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Masahiro Tanaka (1/22 update: to NYY for 7/$155m)
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Post by Guidas on Jan 2, 2014 15:02:07 GMT -5
One more from Ben Badler, who ranks the top 10 contenders for Tanaka (he has Boston at #9). Badler is one of the people who took the time to scout Tanaka in person this past year and has said he would rate Tanaka's splitter as "the best in MLB" once he reaches the bigs. Excerpt: The Red Sox have a solid starting rotation for 2014, but their pitching is more vulnerable than advertised. After next season, Jon Lester, John Lackey and Ryan Dempster are free agents. Jake Peavy, barring a 256-inning season that would kick in his $15 million player option for 2015, is also going to hit free agency. Clay Buchholz brings his own question marks after looking like a frontline starter when healthy but throwing slop in the playoffs. Felix Doubront is, at best, a No. 4 starter...But Tanaka would significantly boost their 2014 rotation, perhaps even becoming the team’s top starter. Just as important, as a 25-year-old potential No. 2 starter, Tanaka would represent a significant upgrade for the 2015 season and beyond, exactly the type of player the Red Sox should use their financial advantages to pursue.You seem to believe the reports you want to believe and ignore the ones like that the Sox see him as a #3 at best. Given that we have about 8 of those guys, there might be better ways to spend $150 million, like maybe on Cliff Lee this summer as an example. Or maybe on a trade and sign with Headley if WMB busts again. There is risk in Tanaka, whether you are willing to look at it or not. It's going to be probably more than double Darvish's money. If he's not a #1 or 2, that's an albatross of a contract. What I don't believe is "inside word" from Cafardo/Gammo that Sox believe this guy is a #3. Period. I did look at a lot of video FWIW. Pluses: this guy has killer breaking stuff, tremendous control and a FB that sits 92-94 (if you believe Japanese kph guns), and that he's 25. Negatives are that FB is fllllaaaaatttt, the milage on the arm, and that he is using the Japanese ball, which has become more similar to MLB but is more like minor league ball in that it's somewhat easier to grip. My opinion is based on everything I've read from anyone who has seen him live plus my own (untrained) eyes on the video. The rumors and projections to me are popcorn, but they also feed the banter and discussions, which are among the best features of this site.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 2, 2014 15:07:50 GMT -5
I'm curious guidas - what is the largest contract you would be willing to sign Tanaka to?
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jan 2, 2014 15:14:01 GMT -5
You seem to believe the reports you want to believe and ignore the ones like that the Sox see him as a #3 at best. Given that we have about 8 of those guys, there might be better ways to spend $150 million, like maybe on Cliff Lee this summer as an example. Or maybe on a trade and sign with Headley if WMB busts again. There is risk in Tanaka, whether you are willing to look at it or not. It's going to be probably more than double Darvish's money. If he's not a #1 or 2, that's an albatross of a contract. What I don't believe is "inside word" from Cafardo/Gammo that Sox believe this guy is a #3. Period. I did look at a lot of video FWIW. Pluses: this guy has killer breaking stuff, tremendous control and a FB that sits 92-94 (if you believe Japanese kph guns), and that he's 25. Negatives are that FB is fllllaaaaatttt, the milage on the arm, and that he is using the Japanese ball, which has become more similar to MLB but is more like minor league ball in that it's somewhat easier to grip. My opinion is based on everything I've read from anyone who has seen him live plus my own (untrained) eyes on the video. The rumors and projections to me are popcorn, but they also feed the banter and discussions, which are among the best features of this site. If you can explain to me why his workload to date and his sudden drop in his K rate is not going to be an issue moving forward then I'll be more on-board with signing him. Again, his K/9 went from 9.6 to 8.8 to 7.8. His K/BB fell from 8.93 to 5.72. I would have to suspect that major league hitters are better than that of the Japanese league and would have to assume that those numbers would come down even further. That's kind of a scary proposition for a $150 million dollar investment. Plus, is the size of the baseball still different in Japan? I don't recall hearing that they changed, and if they did, how much more up to par is it? I believe scouts weren't worried about Darvish because he had longer fingers and would adjust to MLB regulation baseballs. How does that affect Tanaka?
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Post by kungfuizzy on Jan 2, 2014 15:17:58 GMT -5
I'm curious guidas - what is the largest contract you would be willing to sign Tanaka to? I've been advocating him for about a week now. I do not believe the reports that Tanaka will get 100 million. I think his contract will probably fall into where Anibal Sanchez signed for. Around 5/80 with a performance based 6th year option to bring it to $91-93 million. I would also like to add this. Think of a guy like Buxton or Boegarts or any other highly regarded prospect and tell me how much teams would pay if they were on the open market today. Tanaka is 26 and has the tools to become an ace. He's older than Walker but is it crazy to think that if Walker was a free agent there would be some team that would overpay to secure his talent for the next 5-6 years at a premium rate as opposed to signing a guy like Vargas or Feldman?
