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Possible extension for Lester
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Apr 14, 2014 16:05:52 GMT -5
The market is exploding for top starting pitching. Lester's "I'll give a hometown discount" is clearly in the eye of the beholder. I never believed it for a second. Maybe up to a $5 mil discount long term. That was about what we were going to get at best.
Cherington knows the drill and has even specifically stated the problem. The market for top starting pitching is possibly now off the rails. Maybe he's thinking the next few signings may not be as crazy as the Tanaka bidding and it might bring down salary demands a little. It makes sense.
The Yanks were desparate for Tanaka. They were desparate for starting pitching in general. The bidding therefore for Tanaka got out of control.
The market may keep going up or it might drop a little. It's possible waiting is the best move. I just hope that when the going gets tough we make a solid effort to keep Lester. And to me that is probably 6 years and $120 mil even though I think Ben's head is going to explode if he goes that high.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Apr 14, 2014 17:19:03 GMT -5
The market is exploding for top starting pitching. Lester's "I'll give a hometown discount" is clearly in the eye of the beholder. I never believed it for a second. Maybe up to a $5 mil discount long term. That was about what we were going to get at best. Cherington knows the drill and has even specifically stated the problem. The market for top starting pitching is possibly now off the rails. Maybe he's thinking the next few signings may not be as crazy as the Tanaka bidding and it might bring down salary demands a little. It makes sense. The Yanks were desparate for Tanaka. They were desparate for starting pitching in general. The bidding therefore for Tanaka got out of control. The market may keep going up or it might drop a little. It's possible waiting is the best move. I just hope that when the going gets tough we make a solid effort to keep Lester. And to me that is probably 6 years and $120 mil even though I think Ben's head is going to explode if he goes that high. I would agree to this and add that the market for his services will be determined by how many people want him on their staff. Given the influx of TV money, the amount of potential buyers would increase.
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Post by jmei on Apr 14, 2014 18:46:36 GMT -5
jmei: Wainwright signed the deal in March, 2013. It's pretty much agreed upon in baseball circles that it was team friendly. hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2014/01/18/adam-wainwright-has-no-regrets-about-signing-five-year-97-5-million-contract-extension/In 2011, he missed season with TJS. 2012 was a so so season for him as he had a 4.00 era and a .500 record. Then he signed long term. His situation was not comparable to Lester, as Lester is in a stronger spot both durability and performance wise during negotiations. In addition, as we saw this past year, the cost of upper end pitching rose. Therefor, offering Lester Wainwright money is the lower end of reasonable. A few notes: -At the time, the Wainwright extension wasn't regarded as team friendly, but rather a risky commitment to a pitcher coming off a major injury and entering his 30s. It's only after the fact, when he finished second in Cy Young voting in 2013, that analysts saw it as team friendly. See, for instance, this BP write-up, this Fangraphs article estimating that a fair extension would be 5/$86m, this SBNation article questioning it, or this Grantland article noting the risk in extending a 32-year-old pitcher (but concluding that it may represent the new market rate for elite pitchers). -When you look beyond wins and ERA, Wainwright's 2012 was arguably better than Lester's 2013. He put up an 82 FIP- and an 83 xFIP- that year (albeit in 15 fewer innings), compared to Lester's 87 FIP- and 98 xFIP-. As I noted above, if you go back longer, Wainwright is just on another tier. He finished second in Cy Young voting in 2010 and third in 2009, the two years prior to his Tommy John surgery. Lester, meanwhile, is coming off three good-not-great seasons and appears unlikely to ever return to his Cy Young-contending form of 2008-10. -The only significant pitcher extensions since then that might have boosted the market are those for Kershaw (who is clearly on another level), Tanaka (who is a bad comp because of his youth), and Bailey (who actually is a good comp for Lester and got well short of what some in this thread want to give Lester). Given the above, 5/$100m seems like a median, market rate figure for a Lester extension, with Lester's superior durability and the fact that he's one year younger balancing out the fact that Wainwright was clearly a much, much better pitcher.
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Post by Guidas on Apr 15, 2014 10:40:44 GMT -5
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Post by godot on Apr 15, 2014 11:01:33 GMT -5
Lester is a smart dude, and seems to be a strong union guy. From his statements he suggests that he is not just doing a contract for himself but also setting the bar for those that follows. He does not want to put them at a disadvantage. I take him as being honest here. I can see where the Sox are coming from, but what I do not know and perhaps also what they do not know is how he can be replaced in the near future. Next year Peavy and Lackey are a year older. Felix is still trying to be consistent. And then there is Clay with his injury resume. Their prospects are just that, and injuries are always a possibility here. it is probably early to see what they have with Webster, Barnes, Ranuado, et al, and would not be surprised if Sox want to wait this one out until they get a better gauge. Let's face it most contracts are overpays, but that is how the market works. JH does not like this and wants to set what he believes is a fair price, whatever that means.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 17, 2014 19:20:49 GMT -5
Wainwright is a better pitcher than Lester and it's not even debatable. If you look at his 2012 numbers you aren't doing justice to the fact that the first half was off then he started dominating again over the second half. He was clearly back from the injury.
