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Jackie Bradley Jr. - does the glove outweigh the bat?
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Post by elguapo on Mar 3, 2014 13:04:48 GMT -5
Bradley is definitely not a good enough hitter yet While I would expect some growing pains / adjustment period, it's absolutely possible that Bradley would be a better offensive player vs. a Nava/Gomes platoon this season. Not wise to go all in betting against a 23-year-old top prospect who shot up the ladder and put up a ~ .850 OPS last year at AAA. He could easily break out as a rookie.
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Post by jmei on Mar 3, 2014 13:23:02 GMT -5
Bradley is definitely not a good enough hitter yet While I would expect some growing pains / adjustment period, it's absolutely possible that Bradley would be a better offensive player vs. a Nava/Gomes platoon this season. Not wise to go all in betting against a 23-year-old top prospect who shot up the ladder and put up a ~ .850 OPS last year at AAA. He could easily break out as a rookie. I guess I'm pretty bearish on prospects who have succeeded in the minors in large part due to BABIP skill, especially those who've done so without elite speed or batspeed. I have a pretty hard time seeing Bradley OBPing .360+ while still striking out 20+% of the time, especially as long as he continues to struggle with hard stuff in. You're right, it's possible, as young players make that sort of rapid improvement in their game every year, I just don't think it's terribly likely.
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Post by elguapo on Mar 3, 2014 14:22:14 GMT -5
I guess I'm pretty bearish on prospects who have succeeded in the minors in large part due to BABIP skill, especially those who've done so without elite speed or batspeed. I guess I don't really follow. Bradley has a good package at the plate, plus bat speed, bat control, and patience. He's consistently posted strong walk and xbh numbers and projects to hit for average.
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Post by jmei on Mar 3, 2014 15:43:43 GMT -5
I guess I'm pretty bearish on prospects who have succeeded in the minors in large part due to BABIP skill, especially those who've done so without elite speed or batspeed. I guess I don't really follow. Bradley has a good package at the plate, plus bat speed, bat control, and patience. He's consistently posted strong walk and xbh numbers and projects to hit for average. My contention is with the "projects to hit for average" bit. I'm almost certainly in the minority here (for instance, our own Chris Mellen, writing at BP, projected him to hit somewhere around .285-.295 at the big league level (though that scouting report did come out before his major-league struggles last year; I'm curious whether Chris still thinks that to be true)), but I don't think he has particularly good bat control or contact skills, and I think he's going to hit closer to .260 than .280, at least unless he learns to hit inside pitches consistently. I'm no scout, but he severely struggled to make consistent contact in his brief major-league stint last year, even when he came back up towards the end of the year (in 41 September PAs, he still struck out 26.8% of the time). Major league pitchers, equipped with advanced scouting reports, are going to consistently exploit that hole until he fixes it, and it's not an easy fix (you saw him zoning in on on inside pitches at times, but that just left him vulnerable to soft stuff away). Bradley's issues with Ks aren't a particularly new issue, either. His minor-league strikeout rates (one of the statistics that does translate relatively well between the majors and the minors) have been pretty unimpressive over the past few years (20.1% in Pawtucket, 18.1% in Portland). The disparity is even more stark when you look at his contact rates. Even at the minor league level, Bradley's contact rates have been well below-average-- according to Minor League Central, at Pawtucket last year, his contact rate on pitches outside the zone was 60.8% (66.6% is major-league average; in his brief major-league stint, he was at 56.9%) and his contact rate on pitches inside the zone was 77.9% (87% league-average, 81.4% in his major-league stint). That in-zone contact rate should be particularly worrisome-- guys who made contact on pitches in the zone that infrequently basically constitute the entire list of "guys you think of who strike out too much" (note that I'm not sure how reliable that minor-league z-contact stat is, because it simply blows my mind that Bradley could even keep his K% as low as 20% with a 77.9% z-contact). Remembering that contact rate starts becoming reliable at around 100 PAs, Bradley's overall 73.4% contact rate at the major league level in 107 PAs last year would have ranked in the bottom 25 amongst qualified players between 2011-13, surrounded by guys like J.P. Arencibia, Kelly Johnson, Yoenis Cespedes, and Nelson Cruz. To his credit, Bradley doesn't chase a lot (he swings at below-average rates on pitches both in and out of the strike zone at both MLB and AAA). But when he swings, he swings and misses a lot, and guys who do that generally don't hit .280 (of the 84 players who struck out 20+% of the time from 2011-13, only 7 hit .280+ (Matt Kemp, Chris Johnson, Paul Goldschmidt, Carlos Gonzalez, David Freese, Freddie Freeman, Mike Trout)). If he's hitting .260, even with great walk rates and a little pop, he's going to be hard-pressed to be a good enough offensive player to be hitting leadoff anytime soon. It's certainly possible he improves his contact rates over time-- most players do as they age, and Bradley is young enough and has the sort of makeup and work ethic that I'd expect him to meaningfully improve as he ages. But as things currently stand, Bradley has a strikeout problem, and it's hard to project him to project him to blossom offensively until he fixes it.
