SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
|
Post by patrmac04 on Sept 19, 2012 13:24:23 GMT -5
I had Couch ranked #37 coming into the season and will certainly have him higher next spring. He and Chris Hernandez have consistently been the most under rankerd players here IMO. I think Chris Hernandez is the most under rated player in our system. The Red Sox obviously see something in this kid that they like because he flew through the system and is only 23 with a full year of AA and AAA behind him. Just like Felix Doubront wasn't ranked high on this site before he broke in with the big club... I feel that there is something about Chris that the Sox really like. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get some time in the show next year. I honestly overlooked Keith Couch until this posting... so I would surely say he is underrated as well since he is posting solid numbers. That being said, I think the rubber meets the road in AA and AAA. I try not to get too excited about a prospect until I see them up at that level. I will keep my eye on him in the future though as he certainly has consistently good numbers.
|
|
|
Post by Matt Huegel on Sept 19, 2012 13:50:03 GMT -5
I think Chris Hernandez is the most under rated player in our system. The Red Sox obviously see something in this kid that they like because he flew through the system and is only 23 with a full year of AA and AAA behind him. Just like Felix Doubront wasn't ranked high on this site before he broke in with the big club... I feel that there is something about Chris that the Sox really like. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get some time in the show next year. This part about Doubront is untrue. He was ranked at sixth overall throughout most of 2010 and 2011, peaked at third in 2011 then dropped a bit due to injuries. Doubront first cracked the top 20 in 2006, something Hernandez has yet to do.
|
|
|
Post by patrmac04 on Sept 19, 2012 14:55:53 GMT -5
I think Chris Hernandez is the most under rated player in our system. The Red Sox obviously see something in this kid that they like because he flew through the system and is only 23 with a full year of AA and AAA behind him. Just like Felix Doubront wasn't ranked high on this site before he broke in with the big club... I feel that there is something about Chris that the Sox really like. I wouldn't be surprised to see him get some time in the show next year. This part about Doubront is untrue. He was ranked at sixth overall throughout most of 2010 and 2011, peaked at third in 2011 then dropped a bit due to injuries. Doubront first cracked the top 20 in 2006, something Hernandez has yet to do. I don't remember him reaching as high as third and I remember him being a prospect for what felt like forever. I just looked back and see that you are right of course, but he always reminded me of a Stolmy Pimentel type... where he would swing between high teens and high single digits for years and years. Speaking of Stolmy Pimentel... looks like his stat line is messed up for 2012... the columns are shifted one to the left.
|
|
|
Post by patrmac04 on Sept 19, 2012 14:58:14 GMT -5
So I don't want to start another thread for Chris Hernandez... he appears to have a pedestrian offering, but keeps getting results including AA and AAA. Why is he rated so low in the system? His k/9 and k/bb improved in AA and then again when promoted to AAA. For me he has passed the threshold where he is now pitching to quality hitters.
*edit* added sentence
|
|
|
Post by Chris Hatfield on Sept 19, 2012 22:24:15 GMT -5
So I don't want to start another thread for Chris Hernandez... he appears to have a pedestrian offering, but keeps getting results including AA and AAA. Why is he rated so low in the system? His k/9 and k/bb improved in AA and then again when promoted to AAA. For me he has passed the threshold where he is now pitching to quality hitters. *edit* added sentence A) In the future start a new thread. I'm going to split this out to a new Hernandez thread. B) I'll let this "glowing" quote from Amiel Sawdaye do the speaking about Hernandez: fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2012/09/07/red-sox-minor-league-roundup-chris-hernandez-and-bryce-brentz-do-their-thing/When your scouting director is talking about a top prospect, do you want him talking about how he "wouldn't be very surprised" to see him have a major league career? That's not really ringing praise. He's got pedestrian stuff and just isn't a Major League starter. There's a reason we, BA, and Sickels all had him ranked outside the system's top 30 last offseason, and I doubt he cracks the top 20 this offseason in any of those forums.
