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The Anthony Ranaudo Thread: A Tale of Two Seasons
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 5, 2014 18:47:05 GMT -5
As you can see from this thread and the Allen Webster thread, I don’t feel like dealing with the freezing cold this weekend and decided to spend it on my couch looking at game logs. Anthony Ranaudo had a bounce back year in 2013. After throwing 37.2 injury plagued innings in 2012, Ranaudo came back this season with 140 innings split between AA and AAA. His overall line was very good: 2.96 ERA, 1.14 WHIP. Just over 8 K/9 and an okay walk rate of 8.3% (3.02 BB/9). Most of us recognize that Ranaudo started off the year strong and then faded. At mid-season he was one of Baseball America’s top 50 prospects. It is easy to look at his AA and AAA numbers and think his fade started with his promotion and his AA numbers are representative of how good he was to start the year. The truth is, Ranaudo had a very sudden decline around the third week in June after throwing 73 innings with the Sea Dogs. After his June 19 start, Ranaudo had the following line on the season: 73 IP 82 K 47 H 23 BB ---- 2.34 ERA .96 WHIP 29% K% 8% BB% To put that in perspective, only one qualified MLB starter had a K% over 29% last year (Darvish). To that point, Ranaudo had put up elite level performance. According to soxprospects.com scouting reports Ranaudo was throwing 92-94 and topping out at about 96 MPH. At that point there was a sudden drop in performance. Most notably, Ranaudo’s K% took a sudden nosedive – from 29% to 16% (post 6/19 start including AA and AAA numbers). His BB% stayed consistent, but his hit rate spiked. In the 75 innings that followed that June 19 start, Ranaudo saw his ERA spike to 3.84 and his WHIP spike to 1.36. The graph below shows Ranaudo's 4 start rolling K% throughout the season.  The interesting thing about Ranaudo is that it is very easy to see what happened. According to an article by our own Matt Huegel at ESPNBoston.com, Ranaudo’s fastball dropped to 89-91 by the end of the season. This makes sense on a number of levels. First, the likely cause of the numbers was that he wasn’t getting his fastball by hitters. Therefor many of those strikeouts were turning into hits. It also makes sense that he may have tired after 73 innings – a jump of 35 innings from the previous season. So what does this mean for Ranaudo’s prospect status? This season will tell us a lot, and there are a few specific things to look for. 1.) Is Ranaudo throwing 92-94 to start the season? I think this is important to confirming he doesn’t have an injury that could linger from last year. 2.) Can he maintain that velocity past the 100-120 IP mark? If he can do this, I believe the odds of Ranaudo achieving his ceiling will increase significantly. If not, I think it becomes far more likely that he projects to be a reliever. What do you think of Ranaudo? Can he sustain his first half success last year for a full season? Or will he continue to flash elite performance, but not sustain it? |
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Post by Don Caballero on Jan 5, 2014 18:51:57 GMT -5
If healthy he's the best pitching prospect in our system based solely on physical tools. Not so sure about his stuff, but I think he'll get there. The main thing with him is conditioning and health.
Fantastic thread, btw.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jan 5, 2014 19:06:04 GMT -5
Agreed, another great thread. As you can see from this thread and the Allen Webster thread, I don’t feel like dealing with the freezing cold this weekend and decided to spend it on my couch looking at game logs. Maybe you need a girlfriend or a wife or something (like a toddler).  In all seriousness, I think he simply tired. But we'll find this year hopefully |
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 5, 2014 19:28:19 GMT -5
Agreed, another great thread. As you can see from this thread and the Allen Webster thread, I don’t feel like dealing with the freezing cold this weekend and decided to spend it on my couch looking at game logs. Maybe you need a girlfriend or a wife or something (like a toddler). In all seriousness, I think he simply tired. But we'll find this year hopefully Haha. Luckily, I'm happily married with a wife who is six months from getting her Phd... so I have a lot of time to myself. |
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jan 5, 2014 19:33:03 GMT -5
"What do you think of Ranaudo? Can he sustain his first half success last year for a full season? Or will he continue to flash elite performance, but not sustain it?"
