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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 25, 2015 17:29:30 GMT -5
This guy is about as difficult to get a fix on as anyone I've watched over the years, which makes me very reluctant to embrace any specific projection. I'm sure there are examples, but I don't ever recall seeing a player adjust as quickly as he has, and at the age of 22 to boot. Over the course of a few months he eliminated what had been an obvious hole in his swing, all while improving his contact to the point where he's second in the league in BA. Not only did he close that hole, he turned it into a sweet spot. It's very unusual to have a player in the majors be able to do something like that this quickly, even rarer to have it be a kid.
I'm at a loss to know where he's going, but it's obvious there's still power there from watching the snap-and-crank wall balls he's belted over the last few weeks. I have no idea how he melds those two approaches or if he does. What I do know is that it's probably a mistake to undervalue his intelligence and how he approaches the game. He's a different cat.
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Post by blizzards39 on Sept 25, 2015 21:47:26 GMT -5
Only .012 behind Miggy in the batting title race and only 15 hits from 200
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Post by telson13 on Sept 25, 2015 22:18:37 GMT -5
I just think it's interesting how similarly he compares with Jeter at the same age, and as currently constituted, in hitting style. That's where I'm drawing my projection from, although I think it's unfair to think he's "likely" to replicate Jeter's career. For the most part, we probably agree, in that a "fair" expectation is probably in the .290-.300/.330-.350/.420-.450 range. I just happen to be optimistic based on his progress and adaptability, and the Jeter comp. I'm probably erring more on the "upside" than even-money point, because I like what I've seen/heard of his "intangibles." Regardless, it's going to be fun to watch him develop, especially if he signs an extension.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 25, 2015 22:45:02 GMT -5
I just think it's interesting how similarly he compares with Jeter at the same age, and as currently constituted, in hitting style. That's where I'm drawing my projection from, although I think it's unfair to think he's "likely" to replicate Jeter's career. For the most part, we probably agree, in that a "fair" expectation is probably in the .290-.300/.330-.350/.420-.450 range. I just happen to be optimistic based on his progress and adaptability, and the Jeter comp. I'm probably erring more on the "upside" than even-money point, because I like what I've seen/heard of his "intangibles." Regardless, it's going to be fun to watch him develop, especially if he signs an extension. Maybe this is silly, but I think Bogaerts has raw power that Jeter didn't have. Bogaerts is capable of hitting baseballs very far. It hasn't shown up often in games, but I think he has this power which will allow his SA to exceed that .420 - .450 range you're projecting. I think your estimates are conservative, but very reasonable. Mine might be more pie in the sky, but I think this kid will hit for a decent average, start taking more walks, and will hit with a lot more power in the not-so-distant future.
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Post by scottysmalls on Sept 25, 2015 23:02:11 GMT -5
I know it's incredibly unlikely but god would I be happy if they extended the young guns this off-season.
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Post by telson13 on Sept 26, 2015 20:24:16 GMT -5
I just think it's interesting how similarly he compares with Jeter at the same age, and as currently constituted, in hitting style. That's where I'm drawing my projection from, although I think it's unfair to think he's "likely" to replicate Jeter's career. For the most part, we probably agree, in that a "fair" expectation is probably in the .290-.300/.330-.350/.420-.450 range. I just happen to be optimistic based on his progress and adaptability, and the Jeter comp. I'm probably erring more on the "upside" than even-money point, because I like what I've seen/heard of his "intangibles." Regardless, it's going to be fun to watch him develop, especially if he signs an extension. Maybe this is silly, but I think Bogaerts has raw power that Jeter didn't have. Bogaerts is capable of hitting baseballs very far. It hasn't shown up often in games, but I think he has this power which will allow his SA to exceed that .420 - .450 range you're projecting. I think your estimates are conservative, but very reasonable. Mine might be more pie in the sky, but I think this kid will hit for a decent average, start taking more walks, and will hit with a lot more power in the not-so-distant future. I agree that his raw power is superior to Jeter's. And as they were both very advanced for their minor league levels (Bogaerts moreso), the ISO advantage Bogaerts has probably speaks to his in-game power as well. I think he's just not quite to the point where he can use it *at the MLB level*. It took Jeter three years to get there, at 25. Maybe Bogaerts will really break out in 2017. That said, it feels unfair to predict he'll hit .330 with 25+ HR for any extended period...even if I wouldn't be remotely surprised if he did. So yes, I'm being conservative relative to what I think a reasonable 10% prediction would be (.320/.370/.520 or so for five years around 25-29)
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Sept 26, 2015 21:09:48 GMT -5
Maybe this is silly, but I think Bogaerts has raw power that Jeter didn't have. Bogaerts is capable of hitting baseballs very far. It hasn't shown up often in games, but I think he has this power which will allow his SA to exceed that .420 - .450 range you're projecting. I think your estimates are conservative, but very reasonable. Mine might be more pie in the sky, but I think this kid will hit for a decent average, start taking more walks, and will hit with a lot more power in the not-so-distant future. I agree that his raw power is superior to Jeter's. And as they were both very advanced for their minor league levels (Bogaerts moreso), the ISO advantage Bogaerts has probably speaks to his in-game power as well. I think he's just not quite to the point where he can use it *at the MLB level*. It took Jeter three years to get there, at 25. Maybe Bogaerts will really break out in 2017. That said, it feels unfair to predict he'll hit .330 with 25+ HR for any extended period...even if I wouldn't be remotely surprised if he did. So yes, I'm being conservative relative to what I think a reasonable 10% prediction would be (.320/.370/.520 or so for five years around 25-29) Actually, we're not far off. I don't anticipate more .330 seasons in his future, but I would think .280 - .300 consistently with 30 home run power isn't out of the question. Add in an improving walk ratio and I think a .290/.360/.520 is highly reasonable.
