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Sign Jose Dariel Abreu? (10/17 update: signing with CWS)
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Post by charliezink16 on Aug 12, 2013 14:49:26 GMT -5
Bradley, CF (with Abreu aboard the Sox wouldn't be able to re-sign Ellsbury) Curious, why wouldn't we be able to re-sign Ellsbury if we signed Abreu? From the numbers I'm looking at, this couldn't be further from the truth. Wanting him back and being able to bring him back ($) are two different things. Because you want flexibility with your cap space. W/o it, you wouldn't be able to go out and aCquire a Peavy type at the deadline while picking up salary. And getting tied up in long term contracts isn't the way to manage a salary. Just ask the 2011 Red Sox or 2013 Yankees. If we had sufficient cap space in the 2011 offseason, Darvish was ours. If you sign Abreu, Ells is not someone you waste your money on when you have a ML capable prospect waiting in the wings in Bradley. Thats my opinion on the matter.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 12, 2013 14:53:27 GMT -5
Ellsbury won't come back because he's gonna get a big contract from someone else that the Red Sox won't want to match. It will have nothing to do with whether or not they sign Abreu imo.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 12, 2013 14:54:36 GMT -5
Curious, why wouldn't we be able to re-sign Ellsbury if we signed Abreu? From the numbers I'm looking at, this couldn't be further from the truth. Wanting him back and being able to bring him back ($) are two different things. Because you want flexibility with your cap space. W/o it, you wouldn't be able to go out and aCquire a Peavy type at the deadline while picking up salary. And getting tied up in long term contracts isn't the way to manage a salary. Just ask the 2011 Red Sox or 2013 Yankees. If we had sufficient cap space in the 2011 offseason, Darvish was ours. If you sign Abreu, Ells is not someone you waste your money on when you have a ML capable prospect waiting in the wings in Bradley. Thats my opinion on the matter. Whether or not Ellsbury is worth it when Bradley is here for cheap is a different matter. The 2015 luxury tax limit raises significantly, so I would be less concerned about the the money invested seeing as their will be so much more that can be sent the following year. If they're going to spend, this is probably the off-season to do it (the Yankees won't be sitting on the sidelines in 2014/2015)
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 12, 2013 14:57:55 GMT -5
I am thinking he might get a four year deal like Cepedes. Maybe 60/4. That will give him the freedom to get another big contract when he is 31. It will also protect the team against a long term investment. Can anyone explain this rule? 'Article XX(B)' which allows a player to become a free agent prior to a 6 year commitment. Is this strictly for international free agents signed to major league contracts?
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Post by ray88h66 on Aug 12, 2013 14:58:58 GMT -5
I think Ellsbury is a non issue here. Unless Victorino runs him over in the last two months someone will offer him a huge deal. The sox get a draft pick and move on.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 12, 2013 15:04:21 GMT -5
If he's in Haiti it may be quicker.
I seem to recall that a few teams are about to get big TV deals in the next year or so, as well, so the playing field may not be as semi-clear as some are opining. Besides which there is less elite power than elite pitching in baseball right now so that incentive may be worth breaking the bank for a few others.
So let's say teams with and potential need and the cash to spend $12-14M a year X 6 years on a 26 yr old 1st baseman/DH with 30+HR power - Boston, Texas, Atlanta, NY Mets, Seattle, Houston, St Louis, Baltimore (if they want to rotate him and Davis through DH, 1st), Minnesota., Chicago WS, Washington, and maybe even Pittsburgh if they want to spend some cash.
And, I should add, NYY, esp if they re-calibrate their lux tax situation with an ARod suspension.
Anyone else?
