SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Jacoby Ellsbury nearing 7 yr/$153mm deal w/MFY
|
Post by jmei on Nov 14, 2013 13:41:00 GMT -5
Heyman reported it a bit back: However, note that that contract offer was two years ago and coming off an MVP-caliber season. There are no reports that Ellsbury has turned down a $100m+ offer so far this offseason.
|
|
|
Post by FenwayFanatic on Nov 14, 2013 14:33:21 GMT -5
Heyman reported it a bit back: However, note that that contract offer was two years ago and coming off an MVP-caliber season. There are no reports that Ellsbury has turned down a $100m+ offer so far this offseason. This is what I was referring to, thank you jmei. The article I read was from a different source I think the Red Sox went up to as high as 110M final offer. I could be wrong though. I can try and find the source after work if you'd like. Please feel free to delete this message if you want, I'm just trying to speculate and add to the discussion with what I've heard, I find it interesting.
|
|
|
Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Nov 17, 2013 12:50:28 GMT -5
I, like most people, would like to have Jacoby - but not at the likely offers he is going to get from another team. He is a fine ball player, but I don't believe that his skill set is one the Sox should go above 5yrs / $100m to retain. One, I don't think he is likely to live up to a contract beyond that with multiple years of the contract being past his prime, and two, we have a player waiting in the wings that is a decent bet to produce a comparable value over the duration of any realistic deal, though not as good of an offensive force.
Using his FanGraphs values, while not perfect, he has been worth approximately $109m over the past seven seasons, with nearly $42m of that coming in 2011, which I think we would all agree is an outlier. In fairness, removing his negative value "Beltre-ed" season, he was worth about $15m per season (ie, taking out two outliers on the high and low that have a low likelihood of being repeated) as well. Adding in a free agent premium and a keeping the length "short" is how I arrive at the 5yr / $100m absolute limit, and I do think he will get more.
With Bradley being a good bet to have a better obp, less power, fewer steals and better defense, I feel once that 5yr and $20m threshold has been crossed, it's better to allow Ellsbury to walk and allocate the money elsewhere. My guess is that the Sox make a very fair and competitive offer, and that is trumped by the Mets who end up going to at least 6yrs / $120m and win the bidding.
|
|
|
Post by mattpicard on Nov 17, 2013 13:00:23 GMT -5
I, like most people, would like to have Jacoby - but not at the likely offers he is going to get from another team. He is a fine ball player, but I don't believe that his skill set is one the Sox should go above 5yrs / $100m to retain. One, I don't think he is likely to live up to a contract beyond that with multiple years of the contract being past his prime, and two, we have a player waiting in the wings that is a decent bet to produce a comparable value over the duration of any realistic deal, though not as good of an offensive force. Using his FanGraphs values, while not perfect, he has been worth approximately $109m over the past seven seasons, with nearly $42m of that coming in 2011, which I think we would all agree is an outlier. In fairness, removing his negative value "Beltre-ed" season, he was worth about $15m per season (ie, taking out two outliers on the high and low that have a low likelihood of being repeated) as well. Adding in a free agent premium and a keeping the length "short" is how I arrive at the 5yr / $100m absolute limit, and I do think he will get more. With Bradley being a good bet to have a better obp, less power, fewer steals and better defense, I feel once that 5yr and $20m threshold has been crossed, it's better to allow Ellsbury to walk and allocate the money elsewhere. My guess is that the Sox make a very fair and competitive offer, and that is trumped by the Mets who end up going to at least 6yrs / $120m and win the bidding. I agree. I'm also not buying the Mariners reported lack of interest. I mean, going after Nelson Cruz instead would be an M's thing to do, I suppose, but it'd be incredibly stupid. They have money, and Ellsbury is the type of offensive and defensive force they can really build around One thought on saying Bradley is likely to have the better OBP: I think that could very well hold true down the road, but at the moment, we're comparing a guy I'd expect to hit ~.260 in his first full-time season to a seasoned .290-.300 guy (when healthy) in Ellsbury. Even with Bradley's propensity to take walks and work himself on base, expecting him to reach at .340 clip would be a very pleasant surprise.
