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A Logical Look at Giancarlo Stanton
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 20, 2014 11:49:11 GMT -5
And they wouldn't acquire without either an extension in place or an understanding that he will sign one , a la the Adrian Gonzalez trade. So, he won't sign with MIA but he'll sign with us before free agency, in your view presumably because MIA is cheap and BOS is not. Good luck with that fishtale, Captain Ahab.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 20, 2014 14:07:18 GMT -5
You may have missed my last post, (or ignored it because it destroyed your argument ) but in it I provided ample evidence that Stanton has been reluctant to talk extension with Miami in the past, and people within the organization believe they will have trouble doing so in the future as well. The reason, of course, is that Miami is not only cheap but have not been committed to winning, or proven they can win on a consistent basis, pretty much ever. I presume you are a Red Sox fan, yes? Then you may have noticed that over the last decade or so they are arguably the most successful franchise in baseball, committed to contending year in and year out. The thought that Giancarlo Stanton, who badly wants to win according to his friends, would not sign a massive, market rate extension with the Boston Red Sox is, in your words, madness. Did he become a Scott Boras client when I wasn't paying attention? I didn't think so . But you're right, there is no precedent for a team acquiring a superstar player (Gonzalez) through trade (Miggy) and then giving him a big money extension to lock him up. Heck, every star player goes to free agency nowadays, right? edit: I've done the courtesy of providing you with some more hard evidence, from Stanton himself, that is he definitely willing to forgo free agency in exchange for the security of a long-term deal, if it's with a team that is committed to winning (a huge question mark with Miami, and a given with the Boston Red Sox) www.mlb.com/news/article/mia/miami-marlins-team-stability-a-priority-for-giancarlo-stanton-before-talking-contract-extension?ymd=20140210&content_id=67630248&vkey=news_mia Feel free to provide some more irrelevant literary quotes though, it's workin' real well for ya.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 20, 2014 14:11:47 GMT -5
And BTW, the real point I was making in the post you quoted is that there is no reason to fear the Red Sox giving up a bounty of prospects only to lose Stanton in two years, as DC mentioned. Maybe he wouldn't agree to an extension, it's possible (though highly unlikely), in which case we would not be willing to mortgage the future for him. Really pretty simple when you look at it objectively and just use basic logic .
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Post by amfox1 on Aug 20, 2014 15:28:23 GMT -5
O, Captain - Since you apparently do not believe people are understanding your white whale hopes and dreams correctly, let's take another look into the blissful fantasy world of our very own Captain, in your own words. Then: Right, a year from now. That makes a HUGE difference both in terms of what we'd be willing to offer and what the Marlins would accept. I think it's silly when people say the Marlins will "never" trade him, but to get him right now would take a king's ransom. I think next July is the absolute earliest they would even consider it seriously. Now: 1. Stanton doesn't want to stay in MIA as the alpha male of Miami sports because everyone knows that MIA is not committed to winning, even though MIA is set up very well to be a playoff team over the next few years and can afford to keep Stanton. MIA will therefore look to trade Stanton this offseason. does Stanton want to spend the bulk of his career playing for Jeff Loria? That is the question I was addressing. We both know there's a good chance he doesn't, and would not be amenable to an extension. These same reports you seem to put so much stock also say that the Marlins are not convinced he will sign (if you believe one part you must believe the other ) And if the Marlins make him a substantial offer, and he turns it down, that means he's gone in two years and the likelihood of him being traded goes up by a lot. Of course, everyone knows that players make their team decisions based on the identity of the owner, because no one ever sells a team and players spend lots of time with the owner! Money, money, money, money! 2. BOS will have the best trade package (as if that were ever in doubt!) and MIA (two years before Stanton's contract expires) will allow BOS to negotiate an extension with Stanton as a condition of any trade. You guys are way overthinking this. Stanton would welcome a trade here and he would sign an extension in a heartbeat (and if for some odd reason he wouldn't, they wouldn't trade for him). 3 Notwithstanding all this leverage Stanton has, he will seek a discounted contract (8/200mm) from BOS because he wants to get out MIA so badly because, as you stated, Stanton badly wants to win (leaving aside, for the moment, that MIA is better positioned for future playoff runs than BOS). But there's no way he's getting that two years away from FA. For one thing, if you're giving him a 10 year deal, you're expecting some kind of a discount on the AAV in exchange for the security he's getting. And there's a chance he wouldn't even want a 10 year deal anyway as it limits his chances of getting another huge contract either in FA or a pre-FA extension when he's 31/32. And remember, he's not a Boras guy. I think something like 8/200 would get it done. He's not going to turn down 200+ million when he's that far from free agency. 4. Of course, you later acknowledge that the Red Sox will have no leverage in this situation and will have to pay Stanton what he wants. So, it will be more like 10/280-300, since Stanton will want the largest contract in the history of baseball, plus BOS will have to trade MIA a bunch of players and top prospects. And if we worked out a deal with MIA, we're not going to lose Stanton over money. I think 200 would get it done but if not, they'll do what it takes. He's a 24/5 year old superstar, he is the kind of guy they will break the bank for. *** Really pretty simple when you look at it objectively and just use basic logic . Couldn't have said it better. Enjoy the fantasy, Captain.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 20, 2014 16:06:55 GMT -5