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Post by wcsoxfan on Aug 12, 2013 15:07:56 GMT -5
If he's in Haiti it may be quicker. I seem to recall that a few teams are about to get big TV deals in the next year or so, as well, so the playing field may not be as semi-clear as some are opining. Besides which there is less elite power than elite pitching in baseball right now so that incentive may be worth breaking the bank for a few others. So let's say teams with and potential need and the cash to spend $12-14M a year X 6 years on a 26 yr old 1st baseman/DH with 30+HR power - Boston, Texas, Atlanta, NY Mets, Seattle, Houston, St Louis, Baltimore (if they want to rotate him and Davis through DH, 1st), Minnesota., Chicago WS, Washington, and maybe even Pittsburgh if they want to spend some cash. And, I should add, NYY, esp if they re-calibrate their lux tax situation with an ARod suspension. Anyone else? I think there are a couple of teams from the California Penal league that you missed
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 12, 2013 15:18:07 GMT -5
If he's in Haiti it may be quicker. I seem to recall that a few teams are about to get big TV deals in the next year or so, as well, so the playing field may not be as semi-clear as some are opining. Besides which there is less elite power than elite pitching in baseball right now so that incentive may be worth breaking the bank for a few others. So let's say teams with and potential need and the cash to spend $12-14M a year X 6 years on a 26 yr old 1st baseman/DH with 30+HR power - Boston, Texas, Atlanta, NY Mets, Seattle, Houston, St Louis, Baltimore (if they want to rotate him and Davis through DH, 1st), Minnesota., Chicago WS, Washington, and maybe even Pittsburgh if they want to spend some cash. And, I should add, NYY, esp if they re-calibrate their lux tax situation with an ARod suspension. Anyone else? I went through it in my head last night talking about potential bidders and I came up with the same sort of teams of your list. I didn't see Atl (Freddy Freeman, non DH league) or Houston because I don't think they'll the finances to jump into this. Its way early for all of this. Scouts will have their say and I'm sure not all will be willing to jump in the fray.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 12, 2013 15:24:30 GMT -5
Curious, why wouldn't we be able to re-sign Ellsbury if we signed Abreu? From the numbers I'm looking at, this couldn't be further from the truth. Wanting him back and being able to bring him back ($) are two different things. Because you want flexibility with your cap space. W/o it, you wouldn't be able to go out and aCquire a Peavy type at the deadline while picking up salary. And getting tied up in long term contracts isn't the way to manage a salary. Just ask the 2011 Red Sox or 2013 Yankees. If we had sufficient cap space in the 2011 offseason, Darvish was ours. If you sign Abreu, Ells is not someone you waste your money on when you have a ML capable prospect waiting in the wings in Bradley. Thats my opinion on the matter. Couldn't agree more.
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Post by borisman on Aug 12, 2013 15:34:44 GMT -5
If he's in Haiti it may be quicker. I seem to recall that a few teams are about to get big TV deals in the next year or so, as well, so the playing field may not be as semi-clear as some are opining. Besides which there is less elite power than elite pitching in baseball right now so that incentive may be worth breaking the bank for a few others. So let's say teams with and potential need and the cash to spend $12-14M a year X 6 years on a 26 yr old 1st baseman/DH with 30+HR power - Boston, Texas, Atlanta, NY Mets, Seattle, Houston, St Louis, Baltimore (if they want to rotate him and Davis through DH, 1st), Minnesota., Chicago WS, Washington, and maybe even Pittsburgh if they want to spend some cash. And, I should add, NYY, esp if they re-calibrate their lux tax situation with an ARod suspension. Anyone else? Just read this on BA. Not saying it's a fact, but just saying: Abreu, a 26-year-old first baseman, has played professionally in Cuba since the 2003-04 season, so he will be able to sign as a free agent exempt from the international signing bonus pools, with a massive major league contract likely headed his way. That process could still take several months. Abreu will have to establish residency in another country, have Major League Baseball declare him a free agent and the U.S. government’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) clear him to sign, but interest in Abreu should be fierce and should have a major impact on this offseason’s free agent market. rest of article: www.baseballamerica.com/majors/cuban-star-jose-abreu-leaves-cuba/
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 12, 2013 15:42:24 GMT -5
You can find a lot of hr vids on the web but to my untrained eye it looks like they are all on batting practice fastballs or a-ball curves. This is a serious scouting challenge though exciting if the verdict is thumbs up. Hard to imagine who else has our combination of need, money and cap space Just listened to the BA podcast. Most of the Cuban players do not have experience hitting against 90+ mph fastballs. Some salient points: 1. He's limited defensively. He's not a guy you can stick in LF. He's really a 1B/DH only. 2. Scouts are split on Abreu in terms of whether he can make the adjustment to MLB pitching. A team is going to need to be committed, from a scouting perspective, to Abreu in order to spend the money. Abreu does not have elite bat speed but hits more with strength. He also has a timing tap that could be an issue. 3. People should not think he's going to come in and dominate immediately. Look at Cespedes' second year. Look at Morales' ramp-up period. If you're expecting the next Yasiel Puig, prepare to be disappointed. I think the three obvious candidates to land Abreu are BOS, TEX and PIT, assuming they're high on him from a scouting perspective. Because of his defensive limitations, I don't see the price near Puig; probably closer to Cespedes (4/36).