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Post by grandsalami on Jan 2, 2014 15:22:50 GMT -5
I'm curious guidas - what is the largest contract you would be willing to sign Tanaka to? I've been advocating him for about a week now. I do not believe the reports that Tanaka will get 100 million. I think his contract will probably fall into where Anibal Sanchez signed for. Around 5/80 with a performance based 6th year option to bring it to $91-93 million. There is a 100% chance his contract is greater then 100mm
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jan 2, 2014 15:24:26 GMT -5
I'm curious guidas - what is the largest contract you would be willing to sign Tanaka to? I've been advocating him for about a week now. I do not believe the reports that Tanaka will get 100 million. I think his contract will probably fall into where Anibal Sanchez signed for. Around 5/80 with a performance based 6th year option to bring it to $91-93 million. I doubt it. When you're as pitching deprived and desperate to putting out a winning product as the Yankees are, there is no way it goes under a $100mil. Not for a 25 year old kid who some are even saying can be a #1, but realistically will be more of a #2. Not to mention the marketability of signing the face of Japanese baseball. I can also see a team like Seattle making a run at him as it would put them in a phenomenal position to compete.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 2, 2014 15:36:21 GMT -5
I'm curious guidas - what is the largest contract you would be willing to sign Tanaka to? Personally I project this guy as a #2 (that's based on all my knowledge of not seeing him in person, not being a professional scout, so fwiw), so, completely dependent upon the physical, as they all are, I would offer: 5 years at $22M a year, with a 6th year team option of $26M, or a $5M buyout. That puts AAV at $23M guaranteed. I would add in sweeteners based on regular season innings pitched (over 200 a year, or 30 starts, whichever CBA allows) that brings potential AAV to $25M a year. I would also add a $2.5M bonus if he passes on pitching in the WBC. Since he's 25 I might be able to be talked into that 6th year, but would prefer to offer it guaranteed (and perhaps even a million more $ guaranteed a year) if he gives me a "Lackey" clause that it drops year 6 to MLB min if there is significant surgery/more than 100 days (i.e. not 100 games) missed consecutively, or wrapped around in a 2 year period (i.e. Aug to following May) as a result of arm issues). Didn't do the out math for MLB starter wage inflation for next 6 years but, if I was a club with a $190+M payroll (where lux tax is heading over next 6 years)+ factoring rich farm, current contract commitments and having multiple players at MLB minimum over next 3-6 years, that seems about right. Not sure that gets it done.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jan 2, 2014 16:35:38 GMT -5
This fangraphs article is not quite so high on Tanaka's projections: www.fangraphs.com/blogs/looking-for-comps-for-masahiro-tanaka/But this same market paid Scott Kazmir $22 million, and I’m not sure Tanaka is actually a significantly lower risk or higher upside pitcher, given what we know about both.If his contract is really anywhere close to 6/120 + 20 posting - I hope the Red Sox pass. The risk, essentially for a prospect, for that much money is just too high for a guy who doesn't compare favorably to Daisuke (pre-posting). Let's wait a year (when the Red Sox actually need a pitcher) and look to tie-up a guy like Homer Bailey, who will be 28, cost less than 150/6 (i hope!) and may have a higher upside than Tanaka (he was the #2 pitching prospect in baseball a few years back and he can touch high 90s).
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 2, 2014 16:44:05 GMT -5
Guidas, you continue to be my favorite poster here dude. Over and over. Funny. Not afraid to buck the tide. Seemingly impervious to broken arrows sticking out of your back. Insightful. Brief if at all possible.
I think a $23 mil AAV probably will qualify you for a few arrows poised for your spinal vertebrae right now, or any remaining part of your body not already injured ( I remember your post on the subject! ).
Getting to the point, you are on target and that is in the range of what will be required in my opinion, or we let him walk right. We may have been born yesterday but it wasn't last night!
I probably would go $126 mil over 7 years. With the kinds of incentives and such you mentioned ideally.
The guys spreading rumors about him being a #3 ( the Redsox FO maybe ) only makes me think they probably will be making a run. I doubt if a single one of us think we pull it off though but at least you see the guy as more than a AAA prospect at best. Your proposal is what it's going to take and do we want to win or not!