|
|
|
Post by patrmac04 on Sept 19, 2012 23:17:02 GMT -5
So I don't want to start another thread for Chris Hernandez... he appears to have a pedestrian offering, but keeps getting results including AA and AAA. Why is he rated so low in the system? His k/9 and k/bb improved in AA and then again when promoted to AAA. For me he has passed the threshold where he is now pitching to quality hitters. *edit* added sentence A) In the future start a new thread. I'm going to split this out to a new Hernandez thread. B) I'll let this "glowing" quote from Amiel Sawdaye do the speaking about Hernandez: fullcount.weei.com/sports/boston/baseball/red-sox/2012/09/07/red-sox-minor-league-roundup-chris-hernandez-and-bryce-brentz-do-their-thing/When your scouting director is talking about a top prospect, do you want him talking about how he "wouldn't be very surprised" to see him have a major league career? That's not really ringing praise. He's got pedestrian stuff and just isn't a Major League starter. There's a reason we, BA, and Sickels all had him ranked outside the system's top 30 last offseason, and I doubt he cracks the top 20 this offseason in any of those forums. Hi Chris... rough first day for me here. I will start a new thread next time. Point noted. The part that seemed to stand out to me with Hernandez was the consistency that he has between increasing levels of competition. He only has a couple of years of service, but he has worked progressively through the system without missing a beat. His numbers hardly budged between A and AA / AAA over a span of two years. There is enough sample size to rule out a fluke as he had some pretty darn strong numbers... actually some of the best in the high minors from all our starters. I have never seen him pitch in person, so I can't give a scouting report... but he seems to me on paper to be a poor man's Kyle Lohse with less strikeouts and more ground balls. Now that I think about it... probably closer to an Abe Alvarez with better peripherals and stats at the same point in their careers. He also makes me think of Lenny Dinardo. Dare I even bring up Aaron Cook'ishness? It looks like he has some very hard splits and is dominant against lefties in the limited stats on MiLB. I wonder if he could find a niche as a LOOGY over time or if we will end up trading him to Oakland where they welcome undervalued players with quirky talents. That being said, if he doesn't have great stuff but continues to get results then I think he has more use as depth than in a trade. We tried for years to hype up Abe and trade him, but there were never any takers. We didn't even get a bag of balls for Lenny Dinardo when Oakland picked him up on waivers and he posted a 4.10 ERA and an 8-10 record for them as a starter. It is tough to be successful as an extreme ground ball pitcher, but he has certainly caught my eye. I think in today's game there is a considerable prejudice against pitchers without a strong fastball. It is mainly for a good reason, but there are certainly successful pitchers who don't throw hard. Dinardo never made it into our top 20 prospect list, but Abe did and topped out at the number 3 spot in June 2004 and I remember seeing him in the top 10 for quite some time. I think that shows you that with that type of pitcher, you won't get a return... so I think he is in the right spot in AAA right now. I like that type of depth and think that he could be serviceable for spot starts. Either that or as a LOOGY swing man / long relief. Maybe that is what the scout was talking about. That being said... put his stats side by side to Webster and Hernandez has a better career WHIP, ERA, H/9, BB/9 and has reached a higher level of baseball in half as many innings. Chicks and scouts dig the strikeout and a sick fastball and that is what Webster has over Hernandez. I'm not saying that Hernandez is a top ten prospect, but I think I made the case that he could be higher than 31 since I could see him being serviceable and even successful on the Sox coming out of spring training if needed. ps... that link doesn't seem to work when I put it in my browser
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 19, 2012 23:45:25 GMT -5
Abe Alvarez being so high in the prospect rankings is more an indication of how far the farm system has come since 2004 than on Alvarez as a player. Lenny DiNardo's one decent ERA season was really a fluke-- he had a 4.84 FIP and barely struck out more batters than he walked that year, and he has a career 4.91 FIP and has pitched 44 major league innings since 2007. These should not be positive comps for Hernandez and you really shouldn't use them to argue that he's underrated.
