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Potential Free Agent Starter for Next Year?
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Post by dcb26 on Sept 18, 2012 19:12:29 GMT -5
None of that really explains why the Red Sox wouldn't be better off with Edwin Jackson on a 2-3 year deal. Yeah, I mean, getting a pitcher who's better than the best pitcher in your rotation is great, but getting a pitcher who's better than the worst pitcher in your rotation is still an upgrade.
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Post by buffs4444 on Sept 18, 2012 19:39:20 GMT -5
One of Haren/Greinke and then Jackson. Doubront/Morales in deal(s) for bats.
Signing FA starters (plural) seems like one of the best ways to address the talent issues this team has without gouging another hole in the farm.
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Post by elguapo on Sept 18, 2012 20:48:46 GMT -5
None of that really explains why the Red Sox wouldn't be better off with Edwin Jackson on a 2-3 year deal. I never argued that. It's nonsensical, a truism: every upgrade is an upgrade. I personally don't like Jackson but I suggested signing Kuroda (in addition to Greinke), who could be considered of similar quality. The question comes in when you consider limited resources (money & personnel) and the measure of success (building a WS contender). Spending $10M/yr on a 2.5 WAR starter (let's say) may be an upgrade but may not be the best upgrade you could make for $10M -- and this team has a long way to go and limited resources to get there. Every move has an opportunity cost.
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Post by jmei on Sept 18, 2012 20:56:01 GMT -5
The Red Sox have a great deal of salary space and there aren't any real blue chip free agents out there. How should that $10m be better spent? I'd rather have Edwin Jackson than Cody Ross, for instance.
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Post by elguapo on Sept 18, 2012 21:09:54 GMT -5
The Red Sox have a great deal of salary space and there aren't any real blue chip free agents out there. How should that $10m be better spent? See above. I don't think Ross is much of a pitcher.
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Post by soxfan06 on Sept 18, 2012 23:56:15 GMT -5
None of that really explains why the Red Sox wouldn't be better off with Edwin Jackson on a 2-3 year deal. I never argued that. It's nonsensical, a truism: every upgrade is an upgrade. I personally don't like Jackson but I suggested signing Kuroda (in addition to Greinke), who could be considered of similar quality. The question comes in when you consider limited resources (money & personnel) and the measure of success (building a WS contender). Spending $10M/yr on a 2.5 WAR starter (let's say) may be an upgrade but may not be the best upgrade you could make for $10M -- and this team has a long way to go and limited resources to get there. Every move has an opportunity cost. The Red Sox only have $45,638,000 committed to players next year. They have $132,362,000 they could spend before they reach the $178,000,000 luxury tax level. They have plenty of funds available. Maybe spending $10M on a pitcher like Edwin Jackson isn't the way BC coshes to go this offseason, but it certainly won't be because they can't afford him.
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Post by mainesox on Sept 19, 2012 0:18:16 GMT -5
Not that it changes your point that much, but that $45M doesn't include any of the arb or pre-arb players, so it's probably more like $80M that they have to spend.
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 19, 2012 7:05:44 GMT -5
I don't understand why so many are anxious to send Felix Doubront a packin'. Sure, I know you have to give something to get....yadda yadda.
But this kid, who was organization developed, is still only 24 yrs. old. Sure, he has holes in his delivery and approach, but, at an early age, there's time to overcome these deficiencies.
I remember John Farrell as pitching coach, being adamant about not moving Doubront when his name came up in trade talks. Kids got talent. And this was his first full year as a ML starter.
