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Masahiro Tanaka (1/22 update: to NYY for 7/$155m)
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Post by p23w on Dec 30, 2013 17:03:53 GMT -5
I like the idea of signing Tanaka if for no other reason than it keeps him out of NY +6 Best reason to sign Tanaka in this thread.
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Post by mainesox on Dec 30, 2013 17:15:50 GMT -5
Signing a guy you don't have a real need for, to a contract that you think is more than he's worth, just so you can keep him away from a rival team would be a terrible way to run a baseball team.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 30, 2013 17:24:42 GMT -5
Signing a guy you don't have a real need for, to a contract that you think is more than he's worth, just so you can keep him away from a rival team would be a terrible way to run a baseball team. Devil's Advocate: So the Sox don't "need" a 25 year old #2 starter? I agree signing him simply to keep him away from a rival is a bad strategy. But we all know if they are sold on his talent then it's not that simple. Some guy named Gregg Doyel at CBS Sports is now all in on Tanaka, but sounds like he's not seen him live, either, and is just being swayed by the hype: www.cbssports.com/general/writer/gregg-doyel/24391988/the-next-japanese-star-tanaka-will-be-much-more-darvish-than-dicek
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Post by zil on Dec 30, 2013 17:34:18 GMT -5
I like the idea of signing Tanaka if for no other reason than it keeps him out of NY I like the fact that we have gotten away from the punch/counter-punch binary of basing our moves around what the Yankees might do. We're in a much better long-term position than the Yankees. Our roster is better, younger, and more flexible. Our farm system is superior to their farm system by several orders of magnitude. They're not even the biggest threat to us in our own division, let alone the league. Our decision on Tanaka will be purely based on whether he makes sense for us, and that's how it should be. I can't see us landing him given Speier's reporting the Red Sox view him as a number three at best. They're not going to outbid everyone for a pitcher they don't even view as a frontline starter.
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Post by mainesox on Dec 30, 2013 17:40:41 GMT -5
Signing a guy you don't have a real need for, to a contract that you think is more than he's worth, just so you can keep him away from a rival team would be a terrible way to run a baseball team. Devil's Advocate: So the Sox don't "need" a 25 year old #2 starter? I agree signing him simply to keep him away from a rival is a bad strategy. But we all know if they are sold on his talent then it's not that simple. Some guy named Gregg Doyel at CBS Sports is now all in on Tanaka, but sounds like he's not seen him live, either, and is just being swayed by the hype: www.cbssports.com/general/writer/gregg-doyel/24391988/the-next-japanese-star-tanaka-will-be-much-more-darvish-than-dicek Well, with the depth they have at SP they don't need any starting pitcher; another top of the rotation pitcher would be a nice luxury, but it's not a need. Also, it's been reported (by Speier) that the Sox view Tanaka as having a ceiling of a #3 starter.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 30, 2013 17:59:56 GMT -5
You make it seem like by adding Tanaka, the Red Sox would corner the market on starting pitchers. Is that true? The class of free agent starters is still pretty deep, with front-end types (Garza, Jimenez, Santana, Burnett), capable veterans available on cheap, short-term deals (Arroyo, Chen, Maholm, Hammel), and injury reclamations (Hanson, J. Santana). There's also David Price and Jeff Samardzija hanging out there on the trade market. Remember, the only marginal benefit to Boston's trading leverage here is that if Tanaka signs with Boston, the team that would have otherwise signed him now needs to go to plan B. I don't think that increases the demand for Boston's pitchers much, if at all. It could also hurt because teams would know the Red Sox have no choice but to trade at least one of them. True - and this would hamper the Sox if there was only 1 team looking for a starter. But once you have 2, you have leverage. And if your choices offer same or better perceived quality than what is on the market with more acceptable control (1, 2 or 3 years) at less money and you're a mid-market or lower team that cares about money and is willing to deal, then the Sox have even more leverage. None of this is binary, and - like the Shields, Fister and other deals - perception, both of talent being acquired and talent going out the door - can vary. But of course, beyond the chess match dealing that would come when shopping other talent after the deal the levers for the Sox would presumably also include: 1. What do they believe is Tanaka's projection given his track record and age? 2. How much in dollars (or dollars and prospects) do they think a 25 year-old starter with that talent is worth? 3. Do they have high confidence that they have a starter in the minors who can produce at or near Tanaka's projection at the MLB level within the next 1-2 years? 4. If yes to 3, do they want another starter at a similar talent level or do they want to pass, given that good quality 25 year old free agents starters are rare? 5. If they decide they want a pitcher of this talent level, do they have high confidence that they can acquire a free agent in the next 1-2 years who will provide similar/identical/better projection at similar overall cost (this factors in the ages of free agents, the projected years they will command in the marketplace, and their presumed decline during those years, if any) vs. similar costs of a 25 year old, who may still be improving, and whose decline period may be less or nonexistent based on years of deal. 6. If still very motivated to acquire, what do the medicals look like? (if Close and Tanaka won't provide then like other FA deals, it becomes contingent on a physical). 