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Potential Free Agent Starter for Next Year?
steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 17, 2012 17:07:39 GMT -5
So we all agree we need, at least, one starting pitcher for next season (and probably more). I still believe we will be doing more trading than signing free agents....especially with this year's list.
But, I think it is quite possible we sign one of these 7 starters. I'm sure length of contract will be extremely important as will the dollars.
Edwin Jackson - age 29 next season - whip of 2012 - 1.20 Hiroki Kuroda - 38 - whip 1.12 Francisco Liriano - 29 - whip 1.46 Kyle Lohse - 34 - whip 1.09 Shaun Marcum -31 - whip 1.28 Brandon McCarthy - 29 - whip 1.25 Carlos Villanueva -29 - whip 1.19
Like to hear from you all about each candidate and if they are worthy of a position on our 25-man next year. I like each player somewhat, but am not blown away by any. I just feel we need to greatly improve our depth for 2013. Let me have it guys and gals. I personally like Marcum and McCarthy.
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Post by dmaineah on Sept 17, 2012 17:15:17 GMT -5
Pass on every name on that list. We already have 4 SP next year and plenty of options for a 5th. I agree we need to trade for SP but it needs to be for young SP in the 20-24 year old range.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 17, 2012 17:24:42 GMT -5
Pass on every name on that list. We already have 4 SP next year and plenty of optionng Rubby s for a 5th. I agree we need to trade for SP but it needs to be for young SP in the 20-24 year old range. In a perfect scenario, dmaineah, I would love to do exactly as you said, but I think we still may have to sign, at least, one F.A. starter also. I'm hoping Rubby De La Rosa is ready next spring and I still have a crush on Justin Masterson, but I'm not sure we won't have to consider both avenues.
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Post by jmei on Sept 17, 2012 18:26:16 GMT -5
I might sign Liriano to a Beltre-like contract (one year at a good base salary plus a team option) to see if he can improve his control and get back to his 2010 self. McCarthy is decent but is more a mid-rotation starter (4.24 xFIP, 3.24 ERA) and will be overpaid by someone impressed by the ERA. None of the rest really excite me, although Marcum and Jackson are solid mid-rotation starters who can be decent bets if you can get them on a reasonable contract (something like 4 years, $40-50m).
Honestly, the offense might need more work than the pitching next year. The only position players who project to give you above-average offense are Ellsbury, Pedroia, and (maybe) Middlebrooks. They'll probably re-sign Ortiz, but I'm wary of overpaying for Ross and none of the 1B/SS/C free agent options are appealing.
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Post by mredsox89 on Sept 17, 2012 20:01:12 GMT -5
They have to hope they get a better season from Lester. If they can get the 08-10 version of Lester, they have that #1 guy. Hope Buchholz fills that #2 spot, and the two of them combine for around a WAR of 8. Hope Doubront can build on this season, and at the very least pitch effectively for the 1st half.
In reality, Lackey could very well be better than any of the potential FA pitchers. Guy has something to prove and had 9 2+ WAR seasons prior to getting to Boston. All he has to do is be an innings eater in the middle of the rotation, keep the ERA under 4.50 and give them a chance to win. Then you have a bunch of other guys to plug holes/fill the 5 spot. The SP core should still be better than most in the league.
Offense is a big ?. C, 2B, 3B, DH, and 1 OF spot are fairly secure, but there are holes everywhere else. Overpaying ross for 2-3 years doesn't really cripple you given the financial flexibility and the doubt that they are going to be spending big $ on anyone next year given the FA crop. They have options at SS in Iglesias and Aviles as well
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Post by elguapo on Sept 17, 2012 20:38:49 GMT -5
Zach Greinke 5x24 AND Hiroki Kuroda, who they should have signed this past year
We're back to trying to win next year, right?
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 17, 2012 20:56:04 GMT -5
Your premise, "We all agree we need at least one SP" is flawed. I, for one, disagree.
Lester, Buccholz, Lackey and Doubront will be in the rotation. The fifth starter could very well be Franklin Morales who pitched very well until his stint on the DL.
Then there's Rubby DeLa Rosa who was a top Dodger prospect acquired in the Punto Trade. Webster, as well, may show in ST that he deserves a spot.
There's no Halliday or Weaver in this year's FA class. So why spend their considerable cap money on a Greinke or Jackson when the solution could be cheaper and already in the organization?