Put me down on the first option.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 2, 2014 16:44:13 GMT -5
I'm curious guidas - what is the largest contract you would be willing to sign Tanaka to? I've been advocating him for about a week now. I do not believe the reports that Tanaka will get 100 million. I think his contract will probably fall into where Anibal Sanchez signed for. Around 5/80 with a performance based 6th year option to bring it to $91-93 million. I would also like to add this. Think of a guy like Buxton or Boegarts or any other highly regarded prospect and tell me how much teams would pay if they were on the open market today. Tanaka is 26 and has the tools to become an ace. He's older than Walker but is it crazy to think that if Walker was a free agent there would be some team that would overpay to secure his talent for the next 5-6 years at a premium rate as opposed to signing a guy like Vargas or Feldman? Buxton or Bogaerts are a lot easier to project because of the sample size of prospects coming through the minor leagues compared to 25 year olds coming over from Japan.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 2, 2014 17:03:01 GMT -5
Scott Kazmir's risk is so high that he only got a one-year deal. So, while Cameron might not be sure if Tanaka's risk is higher, I'd guess that every GM in baseball is. Part of that may be groupthink, but more of it is probably the fact that Kazmir fell out of pro baseball for nearly two seasons, and hasn't had a year with 20 starts and an ERA+ over 100 since 2008. For perspective on how long ago that was, Sean Casey was on the Red Sox.
Sean Casey!
So yeah, his peripherals were cool last year and I love a comeback story, but Scott Kazmir has a higher risk than Tanaka.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 2, 2014 17:12:12 GMT -5
Scott Kazmir's risk is so high that he only got a one-year deal. So, while Cameron might not be sure if Tanaka's risk is higher, I'd guess that every GM in baseball is. Part of that may be groupthink, but more of it is probably the fact that Kazmir fell out of pro baseball for nearly two seasons, and hasn't had a year with 20 starts and an ERA+ over 100 since 2008. For perspective on how long ago that was, Sean Casey was on the Red Sox. Sean Casey! So yeah, his peripherals were cool last year and I love a comeback story, but Scott Kazmir has a higher risk than Tanaka. Actually, 2 year $22 million for Kazmir. The risk is more about money and years than anything else. Most teams can live with a 2 year disaster (worst case scenario).
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Post by jmei on Jan 2, 2014 17:17:25 GMT -5
While I agree that Kazmir is a bad comp, it's true that Tanaka pretty much has to stay healthy and pitch like a top-20 starter to justify a 25m+ AAV (which may be what it takes once the posting tax is included). That's ambitious for a player who (a) has never faced MLB-caliber competition, (b) saw a pretty steep decline in his K rate over the last three years, and (c) has a lot of mileage on his arm.
ADD: OK, with inflation, maybe he only has to be a top-30 type by the end of his contract. But that's still a lot to expect, and any hint of underperformance or injury makes it really tough for him to "earn" (read: be worth in a $/WAR context) his contract.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 2, 2014 17:21:20 GMT -5
Guidas, you continue to be my favorite poster here dude. Over and over. Funny. Not afraid to buck the tide. Seemingly impervious to broken arrows sticking out of your back. Insightful. Brief if at all possible. I think a $23 mil AAV probably will qualify you for a few arrows poised for your spinal vertebrae right now, or any remaining part of your body not already injured ( I remember your post on the subject! ). Getting to the point, you are on target and that is in the range of what will be required in my opinion, or we let him walk right. We may have been born yesterday but it wasn't last night! I probably would go $126 mil over 7 years. With the kinds of incentives and such you mentioned ideally. The guys spreading rumors about him being a #3 ( the Redsox FO maybe ) only makes me think they probably will be making a run. I doubt if a single one of us think we pull it off though but at least you see the guy as more than a AAA prospect at best. Your proposal is what it's going to take and do we want to win or not! Put me down on the first option. So that's two of us, and thelavarnwayguy seems particularly insightful and wise with his comments (i.e. thanks dude). As for the arrows, I don't say anything here I wouldn't say in a conversation face to face, but I never take disagreement personally. So someone disagrees with my opinion - help me change it or we agree to disagree. Isn't that the essence of interpreting raw data when it's applied to human performance (i.e. watching and analyzing baseball)? One man sees Allan Webster as a budding number one who just needs to tame the control demon; another man sees him as a pen arm at best. We're both looking at the same numbers and watching the same games. And front offices are similar (except in Philly where they just look at pitcher wins and position player RBI while they watch TVLand). Honestly, I think someone will go nuts and offer this guy Grienke's contract or better. But since Chavopepe2 asked, based on the info I value, that was my answer.
