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Potential Free Agent Starter for Next Year?
nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 27, 2012 13:58:18 GMT -5
Choosing between Peavy and Haren is tough. Peavy: Was healthy this year and had better numbers, but would be more expensive and want 2/3 years Haren: Back problems, but has been very good up to this year. Also could be had on a pillow contract, like a pitchers version of the Beltre signing. Hopefully we land one of these guys. Maybe 1/$9M with a mutual/vesting option for 2014? Spitballing Keep in mind that I don't think we contend next but we do the year after. That out of the way this is what I'm looking for. I admit the only thing I'm looking for this off season is young long term solutions or in this case filler that could possibly net us a future draft pick. Agreed. Almost zero chance of competing next year, long term building blocks are the way to go. Haren would be great on a one year deal if he could get us a compensation pick the following year though.
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Post by jmei on Sept 27, 2012 13:59:46 GMT -5
Keep in mind that Peavy almost certainly will be offered the $12m one-year contract and cost a draft pick to sign whereas Haren almost certainly won't. Even if the Red Sox have a protected first round pick, they'd have to give up their second-round pick for Peavy, and a draft pick in the first third of the second round is still pretty valuable.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Sept 27, 2012 14:05:56 GMT -5
Great point. Ill have to go with Haren if we end up having that choice.
I also think its worth considering taking a pick by letting Papi walk, then signing Berkman as DH.
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Post by remember04 on Sept 27, 2012 15:00:17 GMT -5
Can you decline an option on a player only to offer him a qualifying offer for a draft pick under the new CBA? The Greinke rule about being traded mid season was news to me.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 28, 2012 12:10:04 GMT -5
This little tidbit is probably better here: I went to the Instructional game yesterday in Fort Myers and have gotten to know several of the "groupies". These groupies are 65 to 70 year old men who go to all of the GCL and Instructional games and have season tickets for Spring Training too.
They have some interesting tales and info. A couple of them know the kids real well and talk with the coaches everyday. Anyway, one guy who is very informed told me about Lackey's 2 innings on Sunday and said how really impressive he was. So impressive that he was throwing his 4-seamer at 96. Everyone is pretty convinced that John Lackey is going to be pretty good next season. Boy I hope he is right!! His tips on guys, from the coaches, like Owens and Younginer, and others, panned out. He said Owens was going to be real good and that Madison had no confidence and would struggle.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 28, 2012 12:29:09 GMT -5
Even though it doesn't always work out, it's good to remember that there is some history of improved performance after TJ surgery. We have Tazawa as an immediate example of that. His stuff is electric these days, with increased velocity and what appears to be late movement on his hard stuff.
Now, John Lackey already knows how to pitch. That was never the question. It was all about one very tired arm and his ability to get to anything above 91 and rarely 92 mph on his pitches. If he does have renewed pop to go along with those pitching chops, we could be seeing an easy 3-4 starter re-emerge. If so he can drink all the beer and eat all the chicken he wants as far as I'm concerned. The pitch is the thing.
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Post by kindasweaty on Sept 28, 2012 13:30:40 GMT -5
I know I may be in the minority here, but am I the only one who thinks the Sox could compete next year?
I'm about to list a handful of "if"s right now, but considering Murphy's law hit them hard this year, they could have better luck next year so here goes. . .
IF Ellsbury is healthy and productive. IF Lester returns to form. IF Middlebrooks and Doubront improve on impressive rookie seasons. IF Buchholz figures out April. IF Ortiz returns. IF Ben finds another starter. IF Iglesias can hit above the Mendoza line.
THEN they should be able to compete, right? None of that is out of the question, is it? Or even all that unlikely? I mean Baltimore is going to make playoffs carrying a negative run differential at the moment, why can't the Sox compete by augmenting the roster as is? [/devilsadvocate]
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Post by elguapo on Sept 28, 2012 13:35:38 GMT -5
If so he can drink all the beer and eat all the chicken he wants as far as I'm concerned. It worked for David Wells.... As far as I can figure, Lester, Buchholz, and Lackey are set, for better or for worse. Is De La Rosa ready to step into the rotation? Would Morales succeed as a full time starter? What kind of return would warrant trading Doubront?
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Post by jmei on Sept 28, 2012 14:04:29 GMT -5
I know Doubront really struggled the second half of the season, but he's a young lefty with some upside-- the exact kind of pitcher this team needs. He has swing-and-miss stuff and put up a 3.90 xFIP this year, and with a little refinement in his control, he could be a #3 starter. At the very least, he's a more than adequate back-of-the-rotation guy. I don't think we should relegate him to trade chip duty just yet. Of course, if an appealing deal comes up, I wouldn't hesitate to include Doubront if that's what it takes, but I don't think we should be shopping him around or anything.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 28, 2012 14:06:57 GMT -5
Sorry, no trading 25 year-old cost controlled left-handed arms. Some other time when the Sox are swimming in pitching.
