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Possible extension for Lester
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Post by nexus on Dec 13, 2013 13:52:41 GMT -5
Mainesox: I'm always curious when somebody cherry picks numbers. Hmm, you conveniently start in 2011. What you are doing is taking one bad season Lester had in 2012 (the only one of his career) and using it to skew the numbers. Rest assured, neither Lester's agent or the other MLB teams will follow such a formula. The market considers career numbers and a players most recent season far more than any other formula. Lester career win percentage better (not an important consideration really). ERA .10 less than Greinke. Greinke pitched to National League last three years, while Lester has AL in Fenway Park. Only the ignorant wouldn't give Lester the edge here. Lester fewer career innings by 300. Strikeouts to innings Lester is a little better. BB/SO Greinke is a little better. Greinke has been pitching against pitcher and #8 batter in NL lineup last three years, while Lester has pitched to D.H. Lester strikeout and bb/so numbers will be viewed as better than Greinke's. Lester has won HUGE post season games in a tough market. Greinke is a question in the post season and has a history of anxiety problems. Greinke won a cy young in 2009. That's the only thing he has over Lester, and it happened four years ago. Lester has two all star games, while Greinke has one. When Greinke got his huge contract he was coming off a year where his ERA was 3.48 in the NL. Lester is coming off a 3.75 ERA in the AL and post season domination (which has not been factored into his ERA for 2013). The ERA adjustment between NL and AL is anywhere from .25 to .50 (I think its .50 but I defer to some our moderator on this issue). So Lester had a better season in 2013 than Greinke had in the year leading up to his contract when considering post season domination. Mainesox, the problem is you didn't really do your homework before making your silly admonition of my opinion. Point: Mainesox The Wainwright extension signed earlier this year should serve as the guidepost for Lester talks. Anything more than that and I point to his less than stellar 50 start stretch from late 2011 to mid 2013. For as good as he was in the playoffs this year, he was equally as bad during the late 2011 all 2012 meltdown.
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 13, 2013 14:09:31 GMT -5
It's always a good time when a poster calls another out for cherry picking stats then goes on to do the same. Give me an example and show me how I tried to skew a result. Well for one, you used different statistics than he did. Not a different range, completely different statistics. And isn't using career numbers vs a recent sample size arbitrary in and of itself? It's not like he used an extremely small sample. You can quibble a bit if you want, but to say GMs use career numbers more then a recent sample is made up babble. Agents use whatever is in their best interest and every team looks at things differently. In reality, you need to look at multiple things.
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Post by mainesox on Dec 13, 2013 14:27:38 GMT -5
Mainesox: I'm always curious when somebody cherry picks numbers. Hmm, you conveniently start in 2011. What you are doing is taking one bad season Lester had in 2012 (the only one of his career) and using it to skew the numbers. Rest assured, neither Lester's agent or the other MLB teams will follow such a formula. The market considers career numbers and a players most recent season far more than any other formula. Lester career win percentage better (not an important consideration really). ERA .10 less than Greinke. Greinke pitched to National League last three years, while Lester has AL in Fenway Park. Only the ignorant wouldn't give Lester the edge here. Lester fewer career innings by 300. Strikeouts to innings Lester is a little better. BB/SO Greinke is a little better. Greinke has been pitching against pitcher and #8 batter in NL lineup last three years, while Lester has pitched to D.H. Lester strikeout and bb/so numbers will be viewed as better than Greinke's. Lester has won HUGE post season games in a tough market. Greinke is a question in the post season and has a history of anxiety problems. Greinke won a cy young in 2009. That's the only thing he has over Lester, and it happened four years ago. Lester has two all star games, while Greinke has one. When Greinke got his huge contract he was coming off a year where his ERA was 3.48 in the NL. Lester is coming off a 3.75 ERA in the AL and post season domination (which has not been factored into his ERA for 2013). The ERA adjustment between NL and AL is anywhere from .25 to .50 (I think its .50 but I defer to some our moderator on this issue). So Lester had a better season in 2013 than Greinke had in the year leading up to his contract when considering post season domination. Mainesox, the problem is you didn't really do your homework before making your silly admonition of my opinion. I was going to respond, but I think sdiaz1 pretty well covered it. I would just add that I find it hilarious that you accuse me of not doing my homework after basing your entire argument on Win%, ERA, Cy Young awards, and All-Star games.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 13, 2013 14:47:24 GMT -5
Also, Grienke's career numbers are skewed negatively because he had a 4.98 ERA in 334 innings before his 23rd birthday. No GM is using those numbers in their valuation of him. Since the start of 2007, Greinke's ERA is 3.32 (ERA+ of 125).
