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Sign Jose Dariel Abreu? (10/17 update: signing with CWS)
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Post by rangoon82 on Aug 13, 2013 10:25:12 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Aug 13, 2013 10:34:12 GMT -5
RJP, I'm going to take the Puig talk into the non-Sox MLB thread, because I think it's interesting but I don't want to clutter up this thread.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 13, 2013 10:48:38 GMT -5
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Post by bluechip on Aug 13, 2013 11:04:15 GMT -5
While not a perfect example, if we need to do a comp, Hediki Matsui might be a better comparison. In that Matsui was an established player from an international league, whose value came from his bat. Hopefully Abreu would be a better hitter, and Abreu will not have the value Matsui had in the field, but its a better comparison, in my opinion.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Aug 13, 2013 11:10:55 GMT -5
While not a perfect example, if we need to do a comp, Hediki Matsui might be a better comparison. In that Matsui was an established player from an international league, whose value came from his bat. Hopefully Abreu would be a better hitter, and Abreu will not have the value Matsui had in the field, but its a better comparison, in my opinion. Matsui played 7 years with the Yankees. His OPS with them was 852. I'm assuming non-PED influenced. I'd be estatic if we can get that out of our 1b over the next 7 years.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 13, 2013 11:16:27 GMT -5
While not a perfect example, if we need to do a comp, Hediki Matsui might be a better comparison. In that Matsui was an established player from an international league, whose value came from his bat. Hopefully Abreu would be a better hitter, and Abreu will not have the value Matsui had in the field, but its a better comparison, in my opinion. Matsui played 7 years with the Yankees. His OPS with them was 852. I'm assuming non-PED influenced. I'd be estatic if we can get that out of our 1b over the next 7 years. Yeah. I went and looked back at Matsui after I posted that and realized his peak was a lot longer than I thought. I guess he was just overshadowed by the other sluggers of that generation.
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Post by godot on Aug 13, 2013 12:12:13 GMT -5
From some of the clips seems like he will like Fenway; that is, if he can hit major league pitching. However, from his body type, they would need to get him into a good conditioning program. He is not fat, just a big lumbering kid, but he needs to trim down and tighten up. Unless he watches it, he will get heavier as he gets older. I wonder if has got by very well in Cuba with his natural hitting abilities, and is not use to working hard at it. He does seem to be able to use the whole field. Intriguing hitting prospect for the Sox.
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Post by jmei on Aug 13, 2013 12:43:58 GMT -5
He's not a prospect because hes 26 already. He'll sign a major league deal. He'll either slot in as a starting 1B/DH immediately or basically be a bust. Therein lies his high risk, high reward profile.
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Deleted
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Post by Deleted on Aug 13, 2013 13:55:09 GMT -5
He's not a prospect because hes 26 already. He'll sign a major league deal. He'll either slot in as a starting 1B/DH immediately or basically be a bust. Therein lies his high risk, high reward profile. And given the success of Puig and Cespedes some team may give him a contract that exceeds that profile. Given what it's going to cost, his age, and that he's limited to 1B at best, I'd want a guy with no doubt bat speed whom you can't beat by busting up inside.
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Post by iakovos11 on Aug 13, 2013 14:29:47 GMT -5
He's not a prospect because hes 26 already. He'll sign a major league deal. He'll either slot in as a starting 1B/DH immediately or basically be a bust. Therein lies his high risk, high reward profile. And given the success of Puig and Cespedes some team may give him a contract that exceeds that profile. Given what it's going to cost, his age, and that he's limited to 1B at best, I'd want a guy with no doubt bat speed whom you can't beat by busting up inside. I agree. I think will and should do their due diligence, but I see someone going hard for this guy. Not sure I want it to be Boston.
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Post by Guidas on Aug 13, 2013 15:23:28 GMT -5
If he has a 70 hit tool - which I find a bit of a stretch if, as others say, he's not faced a lot of FBs over 90MPH - then he's an elite player just based on that. Combine it with 70 power and he's a top 10 hitter in MLB. Then again, this is Jim Bowden so take it all with a large grain of salt.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Aug 13, 2013 15:53:24 GMT -5
This 90 MPH fastball thing is getting over played here. The Cuban League has an insane variety of quality, from rather established guys who if in the MLB would be solid to above average players (Cespedes, Puig, Martin, Chapman) to super talented kids who would be top prospects in the states (Soler, Jose Fernandez, Iglesias, Grandal) guys who are or depth (JCL, Leslie Anderson, Urrutia, Viciedo, Maya) all the way to guys who may or may not have been even drafted out of college. Does Abreu likely feast on some shitty pitchers? Absolutely. Does the average pitcher in the Cuban league have fringe stuff? Yes no doubt. Does no one on the island have MLB quality fastballs? I think we have seen enough Cuban pitchers to know that is not the case. Also we have seen the guy on the international stage against some good, bad, and plain ugly opposition.