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Post by soxcentral on Apr 25, 2014 7:45:50 GMT -5
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Apr 25, 2014 7:56:42 GMT -5
If we're going to give up lester I hope we are either very seriously in contention this season or get a nice package for him at the trade deadline.
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Post by jdb on May 1, 2014 17:46:59 GMT -5
Has anyone listened to the Olney and Law podcast regarding Lester and the extension? I'll probably give it a listen tomorrow but just curious if anyone had yet.
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Post by grandsalami on May 5, 2014 11:47:21 GMT -5
“@pgammo: Bosox ownership sees Sabathia/Kuroda lose 4 on homestand(19.1 IP, 36 H, 18 ER) in Lester scope, but think 2015--18 w/out him...not good” Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Post by jmei on May 5, 2014 11:50:44 GMT -5
That's a pretty incomprehensible tweet, even by Gammons' standards.
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Post by godot on May 5, 2014 11:53:48 GMT -5
Gammo translation ( I am also senile, know the code): Sox see what is happening to C.C. and long term contracts and see Lester in the same light. Don't expect to see him with Sox after this year.
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Post by joshv02 on May 5, 2014 11:54:27 GMT -5
Gammo is saying that the Sox realize the Yankees have a need for Lester, and (not sure why "but") that the Sox don't want to be without him from 2015-18. In other words: no news.
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Post by joshv02 on May 5, 2014 11:55:11 GMT -5
Gammo translation ( I am also senile, know the code): Sox see what is happening to C.C. and long term contracts and see Lester in the same light. Don't expect to see him with Sox after this year. I can't see how you can get that.
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Post by grandsalami on May 5, 2014 11:57:03 GMT -5
by MARK POLISHUK | MAY 5, 2014 The recent struggles of Yankees starters C.C. Sabathia (age 33) and Hiroki Kuroda (age 39) weigh on the minds of Red Sox management in regards to a possible Jon Lester extension, Peter Gammons tweets. While the Sox are surely interested in keeping Lester in the fold through 2018, anything beyond that could be problematic given the history of guaranteeing big money to aging pitchers. Lester would be 35 on Opening Day 2019, which could be why Boston’s most recent offer to the southpaw was a four-year extension. Mlbtr
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Post by iakovos11 on May 5, 2014 12:03:16 GMT -5
Can't see why 4-yrs with vesting for 5th (and likely 6th) couldn't work. Maybe Lester would do that? But seems like a compromise. If Lester is pitching well and healthy, he'll get the 5th and maybe 6th year. If not, he won't. Sure he'd get 5 yrs - and maybe 6 guaranteed in the offseason if he wants that. But if the vesting concept works for Lester, I'd like to think there is enough common ground to get something done. Might depend on the relative ease/difficulty of meeting the vesting requirements.
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Post by jmei on May 5, 2014 12:24:50 GMT -5
I think if Lester and his agents were willing to accept only four guaranteed years, we would have seen a deal already-- this front office has shown a willingness to overpay in AAV for fewer years, as well as an openness to vesting options (see, e.g., the Ortiz extension).
Instead, my guess is that the Lester camp still wants six years, which he would very likely get on the open market. A six-year extension would take Lester through his age-36 season, which is about where recent long-term contracts for pitchers have been willing to go (for example, the Wainwright extension goes up to his age-37 season). Yes, Lester has said that he's willing to take a hometown discount, but we have no idea what that means. If he thinks he's actually worth Greinke/Tanaka/Hamels money, a hometown discount in his eyes might be 6/$120m, which might be a non-starter for the Red Sox.
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Post by joshv02 on May 5, 2014 12:41:06 GMT -5
by MARK POLISHUK | MAY 5, 2014 The recent struggles of Yankees starters C.C. Sabathia (age 33) and Hiroki Kuroda (age 39) weigh on the minds of Red Sox management in regards to a possible Jon Lester extension, Peter Gammons tweets. Well, clearly your senility is better than mine.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on May 5, 2014 12:44:00 GMT -5
1) Pay more for Max Scherzer 2) Pay a similar amount for James Shields 3) Pay less for Justin Masterson Option 3 is starting to look like the most likely alternative to me. Especially given his asking price, seems like a good fit for this team.