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Post by remember04 on Sept 28, 2012 14:09:58 GMT -5
I know I may be in the minority here, but am I the only one who thinks the Sox could compete next year? I'm about to list a handful of "if"s right now, but considering Murphy's law hit them hard this year, they could have better luck next year so here goes. . . IF Ellsbury is healthy and productive. IF Lester returns to form. IF Middlebrooks and Doubront improve on impressive rookie seasons. IF Buchholz figures out April. IF Ortiz returns. IF Ben finds another starter. IF Iglesias can hit above the Mendoza line. THEN they should be able to compete, right? None of that is out of the question, is it? Or even all that unlikely? I mean Baltimore is going to make playoffs carrying a negative run differential at the moment, why can't the Sox compete by augmenting the roster as is? [/devilsadvocate] I would say you're in the minority here and there's also IF Ellsbury is even here AS I see him going in the off season possibly for a starter/young first baseman or maybe even Elvis Andrus. We also lost Adrian freakin Gonzalez who even on a down year is still a tremendous loss. Papi isn't getting any younger either. Every productive year we get out of him from now on is a gift. You look at the possible upsides but ignore the possible downsides of WMB or Doubront having a tough second season which happens a lot. In the end some of the good you mentioned WILL happen but there will also be unexpected bad to counter it.
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Post by elguapo on Sept 28, 2012 14:28:24 GMT -5
I know I may be in the minority here, but am I the only one who thinks the Sox could compete next year? Depends how/if they spend the $60-80M of luxury cap space and what Cherington can do in the trade market - which adds up to a lot of unknowns. But with a competent result I see no reason they won't compete for a Wild Card at least.
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steveofbradenton
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Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,818
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Post by steveofbradenton on Sept 28, 2012 14:42:35 GMT -5
I know I may be in the minority here, but am I the only one who thinks the Sox could compete next year? I'm about to list a handful of "if"s right now, but considering Murphy's law hit them hard this year, they could have better luck next year so here goes. . . IF Ellsbury is healthy and productive. IF Lester returns to form. IF Middlebrooks and Doubront improve on impressive rookie seasons. IF Buchholz figures out April. IF Ortiz returns. IF Ben finds another starter. IF Iglesias can hit above the Mendoza line. THEN they should be able to compete, right? None of that is out of the question, is it? Or even all that unlikely? I mean Baltimore is going to make playoffs carrying a negative run differential at the moment, why can't the Sox compete by augmenting the roster as is? [/devilsadvocate] I would say you're in the minority here and there's also IF Ellsbury is even here AS I see him going in the off season possibly for a starter/young first baseman or maybe even Elvis Andrus. We also lost Adrian freakin Gonzalez who even on a down year is still a tremendous loss. Papi isn't getting any younger either. Every productive year we get out of him from now on is a gift. You look at the possible upsides but ignore the possible downsides of WMB or Doubront having a tough second season which happens a lot. In the end some of the good you mentioned WILL happen but there will also be unexpected bad to counter it. You are NOT in the minority here!!! Definitely we could be competing for a play-off spot next year, if most of the things go as you stated. I firmly believe there is no good reason to move Ellsbury next year until............ 1) we are out of it in July 2) we get a great offer (and without him signing an extension, don't bet on it) Everything you mentioned kindasweaty is quite possible. We don't need an ace. One that can give 180+ innings and an ERA of 4.5 or less is available on the free agent market. YOU ARE NOT IN THE MINORITY!!
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Post by dmaineah on Sept 28, 2012 14:48:28 GMT -5
You are not in the minority. I totally expect the Red Sox to compete for the Division next year & every year for that matter.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Sept 28, 2012 17:22:46 GMT -5
I know I may be in the minority here, but am I the only one who thinks the Sox could compete next year? I'm about to list a handful of "if"s right now, but considering Murphy's law hit them hard this year, they could have better luck next year so here goes. . . IF Ellsbury is healthy and productive. IF Lester returns to form. IF Middlebrooks and Doubront improve on impressive rookie seasons. IF Buchholz figures out April. IF Ortiz returns. IF Ben finds another starter. IF Iglesias can hit above the Mendoza line.THEN they should be able to compete, right? None of that is out of the question, is it? Or even all that unlikely? I mean Baltimore is going to make playoffs carrying a negative run differential at the moment, why can't the Sox compete by augmenting the roster as is? [/devilsadvocate] You're basically outlining the exact reason the Red Sox probably won't compete next year. All that stuff probably won't happen and you certainly can't count on it happening. A plan that only accounts for the best case scenario isn't much of a plan at all. Also, the Orioles have have been approximately the luckiest team in the history of luck this year. Trying to emulate them is like spending all your money on lotto tickets because, hey, some people get rich off them.