The guy is not going to be the best hitter in baseball. But he is not going to come stateside and see a 93 MPH fastball on the inner third and be all "Ay dios mio".
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Post by bluechip on Aug 13, 2013 16:03:33 GMT -5
Well, my understanding is that the Cuban League is roughly equivalent to AA. So in AA, you could expect to face some guys with crud stuff, but you will also face guys with great fastballs and secondary pitches. Unlike AA, he will also have faced guys who are established and are no longer in need of seasoning.
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 13, 2013 16:48:10 GMT -5
Well, my understanding is that the Cuban League is roughly equivalent to AA. So in AA, you could expect to face some guys with crud stuff, but you will also face guys with great fastballs and secondary pitches. Unlike AA, he will also have faced guys who are established and are no longer in need of seasoning. The overall quality of the Cuban League (not the Cuban national team) may be on a par with AA. However, the top Cuban Leaguers are likely on a par with any major league roster. Therefore, Abreu (who has major league talent) has faced a blend of pitching spanning the high minors and the major league.
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Post by sdiaz1 on Aug 13, 2013 17:01:46 GMT -5
Well, my understanding is that the Cuban League is roughly equivalent to AA. So in AA, you could expect to face some guys with crud stuff, but you will also face guys with great fastballs and secondary pitches. Unlike AA, he will also have faced guys who are established and are no longer in need of seasoning. I am not a big fan of trying to find an equivalent minor league level for the Cuban league. Yes there are a lot of players in Cuba that would max out in the high minors, but there are also a ton of players that would not even sniff A ball while there a few that could be star level guys on the biggest stage. There is just too much variation to throw out - its equivalent to AA or high A (which I hear more often).
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Aug 13, 2013 17:26:48 GMT -5
What do we do with all of this money that Sox supposedly have next year? Hope that a 1st baseman, power hitter all of a sudden appears? Many of you are somehow thinking this is your retirement money. Do you not want the Red Sox to use their financial might or would you rather we just settled for a Carp/Hassan split? Yes it could be a total bust and flop. So what are you saying....don't even try?
I agree that Abreu could be a complete flop, but he may not. This is not Dice-K numeral 2. Get over that. It all comes down too....do we take a chance or not. Granted it is not my money, but it is not yours either. I want the Sox to continually try to be the best team in the world. Don't you want the same thing?
Jose Dariel Abreu may be a big part of our line-up for years, but he may not. I'm heading to Europe in 3 weeks. I may crash over the Atlantic and then again....I may not and have a great time.
WHAT would be enough proof for some of you that he is a potentially a guy we need to go after BIG time? He has thrived in International games. He has had ridiculous numbers for several years in the Cuban League. It seems like some of you are wanting to talk yourself out of taking a chance. Why?
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Aug 13, 2013 17:51:23 GMT -5
The HR in that article was on a 75 MPH change up which he ended up hitting to right/center. The guy doesn't look very overweight though. Sometimes watching Cuba play is like a visit to weight watchers. He's not as heavy as I thought he would be. Lavarnway hit a ton of HR but probably can't get around on many inside fastballs now in mlb. And his body type looks similar to me. The bottom line is look at the alternatives and given the video game numbers he has put up I would probably roll the dice. We know what others we have signed hit in that league. Iglesias was a little over 300 if I remember correctly. Wasn't Linares around 320. That gives us some idea plus he lead the league in HR also? From looking at big Papi's body type, i would have think he would have similar problems with inside fastballs but we know how that worked out. I'm probably rolling the dice for over $50 mil for this guy. Maybe even up to $65 mil. I don't know enough about him to be precise.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Aug 13, 2013 18:26:48 GMT -5
What do we do with all of this money that Sox supposedly have next year? Hope that a 1st baseman, power hitter all of a sudden appears? Many of you are somehow thinking this is your retirement money. Do you not want the Red Sox to use their financial might or would you rather we just settled for a Carp/Hassan split? Yes it could be a total bust and flop. So what are you saying....don't even try? I agree that Abreu could be a complete flop, but he may not. This is not Dice-K numeral 2. Get over that. It all comes down too....do we take a chance or not. Granted it is not my money, but it is not yours either. I want the Sox to continually try to be the best team in the world. Don't you want the same thing? Jose Dariel Abreu may be a big part of our line-up for years, but he may not. I'm heading to Europe in 3 weeks. I may crash over the Atlantic and then again....I may not and have a great time. WHAT would be enough proof for some of you that he is a potentially a guy we need to go after BIG time? He has thrived in International games. He has had ridiculous numbers for several years in the Cuban League. It seems like some of you are wanting to talk yourself out of taking a chance. Why? It has nothing to do with it being my money or not. I want the Red Sox to win every year, I understand they have a budget, so I want the money spent as efficiently as possible to maximize the winning. I can't stand the "it's not your money" stuff, that's terrible rationale to justify any given proposal. I was told the same thing after the CC signing, yet those same people whined when the Red Sox were stuck up against the luxury tax and couldn't capitalize on opportunities to "flex their financial muscle". The Red Sox can flex their financial muscle in another way, they aren't choosing between Carp/Hassan or Abreu, there are other options. It's important to not make a poor evaluation just because the team has a need and you can dream on this guy being able to fill that need. The whole supporting argument can't be 1. it's not your money 2. you could crash in a plane 3. he played well in a handful of exhibition games and in international play...this guy is likely to get a significant contract, and perhaps superior MLB options will exist for less of a cost. This player is intriguing but can't we just leave it at that? The range of outcomes for this player is extreme for the type of contract he'll likely land.