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Post by remember04 on Sept 19, 2012 7:11:24 GMT -5
I don't understand why so many are anxious to send Felix Doubront a packin'. Sure, I know you have to give something to get....yadda yadda. But this kid, who was organization developed, is still only 24 yrs. old. Sure, he has holes in his delivery and approach, but, at an early age, there's time to overcome these deficiencies. I remember John Farrell as pitching coach, being adamant about not moving Doubront when his name came up in trade talks. Kids got talent. And this was his first full year as a ML starter. My guess is people think he's peaked and his value will never be higher than it is right now.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 19, 2012 8:10:29 GMT -5
Doubront is exactly the type of guy many Sox fans would want to target if he were on another team. He is young, cost-effective, can top out at 96, has a decent change and curve. How many LH can you say that about in the majors? Like Lester he has control problems. He is a work in progress. I keep him as part of the solution.
As for free agent pitchers, I have always liked Jackson. Kuroda would be good too. But unless we give multiple years at big dollars i.e. significantly outbid (something managment has implied it would not do) can we pry either of those guys away from winning environments to come here where there is greater current uncertainty? Management has a nearly unique opportunity to use its many dollars much more wisely. I take it at its word that it will do so. Patience has its reward.
And, as for trades for pitching, who do we have that we would part with that is perceived at high value elsewhere? Maybe Ellsbury at the ML level..and our prospects are not only part of our solution too but management seems to be retreating to the 'build from within' mantra. And in any case, how many pitchers represent certainty of performance worth stripping us of Xander, Bradley, Brentz etc. Don't look now but we need young position players too.
I think that we will look for modest and perhaps short term price aquisitions in free agency pitching and elsewhere...overlooked players that we find value in ...return to the moneyball concept. In 2014 many of our good prospects will be ready to graduate.
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Post by elguapo on Sept 19, 2012 8:49:33 GMT -5
I don't understand why so many are anxious to send Felix Doubront a packin'. If you think he's a developing front of the rotation starter you keep him. My argument to consider trading him is if he can bring back a high value hitter. We have 5 starters under contract for next year, some good looking free agent options, plus De La Rosa ready & Webster and Barnes in line. By contrast, we have holes at LF/RF/1B/DH, a question at SS, a CF with one year left, and only JBJ / Brentz / X coming up.
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Post by patrmac04 on Sept 19, 2012 9:07:01 GMT -5
Zach Greinke 5x24 AND Hiroki Kuroda, who they should have signed this past year We're back to trying to win next year, right? I agree with this post strongly. Currently Greinke is playing for LA... they are a big market team and his numbers have not fallen off at all. He has an ERA under 4 and if there is one thing that this Red Sox team needs more than anything, it is a legit ace level starting pitcher. Greinke is the only stud who can come close to that level and is still in his 20's. All time ranking of pitchers on your list (that conveniently left Greinke off the list) according to baseball-reference #278. ZACK GREINKE (directly behind Bruce Hurst... one of the best Red Sox pitchers of my life) #911. EDWIN JACKSON #573. HIROKI KURODA #1015. FRANCISCO LIRIANO #684. KYLE LOHSE #633. SHAUN MARCUM #1014. BRANDON MCCARTHY Carlos Villanueva (not ranked) My third choice would be Lohse, but I am weary of signing players coming out of their career years in their mid 30's. To me it is an increased chance that they are using PED's to enhance their free agent contract. If people try to bring up Greinke's anxiety problems, I will bring up other players who have done well in Boston with quirky mental issues like Wade Boggs, Nomar, Bill Spaceman Lee. Keep in mind that we have already had hundreds of Red Sox players with social anxiety play for the team since it is the third most common psychological problem to have according to Wiki. I think he will become an instant fan favorite and he is the ONLY person on the free agent market who can sniff being an ace. Lohse is having an ace like year, but his career tells us that he is not an ace... maybe we sign him as a number 2. