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Post by oilcansman on Jul 21, 2014 13:57:11 GMT -5
How does any team ever figure out how much to offer any free agent? There are some pretty smart people figuring things out other than gut feel and trying to quantify pitching savvy. A mix of supply/demand and speculation. The notion that teams will only spend what they must to maximize profit, which obviously is the most efficient formula, is routinely been blown out of the water in professional sports by owners that made their money elsewhere who treat their sports franchise like a expensive hobby. Alex Rodiguez was paid $100 million more than the next bidder by Tom Hicks. Just speculation. I wouldn't be shocked if the Sox lost Lester, panicked and gave James Shields 5x22. This is what I fear, which is why I would MUCH rather see the Sox spend big on a proven commodity that may, but is unlikely, to breakdown than spend less, but still pretty big, on an unproven commodity that may, but in unlikely, to breakdown.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 21, 2014 14:16:18 GMT -5
Other than the Yankees, most teams stick to something similar to a $/projected WAR value allowing for inflation for most players. The Yankees seemingly have to pay a huge premium for everyone to get them to go there. But I'm sure every single team does this and the ones who are bad at projecting or don't care as much about blowing past projections are the ones who offer the stupid contracts.
I don't think the Red Sox panic on anyone. They have a ton of pitching that are ready for ML starts. RDLR is a pleasant surprise. Owens looks real.
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Post by suttree on Jul 21, 2014 16:30:03 GMT -5
The economics of the game are very convoluted. For one thing, baseball isn't a real business. It's an entertainment monopoly. The labor in this monopoly is unionized, except for the vast numbers of entry level workers (minor leaguers). Infrastructure is heavily subsidized by public money. Baseball teams also have the peculiar power to trade their workers with other teams. Imagine if you worked for Microsoft and one day they said, hey, you now work for Dell, here is your plane ticket.
The structure of arbitration and pre-arb was a compromise to get free agency in the first place, and to keep talent scarce to inflate salaries (Miller's idea). Really though, pre-arb is unnecessary and unfair. Maybe 3 years of arbitration and then FA would be better, or just do away with team control completely and give every player the right to sign a real contract. The economics of sports are a mess. I like the relegation/promotion system in English Football, a completely decentralized system where teams move up and down leagues based on performance and any bunch of guys could theoretically form a team, enter at the bottom rung, then methodically climb the ladder each year all the way to the premier league if they were good enough and had the right facilities/attendance.
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Post by godot on Jul 21, 2014 16:41:54 GMT -5
You nailed that, an entertainment monopoly and one that is often subsidized, which is why it bugs me when people use the "value" talk. Value to who? What about value for us fans who foot the bill in many ways.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 21, 2014 16:51:44 GMT -5
relative value to MLB
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 21, 2014 17:04:29 GMT -5
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Post by Guidas on Jul 21, 2014 17:41:26 GMT -5
Well some credit, anyway. excerpt: A big part of good framing is good command, because it’s hard to frame a pitch thrown somewhere other than where it’s expected, but the bigger message is this: presuming the Red Sox know what’s what with regard to contemporary player analysis, the team might have a better understanding of Ross’ value than Lester….By no means is my point that Jon Lester isn’t good. By no means is my point that Jon Lester owes a lot of his statistical success to David Ross. This is a smaller factor, but it’s a bigger factor than it usually is, and it could be a big part of the reason why the sides remain separated.
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Post by terriblehondo on Jul 21, 2014 18:25:47 GMT -5
All I know is if Gammons is right and 6 years 106 million would have got it done the Sox made a huge mistake.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 21, 2014 18:29:03 GMT -5
All I know is if Gammons is right and 6 years 106 million would have got it done the Sox made a huge mistake. I highly doubt he is right... Thats the same AAV (i think) as their first offer which everyone got all pissy about with just two more years.... So no I think Gammons is wrong
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 21, 2014 18:33:17 GMT -5
Lester joked around the time of the Scherzer offer that was a good offer or something to that effect. I think it will cost 6/144 to keep him. Seriously, doubt if we keep him at this point.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 22, 2014 10:53:40 GMT -5
Peter Gammons ?@pgammo 3m
GM:"Don't expect hometown discount deals with a Lester, or almost anyone. The union is more involved in contracts than anytime in years...
