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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 12, 2013 14:59:10 GMT -5
Lester's extension probably deserves it's own thread, but I'll let a mod separate out that discussion if it gets going. How does everyone feel about Lester and an extension? How much would they go, assuming they would give him one? He reportedly wants to stay: nesn.com/2013/12/jon-lester-hopes-to-remain-with-red-sox-beyond-2014-says-playing-in-boston-all-i-want-to-know/He's been frustrating to me over the years, but there's a couple things that you can't dispute with him: 1. He takes the ball pretty much every time out. (last 6 years: 31+ starts a year/over 200IP 5 of 6 and min 191IP) 2. He's gotten good results in the postseason Some people will dismiss the notion of a player raising his level of performance in the post season, but I don't so that factors into my personal decision. The more important factors are other options available and what the team would look like without him. As far as I'm concerned, market values for pitchers are out of hand, but you need to play within the world you live. A big market team needs to take some calculated gambles, and a guy like Lester who's been durable, seems like a good gamble on a 5 year extension at around 20m per year. He may be looking for a Cole Hamels type contract which makes some sense, but Hamels was 2 years younger when he signed his deal. So 5 years at 100 - 115m seems to make a lot of sense here. I'm not a big fan of 100M long-term contracts, but at 5 years and low 20's it makes sense. It's a risk mitigated by a lot of young pitching/players on it's way, plus Buchholz signed to team friendly deal and Doubront being somewhat cost controlled. There's also a weak FA market so there's not much available to replace it. If Lester demands 6/7/8 years, it's going to get tricky. |
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 12, 2013 15:05:12 GMT -5
Lester's extension probably deserves it's own thread, but I'll let a mod separate out that discussion if it gets going. How does everyone feel about Lester and an extension? How much would they go, assuming they would give him one? He reportedly wants to stay: nesn.com/2013/12/jon-lester-hopes-to-remain-with-red-sox-beyond-2014-says-playing-in-boston-all-i-want-to-know/He's been frustrating to me over the years, but there's a couple things that you can't dispute with him: 1. He takes the ball pretty much every time out. (last 6 years: 31+ starts a year/over 200IP 5 of 6 and min 191IP) 2. He's gotten good results in the postseason Some people will dismiss the notion of a player raising his level of performance in the post season, but I don't so that factors into my personal decision. The more important factors are other options available and what the team would look like without him. As far as I'm concerned, market values for pitchers are out of hand, but you need to play within the world you live. A big market team needs to take some calculated gambles, and a guy like Lester who's been durable, seems like a good gamble on a 5 year extension at around 20m per year. He may be looking for a Cole Hamels type contract which makes some sense, but Hamels was 2 years younger when he signed his deal. So 5 years at 100 - 115m seems to make a lot of sense here. I'm not a big fan of 100M long-term contracts, but at 5 years and low 20's it makes sense. It's a risk mitigated by a lot of young pitching/players on it's way, plus Buchholz signed to team friendly deal and Doubront being somewhat cost controlled. There's also a weak FA market so there's not much available to replace it. If Lester demands 6/7/8 years, it's going to get tricky. It's hard to say what is a decent contract right now. It'll probably be higher and longer than anyone suggests right now unless he pulls a Pedey. I'd start out with 5/100 6/110, but I know it's going for more. As far as Lester's post season dominance goes... He had turned it around long before then. He was pretty lights out for the 2nd half of the season. |
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 12, 2013 15:23:19 GMT -5
Chris Cotillo ?@chriscotillo 18m
Someone I spoke to from MA said they saw Jon Lester at the Magic Kingdom this week. With extension possible, it's interesting. #RedSox
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 12, 2013 15:54:20 GMT -5
The cost for Lester is likely 6/140-150.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 12, 2013 15:57:17 GMT -5
The cost for Lester is likely 6/140-150. So is that a lot of inflation, or is Lester almost as good as Greinke? |
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 12, 2013 16:20:08 GMT -5
Chris Cotillo ?@chriscotillo 18m Someone I spoke to from MA said they saw Jon Lester at the Magic Kingdom this week. With extension possible, it's interesting. #RedSox That's confusing. What does Magic Kingdom have to do with anything? It's so far away from Miami. |
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Dec 12, 2013 16:20:56 GMT -5
It is totally amazing what someone like Ervin Santana is asking for now-a-days. Pretty much becoming a starting pitcher in someone's rotation in the major leagues means life changing money. Many of these guys are below average and still are pulling in millions. The market is crazy!
So with respect to our Jon Lester, yes I would like the Sox to extend the guy. I would hope we could do it for just 5 years at close to $20 Million. (I can't believe I mentioned those numbers!) Maybe in a world in which he will give the Red Sox a slight discount, we could sign him for say $18 million per year for 6 years.
Jon is a solid starting pitcher, who at times is downright nasty and dominating. I wish he was THAT pitcher more consistently. Anyway, he is what he is and he is worth extending. He wants to stay a Red Sox. He has been healthy. He has given us 200 innings or more pretty much every year for the last 6 years. He is only going to be 30 in January. He works hard. He was drafted and developed by this organization.
I hope Ben can sign him for no more than 6 years (hopefully 5). I hope Ben can sign him for $18 million per (hopefully for no more than $20 million per).
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Post by soxfanatic on Dec 12, 2013 16:27:27 GMT -5
Chris Cotillo ?@chriscotillo 18m Someone I spoke to from MA said they saw Jon Lester at the Magic Kingdom this week. With extension possible, it's interesting. #RedSox That's confusing. What does Magic Kingdom have to do with anything? It's so far away from Miami. The Winter Meetings are in Orlando, Florida. |
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 12, 2013 16:33:44 GMT -5
He has a four-year old son, right? I'd love Lester even more if he was able to take his kid to Disney and troll the sports media in the process.