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Post by amfox1 on May 5, 2014 13:29:15 GMT -5
1) Pay more for Max Scherzer 2) Pay a similar amount for James Shields 3) Pay less for Justin Masterson Option 3 is starting to look like the most likely alternative to me. Especially given his asking price, seems like a good fit for this team. 4) Pay Lester 5) Promote from within Scherzer isn't going to happen. No way Detroit lets him go. Shields isn't going to happen. He's 32 and having another terrific year. The Red Sox would likely pay Lester over Shields. Masterson is a horse and a great guy but he's a mediocre pitcher and only one year younger than Lester. If it's between a 30-year old Masterson at $13mm/year and a 26-year old RDLR/Workman, 25-year old Webster or 24-year old cost-controlled Barnes, I'm taking one of the kids. I think the only two legitimate options of the five listed above are (a) bite the bullet on Lester and come to something like a five-year $100-110mm agreement or (b) let him go, take the draft pick and fill his rotation spot with one of the prospects (which would also mean keeping Peavy).
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Post by mgoetze on May 5, 2014 13:46:41 GMT -5
Masterson is a horse and a great guy but he's a mediocre pitcher and only one year younger than Lester. If it's between a 30-year old Masterson at $13mm/year and a 26-year old RDLR/Workman, 25-year old Webster or 24-year old cost-controlled Barnes, I'm taking one of the kids. I think the only two legitimate options of the five listed above are (a) bite the bullet on Lester and come to something like a five-year $100-110mm agreement or (b) let him go, take the draft pick and fill his rotation spot with one of the prospects (which would also mean keeping Peavy). I do think one spot is available for the taking by whichever prospect proves himself most worthy. But in my mind, it's Peavy's spot that is available, not Lester's, and I don't want Peavy filling Lester's spot. That is of course a matter of perspective, a different way of thinking could lead to the same moves in the end. I don't really see why Scherzer or Shields would be out of the question. But I do think there are additional options, such as a trade for someone like Samardzija.
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Post by Guidas on May 9, 2014 9:35:45 GMT -5
Masterson is a horse and a great guy but he's a mediocre pitcher and only one year younger than Lester. If it's between a 30-year old Masterson at $13mm/year and a 26-year old RDLR/Workman, 25-year old Webster or 24-year old cost-controlled Barnes, I'm taking one of the kids. I think the only two legitimate options of the five listed above are (a) bite the bullet on Lester and come to something like a five-year $100-110mm agreement or (b) let him go, take the draft pick and fill his rotation spot with one of the prospects (which would also mean keeping Peavy). I do think one spot is available for the taking by whichever prospect proves himself most worthy. But in my mind, it's Peavy's spot that is available, not Lester's, and I don't want Peavy filling Lester's spot. That is of course a matter of perspective, a different way of thinking could lead to the same moves in the end. I don't really see why Scherzer or Shields would be out of the question. But I do think there are additional options, such as a trade for someone like Samardzija. Boras client. Turned down reported 6 yr $144M deal from Detroit, where he'd have half his starts in a pitcher's park and a team that has been committed to winning. He's prob looking for 6-7 yrs at $26-28M per. My guess is Sox won't offer that kind of coin.
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Post by mgoetze on May 9, 2014 9:53:13 GMT -5
Boras client. Turned down reported 6 yr $144M deal from Detroit, where he'd have half his starts in a pitcher's park and a team that has been committed to winning. He's prob looking for 6-7 yrs at $26-28M per. My guess is Sox won't offer that kind of coin. Well, first of all, you can't take all such reports as bare facts. Secondly, he might just not like Detroit for some reason. Thirdly, there is a chance he might actually be worth that much money. If you assume he can put up 6, 5.5, 5, 4.5, 4 and 3.5 WAR seasons and multiply that with $6m/WAR you end up at $171m/6yr. And finally all the assumptions about how the Sox are going to spend their money are just that... assumptions. And while some principles can be observed that suggest they might not do this sort of contract all the time, I do believe that they are flexible enough that, if they really think this is the right guy, they could still do it.
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Post by bsout2 on May 9, 2014 10:45:53 GMT -5
My favorite Max Scherzer stat.......ZERO complete games in his career. It is mind boggling to me that he may get $26 million plus a year and never once has finished a game he started.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on May 9, 2014 11:26:42 GMT -5
It's difficult to understand why Scherzer would turn down a $144 mil deal in his situation. If he gets a shoulder injury he gets nothing. Or some other mishap could effect things a lot. Just a bad year in general cuts that in half pretty easily. It doesn't seem like appropriate risk management decisionmaking.
Even if a guy is confident he is healthy and confident in his abilities I still wouldn't turn down an extention in that range if I were Scherzer. And yes, I know he is already a multi millionaire.
All that said, the Yanks did give Tanaka effectively $175 mil. The market for top pitching is unstable and there probably is union pressure on these guys to test the market some. It is in the player union's interest for guys to test the market on the high end. Is that enough to keep them from securing their families forever though? I don't know about that. That kind of money could do a lot of good. And I'd take the deal.
It probably ends up that Scherzer does come in above $170 mil. Someone must think that is in his range or he would have taken the deal one would think.
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