7. If you're here. and you're still highly motivated to acquire then you've probably already probed deep into all the other stuff that's not as straight forward as 1-6, such as character, ancillary issues pursuant to the final contract, can he be persuaded to sit out the World Baseball Cluster Classic, etc. AND do we have prediscussed interest in some of the pieces that we'd deal in the wake of this deal, and if so, how does that fit our needs short term and over the next 5 years. So, yeah, if you get to 7, which is all that plus the other stuff, and you still want him badly, then it becomes a dollar for dollar free agent fight predicated on your own bottom line take it or leave it offer and all that. Lotta moving parts. I would love to be on a front office team working on this kind of deal and doing it from a position of strength (Boston, LAD, Texas) rather than a position of desperation (MFYs, and to a lesser extent Toronto, Az, Balt). ADDED: had the pleasure of having a very candid conversation with one of the highest level front office people about a year after the aborted ARod to Boston deal (which also would've involved Nomar and Manny Ramirez deals, and maybe one other depending who was coming back in one of those packages, in its wake) - it was amazing how many moving parts they were juggling based on a single acquisition.
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Post by jmei on Dec 30, 2013 19:06:28 GMT -5
True - and this would hamper the Sox if there was only 1 team looking for a starter. But once you have 2, you have leverage. And if your choices offer same or better perceived quality than what is on the market with more acceptable control (1, 2 or 3 years) at less money and you're a mid-market or lower team that cares about money and is willing to deal, then the Sox have even more leverage. A small- or mid-market team that cares about cost wouldn't be in on Tanaka in the first place, and so Boston signing him doesn't remove one of their options. Signing Tanaka thus gives the Red Sox no additional leverage on those teams and only has the potential to decrease it because they now know for sure Boston has to make a move by the end of Spring Training.
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Post by dewey1972 on Dec 30, 2013 19:35:10 GMT -5
So the Sox have an opportunity to get a 26 year old pitcher that projects as a #2 and all it costs is money? Due to the age of the player the potential for Tanaka to bust is actually quite small. At least for the first few years. I would argue that Tanaka at 16-17 million is a much better bet than someone like Feldman at 10. The market has been going crazy with money and the Sox over the next few years will be one of the best equipped to make a move like this due to the lack of anchor contracts. I'm not advocating giving him $20 million a year and ditching Lester. But if you look at this. Lackey is making the minimum in 2015, Doubront is still a question mark and Dempster is surely getting moved. Getting Tanaka in the fold gives Boston the ability to keep Lester (I would assume they give him a deal after April so the hit doesn't carry over until next year) and keep the teams core strong in pitching. You can never have enough. As far as the "kids" in AAA you cannot depend on them having Tanaka like success. There is no one down there that has his upside let alone the upside of someone like Jose Fernandez (we like to pump up our prospects sometimes). I feel like somehow Darvish has made a lot of people forget about Matsuzaka, who came over with just as much hype. Tanaka is nowhere near a sure thing. He's certainly got a high potential for success, but he is nearly universally thought of as a lesser pitcher than Darvish. What I've read indicates that his success in Japan is due to good control and a variety of good pitches, but that he doesn't have a true out pitch, which is unlikely to result in the same success in the US that he had in Japan. Anyway, my main point is that while he's certainly got a good possibility to be a good pitcher, the potential for him to get hurt or turn out to be closer to Ryan Dempster is plenty high. No, none of the six well-thought of Red Sox pitching prospects, individually, have the same likelihood of turning out to be a #2, but combined, I'd say they have a higher probability (and at much lower salaries). Of course, as others have pointed out, it's not an either/or situation, and the Sox will likely need another starter sometime soon, whether it's 2015 or 2106. I think the interesting thought experiment is at what kind of a salary you would want Tanaka. Clearly some of the people on the board would do it for something close to what it will take. But at some point he obviously makes sense. At $10 million a year, I can't imagine anyone saying it'd be a bad idea. What about $15 million? Given the salary inflation we've seen this winter, $15 million is really not that much. Regardless of all of this, I can't imagine the Sox will not meet the $20 million posting fee. I think it's unlikely that they wind up being a serious contender given the six major league starters and abundance of young pitching potential, but there's no reason to not at least see what'd take.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 30, 2013 19:43:24 GMT -5
There's nothing to lose and a lot to gain, though that's admittedly a longshot. Can't imagine they won't meet the posting fee and put in a bid. I doubt if it will anywhere near the winning bid, but let the games begin.