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Post by elguapo on Dec 12, 2013 16:34:57 GMT -5
That's what a $190M budget is for, to sign guys like Lester.
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 12, 2013 17:03:21 GMT -5
That's confusing. What does Magic Kingdom have to do with anything? It's so far away from Miami. The Winter Meetings are in Orlando, Florida. Oops! |
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Post by oilcansman on Dec 12, 2013 17:38:33 GMT -5
Lester has outperformed Greinke, whose contract is 6 yrs. at $148 million. Free agency is only a year away for Lester and there are few good pitchers who make it to free agency. It's a pretty sure bet Yankees would give Lester 7 years to get him away from Sox. The going rate is $25 mill per season for him. If Lester has a good agent, the ask is probably 8 years $200M. A fair deal probably is 6 years $150 million.
Sox need to either get something done by Feb. or trade Lester. If Lester reaches free agency he's a goner and the Sox can't lose him for a sandwich pick.
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Post by h11233 on Dec 12, 2013 17:42:19 GMT -5
Hopefully they get the mythic "hometown discount" and extend him before he hits the open market. That FA class is loaded with pitchers as it stands, and I'm Kershaw dreaming on this winter's day.
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Post by burythehammer on Dec 12, 2013 17:43:33 GMT -5
I'd do it if he agrees to have Pedroia negotiate the deal for him.
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Post by mainesox on Dec 12, 2013 17:46:51 GMT -5
Lester has outperformed Greinke, whose contract is 6 yrs. at $148 million. Free agency is only a year away for Lester and there are few good pitchers who make it to free agency. It's a pretty sure bet Yankees would give Lester 7 years to get him away from Sox. The going rate is $25 mill per season for him. If Lester has a good agent, the ask is probably 8 years $200M. A fair deal probably is 6 years $150 million. Sox need to either get something done by Feb. or trade Lester. If Lester reaches free agency he's a goner and the Sox can't lose him for a sandwich pick. The only thing Lester has outperformed Greinke at is wearing a B on his hat. |
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Post by moonstone2 on Dec 12, 2013 17:58:52 GMT -5
The cost for Lester is likely 6/140-150. So is that a lot of inflation, or is Lester almost as good as Greinke? Given his post season resume I think he's within his rights to ask for what Grienke, Hammels and Sabathia got. |
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Post by mredsox89 on Dec 12, 2013 17:59:53 GMT -5
He said on WEEI a week or so ago after the Ellsbury deal that he knows he would probably have to take a bit less money than he could get on the open market to stay with the Sox, similarly to his last deal.
As much as I'd like to them not have to wait until after the 2014 season to sign him, it would be very difficult to get it done now due to it boosting up his AAV. I could see them getting it done halfway through the season or something like that so that it does't take away much of their potential relief under 189
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 12, 2013 18:16:10 GMT -5
Often they would sign it right after the season started, which is why Lester said spring training.
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Post by Gwell55 on Dec 12, 2013 18:27:30 GMT -5
Often they would sign it right after the season started, which is why Lester said spring training. Is that because or like what happened with Adrian Gonzales and his extension so it wouldn't be counted in this years Luxury tax if they wait to sign until after the season started. I think that is the way it goes and if so wouldn't that effect Lester and this year's tax? |
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Post by sammo420 on Dec 12, 2013 18:55:31 GMT -5
Some of this talk about hometown discount and postseason performance reminds me of the Beckett talks. I don't know how much of a hometown discount he got but I do remember a lot of debate over whether he'd be worth it and lack of better options available in the future. I hope this turns out better if it happens.
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Post by GyIantosca on Dec 12, 2013 20:07:18 GMT -5
Me personally I would offer him 4/100. Stick to the model over pay for less years. He takes that and he is about 34 maybe 35 when done.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 12, 2013 20:23:14 GMT -5
I think 5 100 is the start.
Let's see where we go from there
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 12, 2013 20:32:05 GMT -5
The other thing about Jon is he has that typical jock talk including both sides of an argument at the same time.
I found the weei interview of particular interest.
All the quotes were positive towards a home town discount but the actual words were on both sides of the argument.
I hope he stays.
I hope the deal is reasonable.
But if this is not in the cards, I hope we move forward by the deadline and land way more than a pick.
Let's let Price set the market.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 12, 2013 20:58:56 GMT -5
I don't want to trade him. They don't "only" get the pick if they keep him for the year - they get the pick and Lester's 2014 season, which should be pretty good. It's very likely that his 2014 will be worth more than the difference between the 30th (or so) pick and whatever they could get for him in a deal.
Look at the Ellsbury deal. They didn't just get a draft pick because they kept him this year - they got a draft pick and championship. The Red Sox are a championship level team in 2014 with Lester on it, something they may not be without him.
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Post by Gwell55 on Dec 12, 2013 21:05:40 GMT -5
The other thing about Jon is he has that typical jock talk including both sides of an argument at the same time. I found the weei interview of particular interest. All the quotes were positive towards a home town discount but the actual words were on both sides of the argument. I hope he stays. I hope the deal is reasonable. But if this is not in the cards, I hope we move forward by the deadline and land way more than a pick. Let's let Price set the market. Has John Henry ever traded a front line player let alone a front line pitcher in his tenure with the sox... the last I heard about from the office statements was the sox are in contention every year and they need their stars... We the fans here need to remember that and look at what the front office always does with it's front line players coming to the end of their current contracts. I don't think they are going to trade Lester, it will be on the same lines as Jake, Damon, and all the other front liners in their final year. The only front liners traded were that malcontent bunch that was necessitated by their actions in the clubhouse. Manny I guess can be counted as a trade for another star power but once again that was a discipline antics decision. |
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