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Red Sox sign Edward Mujica (2 yr/9.5M)
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Post by redsox1534 on Dec 5, 2013 13:07:58 GMT -5
LOVE THE SIGNING!!! We needed a guy like this and he is a proven setup and 9th inning guy. 2 years 4.75 mill a year is the going rate, if not a tad under market for a guy like him. Now Naploi or a 1B and another bat an mybe a back up IF or platoon CF an were all set baby.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 5, 2013 13:08:30 GMT -5
Meanwhile, by my reckoning (based on Speier's plus MLBTradeRumor's arbitration estimates) they have $18.05M to spend on Napoli / X and a backup SS, if they want to leave $5M for a deadline deal. Of course they can cut into the latter figure a bit. This probably rules out a number of possibilities that have been kicked around, specifically re-signing both Napoli and Drew. I agree on the number (my running total has the Red Sox approx. $23.5mm below the threshold) but disagree that they would be unable to re-sign Napoli and Drew. The team is likely to jettison Dempster at some point once the free agent market clears up. Even if the team eats $3.5mm, it saves the team $10mm AAV. If Napoli signs for 15mm AAV and Drew for 13mm AAV, that leaves $5.25mm for in-season moves. If they were planning to move Dempster all along, I don't see why they were dicking around with Napoli instead of making him an early, attractive offer when they knew he wanted to come back here. Because the realistic alternatives really do seem to suck. And there's an argument for keeping Demspter around until ST (which I made elsewhere.) I also think that no one will take him on at $10M when he's been worth 0.8, 3.8, -0.2 bWAR the last three years. Weighted 3-2-1, that projects to $6.5M of value. I wouldn't count on more than $5M of relief.
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Post by taftreign on Dec 5, 2013 13:12:19 GMT -5
$5mm for a set up guy isn't bad. (Mike Adams signed 2/12; Affeldt 3/21; League 4/27.5[!]; Burnett 2/8; Broxton 3/21 - though, I suppose he may have irrationally been signed as a closer who never pitches, etc.) And jmei will be happy, which is nice. They signed a closer to non-closer $. That's nice. Agree. Not only does he offer security as a pitcher who can supplement the closer position but he just doesn't walk hitters very often. If your offense is going to be a little less potent then you are more likely playing in close 1 or 2 run games and you will need a solid bullpen to lean on. i feel 1000 x better about this move then when they signed Jenks to a 2 year and 12 to set up / back up Papelbon.
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Post by jmei on Dec 5, 2013 13:18:32 GMT -5
If they were planning to move Dempster all along, I don't see why they were dicking around with Napoli instead of making him an early, attractive offer when they knew he wanted to come back here. Because the realistic alternatives really do seem to suck. (1) Who's to say they didn't make him an early, attractive offer, but Napoli was just less willing than you think to take a big hometown discount before exploring the market? (2) The Red Sox probably don't want to give Napoli a third year, and I don't fault them for starting low and seeing what the market will bear. (3) The Red Sox could be high on Mike Carp and/or Corey Hart, or want to convert Nava to mostly 1B and add a left fielder. (4) Re-signing Napoli before dealing Dempster kills your leverage w/r/t a potential Dempster trade because now everyone knows you have to dump salary.
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Post by raftsox on Dec 5, 2013 13:22:08 GMT -5
Rumored to have some injury issues down the stretch. Also rumored to have been seeking a three-year deal. He's a proven 8th inning reliever, who could close if Uehara gets hurt or regresses, but it seems very expensive.Funny, I was about to say how cheap it seems. I guess you could argue that it's expensive in some kind of abstract sense but I don't see this contract as one that's going to hurt the Red Sox in any real way. Mujica's had a fascinating career path. Check out his ground/fly ratios over his career, and his pitch types. Started as an extreme flyball guy, developed a splitter, got to the point where he throws said splitter nearly half the time, and gets close to 45-50% ground balls the last couple years. During the playoffs Hershiser was talking about how underrated FB/Splitter pitchers were in today's game. Went on to say that they usually have good control, don't have big platoon splits, keep the ball on the ground, etc. Their only wart is that they tend to give up dingers, but as a reliever they're usually solo shots. I haven't done any research to see if this is true, but since hearing that I've been a fan of signing Mujica.