|
|
|
Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Nov 17, 2013 13:16:08 GMT -5
Good point, Matt. For the record, I meant that (higher obp, etc) over the course of the next 5 to 6 seasons, not that Bradley Jr will exceed a .355obp (Ellsbury's 2013 mark) next season. That is why I think Bradley Jr would be the 9 hole hitter next season, but eventually can work his way into the top two spots of the order. Likely about the time Victorino is moving on around 2016, allowing Bradley to slowly acclimate and grow into his role.
|
|
|
Post by mattpicard on Nov 17, 2013 13:39:26 GMT -5
Good point, Matt. For the record, I meant that (higher obp, etc) over the course of the next 5 to 6 seasons, not that Bradley Jr will exceed a .355obp (Ellsbury's 2013 mark) next season. That is why I think Bradley Jr would be the 9 hole hitter next season, but eventually can work his way into the top two spots of the order. Likely about the time Victorino is moving on around 2016, allowing Bradley to slowly acclimate and grow into his role. I hear you. For the record, I think Bradley Jr. will be a better leadoff option than Victorino come 2015, and ideally even at some point next season. I'm a little uneasy about putting stock into Victorino's 2013 OBP performance when you consider it drops from .351 to .327 when you remove the HBP's. Considering his switch-hitting situation and the scarce amount of time he's had hitting righty on righty, there's a fair amount of uncertainty surrounding how he'd produce in the leadoff spot going forward. He's still going to get hit by a lot of pitches if he's batting right-handed full-time, but you don't get your confidence in a leadoff guys on-base skills from HBP's the way you do from battling deep into counts and drawing walks, two things Shane doesn't exactly excel at. I think you can reasonably expect at least a .330 OBP from from him next year (steamer thinks .338), but a repeat of this years .351 is pretty unlikely.
|
|
|
Post by bigpapismangosalsa on Nov 17, 2013 14:08:22 GMT -5
Though I don't want to go too far off topic, I actually think Victorino will only be leading off against LHP, with Nava leading off against RHP until Bradley is ready for the role, likely in more of a full time capacity. I would think Victorino's obp will be close to his career numbers in Philadelphia, potentially with a slight regression to about a .340obp over the next two years. In his career against RHP, Nava has accumulated a .292/.390/.443/.883 quad slash line, which is right in line with what Damon put up against RHP in his time here in Boston. Until Bradley is ready, he leads off against RHP with Victorino and his career .303/.373/.506/.879 against LHP.
Quick point, Damon was the single best lead off hitter I've ever seen as a Red Sox player. I don't think Nava is the same player at all, just saying I think that offensively he can similarly valuable when used properly against RHP, and in my mind he is leading off against RHP, setting the table for Pedroia and Papi, with Victorino in the two hole in normal circumstances.
|
|
|
Post by mattpicard on Nov 17, 2013 14:32:17 GMT -5
Nava is clearly the best high-OBP option to leadoff. However, it's notable that in his career, the first two spots in the lineup have been his worst by far (.711 OPS w/ 170 PAs; .720 OPS w/ 218 PAs). It's a SSS, and his OBP skills would still be very much present, but he's been an absolute force in the five and six spots. Interchanging leadoff hitters is certainly do-able, but it's one of those spots where you'd ideally like some consistency. Ron Washington said today the Rangers are having internal discussions on Ellsbury. With Leonys Martin (and Craig Gentry backing him up) in center, you'd really think McCann and Beltran would be more fitting targets. Of course, internal discussions are often just teams doing their due diligence, so probably not anything to read into right now.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 17, 2013 14:45:03 GMT -5
I, like most people, would like to have Jacoby - but not at the likely offers he is going to get from another team. He is a fine ball player, but I don't believe that his skill set is one the Sox should go above 5yrs / $100m to retain. One, I don't think he is likely to live up to a contract beyond that with multiple years of the contract being past his prime, and two, we have a player waiting in the wings that is a decent bet to produce a comparable value over the duration of any realistic deal, though not as good of an offensive force. Using his FanGraphs values, while not perfect, he has been worth approximately $109m over the past seven seasons, with nearly $42m of that coming in 2011, which I think we would all agree is an outlier. In fairness, removing his negative value "Beltre-ed" season, he was worth about $15m per season (ie, taking out two outliers