The title of this thread is an oxymoron.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 20, 2014 16:20:49 GMT -5
1. Stanton doesn't want to stay in MIA as the alpha male of Miami sports because everyone knows that MIA is not committed to winning, even though MIA is set up very well to be a playoff team over the next few years and can afford to keep Stanton. MIA will therefore look to trade Stanton this offseason. Hmm, I wonder why you decided to forgo actual quotations for this one and instead went with the paraphrase technique. Wouldn't be because this is a distortion of what I actually said, now would it? Let's stick with facts: Stanton has declined talking extension with MIA in the past, specifically because of their history as an organization. The Marlins themselves are not overly optimistic that they will be able to sign him, not for financial reasons, but because of what I just said. If you need citations on this you can go back to my previous posts and refresh yourself (take your time, please). I'd love to hear you address these facts just once, instead of going off on tangents and twisting my words. Feel free to explain to me why Stanton has rejected extension talks in the past (reported fact), has said himself that he needs to see proof the organization is committed to winning consistently before even talking about a deal (fact, as told to a reporter by Stanton himself). We really shouldn't continue until you address this, but I'm not hopeful on that count, so let's go on anyway. Let's say Stanton signs a huge extension with MIA, and then somehow they don't turn into this perennial juggernaut that you predict they will be (hard to imagine, I know, but go with me ), and a couple years down the road they have a season where they struggle and the future doesn't look so bright (like say, 2012). Now they have Stanton on the books for eternity at huge money. It's very likely they would trade him to get out from under his salary and rebuild, as they've done in the past, and he ends up somewhere he doesn't want to be (even a place where he isn't the alpha male of the local sports market, god forbid ). I can't imagine why Stanton would be reluctant to sign a long-term with an organization (i.e. owner) where this is a very real possibility. Nope, it's a total mystery. Maybe he just hates beaches and warm weather? Ah, another convenient paraphrase/distortion. Funny how people with no real argument resort to that! 1. Just about any team would love to have Stanton. Not every team has both the assets to acquire him and the financial wherewithal to extend him. The Red Sox are one of those teams. Never said they were the only one or that it's a fait accompli he would end up here. But, since this is a Red Sox-centric board (I think? You're a mod, you can clarify ) and I am a Red Sox fan, I am more prone to focus on our chances of acquiring rather than, say, the Dodgers or the Cubs, who also are very obvious fits. But I guess you prefer to go with the iron clad logic of "He's an LA guy, so he'll probably end up in LA", cause we know players ALWAYS end up with their hometown team . 2. The scenario I am referring to is one in which the Marlins make their best offer, Stanton rejects it, and they decide to put him on the market. And, if they're resigned to trading him, and they want the best possible package of talent in return, I'd love to hear why they would not provide such a window to a potential trade suitor, be it the Red Sox or otherwise? What possible reason would they have to care about a player who has shown he will not sign with them signing long-term elsewhere? I can't think of one, but I'd be curious to hear the nonsense perspective that you seem to be repping in this thread. Of course, players two years away from free agency never take less money in exchange for the security of a long term deal, that's totally unprecedented! Pardon me for asking, but you do inhabit the same reality as the rest of us, correct? As for the respective talent level of the two teams, and their futures, it's irrelevant, as Stanton's stated reason for being wary of Miami as an organization is not that they do not have good players or aren't good at finding young talent, but rather they have no history of holding onto that talent and trying to win year in year out. If you want to have a discussion about the Marlins vs Red Sox going forward, feel free to start another thread, but try not to take this one off track like the 2015 Red Sox Roster discussion thread. You corrected your mistake there but let's try to preempt any more. As for the stuff about what it would take to sign him, we can quibble about specific numbers if you want. I fail to see how me saying the Red Sox will "break the bank" if necessary in anyway undermines any of the points I'm making. Do you disagree that they have or would be willing to pony up the dough it would take to extend Stanton? No? Then you should probably focus on addressing the other points that you've ignored for about five straight posts now, Ishmael.
