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Possible extension for Lester
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Post by Guidas on Jul 28, 2014 21:33:38 GMT -5
If reports were true that they could've had him in March for "Homer Bailey's deal plus a dollar" - i.e. $105,000,001 for 6 years, then I am going on the record that letting him go and not getting what will be at least 1, controllable 4WAR a year ave player in return, then letting him go will have been a big mistake.
I am basing this prediction in part on Lester's body of work and durability for the Sox, but mostly on the twin pillars of his body type and his own admission that during that last year he learned how to "pitch more and throw less." I think he is going to age well enough to exceed $17.5M in value over his first three years (and the $22M per year market value price he'll command) and earn roughly $17.5 in value in year 4. I also submit that year 5 & 6 will be more affordable under the Bailey plus a buck deal than they would currently appear given the significant inflation in top of the market starters' pay has undergone in the last 5 years (see, Lackey, Jon) and projecting that forward.
So, short of getting a 4+ WAR a year controllable (let's say 4 years of control or more) player in this upcoming trade (ie an above ave MLB performer, not 2, 2 WAR guys), OR doing that AND somehow resigning Lester for $22M a year or less for 5 years (highly unlikely) my personal belief is the Sox have badly misplayed this and will regret it in retrospect. In three years, that $105M plus a buck will look like a relative bargain.
As always with negative predictions, I hope I am very, very wrong.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jul 28, 2014 22:22:38 GMT -5
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 29, 2014 11:18:08 GMT -5
Clemens was one of the best pitchers in the league from 1994 to 1996. 1993 was a legitimate down year (though not nearly as bad as Lester's 2012), but the next three years hurt perception of him because people still didn't understand that W-L record was dumb. He had a 142 ERA+ and a K/9 rate of 9.1. Unfortunately, those 1994 and '96 teams weren't very good and Clemens was only 29-25. Lester has a 155 ERA+ this season, but since the start of last year it is 123 which really seems like the number more indicative of his talent. He's not Roger Clemens.
Instead of extreme cases like Clemens or Pedro Martinez, Lester is most likely to follow a traditional career arc of someone like Bruce Hurst. After Hurst left Boston for San Diego, he had three more good seasons, one ok one, and then was basically finished.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2014 11:33:41 GMT -5
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 29, 2014 11:34:40 GMT -5
If reports were true that they could've had him in March for "Homer Bailey's deal plus a dollar" - i.e. $105,000,001 for 6 years, then I am going on the record that letting him go and not getting what will be at least 1, controllable 4WAR a year ave player in return, then letting him go will have been a big mistake. I really don't buy the Homer Bailey deal plus a dollar though, I have a tough time believing he would've accepted such a low AAV over 6 years given his age. What I don't get is why they didn't just go with a very fair 5 for 110 offer, which is still a discount, but a lot of money. It's not like they needed to play hardball- that's the aspect thats most frustrating about the whole thing, it really should've been resolved a long time ago, unless all of us are way off on our estimates of what Lester is asking for.
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Post by Gwell55 on Jul 29, 2014 11:45:16 GMT -5
If reports were true that they could've had him in March for "Homer Bailey's deal plus a dollar" - i.e. $105,000,001 for 6 years, then I am going on the record that letting him go and not getting what will be at least 1, controllable 4WAR a year ave player in return, then letting him go will have been a big mistake. I really don't buy the Homer Bailey deal plus a dollar though, I have a tough time believing he would've accepted such a low AAV over 6 years given his age. What I don't get is why they didn't just go with a very fair 5 for 110 offer, which is still a discount, but a lot of money. It's not like they needed to play hardball- that's the aspect thats most frustrating about the whole thing, it really should've been resolved a long time ago, unless all of us are way off on our estimates of what Lester is asking for.This is probably the most likely case presented on this thread. It wouldn't surprise me to learn that Lester's side informally stated he was worth 6 at Greinke money so their discount would be 6 at 145 or something ridiculous like that.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 29, 2014 11:50:24 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure the union means business in regards to Lester not taking a discount.
And not only that, but I also bet the union wants him to sign a contract that is indicative of this season alone, not the two prior seasons. Which puts him around the Zach Greinke deal + inflation.