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_anxiety_disorder"The National Comorbidity Survey of over 8,000 American correspondents in 1994 revealed a 12-month and lifetime prevalence rate of 7.9 percent and 13.3 percent making it the third most prevalent psychiatric disorder after depression and alcohol dependence and the most apparent of the anxiety disorders" Fact of the matter is that our young starting pitching in the minors isn't that good. Felix Doubront is the only player we really have who is very young and has a strong possibility of helping us next year. We have a handful of guys that equate to throwing stuff against a wall to hope one pans out.... but we can't honestly expect to rely on the idea of a kid getting called up and being an anchor on this team. This team is anchor-less... we need an ace. We have no Shilling, Pedro, Felix, CC, Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Price, Kershaw, Weaver, Verlander, Peavy, Gonzalez, Zimmerman, Strausberg (Washington is stacked). We don't even have a solid number 2 guy. Kuroda has proven that he can be one of the better pitchers in baseball with the Yankees and we need that veteran number 2 presence. Lester is trying to talk his way out of town and is showing that he really doesn't want to be here anymore. Clay had such a bad first half of the season, one has to wonder if he has a drug and/or alcohol problem because it wasn't an injury. He was one of the worst pitchers in baseball for two months before turning it around. We have no consistency. Point being, if we are going to make a mistake with player choices... I would rather have that mistake be with the most talented players. The most talented player on the free agent market is Grienke, so you sign that player. IF the kids push the envelope and that is a big IF, then and only then you call them up when there is an injury to the starting rotation. You can't go into next season expecting Webster, De La Rosa, Stewart or any of the other kids to make a considerable contribution to the rotation because even the best prospects struggle out of the gates. Remember Lester, Clay, Hughes and umpteen million other can't miss prospects who couldn't handle the show right away? Well the guys I mentioned aren't even close to the three names I gave, so I hope people temper expectations. I pay a ton of money for my season tickets to the Red Sox and it is to pay for a competitive team. If I wanted season tickets to the Paw Sox then I would go down to Rhode Island for 5 bucks a ticket. If the Red Sox didn't insist on bending me over on ticket prices, then I wouldn't insist on the team being as competitive as possible with the best possible talent... they made their own bed and now I want to have an ace back on this bleeping team. *edit* (profanity and below) I just noticed that you are missing two key players in the free agency market.... #900. ANIBAL SANCHEZ and #193. COLE HAMELS I would think that if the Sox signed both Cole Hamels and Greinke that they are instant contenders again. Anibal would give you solid depth but he is certainly not an ace... but it sure would be nice to bring him back home to replace Beckett who he was traded for. **edit to the edit** I phased out and didn't notice that Cole signed an extension with Philly... next time I will check out Cot's first
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Post by patrmac04 on Sept 19, 2012 9:17:25 GMT -5
I'll be shocked if we don't go after Liriano. McCarthy worries me since he got hit in the head. I don't want a Matt Clememnte 2.0 and he was never more than okay and he just a good time to have a good year. Jackson might be out there too. You do need at least 7-8 starters and I agree that Lackey could be our best "off season acquisition". Liriano worries be... well because he sucks. He has had exactly one ace season in his second year in the majors with an ERA of 2.16 in 2006 when he was 26 years old. He has never thrown over 200 innings, his ERA has been over 5 in the past two seasons and three out of the past four.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 19, 2012 9:20:10 GMT -5
Wade Boggs? There's a big difference between social anxiety disorder and liking fried chicken, women, expensive cowboy boots, and Miller Lite. Wade Boggs might have had the least social anxiety of any human that ever played baseball, with the possible exception of Rickey Henderson.
That said, Greinke's social anxiety doesn't worry me half as much as his totally inconsistent pitching. Since his '09 Cy Young season, he has a 105 ERA+. And his problems with runners on base seem to be mechanical, as they're now on season #3. At one point last year, the Brewers had him throwing from the wind-up with runners on base, because his mechanics from the stretch were so out of whack. That would give me pause before bring a pitcher into the AL East for big money.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 19, 2012 9:25:24 GMT -5
patrmac, welcome to the board.
Just a quick point though - BR's "all-time ranking" is just a fun thing that is basically fan voting. It has no statistical or objective basis, and doesn't prove or disprove anything other than that more people know who Greinke is. You might as well point to jersey sales at that point.
Also, please refrain from using profanity here. Thanks.
