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Jacoby Ellsbury nearing 7 yr/$153mm deal w/MFY
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Post by nebraska4sox on Oct 31, 2013 23:14:11 GMT -5
The general concensus is that Ells is going to manning centerfield for another team next year. While I can't say I disagree, where do you all think he will end up? I really think he will be a Cub.
His relationship with Theo can't hurt that, the cubs have the money to pay him and he would go there and be the "guy"
Have also read a lot about the Mets signing him as well
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Post by pedroelgrande on Oct 31, 2013 23:31:10 GMT -5
Let me post something more serious...Too much silliness coming from me lately.
I think there are two teams to me who stand out that could make a play on Ellsbury. The Texas Rangers and The San Francisco Giants.
I think Texas could use a lead off hitter like Ellsbury to cause havoc on the base paths, I think they lacked that this year. For the Giants I just think they could be interested, don't know if it even makes sense.
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Post by marrcus on Nov 1, 2013 0:04:34 GMT -5
Strictly a highest bidder situation. If you believe Fox, Seattle (pick protected) will be coming after him hard. I hope his sore hand-- that Boras informed everyone yesterday needed an MRI-- is feeling better.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Nov 1, 2013 0:17:00 GMT -5
I guess Seattle too.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Nov 1, 2013 0:29:20 GMT -5
Wouldn't count Detroit out. He would be a perfect fit there.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Nov 1, 2013 4:29:35 GMT -5
The Yanks. He is a premium product and they have tons of moolah and a commitment to winning but it could well be any of 5-6 different teams. I think the yanks probably would prefer Ellsbury as compared to Wells, Ichiro or Gardner. They could find a slot for him somewhere. They may well prefer him over Granderson even. And they could slot Wells at DH.
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Post by amfox1 on Nov 1, 2013 9:21:11 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Nov 1, 2013 9:32:32 GMT -5
I go out on a limb and completely against all logic on this one and say he'll sign a 5-year deal with an option for a 6th with the Red Sox of Boston.
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Post by jmei on Nov 1, 2013 10:22:11 GMT -5
I've increasingly been of the opinion that Ellsbury might return to Boston. There just aren't that many teams who need a CF and have a bunch of cash to spend, and the Red Sox payroll is far, far below its ceiling without many other places to spend it. If the Mariners turn out to be a Boras smokescreen and not actually interested, the Rangers/Reds reach their payroll limit, and the Mets/Cubs decide they're too far away from competing, there's a very good chance that Boras realizes the only competitive offer is in Boston. I would be thrilled to see him back for something like 6 years and $112m, with the understanding that his later years might be rough but that he should be able to outperform the deal enough in the first few years to balance it all out. Bradley is a fine prospect, but his strikeout rate is mildly concerning and he could be a nice sell-high trade piece or the best fourth outfielder in the league.
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Post by MLBDreams on Nov 1, 2013 10:44:09 GMT -5
He won't be returning back to Boston as long as Scott Boras is still representing him as his agent. Jacoby didn't love here & doesn't want to stay around for next 5/7 yrs unlike what Dustin & Mike already told us. The guys loved here. So, let Jacoby go to (possible) Seattle as his sweet home sweet and feel comfortable with West Coast life. He'll follow money to somewhere, not have the heart to stay around here. Two WS titles are enough for him. The Red Sox have enough resource to find the replacement for CF position. Someone else who want to come here since they won 3 WS in last 10 yrs.
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Post by jmei on Nov 1, 2013 10:49:33 GMT -5
I'm pretty confident that the "he hates Boston" stuff is mostly made up. Just because he doesn't show much emotion on the field and prefers to steer clear of the media doesn't mean he hates it here. I feel the same way about the West Coast connection-- I've never seen any non-speculative evidence that he wants to be closer to his family or whatever.
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Post by godot on Nov 1, 2013 10:51:13 GMT -5
Do ya think, just maybe, a home town discount? Clearly he enjoyed this year,and playing in Boston is an experience that may be unparalleled. What's four or five extra million compared to a good time? He seems to have a head on his shoulder and may have some values other than the need for "the biggest salary". Huh, just maybe. It may be the only chance to sign him.
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Post by brianthetaoist on Nov 1, 2013 11:28:37 GMT -5
I don't think Boston is the most likely place he lands, but I do think it's more likely than many others do. The Red Sox have really good infield depth and fantastic pitching depth. But they are nearly barren in the outfield in terms of anyone who is likely to contribute in the next 4-5 years. After JBJ, you have to go to, what, Margot? Or start planning to move infielders into the OF ... so the Sox have lots of money to spend, young and cheap depth in many areas of the team, and a need for a player like Ellsbury. If they're comfortable with him physically and leaving aside theories of emotional connections or lack thereof, why not Boston?