I'm not sure, can Lester?
Or how about Buck?
This is typical variation.
I like his stuff and more importantly his approach.
I think he gets it now.
I expect with the typical injury expectations he will contribute this year and maybe even be a post season starter in 2014.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jan 5, 2014 19:52:26 GMT -5
Well done top post.
It's been my feeling or at least hope all along that it was just a case of his arm tiring and that he was more or less continuing on to build arm strength.
I really can't say I have a basis for that either way. I listened to several of his games but they were all early in the year. I pretty much knew that the speculation posted here while he was on his hot streak was way off the mark. For the most part he was a three pitch pitcher with the change needing a lot of work but not awful. He also seemed to have his great curve working and was keeping the fastball down.
As you said, we will know pretty early on. If he has his fastball at the start of the season, he should once again dominate with that dominance lasting longer into the season. If not, we are likely to see another development year lost to health issues.
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Post by jmei on Jan 5, 2014 20:55:24 GMT -5
That velocity/K% analysis is great. I was very unimpressed with his stuff when I saw him a few times towards the end of 2013, and this makes me much more optimistic about his future. His fastball looked very ordinary to me, and I don't remember him getting more than a handful of swings and misses on it, which had me very down on him (I had him below Webster and Barnes). If that's more due to fatigue, and he can gain a few tics of velocity and/or rise with further development, it would change my opinion of him greatly.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jan 5, 2014 22:42:25 GMT -5
Chavopepe-
That's a very good overview of the prospect.
I worry more about the dip in velocity because of his history. For the most part he's been the pitcher that he was in the second half either because of injury or fatigue. If I had to pick a prospect who will bust in 2014, it would be him.
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Post by ancientsoxfogey on Jan 6, 2014 7:50:17 GMT -5
Ranaudo is 24 years old -- no spring chicken anymore. His development has been delayed/sidetracked, yes. But how long can the organization spend trying to get him ramped up to being "all that he can be" as a starter before it becomes indefensible? Maybe he's the type of guy, physical appearance aside, whose arm simply can't hold up to the rigors of being a major league starter.
If he can't show staying power in 2014 does the club need to move him to the pen?
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Post by brianthetaoist on Jan 6, 2014 9:57:13 GMT -5
Ranaudo is 24 years old -- no spring chicken anymore. His development has been delayed/sidetracked, yes. But how long can the organization spend trying to get him ramped up to being "all that he can be" as a starter before it becomes indefensible? Maybe he's the type of guy, physical appearance aside, whose arm simply can't hold up to the rigors of being a major league starter. If he can't show staying power in 2014 does the club need to move him to the pen? Well, he's had two years of injury-related problems with very different injuries (one of them in college), and he was only just added to the 40-man this offseason. So there's plenty of time to figure this out ... |
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 6, 2014 13:15:24 GMT -5
Great breakdown chavopepe2! I really enjoyed the breakdown of the player and it is much more clear why there is so much debate between him, Webster, Owens and Barnes between all the prospect lists right now. I don't think any one list is wrong or right, just a matter of opinion on those stud prospects.
I think with all the development time that Ranaudo has lost that this upcoming year will be the make or break to decide where the rest of his career will head.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jan 6, 2014 14:37:30 GMT -5
Agreed, another great thread. As you can see from this thread and the Allen Webster thread, I don’t feel like dealing with the freezing cold this weekend and decided to spend it on my couch looking at game logs. Maybe you need a girlfriend or a wife or something (like a toddler). In all seriousness, I think he simply tired. But we'll find this year hopefully Sorry. Had to bust you on this. I wish I had that time. Enjoy this now while you can. |
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Post by JackieWilsonsaid on Jan 6, 2014 14:58:41 GMT -5
Listening to the podcast it doesn't sound like there are many believers.
I do think this is the time for Renaudio to emerge.
It looks like the strict plan for all the aaa guys this year may be cut loose to a degree.
Adding the cutter may be the way to go here.
