SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
10/20-10/21 Red Sox vs. Cardinals World Series Offday Thread
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 22, 2013 15:14:35 GMT -5
I mean you need to take into account the Cardinals played the regular season without the DH. In boston they'll have craig and adams. Also, they pitched to a pitcher batting.
That definitely makes it harder to compare the two solely based on stats. You have guys like AJ Burnett go to the NL and dominate after sub par seasons in the AL.
|
|
|
Post by godot on Oct 22, 2013 15:32:25 GMT -5
The Cardinals are a pretty suspect defensive team as well. I think the areas we can compare are: Manager/coaching: drawDefense: Red SoxStarting Pitching: Cardinals - slight edgeRelief Pitching: CardinalsCloser: Red SoxLine-up: drawBase running: Red SoxBench: Red SoxI think people are underestimating the St Louis Lineup. With Craig and Allen both in the lineup; it's deep and powerful. They aren't the typical NL team that will come to an AL park and get screwed because the Sox have Ortiz at DH and they have some utility infielder there. They scored 783 runs playing most of their games with the pitcher hitting. That was 3rd in baseball, obviously the Red Sox were first, but again they play in the AL with the DH almost every game. Big difference. They also put the ball in play a lot. Tough outs up and down the lineup. The Sox may be more dangerous in a lot of spots, but certain guys like Napoli, Gomes, Salty and Drew go through stretches where they become K machines. I don't think St Louis lineup is better than Boston, but right now, I'm not convinced Boston's is better than theirs. I'll have to look a little more deeply into each of their players individual numbers because comparing team stats from the AL to NL is difficult. What he said about the hitting, on the spot.
|
|
|
Post by burythehammer on Oct 22, 2013 16:23:33 GMT -5
Yeah, there's no way the lineup is a draw, I'm sorry. Especially with the upgrade of Bogaerts over WMB. The Cardinals have a good lineup but I don't see that at all.
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 22, 2013 16:25:59 GMT -5
Yeah, there's no way the lineup is a draw, I'm sorry. Especially with the upgrade of Bogaerts over WMB. The Cardinals have a good lineup but I don't see that at all. Well in STL we will have Ortiz at first and no Napoli. Lester and Drew will likely be hitting as well.
|
|
|
Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 22, 2013 17:25:13 GMT -5
Yeah, there's no way the lineup is a draw, I'm sorry. Especially with the upgrade of Bogaerts over WMB. The Cardinals have a good lineup but I don't see that at all. Well in STL we will have Ortiz at first and no Napoli. Lester and Drew will likely be hitting as well. It would really be nice to see WMB/Bogaerts at fenway, then Drew play SS/Bogaerts play 3b at St. louis on that hard IF and be PH for properly when the time cam for later on in the game when the time called for and Bogaerts moved to short. Wonder how slim the chances are for that scenario to play out? between 0 and none?
|
|
|
Post by grandsalami on Oct 22, 2013 18:13:39 GMT -5
“@peteabe: Interesting that Farrell said "as of today" there were no roster changes. Doubront throwing a sim game on the eve of Game 1 is curious”
“@sean_McAdam: Lots of intrigue re: Sox rotation now. Trainers conferring, Peavy unsure whether he goes GM 3 or 4 & Doubront suddenly throwing to hitters.”
“@sean_McAdam: Another sign of some possible upheaval: Matt Thornton, not active for ALDS and ALCS, throwing off mound.” “@sean_McAdam: There is some concern over diminished stuff with Buchholz. No single incident with him, but Sox protecting themselves by looking at options.”
