:40 GMT -5
No, but he would help down the line. Do they have any viable right handed power in the system? Regardless, they weren't going to spend the money and seem to have the philosophy of building a team through many good parts, and also good soar parts. High price dudes need not apply.
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Post by jmei on Apr 28, 2014 10:18:32 GMT -5
Um, they lost the Abreu sweepstakes by roughly $5m, even though signing him would have been a problematic storyline in the middle of the World Series.
The issue is not that they are unwilling to sign high-priced free agents (see, e.g., $16m a year for Mike Napoli). The issue is that they're unwilling to commit to long-term deals, because those deals almost universally contain huge pockets of dead money during their last few years. For a team that will pretty much always spend up to the luxury tax limit each year (but looks like it will rarely spend more than the limit), that makes sense-- it means those future teams won't be hamstrung by unproductive but expensive veterans, just like the 2012 Red Sox were.
Now, there's an argument to be made that the Red Sox should have considered softening that stance against long-term deals for guys like Abreu and Tanaka who are much younger than most domestic free agents. But it's also true that Abreu/Tanaka came with unique risks of their own, and it's mostly hindsight to say that they were no-doubt slam dunks and the front office was just being stingy.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 28, 2014 10:18:45 GMT -5
No, but he would help down the line. Do they have any viable right handed power in the system? Regardless, they weren't going to spend the money and seem to have the philosophy of building a team through many good parts, and also good soar parts. High price dudes need not apply. FWIW there was a report in the last 10 days that was referenced on MLB Trade Rumors that Sox came in all of $5M short over the length of the deal - $833K a year over 6 years - which is less than a team typically pays an MLB mop-up reliever on average - AND were going to sign Napoli, so, yes, they were going to spend the money. They will also be kicking themselves if they came in a million short for a young RH batter in a position of need if he averages 25-30HRs a year at $11.33M a year ($12.33 a year if Sox had offered that extra 6 mil to get themselves ahead of Chicago).
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Post by Guidas on Apr 28, 2014 10:21:00 GMT -5
Um, they lost the Abreu sweepstakes by roughly $5m, even though signing him would have been a problematic storyline in the middle of the World Series. The issue is not that they are unwilling to sign high-priced free agents (see, e.g., $16m a year for Mike Napoli). The issue is that they're unwilling to commit to long-term deals, because those deals almost universally contain huge pockets of dead money during their last few years. For a team that will pretty much always spend up to the luxury tax limit each year (but looks like it will rarely spend more than the limit), that makes sense-- it means those future teams won't be hamstrung by unproductive but expensive veterans, just like the 2012 Red Sox were. Now, there's an argument to be made that the Red Sox should have considered softening that stance against long-term deals for guys like Abreu and Tanaka who are much younger than most domestic free agents. But it's also true that Abreu/Tanaka came with unique risks of their own, and it's mostly hindsight to say that they were no-doubt slam dunks and the front office was just being stingy. True to this, but what free agents are this? Risk/reward. That's how most of these owners became billionaires. Your World Series point is valid too, though, I am sure for an extra $1M they could've kept the lid on this until after.
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Post by jmei on Apr 28, 2014 10:30:25 GMT -5
FWIW there was a report in the last 10 days that was referenced on MLB Trade Rumors that Sox came in all of $5M short over the length of the deal - $833K a year over 6 years - which is less than a team typically pays an MLB mop-up reliever on average - AND were going to sign Napoli, so, yes, they were going to spend the money. I don't believe for a second that they were going to give Abreu $63m but then also re-sign Napoli. There's basically zero chance that they'd stick an MLB-ready guy that they spent that amount of money on in the minors while re-signing a guy with some red flags in Napoli at market rates. I think that's purely spin to make the fact that they were deeply in the Abreu bidding seem less insulting to World Series hero Mike Napoli. I think the Red Sox bid what they did because they thought that if they were getting Abreu cheap enough, it was worth whatever hubbub that signing him might create. But once the bidding got higher (and perhaps thought the White Sox were willing to push it even higher than $68m if there was another comparable bidder), they backed out because the total costs (monetary and chemistry/PR-wise) started to outweigh the anticipated benefit. Either that, or Abreu's camp insisted on basically a sealed bid auction (though why would they do that?) and the front office fell just a bit short.
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Post by jmei on Apr 28, 2014 10:36:49 GMT -5
Um, they lost the Abreu sweepstakes by roughly $5m, even though signing him would have been a problematic storyline in the middle of the World Series. The issue is not that they are unwilling to sign high-priced free agents (see, e.g., $16m a year for Mike Napoli). The issue is that they're unwilling to commit to long-term deals, because those deals almost universally contain huge pockets of dead money during their last few years. For a team that will pretty much always spend up to the luxury tax limit each year (but looks like it will rarely spend more than the limit), that makes sense-- it means those future teams won't be hamstrung by unproductive but expensive veterans, just like the 2012 Red Sox were. Now, there's an argument to be made that the Red Sox should have considered softening that stance against long-term deals for guys like Abreu and Tanaka who are much younger than most domestic free agents. But it's also true that Abreu/Tanaka came with unique risks of their own, and it's mostly hindsight to say that they were no-doubt slam dunks and the front office was just being stingy. True to this, but what free agents are this? Risk/reward. That's how most of these owners became billionaires. Your World Series point is valid too, though, I am sure for an extra $1M they could've kept the lid on this until after. Yeah, but those guys had unique risks that most free agents don't have. It's really tough to evaluate a guy when he's only faced vastly inferior competition, something that is especially true for hitters. Wily Mo Pena would look like a demi-god if you only saw him play in the low minors, but he couldn't adjust to major-league quality breaking/offspeed pitches. Similar criticisms were levied against Abreu (i.e., that he couldn't handle major-league quality inside fastballs), and though that doesn't look like the case so far, it means that Abreu had much more risk than a comparable domestic free agent. ADD: speaking of which, all but a couple of Abreu's home runs have come on pitches on the outer half of the plate. It'll be interesting to see how he adjusts to pitchers pitching him in more as the season goes on and scouting reports are updated.
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