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 12, 2013 15:47:03 GMT -5
So let's say teams with and potential need and the cash to spend $12-14M a year X 6 years on a 26 yr old 1st baseman/DH with 30+HR power - Boston, Texas, Atlanta, NY Mets, Seattle, Houston, St Louis, Baltimore (if they want to rotate him and Davis through DH, 1st), Minnesota., Chicago WS, Washington, and maybe even Pittsburgh if they want to spend some cash. And, I should add, NYY, esp if they re-calibrate their lux tax situation with an ARod suspension. I think you can knock out most NL teams because he may not stick at 1B. I would strike ATL, NYM, STL and MIN; they are unlikely to bid. I'd keep WAS and PIT from the NL. I don't see MFY getting in, with Tex and Jeter clogging up 1B/DH for the near future. SEA is not a fit. I'd view HOU and BAL as longshots. That leaves CWS, BOS, TEX, WAS and PIT as my top five.
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Post by borisman on Aug 12, 2013 15:48:05 GMT -5
The Sox won't pay him more than Pedey or Ortiz (yes, I know he's no longer in his prime, like Abreu) so forget the big contract for this guy...from the Sox anyways.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 12, 2013 16:02:56 GMT -5
There will also be some front office calculus as to whether he is worth the investment vs. trading a package for Stanton, a know quantity, if he is made avail - and with only 2 years left and Giancarlo not being enamored with Miami/Loria enough to likely sign an extension, it seems like the perfect winter for a mega-deal. Abreu may only cost money, but Stanton is established in the league, and if he could be acquired without giving up Xander those two could make for a formidable 3-4 power combination for several years to come.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 12, 2013 16:19:30 GMT -5
Bradley, CF (with Abreu aboard the Sox wouldn't be able to re-sign Ellsbury) Curious, why wouldn't we be able to re-sign Ellsbury if we signed Abreu? From the numbers I'm looking at, this couldn't be further from the truth. Wanting him back and being able to bring him back ($) are two different things. CharlieZink16 nailed my point beautifully. Could they do it? Sure? Do they want to lose flexibility by closing in on the cap number? Probably not. Are the two linked directly. Probaby not, but I think it would make the Sox less likely to really overpay to re-sign Ellsbury if they got into a mega-bidding war to sign Abreu. With the money that guys like Puig, Cespedes, and Darvish have gotten, I suspect that seeing that success raises the bar of what it would cost to get Abreu. I think $10 - $12 million/year is a conservative estimate and even that probably won't do the trick. It wouldn't shock me to see the guy get $100 million. You add $16 - $17 million/year to your payroll, it lessens the ease of going full blast to try to re-sign Ellsbury, not that throwing $100 million Ellsbury's way guarantees that he re-signs. Anyways, getting back to Abreu, another benefit to signing this guy is that he's a prime age free agent who would not require forfeiting a draft pick. I know that's kind of obvious, but that's a huge thing. If (again I know it's a big if) this guy is as good as the younger Ryan Howard comparison, then how often can you sign a guy like that thru free agency and not surrender a draft pick? One other thing, getting back to need, I have no doubt that Texas could use a 1b, but the Sox have a glaring need too. I doubt the Sox think that Napoli's OBP will hold up next year given his Ks and high BABIP, and I doubt the Sox think that Carp will be as productive as he's been this year. They know they don't have a long-term solution at 1b and barring a move of Cecchini to 1b, they don't have any potential solutions in the farm system and the free agent options are not encouraging, and if it was it would probably require sacrificing a draft pick - this is the guy to go all out for.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,948
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Post by jimoh on Aug 12, 2013 16:20:37 GMT -5
The Sox won't pay him more than Pedey or Ortiz (yes, I know he's no longer in his prime, like Abreu) so forget the big contract for this guy...from the Sox anyways. The Red Sox are going to pay Peavy, Lackey, Dempster and Victorino more than "Pedey or Ortiz" in 2014. They are probably going to pay Napoli more in 2013 than they will pay Pedroia or Ortiz in 2014.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,948
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Post by jimoh on Aug 12, 2013 16:24:29 GMT -5
You add $16 - $17 million/year to your payroll, it lessens the ease of going full blast to try to re-sign Ellsbury, not that throwing $100 million Ellsbury's way guarantees that he re-signs. ... But whoever plays 1b will get paid next year. Only the rather dubious Carp-Hassan platoon would be cheap. So you're not adding $16-17M, you're replacing Napoli's likely $14M this year with whatever you sign Abreu for--which could be less than $14M.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 12, 2013 16:34:12 GMT -5
The Sox won't pay him more than Pedey or Ortiz (yes, I know he's no longer in his prime, like Abreu) so forget the big contract for this guy...from the Sox anyways. I am betting that Pedroia will not be the highest paid player on this team three or four years from now. They may not give anyone a larger contract this offseason, and they may try to avoid contracts exceeding four years, but I cannot see them holding back forever.