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Post by kungfuizzy on Dec 30, 2013 19:46:07 GMT -5
So the Sox have an opportunity to get a 26 year old pitcher that projects as a #2 and all it costs is money? Due to the age of the player the potential for Tanaka to bust is actually quite small. At least for the first few years. I would argue that Tanaka at 16-17 million is a much better bet than someone like Feldman at 10. The market has been going crazy with money and the Sox over the next few years will be one of the best equipped to make a move like this due to the lack of anchor contracts. I'm not advocating giving him $20 million a year and ditching Lester. But if you look at this. Lackey is making the minimum in 2015, Doubront is still a question mark and Dempster is surely getting moved. Getting Tanaka in the fold gives Boston the ability to keep Lester (I would assume they give him a deal after April so the hit doesn't carry over until next year) and keep the teams core strong in pitching. You can never have enough. As far as the "kids" in AAA you cannot depend on them having Tanaka like success. There is no one down there that has his upside let alone the upside of someone like Jose Fernandez (we like to pump up our prospects sometimes). I feel like somehow Darvish has made a lot of people forget about Matsuzaka, who came over with just as much hype. Tanaka is nowhere near a sure thing. He's certainly got a high potential for success, but he is nearly universally thought of as a lesser pitcher than Darvish. What I've read indicates that his success in Japan is due to good control and a variety of good pitches, but that he doesn't have a true out pitch, which is unlikely to result in the same success in the US that he had in Japan. Anyway, my main point is that while he's certainly got a good possibility to be a good pitcher, the potential for him to get hurt or turn out to be closer to Ryan Dempster is plenty high. No, none of the six well-thought of Red Sox pitching prospects, individually, have the same likelihood of turning out to be a #2, but combined, I'd say they have a higher probability (and at much lower salaries). Of course, as others have pointed out, it's not an either/or situation, and the Sox will likely need another starter sometime soon, whether it's 2015 or 2106. I think the interesting thought experiment is at what kind of a salary you would want Tanaka. Clearly some of the people on the board would do it for something close to what it will take. But at some point he obviously makes sense. At $10 million a year, I can't imagine anyone saying it'd be a bad idea. What about $15 million? Given the salary inflation we've seen this winter, $15 million is really not that much. Regardless of all of this, I can't imagine the Sox will not meet the $20 million posting fee. I think it's unlikely that they wind up being a serious contender given the six major league starters and abundance of young pitching potential, but there's no reason to not at least see what'd take. Dice K actually was not that bad through his first few seasons. If you look at recently posted Japanese Imports over the last few years the last true bust was Igawa. I would disagree on the out pitch. He is young enough where one of his pitches might actually turn out of be an out pitch. He does have one thing that this coaching staff loves, he goes at hitters. Pitching wins titles as we just saw last month. In this case wouldn't it be better to overpay a young arm that if everything breaks right would be paid below current market value than say someone like Vargas or Feldman? I love the idea of adding a young talent that only costs money and could be a building block for years to come especially when it doesn't come at the expense of young prospects or a draft pick.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 30, 2013 21:09:31 GMT -5
True - and this would hamper the Sox if there was only 1 team looking for a starter. But once you have 2, you have leverage. And if your choices offer same or better perceived quality than what is on the market with more acceptable control (1, 2 or 3 years) at less money and you're a mid-market or lower team that cares about money and is willing to deal, then the Sox have even more leverage. A small- or mid-market team that cares about cost wouldn't be in on Tanaka in the first place, and so Boston signing him doesn't remove one of their options. Signing Tanaka thus gives the Red Sox no additional leverage on those teams and only has the potential to decrease it because they now know for sure Boston has to make a move by the end of Spring Training. Never said it did - just give the Sox another bidder with prospects against a team that lost out. Not all bidders for whatever talent you may be dealing post-Tanaka acquisition will be serious bidders on Tanaka. That doesn't lessen their perceived or actual need for starting pitching. They are not mutually exclusive. There are teams who need starting pitching who can afford to be in play for Tanaka. There are others that can't. In fact the latter point may make them all the more anxious to offer very good prospects because that's their best "currency."