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Post by James Dunne on Jan 2, 2014 17:22:25 GMT -5
For some reason I thought it was one year - thank you for the clarification. Either way, he got less in total years and money than Phil Hughes. Now one could argue that's because the Twins overpaid for Hughes and it only takes one team to overpay someone, and that's true. But it takes all 30 teams to "underpay" someone. The market for Kazmir showed him to be an obviously high risk player. What is the lowest contract that you'd say that every single team would sign Tanaka for? Maybe four years, $40 million? Considering his age, upside, the scarcity of available starting talent, and the fact that every team in baseball sees itself as trying to contend in 2016 and 2017, I think every team does that, even down-market ones that are tight against their budgets. So the fact that he sees Kazmir's upside as being as high as Tanaka's probably is a sign that he's higher than most on Kazmir, and the fact that he thinks their risks are the same is a sign that he might be delusional and/or crazy. Cameron is simply flat wrong with that paragraph. While I agree that Kazmir is a bad comp, it's true that Tanaka pretty much has to stay healthy and pitch like a top-20 starter to justify a 25m+ AAV (which may be what it takes once the posting tax is included). That's ambitious for a Japanese player who (a) has never faced MLB-caliber competition, (b) saw a pretty steep decline in his K rate over the last three years, and (c) has a lot of mileage on his arm. ADD: OK, with inflation, maybe he only has to be a top-30 type by the end of his contract. But that's still a lot to expect, and any hint of underperformance or injury makes it really tough for him to "earn" (read: be worth in a $/WAR context) his contract. Yeah, I agree with all of this. If I was a GM I'd be pretty queasy about the idea of giving him $25 million AAV. But I'd certainly be willing to go a lot longer and put a much higher AAV than Kazmir, without a second thought.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 2, 2014 17:40:22 GMT -5
While I agree that Kazmir is a bad comp, it's true that Tanaka pretty much has to stay healthy and pitch like a top-20 starter to justify a 25m+ AAV (which may be what it takes once the posting tax is included). That's ambitious for a Japanese player who (a) has never faced MLB-caliber competition, (b) saw a pretty steep decline in his K rate over the last three years, and (c) has a lot of mileage on his arm. ADD: OK, with inflation, maybe he only has to be a top-30 type by the end of his contract. But that's still a lot to expect, and any hint of underperformance or injury makes it really tough for him to "earn" (read: be worth in a $/WAR context) his contract. Devil's Advocate: Darvish has done that all so far, minus the K rate decline in Japanese leagues. But Darvish is an elite pitcher. Despite the decline, Tanaka's FB velo has reportedly remained static or ticked up in those three years. Also, though Tanaka pitched 34 more innings in the Japanese league than Darvish, Tanaka did amass only 12 fewer Ks (again, Darvish mas macho); but Tanaka also issued 58 fewer walks in more innings and did it all with an ERA that is 0.31 higher than Darvish's. Why the decline in Ks if his velocity and control are as good if not better than they were 3 years ago? (and I agree, this is a concern and this is where I hope that the Sox did their homework this time). Could it be the league is catching up to him via video? Could it be that he's just a very good and not elite pitcher (which we know)? Or could it be he's losing it due to underlying injury? In person scouting would help a lot with interpreting some of this, and of course the all important pre-deal finalization physical will likely answer the injury question a bit more thoroughly and further define risk (is this called the "Napoli Effect yet? Maybe we should start a new trend and bounce it off Verducci…).
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Post by jmei on Jan 2, 2014 18:03:45 GMT -5
Well, Tanaka is universally regarded as an inferior pitcher to Darvish, and Darvish is pretty much the definition of a player hitting his ceiling. It's like comparing Rubby De La Rosa to Pedro-- if you squint, you see some similarities, but comparing a guy to an outlier like that is just setting yourself up for disappointment.
That said, if he pitches as well as Kuroda or Iwakuma (to whom he is often compared), I'm sure his team would be thrilled even if he falls short of "earning" his contract in a $/WAR sense. But if you're paying someone that much, there's basically no chance of getting any surplus value, and a great chance (because of the intrinsic injury risks of pitchers) of significant underperformance. I'm leery of big-money contracts to pitchers in general, and Tanaka presents additional red flags on top of that.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jan 2, 2014 18:20:17 GMT -5
What I don't believe is "inside word" from Cafardo/Gammo that Sox believe this guy is a #3. Period. For whatever it's worth, I'm 95% sure this was from Speier.