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Post by oilcansman on Dec 13, 2013 14:51:06 GMT -5
Sdiaz:
Funny how you skip over the national league v. american league argument, which is central to any analysis. Oh, well! Yeah, Fenway and American League is "more forgiving" than national league and Dodger Stadium! I realize wins are discounted but never heard anyone say it has no value in free agency. Also interesting that you marginalize the season before free agency argument. It's critically important to free agency. It's the last piece of significant data to use in assessing players. GM's and agents unusually cite those numbers and career numbers when explaining arbitration awards, which lead to free agency. You simply didn't understand my awards argument (my point is awards don't really matter in assessing performance, although it's interesting how they always are mentioned by agents an GM's). Awards are fabulous for marketing by agents to GMs and teams to fans. Marketing is $$$$. Marketing is part of free agency.
Fundamentally, you don't understand free agency. Players get compared to other players and usually paid at a higher rate than their comp. from prior years. See Crawford, Carl and Ellsbury, Jacoby. Somewhat sloppy in comparing them but Boras and MFY clearly used it in coming to an agreement on Ellsbury. Saying Lester and Greinke aren't a good and most importantly a convenient comp. is an exercise in denial.
Lester would be giving the sox a discount by accepting Greinke's contract.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 13, 2013 15:02:40 GMT -5
Here are both players' ERA+ (meaning park and league adjusted) from that year to the present for every year their careers have overlapped. | Greinke | Lester | Since 2006 | 125 | 117 | Since 2007 | 125 | 119 | Since 2008 | 125 | 120 | Since 2009 | 125 | 115 | Since 2010 | 111 | 111 | Since 2011 | 116 | 104 | Since 2012 | 123 | 97 | Since 2013 | 135 | 109 |
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 13, 2013 15:21:36 GMT -5
James what does it mean if Greinke's number is higher then Lester's every year?
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 13, 2013 15:24:37 GMT -5
Which pitcher stat adjusts ERA+ for fielding, HR/FB, LOB% rates and BAPIP?
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Post by mainesox on Dec 13, 2013 15:47:57 GMT -5
Which pitcher stat adjusts ERA+ for fielding, HR/FB, LOB% rates and BAPIP? Their BABIPs and LOB%s are virtually identical, so there's really nothing to adjust there, but it sounds like what you're looking for is xFIP- (lower is better rather than higher): Greinke LesterSince 2006 81 89 Since 2007 81 88 Since 2008 80 87 Since 2009 79 85 Since 2010 81 89 Since 2011 80 93 Since 2012 85 95 Since 2013 91 98
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 13, 2013 15:50:25 GMT -5
Which pitcher stat adjusts ERA+ for fielding, HR/FB, LOB% rates and BAPIP? Their BABIPs and LOB%s are virtually identical, so there's really nothing to adjust there, but it sounds like what you're looking for is xFIP- (lower is better rather than higher): Greinke LesterSince 2006 81 89 Since 2007 81 88 Since 2008 80 87 Since 2009 79 85 Since 2010 81 89 Since 2011 80 93 Since 2012 85 95 Since 2013 91 98 Thanks. Is that generally accepted as the best stat to compare pitchers' performances removing bias and luck?