on the high and low that have a low likelihood of being repeated) as well. Adding in a free agent premium and a keeping the length "short" is how I arrive at the 5yr / $100m absolute limit, and I do think he will get more. With Bradley being a good bet to have a better obp, less power, fewer steals and better defense, I feel once that 5yr and $20m threshold has been crossed, it's better to allow Ellsbury to walk and allocate the money elsewhere. My guess is that the Sox make a very fair and competitive offer, and that is trumped by the Mets who end up going to at least 6yrs / $120m and win the bidding. I agree. I'm also not buying the Mariners reported lack of interest. I mean, going after Nelson Cruz instead would be an M's thing to do, I suppose, but it'd be incredibly stupid. They have money, and Ellsbury is the type of offensive and defensive force they can really build around One thought on saying Bradley is likely to have the better OBP: I think that could very well hold true down the road, but at the moment, we're comparing a guy I'd expect to hit ~.260 in his first full-time season to a seasoned .290-.300 guy (when healthy) in Ellsbury. Even with Bradley's propensity to take walks and work himself on base, expecting him to reach at .340 clip would be a very pleasant surprise. One thing to keep in mind is that Bradley has never had an isolated discipline of less than 90 points, and that includes his time in the majors last year. If you think he's going to hit ~.260 than it would be an outlier for him not to have on OBP at least 80 points higher. That just may be who he is. It wouldn't be a big surprise to me if that line was more like .270/.350, and with decent power.
|
|
|
Post by taftreign on Nov 17, 2013 15:19:07 GMT -5
While not quantifiable I believe the fact that Bradley Jr will know if he will be the starting center fielder entering the season will have him more mentally prepared for success. I believe first and foremost the players skill set provides the best predictive nature but the mental preparation is the difference in achieving or not achieving the higher range of success. Another off season of tutelage under Victorino and Pedroia also should provide a positive influence.
|
|
|
Post by mattpicard on Nov 17, 2013 15:42:12 GMT -5
I agree. I'm also not buying the Mariners reported lack of interest. I mean, going after Nelson Cruz instead would be an M's thing to do, I suppose, but it'd be incredibly stupid. They have money, and Ellsbury is the type of offensive and defensive force they can really build around One thought on saying Bradley is likely to have the better OBP: I think that could very well hold true down the road, but at the moment, we're comparing a guy I'd expect to hit ~.260 in his first full-time season to a seasoned .290-.300 guy (when healthy) in Ellsbury. Even with Bradley's propensity to take walks and work himself on base, expecting him to reach at .340 clip would be a very pleasant surprise. One thing to keep in mind is that Bradley has never had an isolated discipline of less than 90 points, and that includes his time in the majors last year. If you think he's going to hit ~.260 than it would be an outlier for him not to have on OBP at least 80 points higher. That just may be who he is. It wouldn't be a big surprise to me if that line was more like .270/.350, and with decent power. Good point, Norm. I know it's isolated, but you have to figure that may change, at least initially, with his leap to a full-time role in the majors, right? I don't think his 107 MLB PAs so far are enough to expect the trend to continue into 2014, but I certainly hope it does! He's going to be seeing a ton of quality breaking and offspeed pitches that present a radical change in the level of effectiveness, and patterns, of those pitches he saw in the minors. Some of those may/will fool him, possibly causing him to relinquish at least some of that restraint and thus adversely affecting his OBP. Hopefully he acclimates accordingly in the first half of the season, but hey, if you think he's going to throw up a .330 OBP next year if he's struggling and hitting .240, then people need to relax a bit with the quest to look outside the organization for center field help. A .330+ OBP from your #9 hitter is not a problem at all, especially when it has the potential to climb substantially going forward.
|
|
|
Post by sdiaz1 on Nov 17, 2013 16:39:02 GMT -5
Yeah Texas does not make a whole ton of sense as a potential landing place for Ells. They have a cheap incumbent who easily profiles as a league average hitter and plus defender and plus base runner signed for two more years. Granted he is a disaster against lefties (52 WRC+ in 150 PA's) but that is hardly a reason to invest so much into a replacement when the team could use more help at first base, catcher, DH, or rightfield.