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Post by sarasoxer on Jan 6, 2014 18:12:29 GMT -5
Saw him in Portland mid 2012 and was disappointed. Before the game in which Ranaudo was to pitch I talked with someone who professed to be in the Sox organization. {Can I be more vague?  ...}He was pretty enthusiastic about Ranaudo. He said that he had grown an inch over the winter to 6'8" and was now throwing 96-97. Then, unfortunately the game started. I recall that he was 90-91 with maybe a couple at 92. He was also conspicuously wild and was pulled in the 4th. On that day I don't think that many would have regarded him as a prospect. |
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jan 6, 2014 19:50:11 GMT -5
Trey Ball ahead of Ranaudo makes me cringe a bit. Absolutely love the love for Vazquez though. Ball and Webster are the only two true possible top of the rotation starters that we have in the system right now. Ranaudo has had a healthy year followed by an injured year every year so far. I think Ranaudo is starting to be viewed as a future back of the bullpen arm and that reduces his potential impact. When I listened to Speier over a couple podcasts, he noted that compared to Owens and Barnes... Ranaudo doesn't miss many bats with his fastball. He thinks that this will translate towards him not being able to be a starter in the majors and will be a bullpen arm. He noted Webster and Ranaudo as the two most likely to end up in the bullpen out of our top pitching prospects (for different reasons). That's not a terrible thing as Papelbon was a starter when he first got called up to the Sox. He also noted that RDLR was well on his way to being better than what Workman could be before his injury. He expects RDLR to make a big leap this year since he is a year out from Tommy John and if he does that he is a more dominant pitcher than Workman as either a starter or relief pitcher. I just wanted to comment on the bolded point, because I think that perception does exist and the truth is if you only saw him after June 18, its probably true. If you are basing your rankings on opinions from people that saw him after that point point I have no doubt that will influence how he is ranked... ...but I don't think that is who Ranaudo is. Look at this excerpt from Ian Cundall's write-up on 4/17: ... or from Jon Meoli on 5/13: Or Ian Cundall on 3/28: And looking again at some of the numbers from the original post in this thread: Ranaudo K% through June 18: 29% MiLB Season Stats: Owens: 31% Barnes: 28% Webster: 27% Workman: 26% |
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 6, 2014 20:05:07 GMT -5
Ball and Webster are the only two true possible top of the rotation starters that we have in the system right now. Ranaudo has had a healthy year followed by an injured year every year so far. I think Ranaudo is starting to be viewed as a future back of the bullpen arm and that reduces his potential impact. When I listened to Speier over a couple podcasts, he noted that compared to Owens and Barnes... Ranaudo doesn't miss many bats with his fastball. He thinks that this will translate towards him not being able to be a starter in the majors and will be a bullpen arm. He noted Webster and Ranaudo as the two most likely to end up in the bullpen out of our top pitching prospects (for different reasons). That's not a terrible thing as Papelbon was a starter when he first got called up to the Sox. He also noted that RDLR was well on his way to being better than what Workman could be before his injury. He expects RDLR to make a big leap this year since he is a year out from Tommy John and if he does that he is a more dominant pitcher than Workman as either a starter or relief pitcher. I just wanted to comment on the bolded point, because I think that perception does exist and the truth is if you only saw him after June 18, its probably true. If you are basing your rankings on opinions from people that saw him after that point point I have no doubt that will influence how he is ranked... ...but I don't think that is who Ranaudo is. Look at this excerpt from Ian Cundall's write-up on 4/17: ... or from Jon Meoli on 5/13: Or Ian Cundall on 3/28: And looking again at some of the numbers from the original post in this thread: Ranaudo K% through June 18: 29% MiLB Season Stats: Owens: 31% Barnes: 28% Webster: 27% Workman: 26% I am only responded to the Red text. The podcasts were both an hour each and would be difficult to time stamp it for you. I didn't see him pitch and it was Speier talking to Callis. He also spoke about Ranaudo on podcast 49 on this site. news.soxprospects.com/2013/12/soxprospectscom-podcast-49-alex-speier.htmlSpeier said that he has seen Ranaudo pitch a number of times. He didn't say when. He spoke about his injury history and said that the majority of his strikeouts come on his curve ball and not his fastball. He said that Barnes has a fastball that will play up in the majors as he gets a lot of swings and misses with it in the strike zone as well as Owens. He said Webster was in a world all by his own with his fastball if he can actually locate it. He indicated something along the lines of Ranaudo getting strikeouts with his fastball above the letters and high in the zone and he was worried about guys at the higher levels not swinging at that pitch. It wasn't his fastball velocity, it was that he wasn't getting a high enough swings and misses in the zone that was voiced and he said it was more apparent when he lost velocity at the end of the season last year. |
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Post by dewey1972 on Jan 6, 2014 22:47:36 GMT -5
Great post. The velocity drop, especially given his previously light workloads, makes a lot of sense. In response to the idea that at 24, "he's no spring chicken", while it's true, I don't think it matters too much. Given the wealth of other young pitchers and the full staff for this year, there's plenty of time to let him build up his strength (if that's what's needed).
