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Re-sign Stephen Drew? (5/20 EDIT: Drew re-signed 1yr deal)
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 10, 2013 15:35:27 GMT -5
I'd find it odd that Drew would want to come back and get into the platoon that he'd likely wind up in if not this year, then next year (or become trade bait). One of WMB or Cecchini is going to force his way on the field more than likely before Drew's contract is over. I don't want Xander missing games and I'm sure the Sox front office doesn't either. I think he's the kind of guy who wants a certain starting SS job, which is also why I bet he doesn't go to the Yankees. Basically, I don't see Drew back unless WMB is traded, and that leaves us without the depth we're looking for anyway. Drew is more of a sure thing than WMB, but I don't think we'd be maximizing assets by trading him now and his upside is much higher. If WMB can add 30 points to all 3 parts of his slash line, he's an above average hitting third baseman with at least average defense. With years of team control, that's a pretty big asset to hold onto. And some non-Sabermetric teams still LOVE the power, see the interest in Trumbo. This also ignores where they want Xander to play. They aren't going to sign Drew to a multi-year multi-million-dollar contract to have him platoon with Middlebrooks. And Middlebrooks isn't going to block Cecchini in AAA and isn't going to sit on the bench rotting away. As I've said 100 times, signing Drew goes hand in hand with trading WMB. In fact, I bet Drew doesn't even sign before the trade is made.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 10, 2013 16:19:10 GMT -5
Except that the decision wasn't WMB versus Bogaerts, it was WMB/Drew/Bogarts, choose any two. Drew/Bogaerts represented the best combination in last October, and I think they represent the best combination next april. Now, that has to be weighed against the cost of signing Drew, which we don't know, the potential return for WMB in a trade, which we don't know, and the value of Drew's comp pick, which we actually do sort of know, but the Red Sox may feel differently about the matter. And of course we also don't know how much the Red Sox actually like Cecchini. Maybe they think he's the third baseman of the future. Maybe they think he's the LF of the future. Maybe they think he's overvalued trade bait. So yeah, I don't know. There's scenarios where Drew comes back and it's a good thing, and there's scenarios where he comes back and it's a bad thing. It's easy to get on a message board and start spouting off about "don't sign Drew, he's teh suck!", but saying that assumes a lot of things that no one will actually know until after these decisions are made. For perhaps the 40th time, I'll mention that we do know that they gave Iglesias away to clear a path for Bogaerts at SS. At the end of July, they felt so strongly that Bogaerts' future was at SS that they knowingly got pennies on the dollar for one of the best young SS in the game, in order to outbid other teams for Peavy, whom they furthermore regarded not as an upgrade, but as an insurance policy and depth addition. That actually tells us a lot of what they feel, and I doubt anything has changed in the last two months. To reiterate: in trading Jose Iglesias, they made an absolute and total commitment to Xander Bogaerts at SS, and we know this to be true. The only two possible rationales for that trade were a) they were selling high on a guy they didn't think would be an above-average MLB SS, or b) no matter how good Iglesias could reasonably be, they couldn't see any scenario where they'd end up better with him at SS and Bogaerts at 3B. Well, I talked to Tom Tippett a week after the trade, and the answer was b. That's just, like, your opinion, man.
Seriously, I don't get your obsession with reading so much into the Iglesias trade. Maybe the plan was to put Bogaerts at shortstop. And maybe Drew's price is lower than expected, WMB's trade value is higher than expected, and they change their plan. Just because there's a plan doesn't mean the plan can never be changed. If the Angels offered Trout for Bogaerts, all the Sox's plans would change in a hurry.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Dec 10, 2013 16:23:16 GMT -5
They aren't going to sign Drew to a multi-year multi-million-dollar contract to have him platoon with Middlebrooks. And Middlebrooks isn't going to block Cecchini in AAA and isn't going to sit on the bench rotting away. As I've said 100 times, signing Drew goes hand in hand with trading WMB. In fact, I bet Drew doesn't even sign before the trade is made. Who would they trade WMB for? His value isn't that high right now. Doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to me.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 10, 2013 16:25:44 GMT -5
You wouldn't have thought that Mike Trumbo's trade value was that high, either.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 10, 2013 16:30:15 GMT -5
And Middlebrooks isn't going to block Cecchini in AAA and isn't going to sit on the bench rotting away. As I've said 100 times, signing Drew goes hand in hand with trading WMB. In fact, I bet Drew doesn't even sign before the trade is made. Who would they trade WMB for? His value isn't that high right now. Doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to me. No idea. It doesn't make much sense to me either.