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Post by bjb406 on Aug 12, 2013 16:39:02 GMT -5
I think all the salary numbers in this thread are aiming too high. Lets remember this guy has been facing Cuban pitchers, many of which would not make it to full season ball in the states, and the one scouting report we have seen (BA) questions how well his numbers will translate. He is not going to get 15 million a year as an unathletic first basemen with questions about his bat speed. Im not saying don't go after him, but the investment comes with risk and that will be reflected in his contract.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 12, 2013 16:43:53 GMT -5
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Post by ray88h66 on Aug 12, 2013 16:47:56 GMT -5
I've seen several posts in here about resigning Ellsbury. I don't get it. I can only remember 3 guys that kept their speed into their mid 30's. Henderson, Ichiro, and Brock. I may have missed someone but the numbers are low. Am I wrong that speed is his best tool? I guess if you think he'll sign for 2 or 3 years it makes sense but I don't see it.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 12, 2013 16:56:38 GMT -5
I didn't know this dude existed until the report he defected, but an 80 hr pace over 162 games? If he performed half as good in the mlb he would hit 40 hrs. There also is the hole at first base. We are not going to have a cheap option there unless we go with carp, so I don't think of it as a 15m per year deal, I think of it as 2m more than Napoli deal, which is nothing. Someone suggested a cepedes deal, 4 year 36 mil right? (on mobile or I'd look it up). I would make that commitment this second if available. Anything in the 10-12 AAV seems more than reasonable. The way I read it is his stat line would be like Chris davis if his skills translate over.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 12, 2013 17:01:59 GMT -5
You can find a lot of hr vids on the web but to my untrained eye it looks like they are all on batting practice fastballs or a-ball curves. This is a serious scouting challenge though exciting if the verdict is thumbs up. Hard to imagine who else has our combination of need, money and cap space Just listened to the BA podcast. Most of the Cuban players do not have experience hitting against 90+ mph fastballs. Some salient points: 1. He's limited defensively. He's not a guy you can stick in LF. He's really a 1B/DH only. 2. Scouts are split on Abreu in terms of whether he can make the adjustment to MLB pitching. A team is going to need to be committed, from a scouting perspective, to Abreu in order to spend the money. Abreu does not have elite bat speed but hits more with strength. He also has a timing tap that could be an issue. 3. People should not think he's going to come in and dominate immediately. Look at Cespedes' second year. Look at Morales' ramp-up period. If you're expecting the next Yasiel Puig, prepare to be disappointed. I think the three obvious candidates to land Abreu are BOS, TEX and PIT, assuming they're high on him from a scouting perspective. Because of his defensive limitations, I don't see the price near Puig; probably closer to Cespedes (4/36). I've mentioned this a couple of time, too. People are ignoring the potential risks and everyone seems ready to jump in head first right now and do "whatever it takes" based on some videos off questionable pitching and video games numbers in the Cuban League. He's likely to be decent, but may not be the star everyone is expecting.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 12, 2013 17:10:02 GMT -5
Who expected this from Puig? Maybe the Dodgers but surely not the scouts who talked to BA that didn't see what all the fuss was about.
Its gonna come down to the scouts from each team and what their opinion is. I can guarantee you its not gonna be because of a YouTube video.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Aug 12, 2013 17:14:01 GMT -5
You add $16 - $17 million/year to your payroll, it lessens the ease of going full blast to try to re-sign Ellsbury, not that throwing $100 million Ellsbury's way guarantees that he re-signs. ... But whoever plays 1b will get paid next year. Only the rather dubious Carp-Hassan platoon would be cheap. So you're not adding $16-17M, you're replacing Napoli's likely $14M this year with whatever you sign Abreu for--which could be less than $14M. Good point. Hadn't thought of that. Still have it in my brain that Napoli is getting $5 million, but of course he's going to play enough to get his full annual $ value. Guess that undoes my Ellsbury point. If the Sox could sign Ellsbury for 5 year $85 - $90 million, I'd be on-board with that. Don't think that would be enough, though.
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