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Post by bluechip on Aug 13, 2013 18:41:16 GMT -5
The Red Sox can flex their financial muscle in another way, they aren't choosing between Carp/Hassan or Abreu, there are other options. It's important to not make a poor evaluation just because the team has a need and you can dream on this guy being able to fill that need. The whole supporting argument can't be 1. it's not your money 2. you could crash in a plane 3. he played well in a handful of exhibition games and in international play...this guy is likely to get a significant contract, and perhaps superior MLB options will exist for less of a cost. This player is intriguing but can't we just leave it at that? The range of outcomes for this player is extreme for the type of contract he'll likely land. While I agree that "it's not our money" is a terrible justification, there really are not a lot of available option for this team. At first, it is Mike Napoli, and not much more. Another alternative would be to sign a left fielder and rely on a Carp/Nava/someone else platoon at first. So the available Left fielders are Choo, Cruz (coming off a PED suspension), Hart (coming off a major injury), and a couple of other guys. What makes Abreu so intriguing for me, is that a power hitting, righthanded, first baseman is exactly what the Red Sox need. If the Red Sox believe that Abreu is capable of hitting at the MLB level, he is the most attractive player available, IMO.
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Post by grandsalami on Aug 13, 2013 23:31:01 GMT -5
TORONTO — A team source said Tuesday the Red Sox are “certainly interested” in power-hitting Cuban first baseman Jose Abreu, who has defected and started the process of becoming a free agent. The 6-foot-3-inch, 250-pound righthanded hitter has taken up residence in Haiti, according to several reports. Over the course of the next few months, Abreu is expected to hold workouts for interested teams while his representatives get the necessary clearances from Major League Baseball and the United States government. With Mike Napoli signed only through the end of this season, the Sox will have a need at first base in 2014. The position is perhaps the weakest in the team’s farm system. Full story for BostonGlobe.com subscribers. www.boston.com/sports/baseball/redsox/2013/08/13/red-sox-interested-cuban-first-baseman-jose-abreu/1Aater8iVyW9REGJo8ntON/story.html?camp=misc:on:twit:sox&SREF=Optin&dlvrit=199675
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Post by Guidas on Aug 14, 2013 15:01:44 GMT -5
Tim: Bowden said his discussions with scouts about Jose Abreu gave him 70 hit/70 power tool - what's your take? Klaw (2:15 PM) That's saying he'll be a .320ish hitter with 30+ bombs. I don't think I have ever had a scout hang those grades on any player to me.
Supports my earlier post about the absurdity of saying a guy has a 70 hit tool.
Also reinforces the ClownShow that is Jim Bowden.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Aug 14, 2013 17:38:41 GMT -5
Tim: Bowden said his discussions with scouts about Jose Abreu gave him 70 hit/70 power tool - what's your take? Klaw (2:15 PM) That's saying he'll be a .320ish hitter with 30+ bombs. I don't think I have ever had a scout hang those grades on any player to me. Supports my earlier post about the absurdity of saying a guy has a 70 hit tool. Also reinforces the ClownShow that is Jim Bowden. That entire post is hilarious. Especially Law's response.
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Post by stevedillard on Aug 14, 2013 17:57:40 GMT -5
Tim: Bowden said his discussions with scouts about Jose Abreu gave him 70 hit/70 power tool - what's your take? Klaw (2:15 PM) That's saying he'll be a .320ish hitter with 30+ bombs. I don't think I have ever had a scout hang those grades on any player to me. Supports my earlier post about the absurdity of saying a guy has a 70 hit tool. Also reinforces the ClownShow that is Jim Bowden. As far as projecting, is it fair to say that escaping Cuba increases his will to live?
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Post by mgoetze on Aug 14, 2013 18:17:14 GMT -5
As far as projecting, is it fair to say that escaping Cuba increases his will to live? No, he will soon notice that money can't compensate for being cut off from his friends and family.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 14, 2013 18:59:14 GMT -5
It's fairly clear teams won't pay big fora DH, right? Detroit pays big for like 5 of them.
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