Peter Gammons ?@pgammo 3m
@pgammo and they are driving them for the greater good of all players"
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 22, 2014 11:39:03 GMT -5
Peter Gammons ?@pgammo 3m GM:"Don't expect hometown discount deals with a Lester, or almost anyone. The union is more involved in contracts than anytime in years... Peter Gammons ?@pgammo 3m @pgammo and they are driving them for the greater good of all players" The greater good of all 9-figure contract players. Let me know when they fight to raise MLB minimum or expand the 25-man rosters.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 23, 2014 22:17:24 GMT -5
With Tampa rolling off a huge wining streak, price may be off the block.
Cherrington may have a huge opportunity for a super return by parting with Lester bybjuly 31.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jul 24, 2014 7:41:34 GMT -5
At least listen for Lester ,Lackey, Miller,Koji,Breslow,Bandenhop ,Peavy. I think Felix is someone you might do in the offseason.
I think it was a waste for Britton in AAA. He did pretty good for the Sox last year and he ends up in AAA. He probably wasn't as motivated . Even though that is not an excuse. I also wonder about Alex Wilson if he gets a shot in the bullpen or gets traded. Between this year and next year we are gonn have a different Red Sox team.
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Post by raftsox on Jul 24, 2014 7:43:41 GMT -5
Lester joked around the time of the Scherzer offer that was a good offer or something to that effect. I think it will cost 6/144 to keep him. Seriously, doubt if we keep him at this point. He joked on a podcast with Speier in spring training that it would only take $1 more than Pedroia's extension.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jul 24, 2014 7:51:42 GMT -5
The biggest joke was the Red Sox waiting until the end of Spring Training and then only offering Lester 4 years and $ 70 million. He is as good as gone at this point as there is no way that the Red Sox will come close to offering what teams like the MFYs,Tigers, Rangers, Dodgers, etc will offer him once he hits free agency. The Red Sox should save themselves the embarrassment of any possible media spin that they made their best efforts to sign Lester and trade him between now and July 31.
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Post by jmei on Jul 24, 2014 8:03:05 GMT -5
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 24, 2014 8:16:56 GMT -5
I don't get the sense that any teams are desperate to win. The playoffs are such a crapshoot. Getting Lester and giving up very good cost-controlled talent doesn't seem to be a priority for anyone. Maybe, the two LA teams.
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 24, 2014 8:21:03 GMT -5
You don't get that sense, huh? Been talking to your sources in the game have you?
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 24, 2014 8:29:38 GMT -5
You don't get that sense, huh? Been talking to your sources in the game have you? No. Just from reading writers like; Olney and Rosenthal. Watching the analysts on MLB Network and ESPN.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 24, 2014 8:36:48 GMT -5
You don't get that sense, huh? Been talking to your sources in the game have you? No. Just from reading writers like; Olney and Rosenthal. Watching the analysts on MLB Network and ESPN. Outside of Oakland I would agree, I could think of a couple of teams I am a little surprised haven't made a big move yet. If I have a chance to win, I don't wouldn't want that chance to rest on a 1 game wildcard. Anyways, I don't think saying "I get the sense" in anyway is trying to represent inside knowledge. He was clearly giving his opinion.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 24, 2014 8:48:47 GMT -5
Brian MacPherson ?@brianmacp 7m Per @bostonherald, John Henry says that the Red Sox won't talk contract with Jon Lester again until after the season.
John Leary ?@greenlineoutfit 10m If the Sox don't move Lester before the deadline, I'm going to assume that they're prepared to compete with the market this off-season.
Marc Normandin ?@marc_Normandin 7m What @greenlineoutfit said. If they're planning on sticking to a sub-$100 million offer they know won't work, they'd deal him.
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Post by burythehammer on Jul 24, 2014 8:49:56 GMT -5
It's a week before the trade deadline. Every team is going to downplay everything to guys like Olney and Rosenthal. And pretty much every year at least a few significant deals get done (despite being dead, alive, dead, and then magically rekindled right before the deadline)
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Post by jmei on Jul 24, 2014 9:09:09 GMT -5
Here's the decision tree for the "should they trade Lester" question:
The only way it makes sense to keep Lester is if they think they have a high chance of re-signing Lester and/or if they think the team is still in contention. I'm pretty pessimistic on both those fronts, so I'd trade Lester. Based on quotes from Farrell and Cherington post-ASB, it sounds like the front office is pretty realistic and will sell pieces if they think the 2014 team is dead in the water, so I'd think any hesitancy to trade Lester would mostly derive from optimism about the chances of re-signing him after the season.
(The same decision tree can be applied to Uehara, btw, with similar results.)
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 24, 2014 9:26:09 GMT -5
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