It seems to me that the Sox could spend significant money this offseason extending Lester and resigning Ellsbury and still be fine financially.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Nov 1, 2013 11:37:42 GMT -5
... I would be thrilled to see him back for something like 6 years and $112m, .. can we just offer him Pedroia's deal? More years, less money, but "hey, it's what we're paying Pedroia." I know Pedroia was not a FA, but "hey, it's what we're paying Pedroia." If money is partly money, and partly symbolic of prestige, that's not bad prestige.
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Post by nebraska4sox on Nov 1, 2013 11:55:20 GMT -5
I would love to see him stay here, but it just doesn't seem like its going to happen being as Boras is his agent and a whole lot of other factors apparently.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Nov 1, 2013 12:06:47 GMT -5
The Sox have said several times that they want him back. Of all the options out there he may well be one of their preferred choices. To me though his game has never been optimized in Fenway. It's tough to hit a HR out in RF and there is limited space in left field for his optimal stroke to the opposite field.
In some ways Yankee stadium is a great fit for him. There is a lot of room in left field for his hits to drop in and if they bust him inside a lot he should be able to burn them with more HR pop. Defensively Fenway is a good fit but not offensively. He still can't reach the wall in Fenway with his stroke much at all. The Wall hurts him badly by cutting down the area available for his opposite field singles to drop in.
He is a great small ball player. A team which is more small ball oriented would also be a better fit but how many small ball teams have a lot of money? I see him as more of a National League player also. Maybe a San Francisco?
I could absolutely see him sign with the Sox for the reasons given but I would prefer Choo as a better fit overall for this team and maybe a little less cash. Going forward Choo might be more durable and age better in the next 4-5 years. Possibly he is more amenable to a shorter term deal which appears to be the preferred option for Cherington.
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Post by Guidas on Nov 1, 2013 12:08:54 GMT -5
FWIW: Was it Gerry Callahan from WEEI who said on the day after the World Series he sat with Ellsbury's family during Game 4 who said that they believed "Boston is the best place for him and that he and they really like it here."
Of course, 1) it's Callahan - not that I think he would fabricate something like this that is so verifiable, but he's still sports talk radio.
2) He may love it, his family may love it but for $20M more over the same amount of years, he could learn to love (Insert City Name Here).
The only other caveat I would add is Ellsbury has been on some very successful - and two WS winning - teams here AND he was here last year. I think last year's experience taken with the others will likely have him focusing on teams where he thinks he can win (Boston, Texas, Detroit, ) over teams that may give him and experiences like last year (Seattle, Mets, Cubs, Annual Scott Boras Mystery Team). He will still be in the prime or near prime of his career for the first 3 or so years of his contract. He doesn't seem from a distance like the kind of guy who wants to waste that on a team with "potential" over a team with an opportunity to win now.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Nov 1, 2013 14:00:24 GMT -5
FWIW: Was it Gerry Callahan from WEEI who said on the day after the World Series he sat with Ellsbury's family during Game 4 who said that they believed "Boston is the best place for him and that he and they really like it here." Of course, 1) it's Callahan - not that I think he would fabricate something like this that is so verifiable, but he's still sports talk radio. 2) He may love it, his family may love it but for $20M more over the same amount of years, he could learn to love (Insert City Name Here). The only other caveat I would add is Ellsbury has been on some very successful - and two WS winning - teams here AND he was here last year. I think last year's experience taken with the others will likely have him focusing on teams where he thinks he can win (Boston, Texas, Detroit, ) over teams that may give him and experiences like last year (Seattle, Mets, Cubs, Annual Scott Boras Mystery Team). He will still be in the prime or near prime of his career for the first 3 or so years of his contract. He doesn't seem from a distance like the kind of guy who wants to waste that on a team with "potential" over a team with an opportunity to win now. I agree with you guidas. Ellsbury, to me, looked like he REALLY enjoyed this year. There were other seasons where he seemed to play without a lot of emotion. This year it could actually be seen on his face how much he wanted it. This team was infectious for everyone. As a big fan of Jacoby, it was fun to see him play with abandon this year. I would have said 3 months ago, no way he comes back and make way for JBJ. But now? It may still be alive. It's funny. You can see some players just going through the motions and heading back home to count their money each night. Ellsbury showed a lot of desire and heart this year, and maybe we haven't seen the last (of him).
