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Re-sign Stephen Drew? (5/20 EDIT: Drew re-signed 1yr deal)
ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 10, 2013 12:59:48 GMT -5
Could it be because they benched Middlebrooks in the middle of a World Series run, even with Drew mired in what seemed to be a 0-for-175 slump? They can say whatever they want about how much they believe in him, but actions speak louder than words. I think that's a good way to justify my feelings. I really can't pinpoint why I feel this way. I just believe the team values Drew more than Middlebrooks. I think Middlebrooks has gotten to that Josh Reddick point where the team starts to question if his approach is worth keeping or if it's best to survey its options, and -- as I said -- I think the best option is to sign Drew to a two or three year deal, move Bogaerts to third permanently, and ship Middlebrooks for some depth or package him for a first baseman or outfielder. In this scenario, I envision Cecchini moving to LF and Marrero taking the reigns at short at the end of Drew's contract. Admittedly, Marrero might be ready before three years, but you never know. If they do sign Drew, his contract will reflect how the club feels about its prospects at short. To reply to both points at once ... being benched for Xander Bogarts doesn't mean they think you suck. It's like concluding that Tom Brady thought Bridget Moynahan was ugly. Kevin, when do you think the Sox soured on WMB? Because when I talked to Tom Tippett about the Iglesias trade in early August, I didn't mention WMB, but he brought up how high the F.O. still was on him as part of why Iglesias was expendable. And then he hit .276 / .329 / .476 after his recall, which doesn't suck. Oh, and you really want to do Marrero -> Bogaerts -> Cecchini -> LF? Carl Yastrzemski, Jim Rice, Mike Greenwell, Manny Ramirez, Jason Bay ... Deven Marrero. Can you spot the outlier? You could get massive defensive upgrades at SS and 3B (which you're not going to get) and still lose on that exchange.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 10, 2013 13:30:58 GMT -5
Nick Cafardo ?@nickcafardo 40m Mets still in SS market. Stephen Drew still in play.
Rob Bradford ?@bradfo 42m One exec with team thought to be possibly linked with Drew still thinks SS lands back with Red Sox
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 10, 2013 13:38:23 GMT -5
To reply to both points at once ... being benched for Xander Bogarts doesn't mean they think you suck. It's like concluding that Tom Brady thought Bridget Moynahan was ugly. Except that the decision wasn't WMB versus Bogaerts, it was WMB/Drew/Bogarts, choose any two. Drew/Bogaerts represented the best combination in last October, and I think they represent the best combination next april. Now, that has to be weighed against the cost of signing Drew, which we don't know, the potential return for WMB in a trade, which we don't know, and the value of Drew's comp pick, which we actually do sort of know, but the Red Sox may feel differently about the matter. And of course we also don't know how much the Red Sox actually like Cecchini. Maybe they think he's the third baseman of the future. Maybe they think he's the LF of the future. Maybe they think he's overvalued trade bait. So yeah, I don't know. There's scenarios where Drew comes back and it's a good thing, and there's scenarios where he comes back and it's a bad thing. It's easy to get on a message board and start spouting off about "don't sign Drew, he's teh suck!", but saying that assumes a lot of things that no one will actually know until after these decisions are made.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 10, 2013 13:48:18 GMT -5
Nick Cafardo ?@nickcafardo 40m Mets still in SS market. Stephen Drew still in play. Rob Bradford ?@bradfo 42m One exec with team thought to be possibly linked with Drew still thinks SS lands back with Red Sox Drew would only cost the Mets their 3rd round pick now. But we'd rather he signed with Pit or Cin, either of which would move all our picks up one. The exec that Bradford quotes is under the impression we want Drew back.
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rjp313jr
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 10, 2013 13:50:30 GMT -5
Eric that's Cecchini in your scenario not Marrero. Sox wouldn't do taht move if they felt Bogaerts could play a good short-stop.
I also don't see what trading Iglesias has to do with any of the decisions made this off-season. If they sign Drew, and move WMB or put him in a backup role it doesn't saying anything about the Iglesias trade. They traded him because they felt they had a need for a team that could win the WS and they had OPTIONS (not a set in stone plan) for the left side of the infield going forward. The options are part of what made Iglesias expendable.
Coming into last year Iglesias, had very little trade value. He built it back up, mostly through fluke hitting (in my and several others opinion). People get all gushy about his glove and it's phenomenal, but it is very severely handicapped by his bat. Anyone thing he's going to repeat or come close to repeating his .356 BABIP next year? The trade probably says more about what they thought of him than anything else.