Someone also mentioned the cutter. It certainly could help, but if chavopepe2's theory is right, I'm not sure it's vital. It's obviously better to have three strong pitches as a starter, but we've seen a few starters with two pitches have significant success lately, as long as the non-fastball is a changeup or a curve, since those pitches have smaller platoon splits. Last year A.J. Burnett threw his fastball or his curve over 93% of the time, and Wacha threw his fastball or changeup over 92% of the time. If Ranaudo's fastball velocity is back up and is as effective as it seems it was, and his curveball is as good as it seems, he might be able to be a quality starter with just those two pitches.
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Post by patrmac04 on Jan 6, 2014 23:31:28 GMT -5
Great post. The velocity drop, especially given his previously light workloads, makes a lot of sense. In response to the idea that at 24, "he's no spring chicken", while it's true, I don't think it matters too much. Given the wealth of other young pitchers and the full staff for this year, there's plenty of time to let him build up his strength (if that's what's needed). Someone also mentioned the cutter. It certainly could help, but if chavopepe2's theory is right, I'm not sure it's vital. It's obviously better to have three strong pitches as a starter, but we've seen a few starters with two pitches have significant success lately, as long as the non-fastball is a changeup or a curve, since those pitches have smaller platoon splits. Last year A.J. Burnett threw his fastball or his curve over 93% of the time, and Wacha threw his fastball or changeup over 92% of the time. If Ranaudo's fastball velocity is back up and is as effective as it seems it was, and his curveball is as good as it seems, he might be able to be a quality starter with just those two pitches. I like your assessment that Ranaudo could get by with two pitches, but if you see what I noted in the previous post... Speier worries that his fastball is not good enough to get enough swings and misses in the zone as a starting pitcher in the majors. I think when we combine his decent control, injury history along with age and stunted progress... I think it is a 50/50 shot at this point that he ultimately does end up in the pen. With a knockout pitch like his curve ball and the ability to ramp up for shorter periods of time with his fastball, I think he has the makeup to be a quality closer or back of the bullpen arm. He is a competitor and seems to have the fire, but his body can't keep up with the rigors of starting pitching so far. I hope his second half of last year was not an indicator of a further injury... but just him getting tired. I'm not sure how recent this scouting report on Ranaudo is on this site, but it seems like he has a lot of work to do for a 24 year old to be a starter and reach his potential. Does this scream out bullpen arm to anyone else besides his body type? It is marred with inconsistency and those are the guys who end up in the pen IMO. soxprospects.com/players/ranaudo-anthony.htmScouting Report: Was considered the top pitcher in the entire draft class and the second-best overall draft prospect heading into the 2010 season after going 12-3 with a 3.04 ERA and striking out 159 batters in 124.1 innings in 2009 while leading LSU to a national championship. Fell to the Red Sox due to a poor junior season. Has frame to withstand the rigors of starting at the professional level. High 3/4 arm slot. Fastball sits 92-94 mph and tops out at 95 mph. Historically has been able to get up to 98 mph. Fringe-average-to-average fastball command. Can open shoulder early, which leads to reduced command in spells. Inconsistent downward leverage. Arm drag reduces velocity and ability to stay on top of the ball. Has struggled keeping delivery consistent. 78-82 mph hammer curveball grades as plus. Tight rotation and excellent depth through the strike zone. Able to bury out of the strike zone or drop it in for a strike. Outstanding feel for his curveball. Future swing-and-miss pitch at major league level. Fringe-average 81-83 mph changeup. Doesn’t always finish delivery on changeup leaving it up in the zone where it is very flat and hittable. Offering is improving, but still inconsistent from outing to outing. Changeup has average potential, but lack of development with pitch could push him to a bullpen role. Appears to over-think things. Needs to be more loose. Still learning to incorporate lower half into pitching mechanics. Historically has some rigidness in delivery, which has tended to wear him out after laboring. Third starter ceiling at major-league level. |