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 1, 2013 14:13:54 GMT -5
Ellsbury can talk about wanting to stay in Boston all he wants, loving the town, saying he has really enjoyed the place and saying it's the best place for him and his family to be etc..
The only pertinent fact of the matter, is that Ellsbury dumped his original agent Joe Urban during his rookie season and hired Boras for *1* reason, that being for this very day that is here.. Too extract the most money he can get via FA.. This isn't a Varitek who had Boras all along, even before being drafted.. Ells dumped his original agent to get Boras making his goals known to all.
This play is going to be for a money grab, put all words spoken on the trash heap and burn them. If he comes back? It's because Boston gave him the most money and NO other reason.
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 1, 2013 14:18:09 GMT -5
Jacoby is by no means a shoo in to leave, but it's a very real possibility. Possibly even likely. What really needs to happen for Boston to be out of it is for some team to blow the market out of the water. Remember Crawford was ticketed for the Angels before the Red Sox completely blew them out of the water. Why is this important? Because the next highest offer on Crawford was for just over 100M. If Jacoby gets a team to go well over 100M then the Sox are out of it, but the Sox were the only team to do that with Crawford which is why he ended up here. If he's between 95-115M then the Sox are real players. The bad news for Boston, is there always seem to be one dumb GM out there. Sometimes int the past it's even been our own.
The players:
Texas: I think they like Leonys Martin and would want to spend the money elsewhere. Centerfield isn't a huge need position for them.
San Fran: They are going to have to increase payroll again to get Jacoby. Even then that's a lot of money tied up in the outfield between Pagan (10M), Pence (18) and Ellsbury (20+?).... The saved very little money on Tiny Tim's new dumb deal. Pence's money went up a good amount and while Zito's contract comes off the books there is still a 7M buyout so it doesn't save a ton of money this year. Then again what do I know.. perhaps they think he's the missing piece.
Cubs: There's no reason in my mind for the Cubs to go over Jacoby since they seem to be at least 2-3 years way from really competing. Unless they have money to burn on a player who will be overpaid by that point, it'd be a dumb investment. Dumb investments happen and Theo has made them.
Mets: Have a much better reason to do so knowing that 2014 may not be the year, but 2015 could be. Adding a guy like Jacoby would be a calculated risk, but could help the team improve and give real hope for the 2015 season with Harvey coming back and the other young arms the team has. The credibility could help them add the missing pieces in the 2014 offseason.
Phi: Always a candidate to do something dumb and make a big splash. pay roll was down 13M from 2012 last year plus they have Halladay's 20M coming off the books so they could be legit players for him. This roster needs such upgrades all over the place a smart GM would sign a lot of good players rather than 1 flawed "star", but since when is Amaro a smart GM? This is the guy who signed Howard to a Massive no discount contract 2 YEARS before he before he was set to be a free agent. 2 years - NO DISCOUNT - TOP DOLLAR CONTRACT.... never rule anything dumb out with this guy...
LAD: They always need to be mentioned in this stuff as money seems to be no object with the Dodgers, unless it comes to spending to put together a decent bench, then it's time to pinch pennies... Word is they may want a true centerfielder and would be willing to trade Kemp if they could sign Jacoby.... seems like a longshot to me, but again, you never know...
Det: Austin Jackson was bad in the playoffs but he's been a pretty good player for them. people say they have payroll issues, but they really don't when looking at the "cap"... That being said, I don't see them signing a guy like Jacoby when they have Jackson and there's talk they need to trade Scherzer... why not sign Scherzer to the money you'd have to give for Jacoby? He's more valuable.... they have other holes to fill on the team.. I don't see centerfield as one of them.
NYY: Again, need to be mentioned.... payroll wise, I don't see how he fits so well, with all their needs and what they are reportedly trying to do. If they decide not to get under the "cap" then he's in play for them. You'd think Cashman will try to take a page out of BC's book and sign more guys for less money then a big name. Granderson is probably getting a QO as well...