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Post by jmei on Mar 3, 2014 15:54:41 GMT -5
ADD: note that this thread started in the context of whether JBJ would be good enough offensively to hit leadoff. Even with significant strikeout issues, I think Bradley will be an above-average regular due to his strong defense at an up-the-middle position, high walk rate, and averagish power potential. But I think until he improves his ability to make contact significantly, he's a bottom-third-of-the-order type hitter.
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Post by mattpicard on Mar 3, 2014 16:00:58 GMT -5
The hope is that he eventually develops into a capable leadoff hitter, and doing so early this season would be phenomenal. While Nava could handle leadoff duties just fine against RHP, the lack of speed and need for a platoon make him ideally more of a five or six-hole guy in the lineup. I have a lot of reservations with Victorino being relied on up there. Health plus the inability to post a solid leadoff type OBP without a plethora of HBPs is concerning for sure. Are either of these really that big of a concern though? Speed would certainly be nice, but it should be pretty well accepted that what is far more important is that you have one of your best three or four hitters hitting leadoff, because that hitter will average far more at-bats than if he hit fifth or sixth. There's also no reason the leadoff spot can't be platooned-- teams like the Rays and Athletics have done so to great effect over recent years, and the Red Sox have a ready-made platoon in Nava (.303/.401/.459 versus RHP, last three years) versus most RHP and Gomes (.277/.387/.494 versus LHP, last three years) versus most LHP (I know you have to regress those splits heavily, but you get the idea-- Nava is almost certainly one of their best four hitters versus righties and Gomes is almost certainly one of their best four hitters versus lefties). There shouldn't be much of a issue with disrupting their "routine" if Farrell just implements a fairly strict rule that Nava will leadoff versus righties and Gomes will leadoff versus lefties and sticks to it over the course of a long season. Besides, what are the alternatives? Bradley is definitely not a good enough hitter yet (there's really no reason to think that he will be a better hitter versus RHP than Nava or a better hitter versus LHP than Gomes in 2014), and he'll have to really trim the strikeout rate if he ever wants to get there someday. Bogaerts would be a fine option, but Farrell probably doesn't want to expose him to that much pressure as a rookie. Pedroia would be ideal, but he prefers hitting second, which is an important enough spot that you might as well accommodate him. So it's really a question of whether you prefer a Nava/Gomes platoon or Victorino, and I think the production a Nava/Gomes platoon would offer is just much better than what you'd expect from Victorino. No, it's not a big concern, which is why Nava is currently my preferred choice, by far, to hit leadoff right now. I was merely saying that if/when JBJ hits his stride at the MLB level, say something around a .275/.370/.430 line, then that would probably be the best leadoff choice, due both to increased speed up top and allowing Nava to hit in the middle of the order where he's excelled (SSS, but it's notable that Nava has performed far better in the 5/6 spots than anywhere else). You're right though, a platoon situation up top, that would be in place in the lineup somewhere anyway, isn't going to really hamper us.
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Post by dmaineah on Mar 3, 2014 17:31:11 GMT -5
Bradley will get the first month of the season to prove himself while Sizemore gets more time at AAA
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Post by jmei on Apr 17, 2014 16:26:52 GMT -5
Michael Bauman on Bradley and the temptation to hit for power: For what it's worth, in the brief sample we have so far, Bradley is striking out a ton (27.1%) but he's not even hitting for much power to make up for it (.073 ISO). Something to watch as the season stretches on.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 17, 2014 17:08:01 GMT -5
No one is hitting for power yet. Let's wait for the warmer weather. But Bradley's 14.6% BB rate is really encouraging. He's going to have a good OBP no matter what.