|
|
|
Post by soxcentral on Nov 17, 2013 22:15:01 GMT -5
Yeah Texas does not make a whole ton of sense as a potential landing place for Ells. They have a cheap incumbent who easily profiles as a league average hitter and plus defender and plus base runner signed for two more years. Granted he is a disaster against lefties (52 WRC+ in 150 PA's) but that is hardly a reason to invest so much into a replacement when the team could use more help at first base, catcher, DH, or rightfield. Other than needs at DH and right field you pretty much just described why we shouldn't sign Ellsbury too.
|
|
|
Post by anthonyws2013 on Nov 17, 2013 22:55:40 GMT -5
I see Jacoby Ellsbury going to Seattle even though all the rumors are going against that notion to potentially play a bargaining chip in negotiations. The Mariners desperately need to make a move for some offense and have the money to go out and spend. They were 27 in the league in batting average at .237, 26th in OBP at .306, 26th in hits, 28th in stolen bases (Ellsbury had three more then their entire team and would have put them in 13th). Obviously his bad at the top of that lineup would do wonders. Seattle isnt that far off from contention and adding Ellsbury and 2 mid tier offensive free agents they would be right up their in the AL West. I see him getting a 7 year 140 million dollar deal to head back west.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Nov 17, 2013 23:04:48 GMT -5
...Good point, Norm. I know it's isolated, but you have to figure that may change, at least initially, with his leap to a full-time role in the majors, right? I don't think his 107 MLB PAs so far are enough to expect the trend to continue into 2014, but I certainly hope it does! He's going to be seeing a ton of quality breaking and offspeed pitches that present a radical change in the level of effectiveness, and patterns, of those pitches he saw in the minors. Some of those may/will fool him, possibly causing him to relinquish at least some of that restraint and thus adversely affecting his OBP. Hopefully he acclimates accordingly in the first half of the season, but hey, if you think he's going to throw up a .330 OBP next year if he's struggling and hitting .240, then people need to relax a bit with the quest to look outside the organization for center field help. A .330+ OBP from your #9 hitter is not a problem at all, especially when it has the potential to climb substantially going forward. He's an interesting kid. More than once, during his call-ups to the majors last year, he got down 0-2 in the count. In that situation, any pitcher worth the name did just about what they always try to do to a rookie. They'd tempt him inside or outside, sometimes way off the plate, gradually moving the ball back towards the zone. And more than once he drew a walk after refusing to go after the crap, and fouling pitches off. He has a very well-developed feel for the strike zone. As you say, that will be seriously tested. On the positive side, he'll also have a chance to learn the pitchers and their patterns if he does get more at bats. He's a student of the game from all we've read and heard. I do hope they give him a chance if Ellsbury leaves. Add: Dave Cameron has an article on ESPN Insider about Ellsbury. I don't subscribe, but the leed is about how Jacoby might be a bargain. Given that he's a dyed-in-the-wool Mariners fan, I'm wondering if this isn't meant for their eyes. Then again, he also wrote up what a good deal Ryan Howard's contract might end up being, one of the few who tap-danced on that grave.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,882
Member is Online
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 18, 2013 12:48:37 GMT -5
Yeah Texas does not make a whole ton of sense as a potential landing place for Ells. They have a cheap incumbent who easily profiles as a league average hitter and plus defender and plus base runner signed for two more years. Granted he is a disaster against lefties (52 WRC+ in 150 PA's) but that is hardly a reason to invest so much into a replacement when the team could use more help at first base, catcher, DH, or rightfield. You have to remember that teams will often kick the tires on a player who is actually a Plan B in their budget. If they end up filling most of their actual holes cheaply (because they get outbid on more expensive options), then it might make more sense to go after Ellsbury as a CF then to leave budgeted money unspent. That would explain the reported interest, which, I agree, is otherwise a bit of a surprise. While I'm posting, this thought: compared to everyone else, we have a much better understanding of the factors that have been responsible for Ellsbury's highly variable HR power. We can build an actual narrative around his medical reports and his history of changed approaches due to coaching, while everyone else is just guessing. If in fact we've concluded he has a fairly high probability of re-developing 20-25 HR power, we'd be a lot more confident of that than anyone else, and that would certainly improve his odds of coming back here.
|
|
|
Post by dmaineah on Nov 18, 2013 13:01:25 GMT -5
I think the Red Sox will (and should offer) Ellsbury a 6yr $102 million deal with 2 team options bringing the total to $136 million with reachable yearly incentives that could push it over $144 million for 8 years if options are picked up & incentives reached.