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Post by jmei on Dec 10, 2013 13:57:05 GMT -5
The exec that Bradford quotes is under the impression we want Drew back. I mean, by all public indications, the Red Sox do want Drew back. See, e.g.:
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 10, 2013 14:01:17 GMT -5
To reply to both points at once ... being benched for Xander Bogarts doesn't mean they think you suck. It's like concluding that Tom Brady thought Bridget Moynahan was ugly. Except that the decision wasn't WMB versus Bogaerts, it was WMB/Drew/Bogarts, choose any two. Drew/Bogaerts represented the best combination in last October, and I think they represent the best combination next april. Now, that has to be weighed against the cost of signing Drew, which we don't know, the potential return for WMB in a trade, which we don't know, and the value of Drew's comp pick, which we actually do sort of know, but the Red Sox may feel differently about the matter. And of course we also don't know how much the Red Sox actually like Cecchini. Maybe they think he's the third baseman of the future. Maybe they think he's the LF of the future. Maybe they think he's overvalued trade bait. So yeah, I don't know. There's scenarios where Drew comes back and it's a good thing, and there's scenarios where he comes back and it's a bad thing. It's easy to get on a message board and start spouting off about "don't sign Drew, he's teh suck!", but saying that assumes a lot of things that no one will actually know until after these decisions are made. For perhaps the 40th time, I'll mention that we do know that they gave Iglesias away to clear a path for Bogaerts at SS. At the end of July, they felt so strongly that Bogaerts' future was at SS that they knowingly got pennies on the dollar for one of the best young SS in the game, in order to outbid other teams for Peavy, whom they furthermore regarded not as an upgrade, but as an insurance policy and depth addition. That actually tells us a lot of what they feel, and I doubt anything has changed in the last two months. To reiterate: in trading Jose Iglesias, they made an absolute and total commitment to Xander Bogaerts at SS, and we know this to be true. The only two possible rationales for that trade were a) they were selling high on a guy they didn't think would be an above-average MLB SS, or b) no matter how good Iglesias could reasonably be, they couldn't see any scenario where they'd end up better with him at SS and Bogaerts at 3B. Well, I talked to Tom Tippett a week after the trade, and the answer was b.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 10, 2013 14:04:09 GMT -5
I'd find it odd that Drew would want to come back and get into the platoon that he'd likely wind up in if not this year, then next year (or become trade bait). One of WMB or Cecchini is going to force his way on the field more than likely before Drew's contract is over. I don't want Xander missing games and I'm sure the Sox front office doesn't either.
I think he's the kind of guy who wants a certain starting SS job, which is also why I bet he doesn't go to the Yankees.
Basically, I don't see Drew back unless WMB is traded, and that leaves us without the depth we're looking for anyway. Drew is more of a sure thing than WMB, but I don't think we'd be maximizing assets by trading him now and his upside is much higher. If WMB can add 30 points to all 3 parts of his slash line, he's an above average hitting third baseman with at least average defense. With years of team control, that's a pretty big asset to hold onto. And some non-Sabermetric teams still LOVE the power, see the interest in Trumbo. This also ignores where they want Xander to play.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 10, 2013 14:06:13 GMT -5
By trading Iglesias away, they made an absolute and total commitment to not having Jose Iglesias on the team anymore and instead having Jake Peavy. That is all that we know. We can interpret other things, but we only know what actually happened.
It may well have been an indication that they thought Bogaerts was the shortstop of the future, but it is just as likely that they had come to the simple conclusion that Iglesias wasn't. And, after two years of not hitting a lick, Iglesias had built his value up enough by hitting some infield singles that the Red Sox were able to swing a moderately dependable fourth starter for him.
The name dropping is tiresome. If Tom Tippett is dropping you inside info, it may be because he knows you post it on message boards and they want it floated publicly. An employee of the Red Sox isn't going to come out and say "yeah, that dude sucked, can you believe someone wanted him after the bum hit a few infield singles?!?"
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 10, 2013 14:10:16 GMT -5
And with a decent 2014 from Peavy, another comp pick. Plus whatever they get from a possible Dempster trade.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 10, 2013 14:14:38 GMT -5
Coming into last year Iglesias, had very little trade value. He built it back up, mostly through fluke hitting (in my and several others opinion). People get all gushy about his glove and it's phenomenal, but it is very severely handicapped by his bat. Anyone thing he's going to repeat or come close to repeating his .356 BABIP next year? The trade probably says more about what they thought of him than anything else.For the 41st time, I talked to my former colleague among the Sox statistical consultants, Tom Tippett (hired full-time at the same time I was laid off, because he'd been working on Carmine for years and it still wasn't finished!). He was aware that I had despised the Iglesias trade, and told that my analysis (at SoSH) had been passed around the FO. As a professional courtesy (and without saying it was off the record!) he laid out the whole rationale for the trade. The part in bold? Wrong. They remained high on Iglesias as a SS. You know how low the bar is for him to hit and still be a first-division starter, with that glove? They traded him because they were really high on Xander as a SS. And in part because, between Cecchini and WMB, they had 3B really well covered, too (I mentioned GC, Tom brought up WMB).