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Post by Don Caballero on Jan 7, 2014 0:13:06 GMT -5
He is a competitor and seems to have the fire, but his body can't keep up with the rigors of starting pitching so far. That's not true, he had some injury problems thus far but no major red flag or anything in the way you're implying. Fatigue after doubling the workload from the previous season happens frequently at this stage. |
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Post by jmei on Jun 14, 2014 10:32:12 GMT -5
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Post by soxfan06 on Jun 14, 2014 11:00:03 GMT -5
It really could be huge if Ranaudo could develop an above average slider.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jun 14, 2014 11:33:54 GMT -5
I understand the demand for good starting pitching but it's tempting to just make him a reliever now and have him relatively cost controlled for 6 years as a real decent 7-8th inning guy. He has that potential.
Maybe it's my imagination but it wouldn't surprise me if Boston inserts as many as 3 of these guys into the rotation next year. They don't seem to be inclined to trade any of their starting pitching prospects. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they let Peavy and Lester walk and go with the kids.
That doesn't seem to be what a big market team would normally do but they seem to be very focused on developing their own starting pitching talent.
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Post by soxfan06 on Jun 14, 2014 12:03:03 GMT -5
I understand the demand for good starting pitching but it's tempting to just make him a reliever now and have him relatively cost controlled for 6 years as a real decent 7-8th inning guy. He has that potential. Maybe it's my imagination but it wouldn't surprise me if Boston inserts as many as 3 of these guys into the rotation next year. They don't seem to be inclined to trade any of their starting pitching prospects. I wouldn't be at all surprised if they let Peavy and Lester walk and go with the kids. That doesn't seem to be what a big market team would normally do but they seem to be very focused on developing their own starting pitching talent. It's not remotely tempting to switch Ranaudo to the bullpen at all right now. He has the potential to be a middle of the rotation guy, until he proves he can't be a starter in the league there is zero temptation to switch his position. A decent 7th-8th inning guy gives you about a 1/8th of the value of a decent 5th starter. |
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Post by Don Caballero on Jun 14, 2014 12:13:21 GMT -5
It still astound me how many options we have for starters at AAA and AA. Basically none of those guys have a tremendously high ceiling, but due to that many arms I'd be heavily surprised if at least 2 of them didn't make it as average MLB starters and even more so if one of them doesn't start throwing a cutter or something and dominate for a few seasons.
That being said, I'd love to see Ranaudo walking less dudes.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jun 14, 2014 12:58:25 GMT -5
Ranaudo has had problems staying healthy and now tiring after 7o innings potentially. His pitch mix is still largely 2 pitch. He's 24. I agree that he should stay a starter for now but put me down as a little tempted.
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...}He was pretty enthusiastic about Ranaudo. He said that he had grown an inch over the winter to 6'8" and was now throwing 96-97. Then, unfortunately the game started. I recall that he was 90-91 with maybe a couple at 92. He was also conspicuously wild and was pulled in the 4th. On that day I don't think that many would have regarded him as a prospect.