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Post by sarasoxer on Sept 29, 2012 9:04:52 GMT -5
Well, I think kindasweaty has more probables than not in his list but still not all are likely to come true. Other comments about Papi's age and the lack of a first baseman with punch certainly are true. And realistically, what will left-field look like? If we can't generate a stud pitcher thru trade (where are they and how much of the farm would we have to give up?) aren't we going to have to have a consistently productive offense? Does today's projected lineup (with all injuries healed) look that way? I'm a little iffy here.
I do expect that Lester will be better....He has pitched well lately and can't be worse than he was for much of the season. But is he a shut-down guy? Buch has moved to our No. 1...solid...dependable. ...good stuff, good control..can go late into games..Morales was pretty good, a surprise positive. Doubront will be better still IMO as he continues to grow.
I think that major change is a comin' but it will be calculated and after exhaustive research and thought. Hope will spring from those changes not so much from oiling the current machine IMO. I'm willing to be patient and let the braintrust work.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Sept 29, 2012 12:03:15 GMT -5
Can you decline an option on a player only to offer him a qualifying offer for a draft pick under the new CBA? The Greinke rule about being traded mid season was news to me. Haren has a $15.5M option for '13 which the Angels reportedly will decline. They'll exercise the $3.5M buyout so I doubt they make him a QO (in the $13-14M range) because if he accepts they'd be paying him more than they would have by picking up his option in the first place. Not smart business.
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Sept 29, 2012 12:12:04 GMT -5
Lester's numbers have been trending down
2010 3.25 ERA, 3.13 FIP, 1.20 WHIP, 9.74 K/9, 8.9% HR/FB 2011 3.47 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 1.26 WHIP, 8.55 K/9, 11.4% HR/FB 2012 4.94 ERA, 4.14 FIP, 1.37 WHIP, 7.41 K/9, 14.3% HR/FB
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Post by remember04 on Sept 29, 2012 16:45:55 GMT -5
Can you decline an option on a player only to offer him a qualifying offer for a draft pick under the new CBA? The Greinke rule about being traded mid season was news to me. Haren has a $15.5M option for '13 which the Angels reportedly will decline. They'll exercise the $3.5M buyout so I doubt they make him a QO (in the $13-14M range) because if he accepts they'd be paying him more than they would have by picking up his option in the first place. Not smart business. What about Jake Peavy and the White Sox?
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Post by Legion of Bloom on Sept 29, 2012 18:02:29 GMT -5
You can decline an option and offer a QO, depends on X (the buyout amount) and Y (if he is worth the QO + the buyout amount, there is the risk that the player accepts). For example, Ortiz salary this year was $14.5M, let's say for the sake of the argument that we had a club option for '13 with a $2M buyout. Is Ortiz worth the $2M plus the QO ($13-14M) to us? You could say so, however, if he's not then he would not receive the QO.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 29, 2012 22:52:45 GMT -5
That's the beauty of this system - IMO, the best change in the new CBA. Don't hire Elias to rank these guys - let the teams determine if the player is worth receiving compensation by putting their money where their mouths are.
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Post by jmei on Sept 30, 2012 16:20:43 GMT -5
Haren has a $15.5M option for '13 which the Angels reportedly will decline. They'll exercise the $3.5M buyout so I doubt they make him a QO (in the $13-14M range) because if he accepts they'd be paying him more than they would have by picking up his option in the first place. Not smart business. What about Jake Peavy and the White Sox? Peavy has a $22m team option with a $4m buyout-- so, realistically, an $18m team option. Recent reports have the White Sox planning to turn down the option but offer the $13-14m qualified option. Thus, signing Peavy will probably result in the loss of a draft pick.
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Post by sibbysisti on Sept 30, 2012 18:16:08 GMT -5
What about Jake Peavy and the White Sox? Peavy has a $22m team option with a $4m buyout-- so, realistically, an $18m team option. Recent reports have the White Sox planning to turn down the option but offer the $13-14m qualified option. Thus, signing Peavy will probably result in the loss of a draft pick. ....but not a first round pick in the case of the Yawkey Way franchise.
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Post by Guidas on Sept 30, 2012 20:56:36 GMT -5
Sorry, no trading 25 year-old cost controlled left-handed arms. Some other time when the Sox are swimming in pitching. King Felix being the operative exclusion to that - and, of course there'd be a whole lot more than Doubront going the other way.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 1, 2012 8:06:59 GMT -5
Sorry, no trading 25 year-old cost controlled left-handed arms. Some other time when the Sox are swimming in pitching. King Felix being the operative exclusion to that - and, of course there'd be a whole lot more than Doubront going the other way. The team needs a lot more than the King....and it would be just our luck that he would throw a shoe. I am not one for quick fixes. Let the re-directed and sobered up focus of management take its course. I think that the next couple of years are going to be very exciting as a new machine is built.
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