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 22, 2013 18:58:55 GMT -5
Yeah, there's no way the lineup is a draw, I'm sorry. Especially with the upgrade of Bogaerts over WMB. The Cardinals have a good lineup but I don't see that at all. It's not far from a draw. The difference between the Sox' offense and the Cards' offense was the DH spot vs the pitcher, and keep in mind that Fenway historically is more of a hitters' park than St. Louis. If Craig is reasonably healthy and when the Sox lose Napoli to the bench in St. Louis that makes the lineups even closer. Bogaerts is definitely an upgrade to WMB and I hope they move him up higher in the order, particularly in St. Louis. But Adams seems to be coming into his own, too. The Cards don't have many "premier" hitters, but they have depth up and down the lineup. They only have one dead spot and that's SS. The Tigers had the more "fearsome" middle of the order but Cabrera was injured and Fielder flat out choked, but beyond five spots in the order the Tigers had a lot of dead spots in the lineup. The Cards don't have those deadspots. The Cards also have an excellent bullpen. Koji is otherworldly, but Rosenthal thus far has been a lot better than Benoit or Rodney and what makes the Cards' pen potentially more dangerous is their depth. The Sox have excellence in Koji and Breslow and Tazawa has been spotted correctly. The Sox don't have a dependable LOOGY they can bring in during the sixth inning as Morales has shown. The Sox have a much deeper bench than the Cards and are a better baserunning team, however Molina's arm can negate some of the basestealing advantage the Sox have. And the Sox, I believe, are superior defensively. Wainright is a horse, and he does more than just throw innings. He's a guy who's capable of starting in Games 1 and 5 and still pitch in relief in Game 7. Wacha has been untouchable, and given how fast he's shot up through the minors, he might be like the Bogaerts of pitching right now. Kelly and Lynn are hittable, but they're not much different than Lackey and Peavy, and now with the possibility of Buchholz being injured, you're adding Doubront to the mix. The Sox will have their hands full to say the least. Honestly I think the Cards have the edge, but I've been wrong so many times, I hope I'm wrong one more time this season.
|
|
|
Post by beasleyrockah on Oct 22, 2013 19:34:33 GMT -5
These are the two best teams in each league, both are fairly healthy, and both are capable of winning the World Series. Since the Red Sox have homefield advantage they are the slight favorites here. If it was switched I'd give the slight edge to the Cardinals. If we're regressing the Red Sox offense based on the DH and Fenway, lets regress the Cardinals pitching for avoiding the DH/Fenway/AL East. Can't have it both ways.
|
|
|
Post by mainesox on Oct 22, 2013 19:55:44 GMT -5
The Boston Offense is superior to St. Louis' the question is by how much. Craig has been out for a long time and has been unable to face MLB pitching. To expect him to not "miss a beat" is a little bit presumptuous. The Red Sox had the best wOBA (.347) and best wRC+ (115) in baseball. The Cardinals were 10th (0.322) and 7th (106), respectively. If you look at WAR, the Red Sox edge increases slightly based on superior baserunning and defense (36.6 vs. 23.3). Pitching-wise: SP FIP, Cardinals = 3.45, Red Sox = 3.96 RP FIP, Cardinals = 3.26, Red Sox = 3.59Taking into account the quality of the offenses they face makes things look a lot closer though: SP FIP-, Cardinals = 94, Red Sox = 96 RP FIP-, Cardinals = 89, Red Sox = 87 Both teams' overall pitching staff had a 93 FIP- on the season.
|
|
|
Post by johnsilver52 on Oct 22, 2013 20:02:19 GMT -5
Wainright Vs Lester is the game that worries me most in the 1st 2 game series. Wainright is flat out tough. Farrell made a wise choice in throwing lackey out there in game 2. His dominance at fenway, extensive playoff experience, plus probably IMO the most prepared starter on the staff going into his games makes him the best bet vs any opponent in a game this off season.
Hopefully those front 2 can save the pen the 1st 2 games and go 7 innings at least because have a feeling both Peavy and Bucholz are only going to be dealing 5 plus in their games.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Oct 22, 2013 20:12:02 GMT -5
I haven't looked up the numbers myself and don't have the time to do so now but I've heard the Cardinals struggle vs left handed pitching, which helps Lester in his matchup and could explain Doubront getting a look. Do they think Clay could be more effective out of the bullpen in shirt stretches right now? God knows the Sox could probably use someone else there.... Doubtful
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 22, 2013 20:38:08 GMT -5
Wainright Vs Lester is the game that worries me most in the 1st 2 game series. Wainright is flat out tough. Farrell made a wise choice in throwing lackey out there in game 2. His dominance at fenway, extensive playoff experience, plus probably IMO the most prepared starter on the staff going into his games makes him the best bet vs any opponent in a game this off season. Hopefully those front 2 can save the pen the 1st 2 games and go 7 innings at least because have a feeling both Peavy and Bucholz are only going to be dealing 5 plus in their games. That second game at LA he got slapped around by the Dodgers a bit. I saw the whole game. I'm more worried about Wacha than Wainwright. I think Wacha and Bogaerts could be the X factors for this series. Taking Clay out of this rotation really worries me though if that ends up happening. I'd rather see 5 innings of Buch than Doubront (who usually gave us 6 max anyway in the regular season).