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Post by elguapo on Sept 17, 2012 21:14:04 GMT -5
Your premise, "We all agree we need at least one SP" is flawed. I, for one, disagree. My premise is that the team needs a significant talent infusion - top level talent. We could always trade Doubront, say, for a young hitter.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 17, 2012 21:19:25 GMT -5
There's no Halliday or Weaver in this year's FA class. So why spend their considerable cap money on a Greinke or Jackson when the solution could be cheaper and already in the organization?Because you can't have too much pitching. Not that the Red Sox should break the bank or anything, but if the Red Sox can pick up (for example) Edwin Jackson on a reasonable contract, why not? It's not a question of if the Red Sox should sign Pitcher X, it's a question of what price they should be willing to pay. If Edwin Jackson wanted to sign a one dollar contract, would you tell him "no thanks, Franklin Morales might be good"?
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Post by jdb on Sept 17, 2012 21:23:59 GMT -5
Jackson only had one multi year offer last season and it was Pittsburg. I don't think any of those guys will get more than 3 years. Also like El Guapo said Doubront could be attractive to the small market teams.
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Post by dcri on Sept 17, 2012 21:41:01 GMT -5
The Sox need top talent. None on this list qualify. I think the Sox have to trade for a number 1 or 2 starter, preferably two of them.
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 17, 2012 22:48:00 GMT -5
Your premise, "We all agree we need at least one SP" is flawed. I, for one, disagree. My premise is that the team needs a significant talent infusion - top level talent. We could always trade Doubront, say, for a young hitter. You missed the point. If I disagree, how can "We all agree"? Messrs. Kuroda, Jackson, etc. are not "top level talent". The best SP on the free agent market is Zach Greinke. With his problems, I hardly consider him top level. Hernandez is top level, no question, but his price would be astronomical, even if her were available, which is doubtful.
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Post by elguapo on Sept 17, 2012 23:26:19 GMT -5
You missed the point. I skipped the "we all agree" premise and stated my own.
I concede that given their somewhat limited options it makes sense to give assets room to appreciate - plug Lackey in the rotation and hope he returns to form, give Morales and/or RUBBY full time starting gigs - "sell low" doesn't get this team where it needs to go. But I wouldn't count on that approach resulting in a winner next year.
I'm convinced individual fans have more anxiety about Greinke's mentality than Greinke does, and I don't see a lot of other places to spend their money.
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Post by mantush on Sept 18, 2012 0:30:05 GMT -5
I think we should invite a few players (don't know who; haven't bothered to check) to Spring Training and let them compete with our in-house options for the fifth starter role in exhibition. It's not a sexy alternative to trading for Felix Hernandez, but it is an option. The priority in the off-season should be filling the offensive holes. If we can field a team that can get on-base next year, then we can address the pitching staff at the trade deadline. I don't want to see this team going "all-in" when one player isn't going to drastically turn the organization around.
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Post by remember04 on Sept 18, 2012 3:49:33 GMT -5
I'll be shocked if we don't go after Liriano. McCarthy worries me since he got hit in the head. I don't want a Matt Clememnte 2.0 and he was never more than okay and he just a good time to have a good year. Jackson might be out there too. You do need at least 7-8 starters and I agree that Lackey could be our best "off season acquisition".
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Sept 18, 2012 7:14:46 GMT -5
I think Miami might be a trading partner. We might be able to do one of two things.
1. Trade for Josh Johnson. He's on the last year of his contract and makes 13.5m. They have to get somethiing for him. Would probably take Doubront and another pretty good prospect. Webster.
2. They might be inclined to get less of a return if we take Buehrle off of their hands. He signed 4yr/58m an AAV of 14.5. Only signed for 3 more years and that's what we want isn't it? Pitchers without long-term committments. The downside for ownership is he only got 7m this year and is owed 12m, 19m and 20m over the next 3years. AAV is still only 14.5 though. If we're truly trying to win next year, he might be the type of guy we try to get. By taking his contract, all they get for Johnson and Buehrle is Doubront. No prospects
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 18, 2012 7:36:04 GMT -5
For sure we need offensive improvement also. My feelings on the seven starters above was not to pretend that they are top-notch, ace material. They are definitely not, but I do think picking one of them up for 2 to 3 years may create the depth we need as we head toward adding guys like Webster, Barnes, and De La Rosa.
My "dream" is that our rotation in 2014 is those 3 kids plus Buch and Lester. Of course, that's in a perfect world. If we can pick up a pitcher like Josh Johnson for a Doubront plus a prospect or two, sign me up.
Now the offense is a different thread. We definitely have problems on that side as well.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 18, 2012 8:21:00 GMT -5
Edwin Jackson isn't a #1 starter, but that doesn't mean he wouldn't make the Red Sox pitching staff better. If the price is right, he should absolutely be in consideration.
The idea that the Red Sox should only be interested in signing "top level" talent is how they got into this mess in the first place. They went hard after high-priced elite talent, and neglected roster depth and doing the little things that make them incrementally better. Missing out on a pretty good pitcher who improves your ballclub because you're waiting for the next Pedro Martinez is a great way to be tied for last place.
