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Post by jmei on Apr 9, 2014 10:13:38 GMT -5
I don't think it's impossible that Drew signs elsewhere, but you'd have to think it's way more likely than not that he doesn't sign before the draft, right?
I mean, lot of things have to come together for it to make sense for a team to sign him before the draft. There would have to be (a) a significant (season-ending?) injury to a shortstop (b) on a team in playoff contention (c) that has enough salary room to afford Drew (d) that is willing to give up a pick (e) that has no adequate internal backup options and (f) that happens soon enough that it makes sense to sign him right away as opposed to waiting after the draft. All that converging together seems pretty unlikely.
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Post by amfox1 on Apr 9, 2014 10:42:36 GMT -5
and (g) at a price that makes sense.
Yunel Escobar getting a two-year extension for $13mm seems to set the market for Drew better than Peralta's 4/$52mm deal.
Every day that goes by is less money for Drew. He's already lost 5% of the season (9/183).
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 9, 2014 11:23:16 GMT -5
Again, I bet he ends up with a deal above 3 years and $39 mil. It is the most likely scenario ending this. Let's make it interesting, then. I bet you that Drew will not sign a deal guaranteeing him $39m or more this season. Winner gets to set the loser's avatar for the offseason. Deal? I just saw this today. Does it matter that I wouldn't give Drew over 3 years and $39 mil? I don't mind betting in general but the probabilities are close to 50/50 and I can only imagine how painful the avatar would be! I think I'll pass this time. Edit: You mentioned a lot of variables on the Drew situation. Another is that a lot of teams don't need attendance much any more to meet payroll. They don't have to put a top team on the field. Revenue sharing makes them profitable anyway. If Drew does sign for over $39 mil I bet it's a 3.5 year deal and just after the draft.
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Post by jmei on Apr 9, 2014 11:28:47 GMT -5
Haha, I probably would have just chosen a Harvard crest or something. I'm less mean-spirited than I come off sometimes, I swear!
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 13, 2014 15:13:47 GMT -5
Scott Boras, the agent for unsigned free agents Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales, claims his clients have been "damaged" by comments from the anonymous executives quoted in a recent ESPN story, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Boras' remarks come two days after the MLBPA requested the Commissioner's Office to investigate those comments made to ESPN's Buster Olney, which appeared in a column he penned Wednesday.
Boras also warns, "The integrity of the game is challenged when players of this stature have yet to have a negotiation due to the system."
This is starting to get really bad.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 13, 2014 15:29:13 GMT -5
Haha, I probably would have just chosen a Harvard crest or something. I'm less mean-spirited than I come off sometimes, I swear! It was tempting. No question. And I wouldn't have been mean either. Maybe next time. I like to bet on winners! 50/50 is not good enough for me. My dad was a horse racing addict. I got $20 help going to college. I don't bet unless I think the odds are clearly in my favor. It's a family history thing. But if I think the odds are clearly in my favor I don't mind the risk! It's all in good fun.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Apr 13, 2014 23:17:04 GMT -5
Scott Boras, the agent for unsigned free agents Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales, claims his clients have been "damaged" by comments from the anonymous executives quoted in a recent ESPN story, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Boras' remarks come two days after the MLBPA requested the Commissioner's Office to investigate those comments made to ESPN's Buster Olney, which appeared in a column he penned Wednesday. Boras also warns, "The integrity of the game is challenged when players of this stature have yet to have a negotiation due to the system." This is starting to get really bad. Boras should quit whining. All his players had to do was to accept a very generous one year offer. He misread the market. It's his fault and the players' fault for listening to bad advice. Too bad the Sox won't be collecting a draft pick for Drew. Too bad for Drew that he didn't accept the Sox' offer. He regrets it. As it turned out he'd be playing SS for them right now. With the injuries to Pedroia and WMB there would have been enough room for him on the roster. Bad move Stephen Drew and Scott Boras.
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dd
Veteran
Posts: 979
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Post by dd on Apr 14, 2014 10:01:19 GMT -5
Seems to me that the guy whose market value may have diminished in all this is Scott Boras.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 14, 2014 10:44:40 GMT -5
Scott Boras, the agent for unsigned free agents Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales, claims his clients have been "damaged" by comments from the anonymous executives quoted in a recent ESPN story, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Boras' remarks come two days after the MLBPA requested the Commissioner's Office to investigate those comments made to ESPN's Buster Olney, which appeared in a column he penned Wednesday. Boras also warns, "The integrity of the game is challenged when players of this stature have yet to have a negotiation due to the system."
