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10/13 Red Sox vs. Tigers ALCS Game 2 Thread
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Post by ray88h66 on Oct 14, 2013 17:55:19 GMT -5
Nava is the Rodney Dangerfield of baseball. Can't get no respect. I'd have him in the line-up just to drive the pitch count up. Have to get to the pen.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Oct 14, 2013 18:13:39 GMT -5
Agree with all of that about Nava (I wanted him playing in the last game), but let's remember that this is the playoffs and gamesmanship by managers is part of the deal. Farrell saying this could mean nothing ... so there's no reason to get upset about it. Yet.
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Post by jmei on Oct 14, 2013 18:23:06 GMT -5
Agree with all of that about Nava (I wanted him playing in the last game), but let's remember that this is the playoffs and gamesmanship by managers is part of the deal. Farrell saying this could mean nothing ... so there's no reason to get upset about it. Yet. Yeah, this feels like when Farrell said before Game 4 of the ALDS that if he had to do it again, he still wouldn't pinch-hit Xander for Drew versus McGee. Well, that night, a pretty damn similar situation occurred and Xander pinch-hit for Drew. Farrell has stupid tendencies, but when all the chips are on the table, he'll apparently take what I assume to be strongly-worded advice from the front office. Hopefully that happens again tomorrow.
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ericmvan
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Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,952
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 14, 2013 19:12:42 GMT -5
Verlander's reverse split the last three years appears to be real, but it's dwarfed by how much better Nava hits RHP than Gomes does.
Ross over Salty is more defensible. Yes, Salty hits RHP vastly better than Ross does, but Salty is 2/15 with 8 K (7 swinging) against Verlander (Ross has never faced him). The last two times he faced him, in 2012, Verlander had off nights (8 ER allowed in 11 IP) and Salty was still 2/6, 3 swinging K, GB out, and one of the singles was a grounder.
While we're talking about Verlander, I looked at his last three years of game logs (including post-season) to see if there was any correlation of days rest or preceding pitch count to effectiveness (using Game Score, which averaged 61 in these games, as a measure of the latter). I looked at the two starts previous to the one in question. Pitch counts had no effect. Days rest, however, was highly significant (p < .03, n = 96, with all factors in the regression p < .03 as well). The resulting pattern is not what you'd expect, though. When pitching with 4 days rest twice in a row, or 5 days rest twice in a row, the regression model predicts average game scores of 67; the actual averages were 68 and 67, respectively. With 4 days rest, then 5 days, he had an average game score of 57, and with 5 days rest, then 4, he had a 56, and the regression model predicts both of those.
So, he likes to keep a regular routine in terms of throwing between starts, etc., whether that's 4 or 5 days of rest. When he has to change his routine from what he did before his previous outing, he subsequently loses about 10 points off his game score, on average. Unfortunately, he'll be on regular 4 days rest for the third and fourth times in a row in this series.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 14, 2013 20:53:53 GMT -5
Now I have a different question, or actually, set of questions.
Last night: Bottom of the 8th, 5-1 Tigers, bases loaded, 2 outs, Ortiz up. Why not just walk him intentionally? Now it's 5-2, tying run on base, 2 outs, Carp up. Which is the more dangerous situation -- pitching to Ortiz with the tying run at the plate, or pitching to Carp with the tying run at 1B?
Now ask the same question in the hypothetical situation that Napoli, rather than Carp, is hitting 5th. If you don't do it with Carp on deck because you're too scared of Carp, do you do it with Napoli on deck?
Or ask a 3rd question: What if the situation was reversed in Detroit: 5-1 Sox, bottom of the 8th, Tigers manage to load the bases with 2 out, and get Cabrera to the plate as the tying run. Do you pitch to him?
This is a really legitimate question, because if you can somehow get out of the 8th inning with ANY kind of lead, you have the bottom of the order up for the opponent in the 9th.
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Post by jmei on Oct 14, 2013 21:39:36 GMT -5
Yes, you absolutely pitch to a team's cornerstone hitter with two outs, the bases loaded, and down four. Even Ortiz and Cabrera make outs more than half the time, and home runs are still a very infrequent result for both (6.7% for Cabrera, 5% for Ortiz). Napoli (or Carp) and Fielder are still very good hitters hitting behind them as well. You'd be hard pressed to find any statistical model which suggests that you're better off intentionally walking in a run.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 14, 2013 23:50:32 GMT -5
Gomes looks like the guy you want out there in a high pressure situation. A tough guy who can handle the emotional pressure. But you know what, imagine the pressure Nava has been in his entire life. When there was a no hitter going the other night who broke it up? Nava. He hasn't had much PT but the time he has had he was in against outstanding pitching yet he had 2 hits and I believe 3 walks wasn't it. Not great stats but look at the pitching he faced as compared to Gomes. And what did Gomes do last game. It was 3 Ks and an infield hit wasn't it?