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Post by p23w on Dec 5, 2013 13:29:28 GMT -5
LOVE THE SIGNING!!! We needed a guy like this and he is a proven setup and 9th inning guy. 2 years 4.75 mill a year is the going rate, if not a tad under market for a guy like him. Now Naploi or a 1B and another bat an mybe a back up IF or platoon CF an were all set baby. Meh. Bailey money for a guy who ended the season with a bad back. The upside is that his results (bb/9 and gb/fb) are right where Farrell likes them.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 5, 2013 13:39:58 GMT -5
This is precisely the kind of RP signing I'd hoped they'd make. I like it.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 5, 2013 13:43:06 GMT -5
1.001 WHIP last four years sounds good to me. Interesting to see who gets traded.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 5, 2013 13:44:25 GMT -5
If they were planning to move Dempster all along, I don't see why they were dicking around with Napoli instead of making him an early, attractive offer when they knew he wanted to come back here. Because the realistic alternatives really do seem to suck. (1) Who's to say they didn't make him an early, attractive offer, but Napoli was just less willing than you think to take a big hometown discount before exploring the market? Reports in the media that they hadn't offered him a deal and/or weren't talking to him, reports that surprised me. Nobody's higher on Carp than me, but I can't figure out who you'd add to the roster instead of Napoli that would be a better fit. Corey Hart can't play 1B; he's basically Jonny Gomes plus the ability to play RF adequately (modulo coming off of knee surgery). No, they were never going to be in that position unless they had re-signed both Napoli and Ellsbury (I don't believe Drew has ever been in their plans, and we know Salty wasn't). Mujica's a great luxury, and the fact that they signed him two days after Ellsbury walked, for the difference between Napoli's expected AAV and what they were offering Ellsbury, strongly suggests where his money came from. It's a strategy consistent with budgeting for either Ellsbury, or Napoli plus Mujica, and in that strategy you don't need to deal Dempster. If re-signing Drew is still on the table because they intend to unload Dempster just beforehand (or, in any case, eventually), then I don't see why they didn't sign Mujica earlier and minimize the risk of being outbid while they waited. I like the idea of hanging on to all six starters until ST, which, after all, is something Cherington has been consistently saying they might well do, since the season ended.
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Post by jmei on Dec 5, 2013 13:46:20 GMT -5
And jmei will be happy, which is nice Was about to post this. Hey, I'm happy too! Great signing, if his injury concerns are tempered with all the rest. Aye, I'm pretty thrilled, especially because he came even cheaper than I projected. His decline at the end of the year obfuscated how dominant he was at the beginning of it. Through the end of July, he had a 38:2 K/BB (7.7 K/9, 0.4 BB/9)in 44.2 IP, 2.04 ERA, and an 0.79 WHIP (albeit with an averagish 1.01 HR/9). There were any number of glowing articles about how dominant his split/change was. But then he basically stopped striking guys out and giving up homers in bunches in August/September, in part due to general fatigue and a groin injury. Stylistically, he's basically Koji-lite-- throws a ton of split-fingers, doesn't walk anybody, has occasional problems with home runs. Ever since he started throwing the split-finger regularly in 2010, he hasn't had much of a platoon split (3.53 FIP versus righties, 3.67 FIP versus lefties), so he fits well as the 8th inning or as a fill-in closer. He'll only be 30 next year, which means the risk of catastrophic decline is low (well, as low as it can be for super-volatile relievers, anyways). As noted above, his contract is slightly below-market for very good setup men. This is just an excellent signing all around.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 5, 2013 13:58:44 GMT -5
If you believe Speier's figure, of having about 32m to spend then the Sox are down to about 17m as of now. www.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/alex-speier/2013/11/08/how-much-can-red-sox-spend-winter-2014-payroll32m - 2m (Badenhop) - 8.25m (AJ) - 4.75m (Mujica) = 17m left Now it's likely they save about 1.75m by either trading cutting Morales instead of going to arbitration with him, but that's still under 19m left. Speier leaves about 5m for in season improvements, which is probably the difference some are not factoring in, but it really needs to be factored in because there is very little likelihood they leave no wiggle room headed into the season.
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Post by jmei on Dec 5, 2013 14:01:46 GMT -5
Reports in the media that they hadn't offered him a deal and/or weren't talking to him, reports that surprised me. Do you have a link for this? His agent has noted that the Red Sox have been in communication with him and there are reports that the Red Sox made a multi-year offer to him early in free agency but that Napoli wanted to shop that offer around. He's got 857 career innings at 1B. His defensive numbers there might be pretty bad (-13.2 UZR/150, -12 TZ/yr, -8 DRS/yr), but they're not unplayable. Remember that Mike Napoli's defensive numbers at 1B were mediocre before 2013, too (-2.6 UZR, 1 TZ, -2 DRS). $4.25m a year to Mujica certainly doesn't close any doors. If the Red Sox need extra cash for Napoli and/or an outfielder and/or a SS/3B, there's plenty of unloadable cash even if they really want to keep Dempster (see, for instance, Gomes' $5m or Morales' projected $1.8m arb award or even Breslow's $3.8m). I'm finding it really hard to believe that there are any more efficient ways to spend $4m in free agency than to pick up an excellent late-innings reliever, one that replaces the many basically replacement-level guys (Brayan Villarreal, Franklin Morales, Alex Wilson, etc.) who would otherwise be in line for relief innings and provides the flexibility to have Workman and Britton start the year in Pawtucket (or be trade bait).