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Post by elguapo on Dec 10, 2013 14:23:39 GMT -5
One thing Drew wants for sure is the Red Sox involved in the bidding.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 10, 2013 14:37:46 GMT -5
Would be nice right now to trade Peavy back for Iglesias.
The trade of Iglesias was likely because they considered him expendable (because of WMB, Cecchini, Xander) in order to improve the team more than anything else.
I actually believe that Iggy will have a higher BAPIP than many because of his infield hits. I think it's somewhat sustainable because he's one of the fastest guys out of the box I've seen. But I don't want to get into that endless debate again, so that's the last post on that for me.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Dec 10, 2013 14:42:55 GMT -5
I'd find it odd that Drew would want to come back and get into the platoon that he'd likely wind up in if not this year, then next year (or become trade bait). One of WMB or Cecchini is going to force his way on the field more than likely before Drew's contract is over. I don't want Xander missing games and I'm sure the Sox front office doesn't either. I think he's the kind of guy who wants a certain starting SS job, which is also why I bet he doesn't go to the Yankees. Basically, I don't see Drew back unless WMB is traded, and that leaves us without the depth we're looking for anyway. Drew is more of a sure thing than WMB, but I don't think we'd be maximizing assets by trading him now and his upside is much higher. If WMB can add 30 points to all 3 parts of his slash line, he's an above average hitting third baseman with at least average defense. With years of team control, that's a pretty big asset to hold onto. And some non-Sabermetric teams still LOVE the power, see the interest in Trumbo. This also ignores where they want Xander to play. They would probably not platoon Drew and instead deal Cechini/ WMB.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Dec 10, 2013 14:47:13 GMT -5
The name dropping is tiresome. If Tom Tippett is dropping you inside info, it may be because he knows you post it on message boards and they want it floated publicly. An employee of the Red Sox isn't going to come out and say "yeah, that dude sucked, can you believe someone wanted him after the bum hit a few infield singles?!?" This spin is the opposite of what they're floating publicly elsewhere (that they're still open to Drew returning), so that would be pretty bizarre on Tom's part. As would the assumption that opposing GMs or player agents are reading this board. And I think I would have had a sense that he was bullshitting me, when in fact he approached me to tell me that the FO had seen how much I hated the trade, and gave me the inside F.O. rationale for it. Which did make me feel much better about it. I'm sorry you find it tiresome that I used to work for the team and that there are people in the FO who respect me enough that they'll go out of their way to explain the rationale for a trade I thought was terrible. Imagine how tiresome it is to share that info and have people question it continuously, when it makes perfect sense to begin with. If Bogaerts can play a good SS, you can only lose value by moving him to 3B: that's a sabermetric fact. If you've seen Bogaerts play SS, you ought to believe he can play it well; I know I reached that conclusion the first time I saw him there, and immediately changed my mind on whether we should have kept Iglesias. Committing to Bogaerts at SS is a pretty obviously good thing to do; my reporting I have inside info that the team has done just that is not exactly Breaking News. It's like claiming you have inside info that you should drink a beverage when thirsty.
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 10, 2013 14:54:45 GMT -5
I think what Eric is trying to say is that the Red Sox believed in July that their highest value outcomes long-term will always be with Xander Bogarts at SS. Now we can debate what Tom Tippet told Eric and what it means and what we know, or don't know. We can also debate if this is actually correct or not. But let's think of the implications of this for a second.
If it is in fact true that the highest value outcomes are all with Bogarts at SS that means that all of the stories about the Red Sox possibly resigning Drew are a bunch of baloney. It also means that the Red Sox aren't trading Middlebrooks either. We all know that half of the writers just make stuff up based upon their fleeting dreams of themselves as grand poobahs of baseball, a job at which they would all fail miserably by the way.
I guess we will see if that is actually true. Personally I would like to see Middlebrooks, Bradley, and Bogarts all in the lineup next year and learn that dreams of Matt Kemp starting in CF are just the wet dreams of some dumb writers.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 10, 2013 15:13:03 GMT -5
I'd find it odd that Drew would want to come back and get into the platoon that he'd likely wind up in if not this year, then next year (or become trade bait). One of WMB or Cecchini is going to force his way on the field more than likely before Drew's contract is over. I don't want Xander missing games and I'm sure the Sox front office doesn't either. I think he's the kind of guy who wants a certain starting SS job, which is also why I bet he doesn't go to the Yankees. Basically, I don't see Drew back unless WMB is traded, and that leaves us without the depth we're looking for anyway. Drew is more of a sure thing than WMB, but I don't think we'd be maximizing assets by trading him now and his upside is much higher. If WMB can add 30 points to all 3 parts of his slash line, he's an above average hitting third baseman with at least average defense. With years of team control, that's a pretty big asset to hold onto. And some non-Sabermetric teams still LOVE the power, see the interest in Trumbo. This also ignores where they want Xander to play. They would probably not platoon Drew and instead deal Cechini/ WMB. And that defeats the purpose of bringing Drew back.