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Post by jmei on Apr 17, 2014 17:39:45 GMT -5
No one is hitting for power yet. Let's wait for the warmer weather. But Bradley's 14.6% BB rate is really encouraging. He's going to have a good OBP no matter what. Well, despite that great walk rate and a BABIP on the higher side (.357), Bradley's OBP stands at .354, which is certainly very good but far from his career .404 OBP in the minors or the .370 mark Matt hopes for above and Bauman references in his article. If he's to reach his ceiling, Bradley has to make more contact, and that's true even if he continues to walk a bunch.
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Post by moonstone2 on Apr 19, 2014 10:01:58 GMT -5
I think the issue here is that he hero swings too often and too much with two strikes especially with men on base.
His AB last night in the 5th versus Tillman was demonstrative. He got the count to 3-1 and Tillman threw him a fastball inside. Jackie hero swung and missed. Tillman threw him another fastball this time over the outer half. Jackie again hero swung and missed. Well Nava took the same pitch and knocked it into the gap for a double. Jackie just has to learn a better two strike app
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Post by larrycook on Apr 20, 2014 10:49:58 GMT -5
I think the issue here is that he hero swings too often and too much with two strikes especially with men on base. His AB last night in the 5th versus Tillman was demonstrative. He got the count to 3-1 and Tillman threw him a fastball inside. Jackie hero swung and missed. Tillman threw him another fastball this time over the outer half. Jackie again hero swung and missed. Well Nava took the same pitch and knocked it into the gap for a double. Jackie just has to learn a better two strike app Until Bradley can hit inside pitches, he is going to struggle with K's. Unfortunately I do not see him being able to fix this problem at Pawtucket, he needs MLB at bats.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 20, 2014 11:03:54 GMT -5
He will get the chance. Nava will be in AAA.
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Post by sarasoxer on Apr 20, 2014 11:25:08 GMT -5
I think the issue here is that he hero swings too often and too much with two strikes especially with men on base. His AB last night in the 5th versus Tillman was demonstrative. He got the count to 3-1 and Tillman threw him a fastball inside. Jackie hero swung and missed. Tillman threw him another fastball this time over the outer half. Jackie again hero swung and missed. Well Nava took the same pitch and knocked it into the gap for a double. Jackie just has to learn a better two strike app Until Bradley can hit inside pitches, he is going to struggle with K's. Unfortunately I do not see him being able to fix this problem at Pawtucket, he needs MLB at bats. I recall that at-bat you reference. A lot of the pitches he missed were, to me, in the middle of the plate. He just flat missed them.
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 21, 2014 12:46:53 GMT -5
Well, if JBJ doesn't work out as an outfielder we can just convert him to a pitcher, he has a rocket launcher for an arm.
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Post by godot on Apr 21, 2014 17:31:16 GMT -5
Sox have little choice at this stage, but to keep and play him, as they do not have a legit center fielder, and they value defense. I really do not know about his offensive potential, - nice, compact swing but ability to hit to all fields and control swing? Norm believes his minor league stats say he will produce, but his AAA stats wer not impressive. Regardless they are stuck with him. So the plan to let Ellsbury flee just is not working, with two guts hitting the 200 mark and one not really a center fielder now. No prospects in the minors either. Did they screw it up with their arrogance?
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Post by mattpicard on Apr 21, 2014 17:38:23 GMT -5
Sox have little choice at this stage, but to keep and play him, as they do not have a legit center fielder, and they value defense. I really do not know about his offensive potential, - nice, compact swing but ability to hit to all fields and control swing? Norm believes his minor league stats say he will produce, but his AAA stats wer not impressive. Regardless they are stuck with him. So the plan to let Ellsbury flee just is not working, with two guts hitting the 200 mark and one not really a center fielder now. No prospects in the minors either. Did they screw it up with their arrogance? On a cell phone so I can't write much, but how were Bradley's AAA stats not impressive? I disagree.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 21, 2014 17:48:59 GMT -5
Sox have little choice at this stage, but to keep and play him, as they do not have a legit center fielder, and they value defense. I really do not know about his offensive potential, - nice, compact swing but ability to hit to all fields and control swing? Norm believes his minor league stats say he will produce, but his AAA stats wer not impressive. Regardless they are stuck with him. So the plan to let Ellsbury flee just is not working, with two guts hitting the 200 mark and one not really a center fielder now. No prospects in the minors either. Did they screw it up with their arrogance? Yeah, it's all over.