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Post by ramireja on Sept 29, 2015 13:05:10 GMT -5
I was pretty surprised to see in Speier's writeup this morning, that Bogaerts leads American League regulars in having taken the extra base 70 percent of the time as a baserunner on singles and doubles. Its really been remarkable to watch his transformation both offensively and defensively this past year, but he deserves further credit for his improvements on the basepaths as well. Its clear he wants to be a complete player. Love it.
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Post by kman22 on Sept 29, 2015 13:11:20 GMT -5
6 games to go, he's at 192 hits. Will he get to 200?
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 1, 2015 17:44:15 GMT -5
Gordon Edes @gordonedes 6m6 minutes ago Source: Red Sox once could have had Giancarlo Stanton, but it would have cost Xander Bogaerts es.pn/1FLvQZd
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 1, 2015 20:19:00 GMT -5
updated with partial quote
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Post by thursty on Oct 1, 2015 20:59:45 GMT -5
I induced this exact scenario and posted about it earlier this year in these forums. And I feel that it wasn't serendipitous - without knowing who else the Red Sox would have had to include (WMB?) - it was a colossal error on the part of BC.
Stanton is a generational talent; Bogaerts isn't close to that
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Post by grandsalami on Oct 1, 2015 21:00:34 GMT -5
I induced this exact scenario and posted about it earlier this year in these forums. And I feel that it wasn't serendipitous - without knowing who else the Red Sox would have had to include (WMB?) - it was a colossal error on the part of BC. Stanton is a generational talent; Bogaerts isn't close to that Stanton is also injury prone
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Post by thursty on Oct 1, 2015 21:03:25 GMT -5
I induced this exact scenario and posted about it earlier this year in these forums. And I feel that it wasn't serendipitous - without knowing who else the Red Sox would have had to include (WMB?) - it was a colossal error on the part of BC. Stanton is a generational talent; Bogaerts isn't close to that Stanton is also injury prone Absolutely true, and you don't make that trade at that time without some close to an agreement on some reasonable (5-year?) extension, which may not have been feasible. But you don't hangup the phone just because Bogaerts is mentioned.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Oct 1, 2015 22:34:18 GMT -5
I induced this exact scenario and posted about it earlier this year in these forums. And I feel that it wasn't serendipitous - without knowing who else the Red Sox would have had to include (WMB?) - it was a colossal error on the part of BC. Stanton is a generational talent; Bogaerts isn't close to that It's also quite possible the Red Sox valued 6 plus years of cost controlled service from Bogaerts playing SS over paying out a potential $300 million to Stanton. And if you're the Sox and you were drooling over Stanton and I'm sure they were. I would guess they had no clue that the Marlins would re-sign him. What would be the odds of that happening? So why surrender cheap all-star caliber talent when you can spend the big bucks for him if you want him that bad and still have your all-star SS making league minimum?