EDIT: Also, thank you for being, I think, the first person in this thread to spell Greinke's first name right.
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Post by patrmac04 on Sept 19, 2012 9:33:05 GMT -5
Wade Boggs? There's a big difference between social anxiety disorder and liking fried chicken, women, expensive cowboy boots, and Miller Lite. Wade Boggs might have had the least social anxiety of any human that ever played baseball, with the possible exception of Rickey Henderson. That said, Greinke's social anxiety doesn't worry me half as much as his totally inconsistent pitching. Since his '09 Cy Young season, he has a 105 ERA+. And his problems with runners on base seem to be mechanical, as they're now on season #3. At one point last year, the Brewers had him throwing from the wind-up with runners on base, because his mechanics from the stretch were so out of whack. That would give me pause before bring a pitcher into the AL East for big money. What worries me is the totally inconsistent starting pitching of the Red Sox in general. Greinke certainly had an off year in 2010, but he pitched 220 innings and had better numbers than any of our current starting pitchers on the team right now in his worst year besides when he was 21 years old. At this point, I would be pumped to have that over the steaming pile of [terribleness] we have out there every night right now. As for worrying about giving him a big contract... don't. We just hit the reset button and if you do pay out big money, you do so for ace quality starting pitching. We are back in a position where we can make a little mistake here or there again with the Punto trade. Daisuke was a mistake, but an aggressive calculated mistake... but it still won us another world series. Beckett wasn't originally a mistake, but his second extension was. Go big or go home... this year the Sox are going home because they couldn't even dish out 10 mil for Kuroda and we salary dumped our cheap starting short stop. MOD EDIT: seriously, cut out the profanity.
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Post by patrmac04 on Sept 19, 2012 9:36:31 GMT -5
patrmac, welcome to the board. Just a quick point though - BR's "all-time ranking" is just a fun thing that is basically fan voting. It has no statistical or objective basis, and doesn't prove or disprove anything other than that more people know who Greinke is. You might as well point to jersey sales at that point. Also, please refrain from using profanity here. Thanks. EDIT: Also, thank you for being, I think, the first person in this thread to spell Greinke's first name right. Will do about the profanity... my bad. The all time rank is there to compare players with different ages and different service times to me. It is certainly not an empirical analysis. The main point is that we don't have an ace. Not only do we not have an ace, but we don't have a sub-ace or a 1a pitcher. We won a world series with Shilling and Pedro... then with Beckett and Shilling. Right now we have a bunch of number 3's and below. The free agent market is thin, but we don't have to give up prospects for the players. I would rather sign Greinke and Hamels than trade away the farm for King Felix right now. We just restocked the system and unless we make a blockbuster trade, Felix isn't walking through that door. **edit** Hamels signed an extension with Philly in season and I overlooked it... so it is Greinke as the only potential ace on the market... get it done Ben.
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Post by elguapo on Sept 19, 2012 9:52:06 GMT -5
EDIT: Also, thank you for being, I think, the first person in this thread to spell Greinke's first name right. Donald?
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sarcasmo
Rookie
Formerly known as mtomeo
Posts: 91
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Post by sarcasmo on Sept 19, 2012 10:29:35 GMT -5
I know we are trying to avoid the fan boy optimism, but I still don't understand the pressing need for an ace pitcher (I know the thread didn't start this way, but it seems to have headed there). Before this season, Lester was one of the top 5 LHP in all of baseball. 4 very consistent years. Why, after one statistical aberration are we suddenly feeling like he's no longer an ace?
Clay and Lackey are very good 2/3's. Clay has been very inconsistent in his career, but Lackey, prior to Boston was relatively consistent and 2/3 material that ate up a lot of innings.