Hernandez might have a future as a LOOGY, but that's basically his ceiling given his stuff. It's not just that he has a slow fastball-- it's that he has no plus secondary pitches either, and he lacks the elite command that's a prerequisite to thrive without swing-and-miss stuff. He's posted good ERAs but mediocre peripheral numbers-- his walks in particular are a bad sign. In light of that, I think he's properly rated-- higher ranked on this site than Fields or Olmstead, for instance, but behind pitchers with greater upside.
|
|
|
Post by patrmac04 on Sept 19, 2012 23:59:52 GMT -5
Abe Alvarez being so high in the prospect rankings is more an indication of how far the farm system has come since 2004 than on Alvarez as a player. Lenny DiNardo's one decent ERA season was really a fluke-- he had a 4.84 FIP and barely struck out more batters than he walked that year, and he has a career 4.91 FIP and has pitched 44 major league innings since 2007. These should not be positive comps for Hernandez and you really shouldn't use them to argue that he's underrated. Hernandez might have a future as a LOOGY, but that's basically his ceiling given his stuff. It's not just that he has a slow fastball-- it's that he has no plus secondary pitches either, and he lacks the elite command that's a prerequisite to thrive without swing-and-miss stuff. He's posted good ERAs but mediocre peripheral numbers-- his walks in particular are a bad sign. In light of that, I think he's properly rated-- higher ranked on this site than Fields or Olmstead, for instance, but behind pitchers with greater upside. Not being a scout, my own criteria is simply... could this guy have a use on the Red Sox? To me I think he could as soon as next year, so I put some value to that. I also value players that have a higher chance of making the majors than those with crazy tools, but can't harness them. This is why I have always harped on Daniel Nava in the past for example. He is a player without any real tools and was never really ranked, but he is a very solid hitter and fit the needs of the Red Sox well early this year IMO. I always felt like he was snubbed on rankings because of his lack of size, speed and everything that a scout would rank... but his approach at the plate was better than anyone we had in the system since Youks IMO. If I had to choose today who I would rather have start a game for the Red Sox, then I would take Hernandez at 23 years old hands down over Stolmy Pimentel at 22 years old for example.
|
|
|
Post by patrmac04 on Sept 20, 2012 0:05:28 GMT -5
I brought up Dinardo to just show that a player who wasn't ranked with the same tool set could contribute on the MLB level... I didn't notice that he was a WHIP nightmare until you pointed it out. I was just trying to rack my brain of players who we had who played in the bigs and had some success and I recalled him having some in Oakland for a year.
Abe I brought up to say that he was ranked very high at one time with worse numbers than Hernandez and the same level of fastball and control. He was ranked high for years, so I don't accept that we had a bad farm system all those years. We had a very good farm system in 2006 for example and he was still a top 20 prospect. In 2005 Abe was ranked above Papelbon, Lester, Delcarmen, Kelly Shoppach, Anibal Sanchez. He was 4th behind Pedroia, Moss and Hanley. This was a year after Lester was ranked our number 1 prospect in 2004, so we already knew the kid was a stud.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 20, 2012 0:15:08 GMT -5
Fair enough, we can disagree on prospect valuation methodology. I just think there are always tons of Chris Hernandez-types floating around as minor league free agents or easily available in a trade (Justin Germano, Justin Thomas, or Matt Fox, for instance), and while they might not have options left, they're just not that valuable given how easy that emergency depth starter is easy to acquire.
|
|
|
Post by patrmac04 on Sept 20, 2012 0:19:51 GMT -5
Cool man... I agree that it is easier to find an Aaron Cook on the scrap heap than a tools type player with higher upside. In the end all I want is a successful team and I can see how Hernandez might help us over time.
Enough beating a dead horse for me... time to get some shut eye. Have a good night man.
|
|
|
Post by ancientsoxfogey on Sept 20, 2012 7:04:26 GMT -5
Hernandez is one of those guys who could -- COULD -- just surprise and make it all the way to the bigs and be successful, with people scratching their heads all the way.
John Tudor.
