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Post by brendan98 on Dec 5, 2013 13:53:56 GMT -5
How great is it to have 2 outstanding catching prospects that will be in the upper level of the minors this season? I would like to know which one of Vazquez and Swihart best profiles to be the Red Sox long term answer at catcher after a stopgap season with AJP and Ross handling catching duites?
I like Vazquez, the potentially elite defense and strong OBP, would be a rare combo at the position IMO.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 5, 2013 14:02:36 GMT -5
If Vazquez exceeds his scouting report and is a strong starting MLB catcher, I think Swihart is athletic enough to handle just about any other position. Nice problem to have.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 5, 2013 14:37:53 GMT -5
You forgot Denney who is a high upside player, thats very far away, but great to have those type of players in the pipeline. Vazquez is almost ready for the Majors, while Swihart is a year and a half away min. The Sox don't rush their catchers. Vazquez seems like a future starting catching, while Swihart could be a future all star. Long term I see them sharing time for years, unless the Sox deal one of them, with Swihart getting a larger amount of playing time. A lot depends on how Swihart progresses, so far he'd lived up to the scouting reports, elite hitter for a catcher, that should see increased power as he gets older.
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Post by sibbysisti on Dec 5, 2013 14:38:15 GMT -5
Why not both?
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 5, 2013 15:10:42 GMT -5
Not to knock Vazquez, but I like Swihart better by quite a bit. Quicker hands at the plate, and his swing just has a natural ease to it. As he adds strength, his doubles will turn into home runs. I'm a huge fan.
I think Vazquez is going to run into a bit of resistance at Triple-A, where there are more polished pitchers who can control their stuff. Vazquez is great at laying off stuff out of the strike zone, but I think he'll have to make a big adjustment and punish mistakes more, or those more advanced pitchers just aren't going to be careful with him. That doesn't mean I think he'll be a stiff - he's still only 23, which is amazing considering how long he's been around - but I think he's more than a year away from being a qualified major league starter.
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Post by charliezink16 on Dec 5, 2013 16:12:04 GMT -5
The great thing is that Vazquez doesn't need to reach his ceiling to provide value for the Sox. If he isn't able to hit enough at the MLB level to warrant starting consideration, he's still a strong backup with the ability to get on base and provide excellent defense. If Swihart pans out and CVaz doesn't reach his ceiling, we could be looking at a Swihart/Vazquez tandem by 2016. Really excited to finally have strong catching prospects in the minors.
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Post by Don Caballero on Dec 5, 2013 16:21:00 GMT -5
How great is it to have 2 outstanding catching prospects that will be in the upper level of the minors this season? Not a slight on Vazquez by any means, but Swihart is the one "outstanding catching prospect". Vazquez profiles more as a fantastic backup.
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Post by elguapo on Dec 5, 2013 16:36:06 GMT -5
Vazquez profiles more as a fantastic backup. Given the state of Major League catching, a fantastic backup = a starter. Even a guy like Butler could be a starter on the right team at the right time, as Speier pointed out in yesterday's article.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 5, 2013 16:38:18 GMT -5
With Vazquez' defense, he just needs to OPS around .650 to be an MLB starter.
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Post by Don Caballero on Dec 5, 2013 16:40:04 GMT -5
Let me rephrase my previous post: Vazquez profiles more as a fantastic backup FOR Swihart. That could be one of the top catching tandems in the MLB, so why not?
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 5, 2013 16:50:27 GMT -5
With Vazquez' defense, he just needs to OPS around .650 to be an MLB starter. Swihart, not Vazquez, was named the Red Sox minor league defensive player of the year. Vazquez has the better arm, but Swihart is the more complete defensive player. It depends on the composition of that .650 OPS. If he has a .290 OBP and .360 SLG, then he isn't hitting well enough to start unless he's Yadier Molina behind the plate. If he has a .325 OBP/.325 SLG, that is good enough to start. But it's pretty rare that a player who only slugs .325 will walk enough to put up a .325 OBP. Not impossible, for sure, but Gregor Blanco and Elvis Andrus were the only players (400+ PAs) who had a .325+ OBP with a SLG below .350.
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Post by pedey on Dec 5, 2013 16:55:08 GMT -5
I'd say they are similar players, but I see Vazquez more as a long-term catcher. Swihart has the athletic ability to play almost anywhere. I don't see Vazquez ever moving from behind the dish. Vazquez is a glove-first catcher, and Swihart is more on the offensive side.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 5, 2013 16:57:54 GMT -5
Swihart showed offensive potential AND improvement behind the plate this year. To me he is more likely to end up a starting caliber C but as others have mentioned I think both will form a catching tandem.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 5, 2013 17:01:31 GMT -5
I'd say they are similar players, but I see Vazquez more as a long-term catcher. Swihart has the athletic ability to play almost anywhere. I don't see Vazquez ever moving from behind the dish. Vazquez is a glove-first catcher, and Swihart is more on the offensive side. But as mentioned above Swihart won defensive player of the year and was voted the best defensive c in the Carolina league by a Baseball America poll of coaches an league personnel. Maybe, just maybe he is good at both.
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Post by pedey on Dec 5, 2013 17:07:17 GMT -5
I'd say they are similar players, but I see Vazquez more as a long-term catcher. Swihart has the athletic ability to play almost anywhere. I don't see Vazquez ever moving from behind the dish. Vazquez is a glove-first catcher, and Swihart is more on the offensive side. But as mentioned above Swihart won defensive player of the year and was voted the best defensive c in the Carolina league by a Baseball America poll of coaches an league personnel. Maybe, just maybe he is good at both. I know that Vazquez has the superior arm, but does Swihart call a better game and frame pitches better, or does he also have a great arm as well?