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Post by rjp313jr on Dec 13, 2013 15:59:52 GMT -5
SIERA is good too... www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/siera/Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA) is the newest in a long line of ERA estimators. Like it’s predecessors FIP and xFIP, SIERA attempts to answer the question: what is the underlying skill level of this pitcher? How well did they actually pitch over the past year? Should their ERA have been higher, lower, or was it about right? But while FIP and xFIP largely ignore balls in play — they focus on strikeouts, walks, and homeruns instead — SIERA adds in complexity in an attempt to more accurately model what makes a pitcher successful. SIERA doesn’t ignore balls in play, but attempts to explain why certain pitchers are more successful at limiting hits and preventing runs. This is the strength of SIERA; while it is only slightly more predictive than xFIP, SIERA tells us more about the how and why of pitching. Greinke and Lester comp from 2009-2013 www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,4,5,11,7,8,13,-1,36,37,40,43,44,48,51,-1,6,45,62,-1,59,122&season=2013&month=0&season1=2009&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=4930,1943 Funny thing is i have made it clear Greinke is not an elite starter as far as I'm concerned and probably over-paid, but the market paid him. He's better then Lester though. One key point I keep forgetting to make is we are talking about extending Lester NOT signing him as a free agent. Huge difference. If Lester demands top dollar, the you let him go to free agency. Signing a year early is a big advantage for Lester that costs money. Protects versus injury and performance drops. It's money in hand before you're free to negotiate. Greinke was a free agent and better.
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Post by mainesox on Dec 13, 2013 16:03:23 GMT -5
Their BABIPs and LOB%s are virtually identical, so there's really nothing to adjust there, but it sounds like what you're looking for is xFIP- (lower is better rather than higher): Greinke LesterSince 2006 81 89 Since 2007 81 88 Since 2008 80 87 Since 2009 79 85 Since 2010 81 89 Since 2011 80 93 Since 2012 85 95 Since 2013 91 98 Thanks. Is that generally accepted as the best stat to compare pitchers' performances removing bias and luck? There really isn't any one stat that's considered the best (generally it's best to look at a number of different stats), but as far as adjusting for all of the different factors out of a pitcher's control and trying to find the pitcher's context neutral talent, xFIP- probably goes the furthest (it adjusts for league and park, assumes a league average home run rate, and eliminates fielding [and therefor BABIP]).
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Post by jimed14 on Dec 13, 2013 16:07:38 GMT -5
SIERA is good too... www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/siera/Skill-Interactive ERA (SIERA) is the newest in a long line of ERA estimators. Like it’s predecessors FIP and xFIP, SIERA attempts to answer the question: what is the underlying skill level of this pitcher? How well did they actually pitch over the past year? Should their ERA have been higher, lower, or was it about right? But while FIP and xFIP largely ignore balls in play — they focus on strikeouts, walks, and homeruns instead — SIERA adds in complexity in an attempt to more accurately model what makes a pitcher successful. SIERA doesn’t ignore balls in play, but attempts to explain why certain pitchers are more successful at limiting hits and preventing runs. This is the strength of SIERA; while it is only slightly more predictive than xFIP, SIERA tells us more about the how and why of pitching. Greinke and Lester comp from 2009-2013 www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=c,4,5,11,7,8,13,-1,36,37,40,43,44,48,51,-1,6,45,62,-1,59,122&season=2013&month=0&season1=2009&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=4930,1943 Funny thing is i have made it clear Greinke is not an elite starter as far as I'm concerned and probably over-paid, but the market paid him. He's better then Lester though. One key point I keep forgetting to make is we are talking about extending Lester NOT signing him as a free agent. Huge difference. If Lester demands top dollar, the you let him go to free agency. Signing a year early is a big advantage for Lester that costs money. Protects versus injury and performance drops. It's money in hand before you're free to negotiate. Greinke was a free agent and better. Thanks for the stats lesson. Using Greinke as a relative starting point and factoring inflation, the year of security and that Lester is almost, but not quite as good, I think somewhere around 5/$100 to 6/$110 is fair right now, maybe 5/$90 if he'll take a discount.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 13, 2013 16:09:48 GMT -5
There's a pretty serious debate as to whether normalizing BABIP and LOB% is a feature or flaw of xFIP. Personally I prefer xFIP for a one-year sample, but over long periods prefer ERA+. xFIP will systemically underrate pitchers who are either able to supress BABIP as a skill (Matt Cain), or those with a skill for situational pitching (Tom Glavine). It will also overrate those like Javier Vazquez who, for whatever reason, consistently fail to match their peripherals. Greinke actually fell into the latter category for a couple years - he was struggling pitching from the stretch, which xFIP normalized away. So, while I think xFIP- actually exaggerates the difference between Lester and Greinke, there is no question that Greinke has been the superior pitcher consistently.