In other words, a massive overpay that he would never come close to being worthy of. I guess we'll find out.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 29, 2014 13:35:43 GMT -5
Part of me also wonders if they already agreed to a deal that is more than the Red Sox want to pay and in return for that, Lester goes along with getting traded before coming back after the season.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 29, 2014 13:37:11 GMT -5
That sounds illegal and very unethical.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 29, 2014 13:44:39 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure the union means business in regards to Lester not taking a discount. And not only that, but I also bet the union wants him to sign a contract that is indicative of this season alone, not the two prior seasons. Which puts him around the Zach Greinke deal + inflation. In other words, a massive overpay that he would never come close to being worthy of. I guess we'll find out. Where's all the union stuff coming from? I buy it, cause it makes a lot of sense, but a quick google search hasn't shown me anything. Is this just people making assumptions or is there some kind of source? Regardless, I think they can only exert so much pressure- and it really doesn't matter whether the union wants him to be paid based only on this season, teams are going to use the past 2 against him in negotiations regardless, so he won't get a deal that treats this past year like the only one that matters, unless the market dictates that he does (which is of course entirely possible- only takes one idiot)
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Post by raftsox on Jul 29, 2014 13:45:20 GMT -5
Buster Olney is ESPN's equivalent to the mouthbreathers of WEEI call-in radio.
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Post by raftsox on Jul 29, 2014 13:47:10 GMT -5
I really don't buy the Homer Bailey deal plus a dollar though, I have a tough time believing he would've accepted such a low AAV over 6 years given his age. What I don't get is why they didn't just go with a very fair 5 for 110 offer, which is still a discount, but a lot of money. It's not like they needed to play hardball- that's the aspect thats most frustrating about the whole thing, it really should've been resolved a long time ago, unless all of us are way off on our estimates of what Lester is asking for.This is probably the most likely case presented on this thread. It wouldn't surprise me to learn that Lester's side informally stated he was worth 6 at Greinke money so their discount would be 6 at 145 or something ridiculous like that. He's already said on live air that he would take $1 more than the Pedroia extension (Speier, in Spring Training).
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 29, 2014 13:54:47 GMT -5
I'm pretty sure the union means business in regards to Lester not taking a discount. And not only that, but I also bet the union wants him to sign a contract that is indicative of this season alone, not the two prior seasons. Which puts him around the Zach Greinke deal + inflation. In other words, a massive overpay that he would never come close to being worthy of. I guess we'll find out. Where's all the union stuff coming from? I buy it, cause it makes a lot of sense, but a quick google search hasn't shown me anything. Is this just people making assumptions or is there some kind of source? Regardless, I think they can only exert so much pressure- and it really doesn't matter whether the union wants him to be paid based only on this season, teams are going to use the past 2 against him in negotiations regardless, so he won't get a deal that treats this past year like the only one that matters, unless the market dictates that he does (which is of course entirely possible- only takes one idiot) There was a source. Having trouble finding it now. Probably in this thread somewhere.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 29, 2014 13:55:04 GMT -5
This is probably the most likely case presented on this thread. It wouldn't surprise me to learn that Lester's side informally stated he was worth 6 at Greinke money so their discount would be 6 at 145 or something ridiculous like that. He's already said on live air that he would take $1 more than the Pedroia extension (Speier, in Spring Training). Don't buy it. Pedey signed for 7/100. If he meant that, they would've worked out a deal already. There's no way the Sox aren't willing to go to $100m for him, even if its not over 7 years
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Post by Gwell55 on Jul 29, 2014 14:07:40 GMT -5
This is probably the most likely case presented on this thread. It wouldn't surprise me to learn that Lester's side informally stated he was worth 6 at Greinke money so their discount would be 6 at 145 or something ridiculous like that. He's already said on live air that he would take $1 more than the Pedroia extension (Speier, in Spring Training). Didn't he also say the union was pressuring him to keep it real. I would think the difference is what his agents are telling the sox and what the media is getting feed might be substantially different. Just today they refused to comment on there contract proposals so there is that too. IMO Levinson is pushing for more money and advising Lester to keep going for free agency and more and more unless he told them like Varitek to only negotiate with the Sox which doesn't seem likely. The union pressure Lester spoke of could also be factored in with what Levinson is pushing also.
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Post by raftsox on Jul 29, 2014 14:55:14 GMT -5
He's already said on live air that he would take $1 more than the Pedroia extension (Speier, in Spring Training). Don't buy it. Pedey signed for 7/100. If he meant that, they would've worked out a deal already. There's no way the Sox aren't willing to go to $100m for him, even if its not over 7 years Don't buy it all you want, but those were his words. There's nothing that says that (possibly farcicle) extension hasn't changed, however.