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Post by mainesox on Dec 10, 2013 16:32:55 GMT -5
And Middlebrooks isn't going to block Cecchini in AAA and isn't going to sit on the bench rotting away. As I've said 100 times, signing Drew goes hand in hand with trading WMB. In fact, I bet Drew doesn't even sign before the trade is made. Who would they trade WMB for? His value isn't that high right now. Doesn't seem to make a lot of sense to me. You could always stick him back in AAA instead. Or I guess you could trade him to Oakland for a closer...
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 10, 2013 16:34:01 GMT -5
Trumbo's OBP was 23 points higher than Middlebrooks' though. For the sake of comparison, Trumbo's OBP was 25 points below league average. So Middlebrooks was so bad last year that he was a full Mark Trumbo worse than Mark Trumbo. For the record, I don't expect Drew back and I don't expect Middlebrooks to be traded. I just think it's possible.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 10, 2013 16:34:30 GMT -5
Trumbo's OBP was 23 points higher than Middlebrooks' though. For the sake of comparison, Trumbo's OBP was 25 points below league average. So Middlebrooks was so bad last year that he was a full Mark Trumbo worse than Mark Trumbo. Middlebrooks was also down 50 points from 2012. Given his super low BAPIP they're probably not far off, though the GMs interested in HR/RBI probably don't care too much about BAPIP (or even OBP). Steamer and Oliver have Middlebrooks at .308 and .304 next year which is almost identical to what they project for Trumbo (.307 and .309).
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 10, 2013 19:07:15 GMT -5
Here's a hypothetical under the cap 25 with Drew:
Pierzynski Ross Napoli Pedroia Drew Bogaerts Middlebrooks Nava Bradley Victorino Carp or Gomes Ortiz QBerry Lester Buccholz Peavy Lackey Doubront Uehara Mujica Del La Rosa or Workman Breslow Tazawa Miller Badenhop
Traded for prospects, 25 man clearance, and salary room: Dempster, Villarreal, Morales as well as one of Gomes or Carp.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 10, 2013 19:20:37 GMT -5
In the above 25 man, a few things.
First Drew and Ortiz shouldn't face many lefties which in turn would yield a reasonable amount of at bats for everybody.
Second, the Sox would have to be comfortable that Xander could handle being switched between two positions.
Third, Farrell would need to be comfortable with late inning pinch hitting and using the speed guy as a pinch runner.
Fourth, the Sox would either need to have a John McDonald type at Pawtucket or give Marrero some second base time (which is already at a premium in Portland).
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Dec 10, 2013 20:21:52 GMT -5
re the hypothetical under the cap 25: I like this team, except I would keep Carp and not Berry. I don't know what that does to the cap. If there is a problem, I would look to trade Peavy at some point. I don't believe the cap is counted until after the season, is it?
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Post by Guidas on Dec 10, 2013 22:13:45 GMT -5
I think Berry is first man DFA'd if they need 40 man space and no trade avail.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Dec 10, 2013 22:16:38 GMT -5
I think Berry is first man DFA'd if they need 40 man space and no trade avail. I think Quinton Berry is already a free agent and not a part of the 2014 Red Sox.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Dec 10, 2013 22:33:17 GMT -5
re the hypothetical under the cap 25: I like this team, except I would keep Carp and not Berry. I don't know what that does to the cap. If there is a problem, I would look to trade Peavy at some point. I don't believe the cap is counted until after the season, is it? Remembering that this is a Drew thread, I thought out the lineup to generally point out that WBM is not only not necessarily gone if we sign Drew but could actually also be heavily used. In this scenario, QBerry's addition accomplishes three things. 1st his speed as an in-game substitute weapon is obvious. 2nd he would be CF insurance for a team that is LF heavy 3rd, the more you use him, the more playing time others get since he would be unlikely to stay in the game and with that bench he could be used earlier in games as well. I would actually prefer to keep Carp because I think his upside his far greater and trade Gomes but Carp will bring us a far better prospect in return. So there's a trade off there in my mind. I think the decider there for me was viewing the collective LFers, Nava, Carp and Gomes. Carp is Nava light and therefore a degree of over duplication which I think outweighs the advantage of his position flexibility. Gomes is the better platooner. ADD Berry is a free agent and Davis already signed with the Tigers. ADD2: The off season salary totals are not a factor in the salary cap computations. ADD3: I went with Peavy over Dempster because I think he is the better pitcher but both are similarly situated. Decent pitchers, small risk contract, likely to return a draft pick after 2014, The prospects returned could hypothetically vault us past the Twins for best farm system. Either would bring us the salary cap room to sign Drew.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2013 9:09:26 GMT -5
Berry is not a major league player in a day of 12-13 man pitching staffs, especially on a team that has a full-time DH that can't/shouldn't play in the field.
Also, who plays 2nd if Pedey can't for a couple games? A warm body?