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Post by mainesox on Dec 13, 2013 16:14:43 GMT -5
There's a pretty serious debate as to whether normalizing BABIP and LOB% is a feature or flaw of xFIP. Personally I prefer xFIP for a one-year sample, but over long periods prefer ERA+. xFIP will systemically underrate pitchers who are either able to supress BABIP as a skill (Matt Cain), or those with a skill for situational pitching (Tom Glavine). It will also overrate those like Javier Vazquez who, for whatever reason, consistently fail to match their peripherals. Greinke actually fell into the latter category for a couple years - he was struggling pitching from the stretch, which xFIP normalized away. So, while I think xFIP- actually exaggerates the difference between Lester and Greinke, there is no question that Greinke has been the superior pitcher consistently. Yeah definitely agreed, that's why I mentioned that the best evaluation is one including multiple different stats because all of these stats have inherent flaws, and looking at several of them helps you see where some of them might be falling short of telling the whole story.
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Post by James Dunne on Dec 13, 2013 16:15:57 GMT -5
Yeah, wasn't trying to undermine you there, just giving a bit more background on why the two statistics might not agree.
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Post by oilcansman on Dec 13, 2013 16:49:55 GMT -5
Fair point, James. I wave the white flag. We'll see what the market says. I think everybody here is going to be surprised. Lester's a big game, power pitching lefty who, with the exception of one season, has done it in baseball's toughest market. It appears you guys have me on the statistical argument. BTW, I don't necessarily love Lester, and I don't advocate that the Sox give him Greinke money. I can respect a decision to trade him. Greinke is the comp. who I think will get Lester 6 years at 25 million per or more if Lester decides to do an Ellsbury and play it out. Does anybody really think the Yankees won't give Lester 6x25 or 7x25 next year?
The point of Greinke being a free agent when he got the deal is a good one, except that the market has gone up in general since Greinke did his deal. Therefore, a slight discount by Lester for signing one prior to free agency may be offset by the rising market. The only other interesting free agent pitcher in 2014 is Justin Masterson. BTW, Kershaw has no shot at seeing free agency. Dodgers will get in done.
The most interesting question is whether the Sox should hold on to him for 2014 even if they don't think they can sign him. I say no but there is a pretty good argument to get him for one more year.
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Dec 13, 2013 17:13:35 GMT -5
Thanks to all the posters. This thread is a perfect example why I love this site.
There is absolutely no doubt that If Lester has even a average Lester year, and decides to hit the market, He will get crazy money. I would not be surprised if the mfy hit 30x6.
I hope that the sox extend him and I believe they will.
Again, love this thread!
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Dec 13, 2013 17:14:17 GMT -5
It's always a good time when a poster calls another out for cherry picking stats then goes on to do the same. We're all part of the same hypocrisy.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 13, 2013 17:20:00 GMT -5
5/$90M? Holy cow, when did we become the Royals? Lester has been a Sox all his career, wants to remain that way, and has stated he's willing to take a discount. That should put him comfortably in the $20M/yr range, probably for 5 years or 6 with a club option if they want to let his agent talk it up a little. If he were a free agent, then I completely agree. This would be a viable contract with a slight hometown discount. But you have to remember, if the Red Sox give him a contract a year early, they are making a major risk (he is durable - but every pitcher is a risk) that Lester will suffer a major injury, or suffer a large drop in production, in order to save money on the overall contract. Also, the market is still at 2013 levels and hasn't reached 2014 levels yet (I would expect another 1-2 mil/yr to be tacked on as market inflation). The next free agent class will be good.....as of now. Remember we were talking about the Lincecum and Verlander markets, then life stepped in and made Timmy somewhat average and Verlander re-signed. The Tigers aren't spending and are purging contracts already so that they can re-sign Max, the Dodgers reportedly already offered $300M, and a few more on that market will probably do the same leaving slimmer pickings and driving the prices up for the remaining arms next year. Add to that we are already looking at replacing 2-3 starters from the current rotation