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Post by Deleted on Jul 29, 2014 15:01:50 GMT -5
Simple question that cuts through all the b.s. and speculation - How much risk is there that Lester injures himself/implodes between now and the end of the season in a way that damages his free agent value? The man has missed perhaps one start since the 2007 WS. With essentially zero incentive to sign a deal prior to free agency, he's simply not going to resign prior to the end of the season. The Red Sox had their shot. They not only blew it but managed to throw away all the goodwill that existed in the afterglow of this last WS. This thing is done. Stick a fork in it. The Sox will get another chance during free agency but Lester's skyrocketing value is going to quickly put the kibosh on that.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 29, 2014 15:03:46 GMT -5
Don't buy it. Pedey signed for 7/100. If he meant that, they would've worked out a deal already. There's no way the Sox aren't willing to go to $100m for him, even if its not over 7 years Don't buy it all you want, but those were his words. There's nothing that says that (possibly farcicle) extension hasn't changed, however. Yea they were his words... so wheres the contract? If he meant that, this thread would've ended 30 pages ago. Theres no way he was ever taking that deal
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Post by Gwell55 on Jul 29, 2014 15:07:31 GMT -5
Don't buy it. Pedey signed for 7/100. If he meant that, they would've worked out a deal already. There's no way the Sox aren't willing to go to $100m for him, even if its not over 7 years Don't buy it all you want, but those were his words. There's nothing that says that (possibly farcicle) extension hasn't changed, however. Last january you mean when he was talking about this to the media "“I’ve never been the type of guy to take more money from somebody else to suck. I don’t want to do that. That’s no fun. I want to win, and if that means taking a Dustin Pedroia deal, to take less money to be happy and competitive and win every year, let’s do it,” Lester said, referencing the eight-year, $110 million extension that his teammate signed during the 2013 season. However, Lester acknowledged that the lucrative deals and extensions signed by starting pitchers this offseason are difficult to ignore. Along with this: “It’s hard not to pay attention to it,” the pitcher said. “As a player, it’s good for baseball, obviously being in this situation that I’m in right now, you can’t help but notice it and wonder and think and talk. You never want to be the guy that takes the market backwards. With the way the game’s gone over the past couple years with TV deals and revenue, you’re just going to see those deals creep up.” Well that seems to me he acknowledged a SLIGHT advantage for the sox to get it done but if you read the lines it doesn't say for sure and it does acknowledge outside (union) pressure will push to screw it up. So there is more than one interpretation as to what IS happening here. fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2014/01/23/jon-lester-says-he-wants-a-dustin-pedroia-deal-to-stay-with-red-sox/
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 29, 2014 15:14:53 GMT -5
Don't buy it. Pedey signed for 7/100. If he meant that, they would've worked out a deal already. There's no way the Sox aren't willing to go to $100m for him, even if its not over 7 years Don't buy it all you want, but those were his words. There's nothing that says that (possibly farcicle) extension hasn't changed, however. Maybe he meant 3/100,000,001
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Post by kmann on Jul 29, 2014 15:36:08 GMT -5
Deep down I do not believe Lester's desire to return to Boston at a hometown discount is sincere. If he truly wants to return and is willing to take less money, I think he could make this happen rather quickly. Something like what Tek did when Boras and Theo dragged negotiations past Christmas. Bottom line, I imagine Lester's hometown discount is not much of a discount.
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 29, 2014 15:46:04 GMT -5
Nick Cafardo ?@nickcafardo 5m Red Sox have never received a figure from the Jon Lester side on what it would have taken to sign him according to a source. Too late now.
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Post by raftsox on Jul 29, 2014 15:50:41 GMT -5
Don't buy it all you want, but those were his words. There's nothing that says that (possibly farcicle) extension hasn't changed, however. Yea they were his words... so wheres the contract? If he meant that, this thread would've ended 30 pages ago. Theres no way he was ever taking that deal He may have and he may not have. Lester has been sincere in his desire to NOT discuss his contract during the season, and the front office made their lowball offer towards the end of the season. None of us know for certain if Lester would have taken the Pedroia or Homer Bailey contract + $1 in Spring Training; we can only speculate based on the comments he's made because that contract extension was never extended to him. At this point I think Lester wants a fair contract that he may reduce somewhat for a "hometown discount". To make numbers simple let's assume from 2015 on Lester's WAR prediction is: 5,4,3.5,3,3,2.5,2. That's a total of 22 WAR over the next 7 seasons at today's rate of ~$6.5MM/WAR, or $143MM. Now, you could probably sign him today for 6/144 (ie, Cole Hamels contract), or you could get a slight discount in either years or $ at the same length; making the likely contract 5/130 or 6/130. That's a 10% discount in dollars per season or a discount of 1 season.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 29, 2014 16:12:52 GMT -5
And let us not forget inflation. Look at Lackey's contract 5 years ago, factor in the recent deals including the mad money paid to Bailey - which, like it or not, is a market yardstick - then add in higher revenue streams coming into the sport and the ever present stupid owner who is willing to pay EVEN MORE!!! and a 2.5 WAR free agent starter looks like about a $15+M proposition or more by 2019.
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Post by James Dunne on Jul 29, 2014 16:23:32 GMT -5
Nick Cafardo ?@nickcafardo 5m Red Sox have never received a figure from the Jon Lester side on what it would have taken to sign him according to a source. It begins. T-minus 60 hours to discussion of Jon Lester's cell phone habits, religious beliefs, marital status, and/or affinity for chicken is on page C1 of the Globe.
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