Doubront, like most rookies had an inconsistent year. Looked very good initially, then faded a bit. It took Buchholz how many years to finally stick with the big club? He has never pitched this many innings in his career. I think we should have expected him to fade. Like others have said, he is young, cost controlled, and has a lot of promise. Ace material, no, but we only need him to be a 3/4/5. I agree with the poster who said these are the guys we should be trading for, not away. Unless we get a true middle of the order bat back in a trade for him, we need to keep Doubront.
In my opinion, like I believe the OP stated/implied, a middle of the rotation SP is what we need. A guy like Grienke would be a luxury. If we can afford him, take a run at him; otherwise stick to the mid-rotation guys that we can get at a better price. I don't think an ace is a must have.
Call me crazy, but as scary as it sounds, I'm really leaning towards using our funds on Hamilton at this point to [help] solidify the offense.
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Post by mainesox on Sept 19, 2012 11:51:29 GMT -5
I'd love to have Greinke on the Red Sox, and his anxiety disorder really isn't a concern in my opinion, but I think he'll get more money/years than the Red Sox should give any pitcher over the age of, say, 25.
Also, I don't know that I would really call Greinke inconsistent. His ERA has fluctuated quite a bit, but he's basically been between 3.00 and 3.50 FIP since converting back to a starter full time in '08 (he had a crazy low FIP in '09, so his one "inconsistent" year was especially good, not especially bad). He hasn't really been any more inconsistent than Sabathia (for example) over that period.
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Post by mainesox on Sept 19, 2012 11:55:25 GMT -5
Clay and Lackey are very good 2/3's. Clay has been very inconsistent in his career, but Lackey, prior to Boston was relatively consistent and 2/3 material that ate up a lot of innings. I don't think we can really expect Lackey to be anything more than an innings eating #4/5 pitcher at this point, especially not just back from TJ surgery. He may still be capable of pitching better than that, and if he does it'll be awesome, but I think it's setting yourself up for failure/disappointment if you expect it.
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Post by wannabgm on Sept 19, 2012 12:01:28 GMT -5
I've never understood why teams don't take more of an approach of cheaper short term deals and then trading the surplus it creates on your team to upgrade talent level. For example, why cant we sign marcum or Jackson etc to a 1 or 2 year deal at a slight overlay of their relative value (war vs salary), and then trade a current pitcher, a good depth prospect and maybe an extra depth piece to hopefully get back ab upgrade at the sp spot. If we built a package around doubrant, salty and Perkins for example, sign an sp to replace doubrant, what would be a reasonable package we coupd try to get in return if were targeting an SP that represents an upgrade over doubrant? These are the types of moves we can make w the space we have under the lux tax to take on short term overpays to get the fas we want, while using org depth to upgrade to proven young talent with some additional upside. The mets have a few top guys like wheeler (?) who come to mind, or could this format plus taking on contract get us garza.
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Post by James Dunne on Sept 19, 2012 12:13:15 GMT -5
I'd love to have Greinke on the Red Sox, and his anxiety disorder really isn't a concern in my opinion, but I think he'll get more money/years than the Red Sox should give any pitcher over the age of, say, 25. Also, I don't know that I would really call Greinke inconsistent. His ERA has fluctuated quite a bit, but he's basically been between 3.00 and 3.50 FIP since converting back to a starter full time in '08 (he had a crazy low FIP in '09, so his one "inconsistent" year was especially good, not especially bad). He hasn't really been any more inconsistent than Sabathia (for example) over that period. Part of my issue with Greinke is that I believe his under-performing of his FIP over the past three years is more than just bad luck - he's had major mechanical issues pitching out of the stretch. This leads to disproportionately poor numbers with runners on base, which, in turn leads to an ERA that doesn't align with FIP/SIERA or whatever advanced metric you prefer. His peripheral stats have stayed fairly consistent, yes - which makes the underlying performance all the more maddening. Often, ineffectiveness with runners on base is simple bad luck - I believe that to be the case with Lester this year, for example. With Greinke though, I'm worried that it's more indicative of a serious flaw that he hasn't been able to correct. The upside to correcting it is huge, yes, but at what price? If other teams are scared off, he'd be worth a look, but at over $100M I don't know if it's worth finding out. I should also point out that I think this is a physical, rather than a mental problem. I agree that his social anxiety disorder shouldn't be a red light.
