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Sign Jose Dariel Abreu? (10/17 update: signing with CWS)
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Post by sammo420 on Aug 12, 2013 17:30:27 GMT -5
Ellsbury won't come back because he's gonna get a big contract from someone else that the Red Sox won't want to match. It will have nothing to do with whether or not they sign Abreu imo. Quoted for truth. And I'm not talking about you as I know you weren't the first to bring it up and you obviously know he won't be back but I can't believe there are people who still haven't figured this out yet
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Post by godot on Aug 12, 2013 17:33:56 GMT -5
Have the Sox ( or any team) given any indication that they may be interested in him?
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Post by soxfanatic on Aug 12, 2013 17:38:40 GMT -5
Have the Sox ( or any team) given any indication that they may be interested in him? It's early...
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Post by bluechip on Aug 12, 2013 17:41:05 GMT -5
Who expected this from Puig? Maybe the Dodgers but surely not the scouts who talked to BA that didn't see what all the fuss was about. Its gonna come down to the scouts from each team and what their opinion is. I can guarantee you its not gonna be because of a YouTube video. Some scouts may see a guy with a 70 hit and 70 power. The teams who employ those scouts will likely be willing to pay 50, 60, or more for Abreu. The teams who employ scouts who see a guy who only hits mistakes and has a weird toe tap will probably stay away from the bidding entirely. I quoted the Bowden piece not because he knows prospects better than Baseball America, but because he clearly talked to different teams who have a much more positive opinion of Abreu. Nearly every single big name international player in the last six years has gotten more money than was expected, starting with the 51 million dollar posting fee for Dice-K, the contracts for Soler and Puig, the contract for MAG. I am betting some teams see a absolute stud and will fork over huge money for him. They might be wrong on their evaluation, but that evaluation will be based on their own scouts, not what someone leaked to BA.
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Post by azsoxfan on Aug 12, 2013 17:41:53 GMT -5
The Sox will have 6 starters next season when they pick up Lester's option. I don't see them putting Peavy, Lackey or Dempster in the bullpen as a reliever so one of them must go. This will free up another 13MM+ to sign Ellsbury and get someone (short term)for 1B. I think the sox can get Els for 5-6 yr/80-90MM. The only teams I could see as players are the Yanks (if A-rod suspended for full season), Cubs, Rangers and Mets, and are any of them willing to give up a first round pick? I like JBJ but do you let a .300+ lead-off hitter who can steal 40+ bases for at least the next 4 years walk for a prospect who hasn't hit over .276 in either AA or AAA, average speed, and will not be the lead-off hitter. JBJ needs more time in AAA to become a better hitter. As for signing Abreau, I think a 4 yr/50MM might work, but I think he will require time in the minors to showcase what he can really do. I do not think he will play winterball like Cespedes did so a lot of guessing will be a factor in this signing.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 12, 2013 17:52:19 GMT -5
Someone needs to open an Elllsbury thread, that topic is cluttering other threads and seems to be an important topic to some people.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 12, 2013 17:53:12 GMT -5
How many guys with his upside reach free agency at age 26/27? Obviously it comes down to what their scouts say, but if they like him, this seems like a perfect fit.
One concern I have is that their seems to be some talk also that he might be a DH on an AL team? He doesn't appear to have a particularly athletic body, but obviously I know nothing.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,818
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Post by steveofbradenton on Aug 12, 2013 18:25:20 GMT -5
Some of you are the SAME ones that got on me about a blog I started a few months ago about us seemingly missing out on some of these Cuban talents that just cost money and not our valuable prospects. Well how does Puig look now? How does these other guys look now? YES he could be a bust (Abreu). He could. But if he ALSO becomes a stud and just costs some dollars to see, don't say anything. Baseball, and really all sports, can be a crapshoot. If you have the funds and you have the need, you just do it.
Do any of you honestly believe there is another 1st baseman with this potential becoming available next year, the year after, or 5 years from now? I guess, but quite possibly not. The Sox better think long and hard about "passing" on Abreu. Ortiz will NOT be with us in 2 to 3 years.....count on it. We need a power hitter. We need a 1st baseman for 2014 (not Napoli). We will need a DH in 3 to 4 years.
Check him out thoroughly. Talk to his grandma. Make sure he treats his dog well. Check out his PE teacher when he was 15, but get involved! This kid has played BIG on the BIG stage internationally. He is not Sid Finch.
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Post by jdb on Aug 12, 2013 19:07:26 GMT -5
I'm assuming he will have a workout for scouts like MAG?
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 12, 2013 19:10:19 GMT -5
I'm assuming he will have a workout for scouts like MAG? It's very early in the processes, he just left the Island, I'm sure we'll be hearing more on that.