Or maybe not. But the point is, he's established himself as being properly placed at AAA at this point; however, he hasn't had enough exposure at that level to say what his success is going to be. I've long said that I thought AAA is the big minor league challenge for a finesse pitcher (rather than AA) because more mature hitters don't get themselves out as easily.
It could well be that Hernandez will start out at AAA next year and take a step back after this year's promising AAA beginning, sort of like a few recent toolsy position prospects did at AA. But, if he starts next season and begins to pile up innings pitching to, say, a 3.0 - 3.5 ERA, he figures to get a call-up at some point, through injury on the big club -- as a starter.
|
|
|
Post by dcb26 on Sept 20, 2012 8:43:07 GMT -5
Hernandez is an interesting case, I've always felt that minor league stats were next to useless for evaluating a player's major league future, but I also feel like it's a mistake to take a guy who's put up very good-great stats at every level and not give them a chance.
I would hope that, at the very least, the Sox give Hernandez a long look as a starter in spring training before they move him to the 'pen.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Sept 20, 2012 9:33:08 GMT -5
Hernandez is an interesting case, I've always felt that minor league stats were next to useless for evaluating a player's major league future, but I also feel like it's a mistake to take a guy who's put up very good-great stats at every level and not give them a chance. It's not that minor league stats are useless, it's that some minor league stats are useless. For pitchers, strikeout rate, walk rate, and groundball rate are useful evaluation/projection tools. For hitters, strikeout rate, walk rate, and isolated power can be useful. But you can't just look at ERA or batting average and call it a day, which I think some posters are doing with certain players that I am not as high on, like Hernandez or Brentz.
|
|
|
Post by patrmac04 on Sept 20, 2012 10:45:07 GMT -5
Hernandez is an interesting case, I've always felt that minor league stats were next to useless for evaluating a player's major league future, but I also feel like it's a mistake to take a guy who's put up very good-great stats at every level and not give them a chance. It's not that minor league stats are useless, it's that some minor league stats are useless. For pitchers, strikeout rate, walk rate, and groundball rate are useful evaluation/projection tools. For hitters, strikeout rate, walk rate, and isolated power can be useful. But you can't just look at ERA or batting average and call it a day, which I think some posters are doing with certain players that I am not as high on, like Hernandez or Brentz. I would agree on those metrics and I also agree with not thinking as highly about Brentz. The problem with those pitching metrics is that it doesn't seem to accurately depict why Hernandez has been successful. Without seeing him live, I can only guess based on the great prospect write up that you have on the prospect and say that maybe it is his cutter that has worked for him so far. Mariano (and believe me, I'm not putting him in the same class) has made a very successful career out of having one pitch. Mariano was considered a fringe prospect at best early in his career. Now again... this kid isn't Mariano... nobody is, but if he has that one dominant cutter that is elusive enough to almost always induce ground balls then he could be very successful out of the bullpen. Again, I haven't scouted him and didn't know anything about him until recently... so I am just taking a stab in the dark. I simply feel that if he is getting time as a starter in AAA and doing rather well at a young age, then there is a significant chance that the Sox see something in him that might not show up to a typical scout. Even if a pitcher is destined to be a reliever, the Sox seem to like pitchers with potential as starters to allow the most time and repetitions to evaluate and improve.
|
|
|
Post by Steve Henley on Sept 20, 2012 16:41:18 GMT -5
"Mariano was considered a fringe prospect at best early in his career"
This actually is a point against Hernandez. That fringy, minor league version of Mariano Rivera never made it to the majors. When he was 25 in AAA (and on the verge of being traded) his velocity randomly jumped from the upper 80s to 95-96 and he became a completely different pitcher. He also never threw a cutter in the minors. It was a pitch he developed during his third season in the majors.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on Sept 20, 2012 19:42:04 GMT -5
This actually is a point against Hernandez. That fringy, minor league version of Mariano Rivera never made it to the majors. When he was 25 in AAA (and on the verge of being traded) his velocity randomly jumped from the upper 80s to 95-96 and he became a completely different pitcher.
Why do I hear Robert Johnson singing Crossroads?
|
|
|