|
|
|
Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 22, 2013 20:45:51 GMT -5
These are the two best teams in each league, both are fairly healthy, and both are capable of winning the World Series. Since the Red Sox have homefield advantage they are the slight favorites here. If it was switched I'd give the slight edge to the Cardinals. If we're regressing the Red Sox offense based on the DH and Fenway, lets regress the Cardinals pitching for avoiding the DH/Fenway/AL East. Can't have it both ways. That's fine. Regress the Cards pitching a bit. I still think they have better pitching depth, especially if something is up with Buchholz. The Sox and Cardinals have very comparable lineups. The Sox have a better bench, more team speed, and better defense. I think the Cards' have the better starting pitching matchups if Buchholz is injured - strange how the Sox haven't announced him as the #3 starter yet. If this is the case, this will need to be Peavy's chance to make up for his last start as he could be needed for both Game 3 and a potential Game 7.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 22, 2013 23:54:58 GMT -5
These are the two best teams in each league, both are fairly healthy, and both are capable of winning the World Series. Since the Red Sox have homefield advantage they are the slight favorites here. If it was switched I'd give the slight edge to the Cardinals. If we're regressing the Red Sox offense based on the DH and Fenway, lets regress the Cardinals pitching for avoiding the DH/Fenway/AL East. Can't have it both ways. That's fine. Regress the Cards pitching a bit. I still think they have better pitching depth, especially if something is up with Buchholz. The Sox and Cardinals have very comparable lineups. The Sox have a better bench, more team speed, and better defense. I think the Cards' have the better starting pitching matchups if Buchholz is injured - strange how the Sox haven't announced him as the #3 starter yet. If this is the case, this will need to be Peavy's chance to make up for his last start as he could be needed for both Game 3 and a potential Game 7. My own feeling is that Doubront would be starting on the Cardinals. He can be quite good when he's on, though he does go through tough stretches. So if Buchholz runs out of gas, it's not as if the Sox are devoid of options. And it doesn't hurt that the Cardinals batted all of .238 against LH pitching this year (though you wont get Kershaw to believe that). As for the Cards' depth, I watched Lynn get hammered a few times and Kelly is reachable as well. So I don't think it's a cinch the matchups are better. Wainright is very good. Wacha has good stuff certainly, but the Dodgers never came close to testing him given their lousy at bats. The injuries to Kemp and Ramirez really exposed that lineup. If Lester and Lackey are on then it's by no means a cinch for St. Louis. The first two may be very tight games. If Buchholz pitches the third game, and Peavy the fourth, I think they match up well with the Cards' 3 & 4. That's if the team is willing to pull them before they get into trouble. There's also lots of chatter about how the Sox lose out with no DH in St. Louis, but how about the Cards? They have exactly the same problem in that either Craig or Adams plays, but not both. As for strategy: given that all the Cards' starters are right-handed, it would seem to make a lot of sense to start Nava in those games - with the caveat that he's un-injured. That way you can use Gomes (and Napoli if he's on the bench) against the left-handers, Segrist and Choate, at critical times. That would seem to make some sense. But that's just my thoughts, and for all the years I've been posting here, they've yet to call me. So it goes.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 23, 2013 4:53:26 GMT -5
“@peteabe: Interesting that Farrell said "as of today" there were no roster changes. Doubront throwing a sim game on the eve of Game 1 is curious” Jesus Christ on a pogo stick (as a friend of mine likes to say), Pete Abraham, it may be the least curious thing in the history of humanity (in a tie with billions of others). Today was Tuesday, four days rest brings us to Sunday, the expected starter for Sunday is Jake Peavy, Peavy lasted three innings in his last start, Doubront is your long reliever, and what's more, he's lefthanded, and the Cardinals hit .238 / .301 / .371 as a team vs. LHP, as opposed to .280 / .343 / .412 versus RHP. Not having pitch a sim game would have been curious. Abraham can't be that stupid, so I think this is a case of tweeting before thinking. Admittedly, this is also consistent with concerns about Buccholz. If he can't go in game 3, then Lester has to start 1, 4, and 7, Lackey 2 and 6, Peavy 3, and Doubront or Buchholz (if he merely needed extra time) 5.