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Post by soxfan06 on Aug 12, 2013 19:12:22 GMT -5
It's probably sad that I have already got my hopes up so high that I will be devastated when he signs elsewhere.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Aug 12, 2013 19:19:53 GMT -5
How many guys with his upside reach free agency at age 26/27? Obviously it comes down to what their scouts say, but if they like him, this seems like a perfect fit. One concern I have is that their seems to be some talk also that he might be a DH on an AL team? He doesn't appear to have a particularly athletic body, but obviously I know nothing. Any opinion I might have on Abreu would be based on information that I do not have access to. So.... whatever.
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 12, 2013 19:41:40 GMT -5
Some of you are the SAME ones that got on me about a blog I started a few months ago about us seemingly missing out on some of these Cuban talents that just cost money and not our valuable prospects. Well how does Puig look now? How does these other guys look now? YES he could be a bust (Abreu). He could. But if he ALSO becomes a stud and just costs some dollars to see, don't say anything. Baseball, and really all sports, can be a crapshoot. If you have the funds and you have the need, you just do it. Do any of you honestly believe there is another 1st baseman with this potential becoming available next year, the year after, or 5 years from now? I guess, but quite possibly not. The Sox better think long and hard about "passing" on Abreu. Ortiz will NOT be with us in 2 to 3 years.....count on it. We need a power hitter. We need a 1st baseman for 2014 (not Napoli). We will need a DH in 3 to 4 years. Check him out thoroughly. Talk to his grandma. Make sure he treats his dog well. Check out his PE teacher when he was 15, but get involved! This kid has played BIG on the BIG stage internationally. He is not Sid Finch. Puig is going to fizzle out... Strikes out way too much to have sustained top notch success. Remember when the Sox exposed Soriano in the playoffs? Expect that to happen to Puig. How does Cespedes look? You tell me? .227/.295/.428 sound good? That K rate again... You're yelling about signing a guy you know nothing about. It'd be "cool" but so was signing Crawford.... All I agree with is they shoud do homework, but if they don't sign him and he's a std it doesn't necessarily mean it was a bad miss. For instance, if the info is limited but someone gives him a massive contract that's considered a gamble and it works out. That makes that team lucky more then the other teams being stupid.
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 12, 2013 19:51:45 GMT -5
What teams would be in on him? It's fairly clear teams won't pay big fora DH, right?
I look at these teams as out:
LAA - Pujols LAD - AGon DET - Fielder NYY - Tex Bal - Davis Atl - Freeman Tor - Encarnacion Phi - Howard and $$ issues Cin - Votto ARIZ - Goldschmidt CHC- Rizzo
These as may be's:
TEX CHW WAS NYM SEA MIA BOS
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Aug 12, 2013 21:01:35 GMT -5
What teams would be in on him? It's fairly clear teams won't pay big fora DH, right? I look at these teams as out: LAA - Pujols LAD - AGon DET - Fielder NYY - Tex Bal - Davis Atl - Freeman Tor - Encarnacion Phi - Howard and $$ issues Cin - Votto ARIZ - Goldschmidt CHC- Rizzo BAL can split 1B/DH between Davis and Abreu so I wouldn't count them out. TOR same with Encarnacion and Abreu, Lind isn't in their long term plans. NYY? Guess it depends on what happens with A-Rod.
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Post by jrffam05 on Aug 12, 2013 22:01:57 GMT -5
The Sox will have 6 starters next season when they pick up Lester's option. I don't see them putting Peavy, Lackey or Dempster in the bullpen as a reliever so one of them must go. This will free up another 13MM+ to sign Ellsbury and get someone (short term)for 1B. I think the sox can get Els for 5-6 yr/80-90MM. The only teams I could see as players are the Yanks (if A-rod suspended for full season), Cubs, Rangers and Mets, and are any of them willing to give up a first round pick? I like JBJ but do you let a .300+ lead-off hitter who can steal 40+ bases for at least the next 4 years walk for a prospect who hasn't hit over .276 in either AA or AAA, average speed, and will not be the lead-off hitter. JBJ needs more time in AAA to become a better hitter. As for signing Abreau, I think a 4 yr/50MM might work, but I think he will require time in the minors to showcase what he can really do. I do not think he will play winterball like Cespedes did so a lot of guessing will be a factor in this signing. Jbj has a higher Obp and slug than bogaerts in more AAA at bats. I think jbj puts up a better/equal Obp to ellsbury if his aaa stats translate over, also plays better defense and will literally cost 1/30-40 of ellsburys contract. Different thread needed I agree we are getting ahead of ourselves, but from the quick eyeball test I would argue the red sox are the best fit for this signing out of the whole league. We have the most cap space and the biggest first base need, and possibly Dh down the road.