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Post by jmei on Dec 10, 2013 15:16:47 GMT -5
Things that have changed since July: - After hitting .233/.313/.409 (94 wRC+) in the first half, Stephen Drew hits .276/.356/.481 (125 wRC+) in the second half. He also continues to play above-average defense through the end of the season and the playoffs.
- Drew's market is surprisingly limited, as the team most likely to pursue him (the Cardinals) go with Peralta and other potential suitors (Pirates, Mets, Yankees) find themselves under tighter-than-expected budget constraints.
- After destroying the Carolina League to the tune of a .350/.469/.547 line, Garin Cecchini takes a small step back in AA (.296/.420/.404). Most notably, his ISO slips to a below-average .108.
- Middlebrooks comes back from his minor league sabbatical and tears it up in August before slumping from September through the playoffs, returning to his bad plate discipline habits along the way. He also continues to struggle with his defense.
- The Red Sox win the World Series, suggesting that "the next great Red Sox team" may have arrived prematurely and imbuing the front office with more of a "win now" mentality.
- The Red Sox find the market for power bats blowing up and contemplate potential trades that involve Middlebrooks that they believe would improve the organization.
Given the above, it's certainly possible that the front office has changed its thinking since July and is open to the idea of re-signing Drew at the right price (and thus moving Xander to 3B at least part of the time).
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Dec 10, 2013 15:19:18 GMT -5
They would probably not platoon Drew and instead deal Cechini/ WMB. And that defeats the purpose of bringing Drew back. Not if you think Drew is better than WMB (or that they may want to move him) and that Cecchini will need to move off 3B, for example. Not saying that I think this, but just that there is certainly a potential justification that we can read into this.
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Post by ramireja on Dec 10, 2013 15:21:15 GMT -5
The exec that Bradford quotes is under the impression we want Drew back. I mean, by all public indications, the Red Sox do want Drew back. See, e.g.: That quote by Cherington can pretty much be paraphrased as "Yeah, I don't think its going to work out...its not you, its me."
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Post by jmei on Dec 10, 2013 15:21:52 GMT -5
I've decided to consolidate the Drew discussion, which has been spilling out onto multiple threads. Because I'm moving posts from multiple threads, there is probably a little disjunction here at least to start.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Dec 10, 2013 15:25:57 GMT -5
No thank you. Give me the pick.
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Post by mainesox on Dec 10, 2013 15:27:09 GMT -5
I'd find it odd that Drew would want to come back and get into the platoon that he'd likely wind up in if not this year, then next year (or become trade bait). One of WMB or Cecchini is going to force his way on the field more than likely before Drew's contract is over. I don't want Xander missing games and I'm sure the Sox front office doesn't either. I think he's the kind of guy who wants a certain starting SS job, which is also why I bet he doesn't go to the Yankees. Basically, I don't see Drew back unless WMB is traded, and that leaves us without the depth we're looking for anyway. Drew is more of a sure thing than WMB, but I don't think we'd be maximizing assets by trading him now and his upside is much higher. If WMB can add 30 points to all 3 parts of his slash line, he's an above average hitting third baseman with at least average defense. With years of team control, that's a pretty big asset to hold onto. And some non-Sabermetric teams still LOVE the power, see the interest in Trumbo. This also ignores where they want Xander to play. They aren't going to sign Drew to a multi-year multi-million-dollar contract to have him platoon with Middlebrooks.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 10, 2013 15:33:02 GMT -5
I'm all for it. Trade WMB and have Cecchini work on his outfield skills.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 10, 2013 15:33:57 GMT -5
And that defeats the purpose of bringing Drew back. Not if you think Drew is better than WMB (or that they may want to move him) and that Cecchini will need to move off 3B, for example. Not saying that I think this, but just that there is certainly a potential justification that we can read into this. Obviously they know way better than we do what the demand for WMB is, but I thought the main thing we need is depth at SS/3B, even more than just an upgrade over WMB. I guess we can make two moves, but it's not really making sense right now. Plus I think WMB's trade value will likely go up after a year even if it's just a modest BAPIP correction. Hell, maybe that correction is all he needs to get his confidence back, improving his pitch selection too. He seems to overthink.
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