|
|
jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,980
|
Post by jimoh on Oct 23, 2013 6:25:32 GMT -5
“@peteabe: Interesting that Farrell said "as of today" there were no roster changes. Doubront throwing a sim game on the eve of Game 1 is curious” Jesus Christ on a pogo stick (as a friend of mine likes to say), Pete Abraham, it may be the least curious thing in the history of humanity (in a tie with billions of others). Today was Tuesday, four days rest brings us to Sunday, the expected starter for Sunday is Jake Peavy, Peavy lasted three innings in his last start, Doubront is your long reliever, and what's more, he's lefthanded, and the Cardinals hit .238 / .301 / .371 as a team vs. LHP, as opposed to .280 / .343 / .412 versus RHP. Not having pitch a sim game would have been curious. Abraham can't be that stupid, so I think this is a case of tweeting before thinking. Admittedly, this is also consistent with concerns about Buccholz. If he can't go in game 3, then Lester has to start 1, 4, and 7, Lackey 2 and 6, Peavy 3, and Doubront or Buchholz (if he merely needed extra time) 5. Unless they are down 3-0 (absit omen) and maybe even then, I would think that the chance that Lester starts both Saturday and Wednesday, on three days rest, are close to zero. That he would start Saturday, Wednesday, and Sunday is definitely impossible. I think this is a case of posting without thinking.
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Oct 23, 2013 9:49:41 GMT -5
Jesus Christ on a pogo stick (as a friend of mine likes to say), Pete Abraham, it may be the least curious thing in the history of humanity (in a tie with billions of others). Today was Tuesday, four days rest brings us to Sunday, the expected starter for Sunday is Jake Peavy, Peavy lasted three innings in his last start, Doubront is your long reliever, and what's more, he's lefthanded, and the Cardinals hit .238 / .301 / .371 as a team vs. LHP, as opposed to .280 / .343 / .412 versus RHP. Not having pitch a sim game would have been curious. Abraham can't be that stupid, so I think this is a case of tweeting before thinking. Admittedly, this is also consistent with concerns about Buccholz. If he can't go in game 3, then Lester has to start 1, 4, and 7, Lackey 2 and 6, Peavy 3, and Doubront or Buchholz (if he merely needed extra time) 5. Unless they are down 3-0 (absit omen) and maybe even then, I would think that the chance that Lester starts both Saturday and Wednesday, on three days rest, are close to zero. That he would start Saturday, Wednesday, and Sunday is definitely impossible. I think this is a case of posting without thinking. Is he the one posting without thinking here? Lester pitched Friday. He's going tonight on his normal four days.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,931
|
Post by ericmvan on Oct 24, 2013 7:58:20 GMT -5
Unless they are down 3-0 (absit omen) and maybe even then, I would think that the chance that Lester starts both Saturday and Wednesday, on three days rest, are close to zero. I think this is a case of posting without thinking. I probably over-reacted in saying that Lester would need to start 3 times if Buchholz is on the shelf, but Lester started the last game of the 2011 season on 3 days rest and was much better than in any of his three horrendous previous starts. If they were down 3-0, he would certainly get the call on 3 days rest. I wouldn't be completely surprised if he starts it if we get down 2-1. Well, yes, because Saturday is actually game 3, next Wednesday is game 6, and there is no game the following Sunday.
|
|
|
Post by hammerhead on Oct 24, 2013 8:24:06 GMT -5
Just spit-balling here , but what about the idea of using Buchholz in a couple of 2 inning bullpen stints if needed. If you could get him a clean inning, for example Doubront goes 5, Buchholz goes 2 which gets you to the backend of the pen.
At least that would give you the option of using him in whichever game you need more innings . If Peavy can't get through the mids or if Doubront tires or is rusty.
WEEI article today is saying that Buchholz would pitch game 4. The idea of Peavy in a possible game 7 is frightening.
|
|
|