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 12, 2013 22:07:10 GMT -5
Puig is going to fizzle out... Strikes out way too much to have sustained top notch success. Remember when the Sox exposed Soriano in the playoffs? Expect that to happen to Puig. Puig's K rate is 23.6%. That's 69th of 293 batters (200+ PAs), so it's not like it's crazy-high. He also walks 8.9% of the time, which is about average. He also doesn't appear to have an obvious hole where he swings and misses at every single curveball to the point where you wonder why anyone ever throws him anything other than a curveball, the way Soriano did. I mean sure, he's not going to maintain a .475 BABIP. But resetting his numbers with a .335 BABIP gives him a .288/.364/.511 line. That's pretty sweet from a 22-year-old.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Aug 12, 2013 22:24:40 GMT -5
Some of you are the SAME ones that got on me about a blog I started a few months ago about us seemingly missing out on some of these Cuban talents that just cost money and not our valuable prospects. Well how does Puig look now? How does these other guys look now? YES he could be a bust (Abreu). He could. But if he ALSO becomes a stud and just costs some dollars to see, don't say anything. Baseball, and really all sports, can be a crapshoot. If you have the funds and you have the need, you just do it. Do any of you honestly believe there is another 1st baseman with this potential becoming available next year, the year after, or 5 years from now? I guess, but quite possibly not. The Sox better think long and hard about "passing" on Abreu. Ortiz will NOT be with us in 2 to 3 years.....count on it. We need a power hitter. We need a 1st baseman for 2014 (not Napoli). We will need a DH in 3 to 4 years. Check him out thoroughly. Talk to his grandma. Make sure he treats his dog well. Check out his PE teacher when he was 15, but get involved! This kid has played BIG on the BIG stage internationally. He is not Sid Finch. Hi Steve, Not going to get onto you of course about signing IFA's as they are always a crapshot regardless. Just want to point out that Ibarra also came into the system with outstanding hit tools and they never materialized. Yes.. They found a labrum tear when he had his physical, but that should have long since healed. Regardless of the talent in other leagues. Cuban, NPB, Taiwan etc.. It's a entire different world in MLB starting with the culture as you and I know who have been to some of those places and seen 1st hand. It would be nice of course to see the team grab a high talent type, but teams with dire needs it seems generally are more willing it appears to over pay than what the Sox FO has set the values at. Kind of off topic for what your post is at, but ALL IFA's of any age should be grouped into the Rule 4 draft IMO. Selip ruined the draft with a cap, but the one issue he didn't fix was getting rid of the busco's hustling talent like he does and combining IFA's with the rule 4 would have done just that.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Aug 12, 2013 22:30:58 GMT -5
Puig is going to fizzle out... Strikes out way too much to have sustained top notch success. Remember when the Sox exposed Soriano in the playoffs? Expect that to happen to Puig. Puig's K rate is 23.6%. That's 69th of 293 batters (200+ PAs), so it's not like it's crazy-high. He also walks 8.9% of the time, which is about average. He also doesn't appear to have an obvious hole where he swings and misses at every single curveball to the point where you wonder why anyone ever throws him anything other than a curveball, the way Soriano did. I mean sure, he's not going to maintain a .475 BABIP. But resetting his numbers with a .335 BABIP gives him a .288/.364/.511 line. That's pretty sweet from a 22-year-old. Agreed. Lets say the Puig is really 24...for a guy that young that's still a hell of a season. His approach isn't bad and when you look at the recent guys from Cuba guys like Morales Puig and Cespedes....the Sox would kill to get any of those guys here. Abreu is worth a shot. MAG might be a better bet (if Phillies fall through) only because the pitchers seem to have less of a risk involved with them. Either way I think we've seen enough of a sample size to determine that this isn't as much of a gamble as say signing a guy to 120 million through his age 37 season.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Aug 12, 2013 22:34:53 GMT -5
Hi Steve, Not going to get onto you of course about signing IFA's as they are always a crapshot regardless. Just want to point out that Ibarra also came into the system with outstanding hit tools and they never materialized. Yes.. They found a labrum tear when he had his physical, but that should have long since healed. Regardless of the talent in other leagues. Cuban, NPB, Taiwan etc.. It's a entire different world in MLB starting with the culture as you and I know who have been to some of those places and seen 1st hand. It would be nice of course to see the team grab a high talent type, but teams with dire needs it seems generally are more willing it appears to over pay than what the Sox FO has set the values at. Kind of off topic for what your post is at, but ALL IFA's of any age should be grouped into the Rule 4 draft IMO. Selip ruined the draft with a cap, but the one issue he didn't fix was getting rid of the busco's hustling talent like he does and combining IFA's with the rule 4 would have done just that. Abreu has a much, much, much bigger reputation coming out of Cuba than Ibarra ever had. He has demolishing the competition in Cuba. Also combining IFA with the regular draft would very, very , very bad for baseball and I have argued it many times so won't get into that again.