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Post by rjp313jr on Nov 1, 2013 14:20:19 GMT -5
Ellsbury can talk about wanting to stay in Boston all he wants, loving the town, saying he has really enjoyed the place and saying it's the best place for him and his family to be etc.. The only pertinent fact of the matter, is that Ellsbury dumped his original agent Joe Urban during his rookie season and hired Boras for *1* reason, that being for this very day that is here.. Too extract the most money he can get via FA.. This isn't a Varitek who had Boras all along, even before being drafted.. Ells dumped his original agent to get Boras making his goals known to all. This play is going to be for a money grab, put all words spoken on the trash heap and burn them. If he comes back? It's because Boston gave him the most money and NO other reason. or very comparable money.... lets just say Boston gave him 6/112 and Seattle offered 6/120... I don't know that he leaves Boston for 8M over 6 years to go to Seattle... but it wouldn't shock me if he did... Boston isn't getting a discount though... I don't consider the above scenario a discount... it'd be Jacoby putting some value on being a competitive team... maybe he's got his rings though and he doesn't' care about that.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Nov 1, 2013 14:29:45 GMT -5
Giants would have been better off with Ells than Pence. Ells could have been a terrific player for at least 3-4 years in that park and Pence really would have been able to put up some terrific power numbers at a place like Camden Yards, Yankee stadium, Arlington.
Have mentioned before that think NYY are a darkhorse for Ells if someone comes out of the blue on Cano and his price goes wild. Ells power would magically return there and his speed is far better than Cano, he would actually put up better overall numbers than Cano for a few years is my thinking and cheaper than resigning Cano to boot.
Nice post Rip313.
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Post by jmei on Nov 1, 2013 14:31:43 GMT -5
Eh, players sign with Scott Boras because he's a damned fine agent who is going to get them a lot of money. It doesn't necessarily imply that they only want to maximize their future earnings-- he has clients who sign hometown extensions (Jared Weaver, Carloz Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez, Elvis Andrus) and who eschew the biggest deal on the table (Stephen Drew, Jason Varitek).
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Post by brianthetaoist on Nov 1, 2013 14:48:36 GMT -5
Eh, players sign with Scott Boras because he's a damned fine agent who is going to get them a lot of money. It doesn't necessarily imply that they only want to maximize their future earnings-- he has clients who sign hometown extensions (Jared Weaver, Carloz Gomez, Carlos Gonzalez, Elvis Andrus) and who eschew the biggest deal on the table (Stephen Drew, Jason Varitek). Quoted for truth ... look, I have no problem with players signing big contracts, never have. More power to 'em. But Scott Boras is an excellent agent because he gets the players what they want. Jason Varitek wanted to sign a good contract to stay in Boston, and that's what Boras got him. Stephen Drew and Adrian Beltre wanted a short contract to use as a springboard for a better one, so that's what he did for them by getting them exposure playing for the Red Sox. Other players wanted the biggest money, and he got that for them. He also gets them the best medical advice, runs training programs ... sure, he's missed here and there, and sometimes he ends up looking foolish, but he's really great at what he does all around. In the end, we don't really know what Ellsbury wants because he's pretty private about his thoughts. So I guess we'll see.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Nov 1, 2013 16:18:09 GMT -5
I'm with Guidas in thinking that non-contenders have no chance of signing him. The excitement of playing on the best team in baseball, in front of the most passionate fans: once you've actually experienced that, you would want a comparable situation.
Combining various sources of speculation, contenders who might be interested are the Yankees, Cardinals, Dodgers, Nationals, and Rangers.
I don't see the Dodgers (listed by Heyman) moving both Kemp and Ethier. The Yankees have two pretty good outfielders on their roster in Gardner and Soriano, neither of whom has ever played an inning in RF, but who are both free agents after 2014. Would the Yankees sign Ellsbury to play RF for a year? It seems like a long shot, and it's also hard to see Ellsbury going to the Yankees with all their sideshows, even though the park would be a good fit. In fact, it's hard to see them as a real contender for the next few years.
The Rangers have two terrific defenders in the platoon of Leonys Martin and Craig Gentry, both of whom can hit a little. Martin's been a top 100 prospect and it would be surprising if he wasn't given another year to improve at the plate after a decent rookie season.
The Nationals would have to trade Denard Span, who was 10th in fWAR among CF (400 PA). His contract is very affordable, so that would be doable, but it seems like a bit of a longshot.
The Cardinals are an obvious terrific fit (as they are for Drew). They've got Oscar Taveras replacing Beltran, so the latter's money would be available, and an excess of young starting pitching that they can trade to fill any other holes. And they're almost certainly the club that comes closest to matching us in projected competitiveness and fan passion.
I could see this coming down to us vs. the Cardinals, and they don't seem like the sort of team that would grossly overpay.
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