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Post by ray88h66 on Aug 20, 2014 16:33:12 GMT -5
The title of this thread is an oxymoron. For sure. Maybe another mod can convince amfox and hammer to go to throw down. I'm all for getting Stanton. No idea what it would take.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 20, 2014 16:35:53 GMT -5
BTW, that quote that you so courteously took out of context, the one about it taking a king's ransom to get him now and it's more likely they trade him after 2015, that was in response to Eric Van stating that a deal consisting of:(newly acquired) Piscotty, Webster, Marrero and Coyle would be enough to acquire Stanton this offseason. I guess you disagree with me that that package is a bit light?
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 20, 2014 16:39:18 GMT -5
Throwdown? I'm no moderator but I was under the impression that forum was intended for off-topic or inappropriate discussions? I don't think this falls under either category. Now, if you tell me there's another forum intended for completely lopsided debates...
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Post by dcsoxfan on Aug 20, 2014 16:40:59 GMT -5
Barring Miami selling very low on Stanton, I really hope the Red Sox don't try to acquire him.
1. Miami has absolutely no reason to grant the Red Sox a negotiating window and lots of reason not to (imagine how badly the Marlins' position would deteriorate if negotiations with the Red Sox were unsuccessful). Any trade is for two years of Stanton -- and I don't see any evidence the Red Sox will compete in 2015 or 16 even with Stanton.
2. Stanton is a HoF talent entering free agency PRIOR to turning 27. He will cost -- at a minimum -- three of Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, Owens. On top of that you will have to pay him $300 million to keep him. That's 1/6 of the Red Sox payroll for a decade. I just don't see how they can simultaneously trade the bulk of their top-end cost controlled talent, commit a sixth of their payroll to one player and fill out the remainder of a competitive team.
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Post by ray88h66 on Aug 20, 2014 16:45:05 GMT -5
Throwdown? I'm no moderator but I was under the impression that forum was intended for off-topic or inappropriate discussions? I don't think this falls under either category. Now, if you tell me there's another forum intended for completely lopsided debates...[/b] LOL. I do think you are winning ,but both of you have made your positions clear. I'll just skip you guys, carry on.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 20, 2014 17:39:25 GMT -5
I'm not sure how you can, on the one hand, say that we are definitively acquiring only two years of Stanton, and then say that it will take 3 top 10 caliber prospects (with Bogaerts as a "prospect" for the sake of discussion). That is not close to equal value for 10-12 WAR (granted at much less than market value, but not cheap) which is what you'd expect to get from Stanton's next two years.
Stanton is great, but he's no better than Miggy who only fetched two top 10 prospects, and no one the caliber of Xander.
And again, for the third time, the negotiating window is contigent on the idea that the Marlins become resigned to trading him. I don't see them fielding offers unless that is the direction they decide to go in.
If they dangle Stanton and don't end up trading him, there is zero chance he would resign with them after that.Thus, there is literally no reason, if they make it known that he is available, that they would not allow the suitor to negotiate with him. It's ludicrous to suggest otherwise.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 20, 2014 18:04:39 GMT -5
BTW, we know for a fact that Jennings told Luhnow they would consider it for a package of Springer and Corea, and that was a year ago. Two excellent prospects, yes, but this idea that it would take Bogaerts plus half of our farm system is just unfounded.
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Post by jimed14 on Aug 20, 2014 19:31:08 GMT -5
It's possible that
1) Miami doesn't want to trade him 2) that Stanton doesn't want to sign an extension anywhere before free agency. 3) Miami would only trade him for a complete ransom
I don't see the point in talking about it anymore. Until Miami says he's on the market and Stanton says he's open to signing an extension with a team that trades for him, I don't think the Sox would be serious at all.
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Post by jmei on Aug 20, 2014 19:40:20 GMT -5
The petty, personal sniping absolutely needs to stop. There has been too much unnecessary antagonism from both sides. Cut it out.