It's not logical to bounce Xander back and forth between SS and 3B and have a three-way platoon. Make him comfortable and make him know his role. Pretty much the same goes for WMB because bouncing him around isn't going to do him any favors. And there's no way to reward him if he's on a hot streak.
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 11, 2013 9:22:59 GMT -5
Berry is not a major league player in a day of 12-13 man pitching staffs, especially on a team that has a full-time DH that can't/shouldn't play in the field. Also, who plays 2nd if Pedey can't for a couple games? A warm body? It's not logical to bounce Xander back and forth between SS and 3B and have a three-way platoon. Make him comfortable and make him know his role. Pretty much the same goes for WMB because bouncing him around isn't going to do him any favors. And there's no way to reward him if he's on a hot streak. WMB played some 2B last season...
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Post by hammerhead on Dec 11, 2013 9:23:18 GMT -5
I don't think this is exactly brain surgery. The Sox have the default offer on the table for Drew, 1 or 2 years at an AAV right around the QO. If Drew's market collapses or fails to materialize ie. the Met's don't want to pay, then Drew becomes a bargain for the Sox and it makes sense to bring him back. I think there is a certain prize that Drew is worth to Boston, if he can be had for that price they'll bring him back. I don't think Boston is actively chasing Drew and I don't think they will outbid anyone for his services, but if he falls into their lap they'd be happy to have him back. Drew is a good player, anytime you can get a good player at a good price you do it and worry about the roster later.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2013 9:26:24 GMT -5
I don't think this is exactly brain surgery. The Sox have the default offer on the table for Drew, 1 or 2 years at an AAV right around the QO. If Drew's market collapses or fails to materialize ie. the Met's don't want to pay, then Drew becomes a bargain for the Sox and it makes sense to bring him back. I think there is a certain prize that Drew is worth to Boston, if he can be had for that price they'll bring him back. I don't think Boston is actively chasing Drew and I don't think they will outbid anyone for his services, but if he falls into their lap they'd be happy to have him back. Drew is a good player, anytime you can get a good player at a good price you do it and worry about the roster later. And he's not going to fall into their lap. When was the last time Boras has failed his client besides never? Don't bother mentioning Varitek, because he was never willing to leave Boston.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2013 9:27:27 GMT -5
Berry is not a major league player in a day of 12-13 man pitching staffs, especially on a team that has a full-time DH that can't/shouldn't play in the field. Also, who plays 2nd if Pedey can't for a couple games? A warm body? It's not logical to bounce Xander back and forth between SS and 3B and have a three-way platoon. Make him comfortable and make him know his role. Pretty much the same goes for WMB because bouncing him around isn't going to do him any favors. And there's no way to reward him if he's on a hot streak. WMB played some 2B last season... Sounds like a great scenario after those 5 minutes of practice, just so we can keep a pinch runner on the bench who can't hit and isn't a good outfielder.
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Post by lonborgski on Dec 11, 2013 9:38:35 GMT -5
I think that's a good way to justify my feelings. I really can't pinpoint why I feel this way. I just believe the team values Drew more than Middlebrooks. . . . If they do sign Drew, his contract will reflect how the club feels about its prospects at short. To reply to both points at once ... being benched for Xander Bogarts doesn't mean they think you suck. It's like concluding that Tom Brady thought Bridget Moynahan was ugly.. . . Thought I had a new sig for a while, but naa . . .
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Post by Kevin Pereira on Dec 11, 2013 11:37:36 GMT -5
I think that's a good way to justify my feelings. I really can't pinpoint why I feel this way. I just believe the team values Drew more than Middlebrooks. I think Middlebrooks has gotten to that Josh Reddick point where the team starts to question if his approach is worth keeping or if it's best to survey its options, and -- as I said -- I think the best option is to sign Drew to a two or three year deal, move Bogaerts to third permanently, and ship Middlebrooks for some depth or package him for a first baseman or outfielder. In this scenario, I envision Cecchini moving to LF and Marrero taking the reigns at short at the end of Drew's contract. Admittedly, Marrero might be ready before three years, but you never know. If they do sign Drew, his contract will reflect how the club feels about its prospects at short. To reply to both points at once ... being benched for Xander Bogarts doesn't mean they think you suck. It's like concluding that Tom Brady thought Bridget Moynahan was ugly. Kevin, when do you think the Sox soured on WMB? Because when I talked to Tom Tippett about the Iglesias trade in early August, I didn't mention WMB, but he brought up how high the F.O. still was on him as part of why Iglesias was expendable. And then he hit .276 / .329 / .476 after his recall, which doesn't suck. Oh, and you really want to do Marrero -> Bogaerts -> Cecchini -> LF? Carl Yastrzemski, Jim Rice, Mike