This is starting to get really bad. Ahhhhh.....wait a minute hasn't Boras periodically been saying he has this offer or that for Drew. Others above referred to some of his statements. So which is it Mr. Boras? Just whose integrity is being challenged?...not that your name has ever been associated with that quality. Hopefully Pedey is not seriously hurt or our chances go way down. But, if so, Stephen come on back for a pro-rated pillow.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 14, 2014 10:54:20 GMT -5
I can't tell who is black-balling who. Part of me thinks it's collusion to not give the Red Sox another comp pick.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 14, 2014 11:26:23 GMT -5
Scott Boras, the agent for unsigned free agents Stephen Drew and Kendrys Morales, claims his clients have been "damaged" by comments from the anonymous executives quoted in a recent ESPN story, reports Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. Boras' remarks come two days after the MLBPA requested the Commissioner's Office to investigate those comments made to ESPN's Buster Olney, which appeared in a column he penned Wednesday. Boras also warns, "The integrity of the game is challenged when players of this stature have yet to have a negotiation due to the system." This is starting to get really bad. Boras should quit whining. All his players had to do was to accept a very generous one year offer. He misread the market. It's his fault and the players' fault for listening to bad advice. Too bad the Sox won't be collecting a draft pick for Drew. Too bad for Drew that he didn't accept the Sox' offer. He regrets it. As it turned out he'd be playing SS for them right now. With the injuries to Pedroia and WMB there would have been enough room for him on the roster. Bad move Stephen Drew and Scott Boras. It's the players who collective bargained the QO and it's been every player who's rejected it. I don't know whether it is fair to the players, but Boras statements are total sour grapes. Front offices got smarter because this guy was great for his clients. File it under Unintended Consequences and move on.
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Post by amfox1 on Apr 14, 2014 14:55:44 GMT -5
The best analysis I've seen of the situation is Drew will sign almost immediately after the draft (let's say June 9th) for $3-6mm base salary, plus incentives. The expectation is that he will need three weeks in the minors to prepare in order to be ready to play at the major league level by July 1st.
The most likely reason to not wait longer than that is, by mid-June, the number of teams willing to acquire a player like Drew (buyers) will begin to shrink and the number of teams willing to trade players (sellers) will begin to increase.
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Post by jmei on Apr 14, 2014 18:59:15 GMT -5
Moved a bunch of Boras/baseball economics posts to its own thread in the Off-Topic Forum. Let's keep this one focused on whether the Red Sox should sign Drew. Thanks.
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Post by taftreign on Apr 14, 2014 21:01:17 GMT -5
I can't tell who is black-balling who. Part of me thinks it's collusion to not give the Red Sox another comp pick. I'm not so sure in regards to Detroit and the Mets but I have thought this for awhile as to why the Yankees seem so adamant despite an obvious need.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Apr 14, 2014 21:28:21 GMT -5
I can't tell who is black-balling who. Part of me thinks it's collusion to not give the Red Sox another comp pick. Starting to think baseball is gaslighting me somehow.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 19, 2014 9:19:02 GMT -5
Could Drew sign a minor league deal with area with a major league salary if he gets promoted, start playing in the minors then get calked up after the draft without the signing team having to give up a pick?
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 19, 2014 10:58:19 GMT -5
Drew did a 1 year deal last year and he had a decent year. The man just wants to get his big long term contract, you know, the one all good players generally get at least once in their career. The time for that is now. He knows that now is his best shot. He has been waiting for that contract a long time.
It may be that he overestimates his value but all this has been quantified to death. The market for player of WAR value X = ...etc. He and Scott know what he is worth, within a reasonable range, and it seems to me that he and Boras still perceive the low end of that range is 3 years and $39 mil.
Then again Salty probably thought the same thing. If Drew had even gotten 2 or 3 more hits last playoffs he wouldn't be in this situation IMO. His player value didn't really go down that much except in GM's minds, which is what counts. It's always what have you done for me lately.