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 5, 2013 14:05:05 GMT -5
I'm a big fan of this signing. He throws strikes and has a K/BB ratio that Koji wouldn't sneeze at. Between Tazawa, Koji, and Mujica the Red Sox feature 3 righties with excellent control and late in the games you don't want your relievers putting men on base. If you get beat, make the other team beat you. Don't beat yourself.
He's exactly what the bullpen needed, a reliable 8th inning arm that can close and it should take the pressure off of Tazawa and Breslow who seemed to be the only options in a close game last season. The more quality options the better. The bullpen now has Koji, Mujica, Breslow, Tazawa, Miller, Badenhopm and Workman. That's a fantastic bullpen. That's a strong bullpen that can withstand an injury here or there - great depth and quality.
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Post by joshv02 on Dec 5, 2013 14:12:54 GMT -5
Someone help me here: they already tendered Morales; I assume they cannot cut him without paying (at least a portion) of the arb award, right? Previously, you could cut an arb elig player and pay only 1/6th (then a higher proportion) of the amount if the cut took place earlier enough. I don't know if the new CBA carries that forward (and I'm not in a position to look)...?
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 5, 2013 14:36:32 GMT -5
Great signing!! It was mentioned earlier that this could be an opening for moving Peavy or Dempster and possibly give Workman an opportunity to be in the rotation. That is exactly what I was thinking (and hoping). I would love to integrate a young starter into the rotation sooner than later. Workman, for me, is worth the chance and I believe could give us a decent 170 innings that are at least as good as Dempster. Sooner or later we will have to start promoting some of this depth we are accumulating in Pawtucket. Love to move either and what ever we can get for Morales.
Way to go Ben Cherington!
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Post by jdb on Dec 5, 2013 15:03:20 GMT -5
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Post by jmei on Dec 5, 2013 16:08:28 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 5, 2013 16:22:49 GMT -5
Makes me even more excited about this. This is a crazy stat: For a more general sense of the style, consider that, since 1900, 3200 pitchers have thrown at least 200 innings. Among them, just two guys have allowed more homers than unintentional walks. There’s Josh Towers, at +12, and Edward Mujica, at +8. In third is Koji Uehara, at -2.
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Post by Guidas on Dec 5, 2013 17:08:11 GMT -5
Like this move as much as I liked the Uehara move last year - which is to say a LOT.
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Post by mjammz on Dec 5, 2013 17:09:08 GMT -5
Love the signing. As regards to how much money they have to spend. Everyone is assuming they're not going to go over the lux tax threashold. But that may not be the case this year. With so much salary coming off the books next year and even more after 2015 (less than 20 m committed). They can go over for the time being and get back under easily the next two years. Not an open and closed case in my opinion.
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Post by pokeefe363 on Dec 5, 2013 17:13:22 GMT -5
I love this signing. Affordable rate for a guy who could fill-in at closer if needed. These are the kind of moves that help the team and don't kill the bottom line.
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jimoh
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Post by jimoh on Dec 5, 2013 17:15:51 GMT -5
Love the signing. As regards to how much money they have to spend. Everyone is assuming they are not going to go over the lux tax threashold. But that may not be the case this year. With so much salary coming off the books next year and even more the next year (less than 20 m committed). They can go over for the time being and get back under easily the next two years. Not a shut and dry case in my opinion. But isn't there the added wrinkle this year that being under the threshold brings back revenue-sharing money?
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Post by Oregon Norm on Dec 5, 2013 17:27:25 GMT -5
I sense some synergy here. They can start by trading notes. How is Mujica's Japanese?
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Post by jmei on Dec 5, 2013 17:31:51 GMT -5
I sense some synergy here. They can start by trading notes. How is Mujica's Japanese? They can communicate through dance:
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Post by amfox1 on Dec 5, 2013 17:36:00 GMT -5
Love the signing. As regards to how much money they have to spend. Everyone is assuming they're not going to go over the lux tax threashold. But that may not be the case this year. With so much salary coming off the books next year and even more after 2015 (less than 20 m committed). They can go over for the time being and get back under easily the next two years. Not an open and closed case in my opinion. Your opinion is wrong. Do some research (here's a hint: type in "$189 million" "2014" and "collective bargaining agreement", add in "Red Sox" if you'd like to be team-specific) and then come back to the board. Really, this has been a central tenet of all teams since the new CBA was announced.
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