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Post by dmaineah on Sept 19, 2012 12:23:19 GMT -5
The Rotation next year is going to be;
1)Buchholz 2)Lester 3)Lackey 4)Doubront
The 5th Starting Pitcher will come from;
Stewart, Pimentel, Britton
Or someone added to the 40 Man Roster like;
Wright, Webster, De La Rosa
I would also expect the Sox to sign a few reclamation projects to a minor league deal to compete during spring training like they did with Cook, Germano & Ohlendorf this past year.
No way will they trade Doubront a 24 year old Left Handed Starting Pitcher under their control.
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Post by patrmac04 on Sept 19, 2012 12:28:50 GMT -5
I know we are trying to avoid the fan boy optimism, but I still don't understand the pressing need for an ace pitcher (I know the thread didn't start this way, but it seems to have headed there). Before this season, Lester was one of the top 5 LHP in all of baseball. 4 very consistent years. Why, after one statistical aberration are we suddenly feeling like he's no longer an ace? Clay and Lackey are very good 2/3's. Clay has been very inconsistent in his career, but Lackey, prior to Boston was relatively consistent and 2/3 material that ate up a lot of innings. Doubront, like most rookies had an inconsistent year. Looked very good initially, then faded a bit. It took Buchholz how many years to finally stick with the big club? He has never pitched this many innings in his career. I think we should have expected him to fade. Like others have said, he is young, cost controlled, and has a lot of promise. Ace material, no, but we only need him to be a 3/4/5. I agree with the poster who said these are the guys we should be trading for, not away. Unless we get a true middle of the order bat back in a trade for him, we need to keep Doubront. In my opinion, like I believe the OP stated/implied, a middle of the rotation SP is what we need. A guy like Grienke would be a luxury. If we can afford him, take a run at him; otherwise stick to the mid-rotation guys that we can get at a better price. I don't think an ace is a must have. Call me crazy, but as scary as it sounds, I'm really leaning towards using our funds on Hamilton at this point to [help] solidify the offense. OK... I will bite. I think you are crazy if you want Hamilton over Greinke. The reason being that the Red Sox are currently ranked 8th in hitting but are 25th in pitching. The team lost this year because of lack of pitching depth as well as quality starting pitching, not because of our hitting. I think the Red Sox have consistently been able to find reasonably priced players augmented with stars to give a solid lineup or a top lineup in most years since Henry and company took over. The part of baseball that is the hardest thing to develop and acquire is top level starting pitching or an ace. Money ball plays better with hitters IMO than pitchers with the Red Sox past. There have been too many Wade Miller's, Kyle Snyder's and Jason Johnson's to feel otherwise. I agree that the team can't just have an ace and be automatic favorites in the division. There are many teams that don't do well with just an ace. We need a balanced rotation to make that happen. That being said, it wasn't until we brought in two legit ace level pitchers with Shilling to go with Pedro to have the one two punch needed to go far the distance in the post season. We did it again with Beckett and Shilling. Hamilton is different than Greinke because one has a substance abuse problem to go along with injury concerns and the other has an anxiety disorder but has been a work horse. I have known enough people in my life who have gotten substance abuse under control to know that it is a problem that will never go away and you can slip at any time. Hamilton relapsed in a very public way in February and that wasn't the first publicly known relapse as it happened in 2009 as well. Be assured that for every time we hear about a relapse that there are a number of times where it remained silent. I also know enough people with anxiety disorders to know that it is a much more manageable affliction where I believe that Greinke would be able to be successful in Boston. I also believe that this town seems to like quirky people, so I can see him being a fan favorite. I think it is the opposite of what you are suggesting. I feel that we need to focus on our biggest weakness... starting rotation and if we can afford it then we go after the big bat.
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