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Post by amfox1 on Apr 19, 2014 10:59:11 GMT -5
Could Drew sign a minor league deal with area with a major league salary if he gets promoted, start playing in the minors then get calked up after the draft without the signing team having to give up a pick? Yes, most likely with a 6/15 opt-out if not called up. The likelihood, however, is that Drew would only need about three weeks of minor league action, so it's most likely that he would sign such a contract in mid-to-late May. This would likely pass scrutiny with the MLB, although it sucks for us (but no one should be thinking that we'll get the draft pick at this time). I think that he won't sign a minor league deal but will sign a major league deal right after the draft, go to the minors for three weeks and be called up on or about July 1.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 19, 2014 11:01:27 GMT -5
Drew did a 1 year deal last year and he had a decent year. The man just wants to get his big long term contract, you know, the one all good players generally get at least once in their career. The time for that is now. He knows that now is his best shot. He has been waiting for that contract a long time. It may be that he overestimates his value but all this has been quantified to death. The market for player of WAR value X = ...etc. He and Scott know what he is worth, within a reasonable range, and it seems to me that he and Boras still perceive the low end of that range is 3 years and $39 mil. Then again Salty probably thought the same thing. If Drew had even gotten 2 or 3 more hits last playoffs he wouldn't be in this situation IMO. His player value didn't really go down that much except in GM's minds, which is what counts. It's always what have you done for me lately. How many years would you commit to a player who has played 86, 79 and 124 games in his last 3 seasons?
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 19, 2014 11:46:26 GMT -5
I would have to check my file of SS players with ankles almost broken in half. It may take a while to find another.
I wouldn't pay Drew 3 years and $39 mil. I didn't even want him for $5 mil this year on the Redsox, because of several factors I just posted on the Orioles series thread a few minutes ago ( I won't repeat them here ) but some team could well think he is worth that if his numbers indicate it. And I'm pretty sure Boras has a guy on staff who can do the math.
It may well be that Boras botched this up. Sometimes he does over value a player and by the way, sometimes a player can overvalue himself and be driving the crazy train solo, but I think the numbers probably indicate at least a 3 year deal at $39 mil. Look at what Peralta got, as a PED user. That is a pretty good definition of the market right there.
With the flood of new money into the system and the dearth of good SS options, it would seem that some team SHOULD want Drew at that level. If he was asking for that 3 months ago he would have been signed in a heartbeat but that boat has floated. Now he is in his current situation. My bet though is that he still holds out for that $39 mil! ( If I wasn't so gutless as to pass on jmei's generous offer! ). Now is his opportunity for a long term deal.
The only question to me is will any team want to do a long term deal at mid season. A lot of teams probably do have a set budget and this may preclude them from anything more than an exigent 1/2 year deal. Drew may have to take a 1/2 year deal and see what happens next winter.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 19, 2014 12:34:00 GMT -5
Peralta's BABip was 50 points higher last year than it had been in his last 7 years of PT before that, and he got 4 years and $53 mil, guaranteed. I would think the PED use would have helped his numbers some and he doesn't sustain those numbers with this year's increased testing. But Drew can't get 3 years and $39 mil clean. If I were Drew I'd hold out all year if necessary.
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Post by grandsalami on Apr 20, 2014 10:45:24 GMT -5
“@beckjason: Gonzalez released. Worth's contract purchased.”
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Post by urgent on Apr 20, 2014 19:51:01 GMT -5
Seems to me that the guy whose market value may have diminished in all this is Scott Boras. From Boras's point of view, this is smart. If he is the player, he cannot recover from losing a year of pay. If he is the agent, and has a portfolio of players, he is smart to hold out for a much higher price. He will only know if the price is right at the margin if there are some players who cannot get signed at that price. If he has 20 players, and he charges a hypothetical 10% premium above current market on each of them, and one doesn't get signed, he is better off. If all his players get snapped up, he's probably leaving some money on the table. By pursuing such a strategy, he can still point out to potential clients that his players get a premium over the current market. Of course, 1 in 20 doesn't get signed. But are you that bottom 5%? I don't think you are.
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Post by jmei on Apr 28, 2014 15:18:28 GMT -5
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Post by stevedillard on Apr 28, 2014 15:52:29 GMT -5
I've stopped worrying about Drew, either signing with the Sox, or elsewhere where it matters in time for the pick.
The only way he becomes relevant is if Ben makes a quick decision that Bogaerts is not a SS, which is not his style. If he did make that decision, and also felt a need to address an immediate need, I could see trading Middlebrooks for an OF, moving Bogaerts to 3B permanently, and signing Drew for 2 years as a suitable Victorino type gap filler to their internal options. I don't see Ben making such a drastic move unless the offer is too good to pass up (Stanton for WMB and Ball?)
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