Consider Nava's post season line:
Average: .250 OBP: .455 Walk rate: 27.3%
Gomes:
Average: .231 OBP: .333 Walk Rate: 13.3%
Neither of them had any significant pop and Nava faced the tougher pitching. Farrell is disrespecting Nava to not play him again. Gomes may be his BFF but he should play Nava Tuesday. Especially in Detroit's stadium.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 14, 2013 23:52:59 GMT -5
Drew is currently 2 for 21. Hello!
He has hit the ball hard a couple times though. He has been decent in the field except for the one error.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 15, 2013 1:20:30 GMT -5
Old Tiger stadium, would say yeah, where the upper bleachers in RF overhung the field in RF and people questioned the legitimacy of how deep it really was to that upper deck even. The new stadium. It's supposed to be built along the same lines, though not as many ball go out to RF and it doesn't have that over hanging section in RF does it?
Also. Not exactly sure.. But wasn't it Verlander that Gomes took deep at Tiger stadium the only trip there during the regular season> Remember he hit one to LF there and was thinking it was off of him, not positive of course.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Oct 15, 2013 1:40:31 GMT -5
Drew is currently 2 for 21. Hello! He has hit the ball hard a couple times though. He has been decent in the field except for the one error. I should hate to say it because I was so critical of Drew earlier in the season, but he has been superb in the field, as good as anyone. He just shouldn't hit against LHPs. He's going to get a good contract.
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Post by mattpicard on Oct 15, 2013 2:08:04 GMT -5
Also. Not exactly sure.. But wasn't it Verlander that Gomes took deep at Tiger stadium the only trip there during the regular season> Remember he hit one to LF there and was thinking it was off of him, not positive of course. Nope. Gomes was 0 for 4 against Verlander that game (he later doubled off Benoit). He didn't homer at all in the series, nor did Verlander give up a homer in his start.
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Post by hammerhead on Oct 15, 2013 7:19:35 GMT -5
Not to be a knitpicky pain in the ass ....... But
why are we discussing game 3 in the game 2 thread?
I have as much of a issue with starting Ross as I do starting Gomes. Has Ross become Lester's personal catcher? Salty got the game winning hit and is actually a threat against righties. I know Ross is superior defensively, but this team is having issues hitting not having problems with the running game. Ross has looked over matched in every AB , I can't imagine he'd be better against Verlander.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Oct 15, 2013 7:27:26 GMT -5
Yes, you absolutely pitch to a team's cornerstone hitter with two outs, the bases loaded, and down four. Even Ortiz and Cabrera make outs more than half the time, and home runs are still a very infrequent result for both (6.7% for Cabrera, 5% for Ortiz). Napoli (or Carp) and Fielder are still very good hitters hitting behind them as well. You'd be hard pressed to find any statistical model which suggests that you're better off intentionally walking in a run. What about men on 2nd and 3rd in the same situation, home team down 3? Or man on 2nd, home team down 2? Don't you see the big bopper walked routinely in those situations? Is the possibility of a force play that important that it's worth putting the tying run on base? Otherwise, it's exactly an equivalent situation as the bases loaded situation.
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Post by jmei on Oct 15, 2013 8:50:21 GMT -5
Yes, you absolutely pitch to a team's cornerstone hitter with two outs, the bases loaded, and down four. Even Ortiz and Cabrera make outs more than half the time, and home runs are still a very infrequent result for both (6.7% for Cabrera, 5% for Ortiz). Napoli (or Carp) and Fielder are still very good hitters hitting behind them as well. You'd be hard pressed to find any statistical model which suggests that you're better off intentionally walking in a run. What about men on 2nd and 3rd in the same situation, home team down 3? Or man on 2nd, home team down 2? Don't you see the big bopper walked routinely in those situations? Is the possibility of a force play that important that it's worth putting the tying run on base? Otherwise, it's exactly an equivalent situation as the bases loaded situation. Well, the Red Sox had that exact situation in Game 3 of the ALDS when Longoria was up with two outs in the fifth, second and third, and Buchholz pitched to him. That decision turned out badly, but it doesn't mean it was the wrong move at the time-- the IBB would have increased the run expectancy in that situation. Farrell and the front office have generally recognized that intentional walks are generally bad moves, and as a team they issued the fewest intentional walks in recent history. They especially avoided issuing intentional walks when they held the lead, which is the right move. But, to answer your question, other managers do so both because of the force play but, more importantly, because that move doesn't result in a run with 100% certainty like your first hypothetical did.
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