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Post by bluechip on Jan 1, 2014 7:56:59 GMT -5
The age of Tanaka really can't be underscored enough. Yes the Red Sox have some young pitchers who are CLOSE to MLB ready, but I think it's worth mentioning that Tanaka is YOUNGER than Brandon Workman and only six months older than Rubby De La Rosa. Obviously you are not getting him for as cheap as the "kids" currently in the organization, but you are getting him for the prime seasons of his career. You really can't mention the age advantage enough.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 1, 2014 12:06:01 GMT -5
We had a chance to basically put a nail in the Yankees coffin IF we could have signed away Kuroda and Tanaka. That team would probably not be the same with other starting pitching options from the FA market at least. I'm all for still factoring in the competitive landscape in our division and don't we know that even with the disarray now present in NYC, they probably still make the playoffs next year. The Brinks trucks are still on their way to the Steinbrenner's family compound. Isn't it still very possible that they sign Tanaka and they probably still blow right past the luxury tax limit this year.
I can't believe how messed up it is down there but money solves so many problems in life.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jan 1, 2014 13:25:46 GMT -5
For the 14 millionth time, there was no chance in hell Kuroda was signing withe Sox this year. It was Yankees or Japan. I mean maybe if wanted to throw 25 mill at him - but that would be stupid in sooooo many ways.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 2, 2014 3:07:27 GMT -5
The MFYs have driven quite enough nails into their own coffin, thanks. The Sox, rightly, don't predicate their decision making around the other guy. They may make an offer on Tanaka or they may not. But it won't be about the Yankees. That's just not the way the club is run these days.
You might want to check out the archives, Lavarnway. We heard exactly the same sort of talk last year, about Hamilton, Greinke, even about Bourne. Lots of it repeated over and over and over again, even after it became crystal clear where the team was headed. It all came to naught, thankfully.
Instead, the team built a solid lineup, re-energized the pitching staff, stockpiled abundant usable relievers, and sold high on Iglesias for a late season asset, one with additional team control.
They kept the faith on projects like Middlebrooks, but showed real savvy by bringing up one of the best prospects in memory to take over once it was playoff crunch time. The results were top shelf.
They scored more runs than any other team, their starters outpitched the class of the league in those playoffs, and came on even stronger in the WS. But even they were cast in the shadow of that relief corps, one that included a closer who offered up a performance for the ages.
They also found the time to road test three potential starters, one of whom went on to make his mark in the post-season. And they did all that while hoarding and nurturing one of the best collection of minor league assets anywhere. They kept them all and still took home all the marbles.