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Post by taftreign on Aug 12, 2013 22:38:35 GMT -5
No matter how long it should take Abreu to clear I don't think MLB would allow it to occur until the playoff eligible period ends. Adding a potential bat like Abreu's to the market that could impact a team entering the playoffs could cause chaos and animosity.
As for signing Abreu in the offseason I don't see how it can be construed as a negative. I don't like to say it's only money but in some regards that is the truth. A 4 year deal with a slightly higher AAV is more appealing than a longer deal with a lower AAV both for Boston and Abreu.
As for alternatives mentioned in this post my favorites are trading for Belt who for some reason SF still hasn't taken too and I think would be a tremendous addition. The other was the idea of signing Abreu and adding him to a package to get Stanton although the team may need to eat a small portion of the contract in this scenario.
General thoughts on a few teams mentioned:
Texas is the biggest threat to sign Abreau because they have money and have shown a willingness to "go for it."
Baltimore "could" be a big threat if they choose to address the DH spot over pitching. They have $10 mil for Roberts coming off the books, $6 mil for Feldman and $6.75 mil for Hammel. Those contracts would easily free up the money to sign Abreu and fill one of the worst DH production spots in the AL. But I have to think the team is focused on the need to resign Weiters next season and locking up Machado early. If the team chooses to spend money I'd also bet its to add a pitcher like Garza to lead the rotation for the next few season while Gausman progresses and Bundy gets healthy.
Abreu does seem to fit the profile of the Chi Sox as he could fall somewhere in the Dunn/Konerko type.
Not sure if Seattle is still looking for a bat. Montero's suspension for PED's could force a decision on him sooner rather than later but the team seems to have finally seen Smoak come along and I'm not sure you want to mess with it. Also it may be better to sign the one you know in Morales vs the unknown Abreu.
Toronto didn't have success spending big money last year. Wonder if they have a free agent hangover.
The Mets do make sense as Ike hasn't proven himself and they might be able to get a low level prospect back from a team who will take a chance on him. Abreu would draw ratings and add another international flare to the big market.
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 13, 2013 4:40:54 GMT -5
I didn't know this dude existed until the report he defected, but an 80 hr pace over 162 games? If he performed half as good in the mlb he would hit 40 hrs. Actually, if you perform half as good as someone with 80 HRs, you get 80 flyouts.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,947
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Post by jimoh on Aug 13, 2013 6:47:20 GMT -5
Sign 1b Abreu? wow, I had completely forgotten that in Sept 2005 the Sox signed big Cuban 1b Michel Abreu for $425k, then voided the deal when they found out he was four years older than they thought www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Michel_Abreu5 years earlier they signed Juan Diaz, whose lifetime major league stats are pretty good: .286 .375.857 1.232 OPS+ 211 But it was only 4 games, and his minor league stats showed promise then fizzled.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 13, 2013 8:26:35 GMT -5
Sign 1b Abreu? wow, I had completely forgotten that in Sept 2005 the Sox signed big Cuban 1b Michel Abreu for $425k, then voided the deal when they found out he was four years older than they thought www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Michel_Abreu5 years earlier they signed Juan Diaz, whose lifetime major league stats are pretty good: .286 .375.857 1.232 OPS+ 211 But it was only 4 games, and his minor league stats showed promise then fizzled. We didn't sign Juan Diaz from Cuba. The Dodgers signed him in 1996 from Cuba and he spent 3 years in their minor league system. They granted him free agency in 1999 because he was ruled to be illegally signed. Sox had 3 years of minor league scouting and data on him. Quite a bit different than Abreu. Duquette when asked in 2nd article why it took so long to sign Diaz said; "They thought they should get a lot more money." www.nytimes.com/1999/06/29/sports/plus-baseball-cubans-released-from-contracts.html articles.latimes.com/2000/mar/05/sports/sp-5684
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 13, 2013 8:45:28 GMT -5
Puig is going to fizzle out... Strikes out way too much to have sustained top notch success. Remember when the Sox exposed Soriano in the playoffs? Expect that to happen to Puig. Puig's K rate is 23.6%. That's 69th of 293 batters (200+ PAs), so it's not like it's crazy-high. He also walks 8.9% of the time, which is about average. He also doesn't appear to have an obvious hole where he swings and misses at every single curveball to the point where you wonder why anyone ever throws him anything other than a curveball, the way Soriano did. I mean sure, he's not going to maintain a .475 BABIP. But resetting his numbers with a .335 BABIP gives him a .288/.364/.511 line. That's pretty sweet from a 22-year-old. You may be right, but I don't think this will be the case. His K rate in July and Aug is about 33%... Both are small samples so time will tell. When I see him, he scares the crap out of me - I wouldn't put money on sustained success, however, he can certainly develop and the tools are there.
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