Over the last four years, Jackson has averaged 200.0 IP, has an ERA+ of 107, and a K/BB of 2.46. He'd have been the BEST pitcher on the Red Sox this year - it's unlikely the Red Sox have four pitchers better than him next year, unless they pull off something very creative in a trade.
Of those other six, Kuroda and McCarthy are really the only ones I'd have serious interest in. I expect Kuroda to resign with the Yankees, and I think McCarthy ends up priced out of where the Red Sox would want him.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 18, 2012 9:54:42 GMT -5
Edwin Jackson isn't a #1 starter, but that doesn't mean he wouldn't make the Red Sox pitching staff better. If the price is right, he should absolutely be in consideration. The idea that the Red Sox should only be interested in signing "top level" talent is how they got into this mess in the first place. They went hard after high-priced elite talent, and neglected roster depth and doing the little things that make them incrementally better. Missing out on a pretty good pitcher who improves your ballclub because you're waiting for the next Pedro Martinez is a great way to be tied for last place. Over the last four years, Jackson has averaged 200.0 IP, has an ERA+ of 107, and a K/BB of 2.46. He'd have been the BEST pitcher on the Red Sox this year - it's unlikely the Red Sox have four pitchers better than him next year, unless they pull off something very creative in a trade. Of those other six, Kuroda and McCarthy are really the only ones I'd have serious interest in. I expect Kuroda to resign with the Yankees, and I think McCarthy ends up priced out of where the Red Sox would want him. Great points James. Can you and others tell me what you think of Marcum. Doesn't, so far, seem like anyone is high on him. Just wondering!
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 18, 2012 10:31:30 GMT -5
Marcum will be 31 on opening day, and has only surpassed 160 innings twice in his career. He had TJ surgery four years ago, and missed significant time this year due to an elbow problem, which doesn't bode well. He also gives up too many home runs, limiting his value. If he were to be available on February for a one-year deal I wouldn't have a problem slotting him in, but he's not a guy who I see as a smart risk. He doesn't have Jackson's durability or McCarthy's upside.
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Post by elguapo on Sept 18, 2012 10:42:00 GMT -5
The idea that the Red Sox should only be interested in signing "top level" talent is how they got into this mess in the first place. Last I checked the Sox have plenty of mediocre talent, at least in the starting rotation. I don't think they need more mediocre. One of my rules of thumb: am I confident X starter will be meaningfully better than the reanimated corpse of John Lackey?
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Post by vandysox on Sept 18, 2012 10:55:41 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 18, 2012 12:12:17 GMT -5
Last I checked the Sox have plenty of mediocre talent, at least in the starting rotation. I don't think they need more mediocre. That sort of underscores my point. They developed Lester and Buchholz, both who have underachieved this year. Doubront also came through the organization. Matsuzaka was signed as an elite talent, but wasn't (particularly in the last four years). Cook was a MLFA brought in as roster filler, in case he was needed. The Red Sox lost in 2011 because of their starting pitching. Instead of pursuing mid-range talent which could have made them better - Kuroda and Jackson, for example, both of whom would've been the best pitcher on the staff this year - they decided that their current crop was good enough. Edwin Jackson would make the Red Sox better. The response "he doesn't make them better enough" seems a little self-defeating to me. If he costs too much, or doesn't want to play here, or whatever else, that's fine, but it's always worth it to look into players who make the club better.
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Post by elguapo on Sept 18, 2012 13:44:07 GMT -5
[The Red Sox lost in 2011 because of their starting pitching. Instead of pursuing mid-range talent which could have made them better - Kuroda and Jackson, for example, both of whom would've been the best pitcher on the staff this year - they decided that their current crop was good enough. This is nonsense. Kuroda (who I wanted) or Jackson wouldn't have put the Sox into the playoffs. And they decided that the era of lux spending was over and it was time to pinch pennies, not that the current rotation was good enough. And they did in fact replace the worst 3 pitchers from the 2011 rotation. And if they WERE going to spend they should have gotten Yu Darvish.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 18, 2012 16:43:35 GMT -5
[The Red Sox lost in 2011 because of their starting pitching. Instead of pursuing mid-range talent which could have made them better - Kuroda and Jackson, for example, both of whom would've been the best pitcher on the staff this year - they decided that their current crop was good enough. This is nonsense. Kuroda (who I wanted) or Jackson wouldn't have put the Sox into the playoffs. And they decided that the era of lux spending was over and it was time to pinch pennies, not that the current rotation was good enough. And they did in fact replace the worst 3 pitchers from the 2011 rotation. And if they WERE going to spend they should have gotten Yu Darvish. None of that really explains why the Red Sox wouldn't be better off with Edwin Jackson on a 2-3 year deal.
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