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Post by ozebaseball on Jan 2, 2014 18:24:51 GMT -5
Plus, is the size of the baseball still different in Japan? I don't recall hearing that they changed, and if they did, how much more up to par is it? I believe scouts weren't worried about Darvish because he had longer fingers and would adjust to MLB regulation baseballs. How does that affect Tanaka? I am not in a position to find the article, but I read recently that before this year the balls in NPB were manipulated to favour higher offensive output. So yes, the balls are still different. As to how they are different, I am not sure. But when discussing the different balls I wouldn't be relying on parallels from Darvish or Matsuzaka's time in NPB because they are different again.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jan 2, 2014 18:35:57 GMT -5
The top-end projection of 10 years is way, way beyond sane. That albatross could be hanging there for a long, long time. On the other hand, 5 years only takes him to age 30. I think he'll easily be signed for more than that. It's probably a 6-7 year contract with an AAV of somewhere between $18 and $22 million. That's still a huge amount of loot for someone who's never thrown a major league inning. Still, I think we all know that there's some team that will pay that, and probably more than one.
The last few years have seen a serious re-evaluation of the worth of Japanese pitchers. There are a good number who've shown that they can perform at the highest level: Nomo, Okajima, Sasaki, Matsuzaka, Kuroda, Darvish, Tazawa and Uehara. I think it's becoming a lot easier to figure out what the contours of those pitchers look like, and find others who have some of that same mojo.
This contract will still far eclipse anything that's been seen for any of those guys. To deny the risk involved would be very foolish. The CBA has changed the terms of discourse. You can be saddled with costs that will cripple you and compromise your ability to compete in the future if you're not careful. Even the NYs of the world will have think twice and take a long, deep breath.
All that said, the money will probably be there.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jan 2, 2014 18:51:04 GMT -5
My take on the declining K percentage is that his out pitch is probably that great split we keep hearing about and opposing players might be catching up to him a little and maybe not striking out as much as a result of not being fooled as much. Look at that walk percentage though and the 1.27 ERA, the 24-0 record. The guy appears to be able to keep players off base and pitch with men on base when they do get on. He knows how to pitch. And he knows how to win.
My biggest concern is that guys will guess fastball and take one out quite a bit. That is something that is going to happen but at least he won't walk many and the situation is probably under control as a result.
I know it's tempting to look at it this way but what if the guy really is Koji with better stuff? He might just be that guy, at 25 years old and his first few years here he might be off the charts great and I want to win now folks. Tanaka might be the most valuable guy to sign this off season bar none except probably Cano. He might well be tremendous for the next several years take some team into the playoffs and beyond. He might be that much of a game changer and isn't that what we want on this team? Guys who can make plays. At this time. That is why I am willing to pay this guy even though I know he probably doesn't meet the needed AAV year after year. If we are going to spend the money, roll the dice with someone who is a real difference maker.
I remember Guidas saying a few weeks ago that throwing the split doesn't increase injury risk and that makes sense to me ( as compared to guys throwing sliders and curves ). And I'm just throwing this out there but to me, pitchers who seem to rely on a great change seem to have more consistency in their numbers. I like guys like Kuroda who put up consistently great numbers year after year.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jan 2, 2014 19:19:10 GMT -5
And he might not be that guy. I don't want to pay 6 x $25mill+ to find out.
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Post by Guidas on Jan 2, 2014 20:51:40 GMT -5
And he might not be that guy. I don't want to pay 6 x $25mill+ to find out. Part of my point - if they did their homework and scouted this guy, there will be less "finding out." There's always an unknown with any player but one would hope they scouted this guy enough to have high confidence in whatever they decided to do.
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Post by jimed14 on Jan 2, 2014 20:53:48 GMT -5
And he might not be that guy. I don't want to pay 6 x $25mill+ to find out. Part of my point - if they did their homework and scouted this guy, there will be less "finding out." There's always an unknown with any player but one would hope they scouted this guy enough to have high confidence in whatever they decided to do. How can you just assume that prudent scouting absolutely confirms the best possible scenario? And then you will argue with anyone who doesn't believe that?
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Post by Guidas on Jan 2, 2014 21:00:35 GMT -5
Part of my point - if they did their homework and scouted this guy, there will be less "finding out." There's always an unknown with any player but one would hope they scouted this guy enough to have high confidence in whatever they decided to do. How can you just assume that prudent scouting absolutely confirms the best possible scenario? And then you will argue with anyone who doesn't believe that? All I am saying is it minimizes "just finding out." Whether you're all in, completely out, or in up to a point on a player with high market value, you had better have scouted that player well to make a well informed decision.
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