I also think that some team will beat that offer. Which sucks because I'd really like for him to return. I think he is more important to this line up then most people think and will be extremely hard to replace.
|
|
|
Post by honkbal on Nov 18, 2013 22:06:01 GMT -5
Add: Dave Cameron has an article on ESPN Insider about Ellsbury. I don't subscribe, but the leed is about how Jacoby might be a bargain. Given that he's a dyed-in-the-wool Mariners fan, I'm wondering if this isn't meant for their eyes. Then again, he also wrote up what a good deal Ryan Howard's contract might end up being, one of the few who tap-danced on that grave. Jacoby's no Jeremy Reed, though.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,882
Member is Online
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 19, 2013 21:41:28 GMT -5
Jon Heyman says that the Rangers are much more interested in Choo than Ellsbury, because they like Leonys Martin. This actually makes sense. Elsewhere, the Yankees are reported to be more interested in Beltran and Choo than Ellsbury, and the Mariners' interest is "overblown." No other teams have been linked to him at MLBTradeRumors, although at ESPN Insider, Jim Bowden says the Cubs ought to sign him, for whatever that's worth.
|
|
|
Post by thelavarnwayguy on Nov 19, 2013 22:17:25 GMT -5
I projected the Yanks as the most likely spot for Ellsbury but I would think that Seattle should consider more of a small ball approach, and there are few better small ball players than Ellsbury.
They keep looking for power. They should probably keep spending their money on pitching, defense and small ball players like Ellsbury who can help them win close games. 1-2 real solid power guys ...fine..but focus more on small ball in that park and with the existing pitching staff nucleus they have in place.
I think there is a chance that Ellsbury falls to Seattle after the dust settles.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Nov 20, 2013 12:55:10 GMT -5
Buster Olney on WEEI today saying chances Ellsbury is back with the Sox may be ticking up a bit. Said Seattle & Texas going for power and aren't pursuing Ells, at least for now. Det, NYY and the ever-popular Scott Boras Mystery team remain possibilities but "if it's down to those teams and the offers are similar to what the Red Sox put on the table you'd think Ellsbury would go back to Boston."
Of course, this is Olney, it's early and teams often send mixed signals, especially this early in the off-season. But hey, what else have we got right now?...
|
|
|
Post by jdb on Nov 20, 2013 18:03:31 GMT -5
I hope that's the case but I just see him getting close to Crawford money. He's the best leadoff hitter in the game and plays a premium position at GG level.
|
|
danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
|
Post by danr on Nov 20, 2013 18:15:28 GMT -5
Does anyone think that a team's chances for the post-season will play any significant role in Ellsbury's decision? Most of the teams being mentioned as possible destinations have little chance of making the post-season anytime soon, with, or without him. Boston almost certainly will contend, and Texas could, but I don't see Seattle, the Mets, or even the Yankees being real contenders in the next couple of years at least.
|
|
|
Post by rjp313jr on Nov 20, 2013 18:18:25 GMT -5
Only if money is real close. Say within 10m and even then a player can feel disrespected real easy. Money = respect to these guys.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,882
Member is Online
|
Post by ericmvan on Nov 20, 2013 20:41:19 GMT -5
Does anyone think that a team's chances for the post-season will play any significant role in Ellsbury's decision? Most of the teams being mentioned as possible destinations have little chance of making the post-season anytime soon, with, or without him. Boston almost certainly will contend, and Texas could, but I don't see Seattle, the Mets, or even the Yankees being real contenders in the next couple of years at least. There's a great, detailed discussion on this very point online already somewhere. You may have to hunt around to find out, but if my memory is correct, it's at the user forums in a place called "SoxProspects.com." I think the thread was called something like "Where will Jacoby Ellsbury sign?"
|
|
|