When you consider the above, perhaps you'll understand why a few of us are more than willing to give the FO the benefit of the doubt. We've heard it all before, and I, for one, have a tin ear for most of it.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jan 2, 2014 10:27:20 GMT -5
We had a chance to basically put a nail in the Yankees coffin IF we could have signed away Kuroda and Tanaka. That team would probably not be the same with other starting pitching options from the FA market at least. I'm all for still factoring in the competitive landscape in our division and don't we know that even with the disarray now present in NYC, they probably still make the playoffs next year. The Brinks trucks are still on their way to the Steinbrenner's family compound. Isn't it still very possible that they sign Tanaka and they probably still blow right past the luxury tax limit this year. I can't believe how messed up it is down there but money solves so many problems in life. No, no we don't just know that ... I'd be pretty surprised if the Yankees make the playoffs next year. They were actually a pretty lucky team last year in terms of their record, and A LOT of things need to go right for them to get much better this year. Worry about the Rays, they're a much better team than the Yankees.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jan 2, 2014 10:52:54 GMT -5
I like the idea of signing Tanaka if for no other reason than it keeps him out of NY Thats what the Mariners are for.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 2, 2014 13:21:17 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Jan 2, 2014 14:10:18 GMT -5
One more, with ZIPS - which some here have used as evidence that the Sox may project to be the best team in the AL, if not all of baseball - ostensibly showing Tanaka is a right-handed David Price. Excerpt: ZiPS estimates a mean projection (neutral park/league) of a 3.46 ERA in 190 innings from Tanaka, for an ERA+ of 117 and 3.9 WAR. The 117 ERA+ projected compares favorably to the 124 ERA+ projected for David Price in a neutral park. While Price comes out a little better in the comparison, signing Tanaka has the fringe benefit of not necessitating the Rays stealing some of your best prospects.And if you disagree, don't blame me. ?Szymborski wrote it.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jan 2, 2014 14:17:06 GMT -5
From the same article: Six years, $120 million or so. That’s what you guys think Tanaka is going to sign for. That’s what I’m guessing too, though I won’t be too shocked if it’s ends up a bit higher than that. I would pretty surprised if it was much lower. As a general rule, the crowd has been consistently too low on large contracts; missing on Cano by two years, missing on Ellsbury by one year and $3M in AAV, missing on Choo by two years and $3 million in AAV, and missing on McCann by one year and $2M in AAV. If this estimate follows the trend of previous forecasts for big contracts, maybe a more realistic projection would be 7/$154, or almost exactly equal to the Ellsbury contract. Toss in the $20 million posting fee, and that would put him at $7/$174M, or $1M shy of the extension signed by Felix Hernandez.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jan 2, 2014 14:31:08 GMT -5
One more, with ZIPS - which some here have used as evidence that the Sox may project to be the best team in the AL, if not all of baseball - ostensibly showing Tanaka is a right-handed David Price. Excerpt: ZiPS estimates a mean projection (neutral park/league) of a 3.46 ERA in 190 innings from Tanaka, for an ERA+ of 117 and 3.9 WAR. The 117 ERA+ projected compares favorably to the 124 ERA+ projected for David Price in a neutral park. While Price comes out a little better in the comparison, signing Tanaka has the fringe benefit of not necessitating the Rays stealing some of your best prospects.And if you disagree, don't blame me. ?Szymborski wrote it. And really all that matters is one front office may agree and look at the age and go nuts. I don't know enough to have my own opinion on what would make sense, but what if the commitments of the past don't apply. 1. The nature of the current available starting pitching environment or lack thereof. 2. Tanaka's age and projections may combine to an offer extending into his mid thirties which may be up to a 10 year offer. 3. The reduction of risk with recent successes in recovery from Tommy John ie Lackey). 4. The unique marketing opportunities, blah blah. 5. The player himself as noted above does have believers and elite projections. I see a Seattle like outlier with a 10/20 offer with maybe two Lackey clause protected years. (Any full year missed gets an option year tacked on at the end at minimum)
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 2, 2014 14:35:50 GMT -5