PS: stuff like this is exactly what Throwdown is for-- when you find you can't make your point without being a total ***hole. If you want to continue it, continue it there (I would move posts but am on vacation and only have my phone).
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 20, 2014 20:07:08 GMT -5
Totally agree. Let's knock off the nonsense, fellas!
Maybe the Marlins can change Stanton's mind and convince him to re-sign, as hard and unlikely as we've established it will be, but for now maybe we should move on to speculate about other very realistic scenarios for the Red Sox to acquire premium talent.
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Post by chavopepe2 on Aug 20, 2014 20:11:28 GMT -5
I agree with jimed's point above: There is no indication that the Marlins will even consider trading Stanton this offseason. Regardless of what is fair, if the Marlins aren't committed to moving him he won't be traded. If they put him on the market we'll know with plenty of time to explore trade possibilities. In the meantime, its a little to pie-in-the-sky theoretical for me.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 20, 2014 20:28:19 GMT -5
But, in fairness, if they did give even the slightest indication that they would consider it, it would seriously hurt them with respect to convincing Stanton to sign a long-term deal there. And since that appears to be Plan A, they're much better off keeping everything close to the vest.
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Post by redsox4242 on Aug 22, 2014 12:29:29 GMT -5
After the signing Castillo, is it possible we will go after Stanton? We can include a load of prospects. Betts, Swihart, coyle, Johnson and Barnes for Stanton. That seems like a fair trade.
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Post by juniorp90 on Aug 22, 2014 12:46:19 GMT -5
After the signing Castillo, is it possible we will go after Stanton? We can include a load of prospects. Betts, Swihart, coyle, Johnson and Barnes for Stanton. That seems like a fair trade. Why? Ok, Stanton is the best power hitter right of the GL, but sacrificing your farm, both Betts and Swihart can become Super stars, not to mention Barnes, Owens, Johnson, etc. I think a better move would be to look at the market in free agency or a left-handed power hitter, I think Sandoval, Victor Martinez, Matt Adams...
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Post by redsox4242 on Aug 22, 2014 12:49:38 GMT -5
After the signing Castillo, is it possible we will go after Stanton? We can include a load of prospects. Betts, Swihart, coyle, Johnson and Barnes for Stanton. That seems like a fair trade. Why? Ok, Stanton is the best power hitter right of the GL, but sacrificing your farm, both Betts and Swihart can become Super stars, not to mention Barnes, Owens, Johnson, etc. I think a better move would be to look at the market in free agency or a left-handed power hitter, I think Sandoval, Victor Martinez, Matt Adams... I agree, But where does Betts play now? i love the kid, i think he is going to be a star. But does he still have a spot here. I want Betts to be our 3rd Baseman, why not give him a shot at 3rd. anyway, I think instead of including Johnson and Barnes we could include Escobar and Rodriguez. we have plenty of pitching, we need Offense!
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 26, 2014 5:41:27 GMT -5
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Post by rjp313jr on Aug 26, 2014 8:29:57 GMT -5
Barring Miami selling very low on Stanton, I really hope the Red Sox don't try to acquire him. 1. ... and I don't see any evidence the Red Sox will compete in 2015 or 16 even with Stanton. How can you truly feel this way after last season? This team is very similar to that one in that there's a lot if talent and they have a ton of ability (money and prospects) to jar done major moves. What if they resign Lester, add Shields, trade for Heyward and sign a guy like Kung Fu Panda? There are plenty of ways they can field a team to compete next year let alone in 2016.
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Post by burythehammer on Aug 26, 2014 11:36:02 GMT -5
Hmm, now where I have heard this theory before?
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Post by terriblehondo on Aug 28, 2014 10:01:28 GMT -5
A local sports reporter "Joe Rose" down here said the Stanton said after he did his Ice Bucket challenge that he was not going to resign down here as long as Luria owned the team.
This week Stanton said 5 months does not change 5 years.
Last year after the trades he was very pissed off with ownership and stated he just wants to win.
I thought no way Luria could afford to let Stanton go if he wants to make it work down here. That being said it takes two to Tango and that does not look like it is going to happen with how Stanton feels.
The way I see it is the Marlins need to make a high offer to Stanton to try and keep him first if he is steadfast in his resolve not to sign. They need to look into trading him this off season after of course telling everyone of their offer and his rejection of it.
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