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Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 5, 2013 17:14:26 GMT -5
Vasquez also had 20 something passed balls last year. I'm not here to disparage him Vasquez is a fine prospect. I just want Swihart to get recognition for what he has done, he has worked his butt off and it looks like its paying off.
Others that have seen them both more can tell you more on your questions.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 5, 2013 17:16:36 GMT -5
It's more his footwork and pitch blocking that he's gotten plaudits for. In this piece from our own Jon Meoli at ESPN Boston he also got recognition for his pitch framing. His arm is quite good, though I don't think he has the insane release that Vazquez does. I don't think there's a lot of stock we can put into pitch framing at Single-A.
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Post by wskeleton76 on Dec 5, 2013 20:41:40 GMT -5
While Vazquez is more polished Swihart has much more potential. I believe Swihart will eventually be a very good starting catcher.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 5, 2013 22:05:19 GMT -5
I'd say they are similar players, but I see Vazquez more as a long-term catcher. Swihart has the athletic ability to play almost anywhere. I don't see Vazquez ever moving from behind the dish. Vazquez is a glove-first catcher, and Swihart is more on the offensive side. But as mentioned above Swihart won defensive player of the year and was voted the best defensive c in the Carolina league by a Baseball America poll of coaches an league personnel. Maybe, just maybe he is good at both. This. Why are people moving him off catcher? I feel like a lot of folks are still thinking of Swihart in terms of his pre-draft scouting report. It's Swihart and it's not close. And that's not to disparage Vazquez. Certainly not the be-all, end-all, but look at the Brass Top 40s we ran this fall: Swihart: 4, 5, 5, 4, 8 (7 by the forum) Vazquez: 14, 15, 11, 11, 13 (13 by the forum) Don't overthink this because Vazquez has the flashy catching tool in his arm. I think part of the problem is the fact that guys in Greenville and Salem either tend to get sensationalized or marginalized because we don't see them as often in the northeast, and we rely more on stats and what we hear. Swihart's year wasn't flashy at all, but there's a reason scouts who saw him were glowing. I remember Parks, for example, being extremely complimentary of him.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Dec 5, 2013 22:40:25 GMT -5
Like the commercials say, isn't "and" better than "or?" Who wants sour chicken?
But there may be another reason to clutch them both close to the organization's bosom. Neither of them is overly large, and I know with Swihart especially there is a nagging concern, since he's not large in the lower body, that he may not hold up over the longer term (one other reason why people are thinking about other positions he can play.) Maybe in a few years we'll NEED them both behind the plate, because of wear and tear.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 5, 2013 22:50:53 GMT -5
By the way, to add one thing after re-reading the original question, there's no chance Swihart is ready for the 2014 season, fwiw. I think we're looking 2015 if all goes to plan.
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Post by iakovos11 on Dec 5, 2013 22:55:25 GMT -5
2015 is even very aggressive. That's one year in AA and no AAA. Very aggressive for a catcher. I think he'll need most of 2015 in AAA to refine is skills and learn to call games even better.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 5, 2013 23:01:44 GMT -5
2015 is even very aggressive. That's one year in AA and no AAA. Very aggressive for a catcher. I think he'll need most of 2015 in AAA to refine is skills and learn to call games even better. Crap, sorry, meant 2016. One year at each level. Was counting 2013 as the upcoming season.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 6, 2013 4:33:18 GMT -5
2014 AJ & Ross with Butler expresswaying himself and Vazquez getting a Sept call up. 2015 Vasquez & Butler with unknown as the AAA catcher for callups (Likely a past his prime veteran catcher), Swihart gets a Sept call up. 2016 and after Swihart and Vazquez with Denney looming.
Lavarnway is the odd man out, I can't see the Sox taking playing time from anybody, particularly in 2014. Anyone have a spare first baseman's mitt ?
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Post by joshv02 on Dec 6, 2013 9:19:41 GMT -5
With Vazquez' defense, he just needs to OPS around .650 to be an MLB starter. Swihart, not Vazquez, was named the Red Sox minor league defensive player of the year. Vazquez has the better arm, but Swihart is the more complete defensive player. It depends on the composition of that .650 OPS. If he has a .290 OBP and .360 SLG, then he isn't hitting well enough to start unless he's Yadier Molina behind the plate. If he has a .325 OBP/.325 SLG, that is good enough to start. But it's pretty rare that a player who only slugs .325 will walk enough to put up a .325 OBP. Not impossible, for sure, but Gregor Blanco and Elvis Andrus were the only players (400+ PAs) who had a .325+ OBP with a SLG below .350. I mainly agree. Yes, there is a positive correlation b/w BB% and ISO. When ISO goes down, so does BB%. We don't know in which direction there is causality, if it isn't (there is a third attribute that cuases both), or if it is both/synergistic. In other words, when ISO goes down we expect that BB% goes down, and we don't know if (a) that is because pitchers don't fear the noodle bats with high BB rates, that (b) a causal effect of having a high ISO is the same as having a high BB% (i.e., a good eye lets batters hit the ball hard more often AND take more walks), or (c) that players with low SLG aren’t valued by baseball teams (there are only 19 players with 400+ PAs and a SLG below .350) [and incidentally, those that are have other ways to contribute – e.g., defensively] and what we are really seeing is survivorship bias in how GMs select rosters. What this means is that Vazquez could (a) be the exception along the lines of Blanco/Andrus, (b) develop more appropriate power, or (c) be someone in whom a team recognizes value enough to ignore the combination, or (d) flame out. The odds are always on (d), of course, but we don’t really know which direction it will go.
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