One more, with ZIPS - which some here have used as evidence that the Sox may project to be the best team in the AL, if not all of baseball - ostensibly showing Tanaka is a right-handed David Price. Excerpt: ZiPS estimates a mean projection (neutral park/league) of a 3.46 ERA in 190 innings from Tanaka, for an ERA+ of 117 and 3.9 WAR. The 117 ERA+ projected compares favorably to the 124 ERA+ projected for David Price in a neutral park. While Price comes out a little better in the comparison, signing Tanaka has the fringe benefit of not necessitating the Rays stealing some of your best prospects.And if you disagree, don't blame me. ?Szymborski wrote it. Its not a matter of disagreeing so much as it is a matter of not knowing. I just don't think ZIPS projections make very much sense for a player coming over from Japan. I would give it near-zero weight.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 2, 2014 14:36:17 GMT -5
One more from Ben Badler, who ranks the top 10 contenders for Tanaka (he has Boston at #9). Badler is one of the people who took the time to scout Tanaka in person this past year and has said he would rate Tanaka's splitter as "the best in MLB" once he reaches the bigs. Excerpt: The Red Sox have a solid starting rotation for 2014, but their pitching is more vulnerable than advertised. After next season, Jon Lester, John Lackey and Ryan Dempster are free agents. Jake Peavy, barring a 256-inning season that would kick in his $15 million player option for 2015, is also going to hit free agency. Clay Buchholz brings his own question marks after looking like a frontline starter when healthy but throwing slop in the playoffs. Felix Doubront is, at best, a No. 4 starter...But Tanaka would significantly boost their 2014 rotation, perhaps even becoming the team’s top starter. Just as important, as a 25-year-old potential No. 2 starter, Tanaka would represent a significant upgrade for the 2015 season and beyond, exactly the type of player the Red Sox should use their financial advantages to pursue.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 2, 2014 14:40:09 GMT -5
One more, with ZIPS - which some here have used as evidence that the Sox may project to be the best team in the AL, if not all of baseball - ostensibly showing Tanaka is a right-handed David Price. Excerpt: ZiPS estimates a mean projection (neutral park/league) of a 3.46 ERA in 190 innings from Tanaka, for an ERA+ of 117 and 3.9 WAR. The 117 ERA+ projected compares favorably to the 124 ERA+ projected for David Price in a neutral park. While Price comes out a little better in the comparison, signing Tanaka has the fringe benefit of not necessitating the Rays stealing some of your best prospects.And if you disagree, don't blame me. ?Szymborski wrote it. And really all that matters is one front office may agree and look at the age and go nuts. I don't know enough to have my own opinion on what would make sense, but what if the commitments of the past don't apply. 1. The nature of the current available starting pitching environment or lack thereof. 2. Tanaka's age and projections may combine to an offer extending into his mid thirties which may be up to a 10 year offer. 3. The reduction of risk with recent successes in recovery from Tommy John ie Lackey). 4. The unique marketing opportunities, blah blah. 5. The player himself as noted above does have believers and elite projections. I see a Seattle like outlier with a 10/20 offer with maybe two Lackey clause protected years. (Any full year missed gets an option year tacked on at the end at minimum) Interesting that both Szymborski and Badler have Seattle as the front runner. All guessing at this point. The real kiss of death would be if Bowden picked them as the favorites. Then the Mariners would be sure to not get him.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 2, 2014 14:48:56 GMT -5
One more from Ben Badler, who ranks the top 10 contenders for Tanaka (he has Boston at #9). Badler is one of the people who took the time to scout Tanaka in person this past year and has said he would rate Tanaka's splitter as "the best in MLB" once he reaches the bigs. Excerpt: The Red Sox have a solid starting rotation for 2014, but their pitching is more vulnerable than advertised. After next season, Jon Lester, John Lackey and Ryan Dempster are free agents. Jake Peavy, barring a 256-inning season that would kick in his $15 million player option for 2015, is also going to hit free agency. Clay Buchholz brings his own question marks after looking like a frontline starter when healthy but throwing slop in the playoffs. Felix Doubront is, at best, a No. 4 starter...But Tanaka would significantly boost their 2014 rotation, perhaps even becoming the team’s top starter. Just as important, as a 25-year-old potential No. 2 starter, Tanaka would represent a significant upgrade for the 2015 season and beyond, exactly the type of player the Red Sox should use their financial advantages to pursue.You seem to believe the reports you want to believe and ignore the ones like that the Sox see him as a #3 at best. Given that we have about 8 of those guys, there might be better ways to spend $150 million, like maybe on Cliff Lee this summer as an example. Or maybe on a trade and sign with Headley if WMB busts again. There is risk in Tanaka, whether you are willing to look at it or not. It's going to be probably more than double Darvish's money. If he's not a #1 or 2, that's an albatross of a contract.
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