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 2, 2015 0:02:23 GMT -5
I induced this exact scenario and posted about it earlier this year in these forums. And I feel that it wasn't serendipitous - without knowing who else the Red Sox would have had to include (WMB?) - it was a colossal error on the part of BC. Stanton is a generational talent; Bogaerts isn't close to that Stanton is a great player, but he's also drastically overrated. Just among outfielders, he's the fourth best hitter of his generation, and he plays less defense than the other three guys. Bogaerts is not that far behind him.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Oct 2, 2015 0:38:15 GMT -5
I induced this exact scenario and posted about it earlier this year in these forums. And I feel that it wasn't serendipitous - without knowing who else the Red Sox would have had to include (WMB?) - it was a colossal error on the part of BC. Stanton is a generational talent; Bogaerts isn't close to that At age 23 Stanton had a career high 5.5 bWAR, and Xander has 4.7. That's excluding baserunning (haven't been able to set up access to BP yet on my new machine; hopefully tomorrow). That's not close?
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Post by mredsox89 on Oct 2, 2015 0:38:49 GMT -5
If you go under the assumption that Stanton wasn't going to re-sign with Miami, which was the general consensus, if not more than that, and you knew you would be willing to sign him to a "whatever amount" deal, there's no way you trade Bogaerts for him straight up. Stanton has also missed a bunch of games, the nasty/unavoidable pitch to the face notwithstanding.
Stanton's bat is elite, no doubt. But it's not like it's unmatched. 2500 plate appearances from 2010-2015, he's 8th in wRC+. Cabrera, Trout, Votto, Bautista, McCutchen, Goldschmidt, Ortiz, Stanton. From 2011 on, he's 6th. So no doubt a top tier bat, but not really generational. He's also been a net 0 baserunner and a sub-par. 16th in fWAR from 2011-2015, 14th from 2011-2014. Stud, yes, worth $30/year on the back half of his contract, with the way salary inflation is going, probably. But on the premise of dealing Bogaerts for him and then having to sign him to a deal when you thought he was going to be a FA, no chance
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Post by burythehammer on Oct 2, 2015 6:26:35 GMT -5
In fairness I'm not sure there's anyone thursty wouldn't trade Bogaerts for.
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Post by thursty on Oct 2, 2015 6:33:56 GMT -5
In fairness I'm not sure there's anyone thursty wouldn't trade Bogaerts for. That's not true. I'd never trade Bogaerts straight up for JBJ
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Post by brianthetaoist on Oct 2, 2015 6:43:07 GMT -5
In a related tangent, is there a more frightening injury/contract situation than Stanton's lingering wrist issues from his broken hamate bone? Good lord, if I'm the Marlins, even though many, many players have gotten over a hamate break, I'd be terrified.
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Post by thursty on Oct 2, 2015 7:01:05 GMT -5
Frankly, I think all of the salary/contract speculations to be vacuous as there's just no way to know.
I'd be interested in a sampling of people here on the following (speculative scenario) say the Marlins were to offer Stanton for Bogaerts straight up *now*, with the proviso that a secret protocol has been reached between the Red Sox and Stanton that he will opt out after 2020 (which btw the Marlins are depending on) - that's ~ $100 guaranteed for Stanton over the next 5 years. Would you make that trade? (I can guess what sentiment here will be, but I'm curious)
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Post by burythehammer on Oct 2, 2015 7:05:21 GMT -5
In fairness I'm not sure there's anyone thursty wouldn't trade Bogaerts for. That's not true. I'd never trade Bogaerts straight up for JBJ
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Post by thursty on Oct 2, 2015 7:08:49 GMT -5
I induced this exact scenario and posted about it earlier this year in these forums. And I feel that it wasn't serendipitous - without knowing who else the Red Sox would have had to include (WMB?) - it was a colossal error on the part of BC. Stanton is a generational talent; Bogaerts isn't close to that Stanton is a great player, but he's also drastically overrated. Just among outfielders, he's the fourth best hitter of his generation, and he plays less defense than the other three guys. Bogaerts is not that far behind him. Actually none of them are great defenders; Obviously Trout is a *multi*-generational talent. I'd take Stanton over McCutcheon, ceteris paribus. Harper? Before this year, your claim would have been absurd. I don't know; I'd still prefer Stanton, but that's not defensible based solely on the statistical evidence
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Oct 2, 2015 7:16:11 GMT -5
In a related tangent, is there a more frightening injury/contract situation than Stanton's lingering wrist issues from his broken hamate bone? Good lord, if I'm the Marlins, even though many, many players have gotten over a hamate break, I'd be terrified. I actually wouldn't worry about the hamate specifically, it's such a common thing and I can't think of a player who hasn't come back from one. But that contract is terrifying. Stanton has at least stolen a handful of bases in recent memory so he's not a total old player skills guy, but he's still a lot closer to Adam Dunn than he is to Carlos Beltran, with an extensive injury history, and he's owed $25m a year until he's 38.
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