after this year (depending on how this winter shakes out with trades, etc) and it's very unlikely that they they don't have something in the works with Lester very, very soon. It's likely that 1 or more of those guys sign prior to free agency, but the reports of their rebuffing the team's offers only makes it more likely that they will wait until free agency. (if you are Kershaw, and you saw the Yankees need for pitching, wouldn't you test the market?) I wouldn't be surprised if there is money burning a hole in a couple of teams' pockets and they are looking to spend $25/yr for Lester in some situations, but because there will be other options ahead of Lester, it is unlikely that the team(s) with the biggest pockets end-up with him (unless they double-dip of course). Keep in mind guys, at this time last year a lot of people were questioning whether the Red Sox should trade Lester, or if they should decline his affordable option. Now suddenly his rate skyrockets to $25/yr after a good, but not great, season? He's not an ace (aka Felix or Verlander when they signed their big deals) and he is going to be 30 by the time 2014 starts.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Dec 13, 2013 17:26:52 GMT -5
Fair point, James. I wave the white flag. We'll see what the market says. I think everybody here is going to be surprised. Lester's a big game, power pitching lefty who, with the exception of one season, has done it in baseball's toughest market. It appears you guys have me on the statistical argument. BTW, I don't necessarily love Lester, and I don't advocate that the Sox give him Greinke money. I can respect a decision to trade him. Greinke is the comp. who I think will get Lester 6 years at 25 million per or more if Lester decides to do an Ellsbury and play it out. Does anybody really think the Yankees won't give Lester 6x25 or 7x25 next year? The point of Greinke being a free agent when he got the deal is a good one, except that the market has gone up in general since Greinke did his deal. Therefore, a slight discount by Lester for signing one prior to free agency may be offset by the rising market. The only other interesting free agent pitcher in 2014 is Justin Masterson. I would rate Kershaw, Scherzer, Tanaka and Bailey ahead of Lester due to performance or youth. Masterson and Shields would be more-than-solid fallback guys. 2014 FA looks to be very interesting for teams looking for pitching. BTW, Kershaw has no shot at seeing free agency. Dodgers will get in done. Maybe - but if you think the Yankees will give Lester $25 mil a year, what would they give Kershaw? I think it would be dumb for him not to test free agency (of course if he gets hurt - I won't be the only one looking like an idiot).
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Post by ikonos on Dec 13, 2013 20:10:36 GMT -5
You cant look to give more money for less years for every contract and if you do, you are looking at breaching the cap. I think Lester benefited hugely with the return of Farrell and what ever Juan Neives did with him. His contract will be better than the 16m+ a year Beckett/Verlander got for their second contract and less than what cc/felix/verlander and possibly what kershaw/price will get. He is not a FA is an important part of this calculation and he is willing to take a slight discount to be in Boston.
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Post by umassgrad2005 on Dec 14, 2013 14:38:38 GMT -5
You can show me every statistic you have that you think shows Greinke is better and I still don't buy it. You leave out the eye test. If you need to win a game, who would you rather have starting for you? Lester all day long, it's not even close. All of your stats don't take into account that Lester plays in Boston, the second hardest city outside of New York to play in. Your stats don't take into account pressure a player gets in Boston. Lester is this generations Andy Pettitte. Is he one of the best 5-10 pitchers in the game? No, is he one of the best big game pitchers in the league? Yes. If you put Greinke in Boston, along with Lester, Lester would be the better pitcher.
For me this is like the debate about Edgar and Ortiz, consider the two best DH's of the last 15-20 years, if not ever. All the numbers give a slight edge to Edgar, but Ortiz's superhuman post seasons are why I think Ortiz is a much better player, he has three titles.
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Post by oilcansman on Dec 17, 2013 15:00:10 GMT -5
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Post by ray88h66 on Dec 17, 2013 15:16:05 GMT -5
Good to see Lester getting some love. I've posted for years in his defense. I notice his critics have stepped back. I still wouldn't give him a 7 year deal but it's good to see people giving him his props.
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