Greenwell, Manny Ramirez, Jason Bay ... Deven Marrero. Can you spot the outlier? You could get massive defensive upgrades at SS and 3B (which you're not going to get) and still lose on that exchange. Whoa, now you're twisting my words. When did I ever say the Red Sox think Middlebrooks sucks? All I said was I believe (emphasis on believe because I don't have any information from the front office) the Red Sox are starting to question whether Middlebrooks' approach is the best option for 2014 and beyond. We all know that Boston's philosophy is high OBP guys who take pitches. Well, under that philosophy, Bogaerts and Drew are the two best candidates. I can go over all the stats, but I frankly don't have the time -- nor the patience -- to do so, and if you have stats that say otherwise, by all means post them. If I remember correctly, Middlebrooks has a walk rate around 5% in his two seasons in Boston. Drew and Bogaerts can certainly top that, and the front office cherishes that. But by no means am I saying Middlebrooks sucks, no. I, too, am high on him. I brought up Josh Reddick. Remember his 2012 season? Yeah, Middlebrooks can have one like that, but he's a on-and-off type a guy, and I just don't think (again, my thoughts) the front office wants that anymore. And I won't care if they Red Sox don't re-sign Drew and stick with Middlebrooks. I like him as a player and person. I just don't think he's the ideal option under the club's philosophy.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2013 11:54:04 GMT -5
To reply to both points at once ... being benched for Xander Bogarts doesn't mean they think you suck. It's like concluding that Tom Brady thought Bridget Moynahan was ugly. Kevin, when do you think the Sox soured on WMB? Because when I talked to Tom Tippett about the Iglesias trade in early August, I didn't mention WMB, but he brought up how high the F.O. still was on him as part of why Iglesias was expendable. And then he hit .276 / .329 / .476 after his recall, which doesn't suck. Oh, and you really want to do Marrero -> Bogaerts -> Cecchini -> LF? Carl Yastrzemski, Jim Rice, Mike Greenwell, Manny Ramirez, Jason Bay ... Deven Marrero. Can you spot the outlier? You could get massive defensive upgrades at SS and 3B (which you're not going to get) and still lose on that exchange. Whoa, now you're twisting my words. When did I ever say the Red Sox think Middlebrooks sucks? All I said was I believe (emphasis on believe because I don't have any information from the front office) the Red Sox are starting to question whether Middlebrooks' approach is the best option for 2014 and beyond. We all know that Boston's philosophy is high OBP guys who take pitches. Well, under that philosophy, Bogaerts and Drew are the two best candidates. I can go over all the stats, but I frankly don't have the time -- nor the patience -- to do so, and if you have stats that say otherwise, by all means post them. If I remember correctly, Middlebrooks has a walk rate around 5% in his two seasons in Boston. Drew and Bogaerts can certainly top that, and the front office cherishes that. But by no means am I saying Middlebrooks sucks, no. I, too, am high on him. I brought up Josh Reddick. Remember his 2012 season? Yeah, Middlebrooks can have one like that, but he's a on-and-off type a guy, and I just don't think (again, my thoughts) the front office wants that anymore. And I won't care if they Red Sox don't re-sign Drew and stick with Middlebrooks. I like him as a player and person. I just don't think he's the ideal option under the club's philosophy. The thing with WMB is that a bump of his BAPIP to his career average would likely make him an above MLB-average hitting third baseman. Third basemen seem to be rarer than shortstops these days. Because of this, it's worth keeping him around until they have a better idea of Cecchini. If WMB rebounds and Cecchini forces their hand, WMB's trade value will be way higher than it is now - especially after seeing the Angels overpay for Freese and seeing how much they got for a similar hitter in Trumbo. Because Boegarts is assuredly a better 3b than WMB doesn't seem to be a good enough reason to permanently move him there. That's really the only option the Sox have right now.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,966
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Post by jimoh on Dec 11, 2013 11:58:59 GMT -5
Berry is not a major league player in a day of 12-13 man pitching staffs, especially on a team that has a full-time DH that can't/shouldn't play in the field. Also, who plays 2nd if Pedey can't for a couple games? A warm body? ... I'd like Berry as the backup to the backup CF--i.e. the CF in Rhode Island who comes up and sits on the bench for a few days if someone is on the DL.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 11, 2013 12:01:07 GMT -5
Berry is not a major league player in a day of 12-13 man pitching staffs, especially on a team that has a full-time DH that can't/shouldn't play in the field. Also, who plays 2nd if Pedey can't for a couple games? A warm body? ... I'd like Berry as the backup to the backup CF--i.e. the CF in Rhode Island who comes up and sits on the bench for a few days if someone is on the DL. Yeah, fine with me if he even has options left which I kinda doubt. And then he'd have value in September with expanded rosters if there's a 40-man spot left for him. But Castellones is probably ok too.
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Post by jmei on Dec 11, 2013 12:06:56 GMT -5
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