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Post by godot on Apr 21, 2014 18:02:40 GMT -5
Matt, his average in Portland and Pawtucket was in the 270s, and in AAA his strike out rate was twice his walks. Rule of thumb, you subtract about 20 to 25 points from minor league stats to project major league averages. Not a science, Just a guide. so far he hasn't done much in the majors and he is what, 23 and played in a good college program. Oh, I forget he walks sometimes.
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Post by mattpicard on Apr 21, 2014 18:04:43 GMT -5
Matt, his average in Portland and Pawtucket was in the 270s, and in AAA his strike out rate was twice his walks. Rule of thumb, you subtract about 20 to 25 points from minor league stats to project major league averages. Not a science, Just a guide. so far he hasn't done much in the majors and he is what, 23 and played in a good college program. Oh, I forget he walks sometimes. I care about the OBP/OPS a helluva lot more than the average. No one expects him to hit .300 or even .280 in MLB. If he's at .260 with a .350+ OBP and elite defense, that's a damn solid player.
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Post by moonstone2 on Apr 21, 2014 18:32:47 GMT -5
Until Bradley can hit inside pitches, he is going to struggle with K's. Unfortunately I do not see him being able to fix this problem at Pawtucket, he needs MLB at bats. I recall that at-bat you reference. A lot of the pitches he missed were, to me, in the middle of the plate. He just flat missed them. If you swing as hard as you can you are going to give up some bat controller and swing and miss at some good pitches. I think it's fair to say that in that situation, I want Jackie to put the ball in play by hook or by crook. We have to understand about both Bogarts and Bradley that they are still developing and learning. If it's Pedey in the same situation he is either pulling the 3-1 pitch or shortening his swing and getting a 3-2 base hit.
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Post by godot on Apr 21, 2014 19:09:20 GMT -5
Matt, his average in Portland and Pawtucket was in the 270s, and in AAA his strike out rate was twice his walks. Rule of thumb, you subtract about 20 to 25 points from minor league stats to project major league averages. Not a science, Just a guide. so far he hasn't done much in the majors and he is what, 23 and played in a good college program. Oh, I forget he walks sometimes. I care about the OBP/OPS a helluva lot more than the average. No one expects him to hit .300 or even .280 in MLB. If he's at .260 with a .350+ OBP and elite defense, that's a damn solid player. Interesting to see you admit he may even not hit 280 in the majors. How long will he have a decent OBP when he is striking out twice as much as he walks. Why not go after him if he can't hit the stuff in the strike zone? You also miss the point. He may be a valuable major league with his defense, but perhaps hitting prowess was over estimated, my main point. He was perhaps advanced for the lower leagues, and some became enthralled with his average at that level. I recall the same OBP arguments were made for putting Youklis over at third instead of Beltre as Youkilis walked more. How did that turn out? Regardless, they have little choice but to let him play and prove himself as being more than someone who walks once in awhile, something that could change if he shows he cannot hit. I believe though that he can hit 280 with some adjustments, which will also help his walking abilities . As far as an offensive replacement for Ellsbury. That may be asking too much.
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Post by mattpicard on Apr 21, 2014 20:14:51 GMT -5
I care about the OBP/OPS a helluva lot more than the average. No one expects him to hit .300 or even .280 in MLB. If he's at .260 with a .350+ OBP and elite defense, that's a damn solid player. Interesting to see you admit he may even not hit 280 in the majors. How long will he have a decent OBP when he is striking out twice as much as he walks. Why not go after him if he can't hit the stuff in the strike zone? You also miss the point. He may be a valuable major league with his defense, but perhaps hitting prowess was over estimated, my main point. He was perhaps advanced for the lower leagues, and some became enthralled with his average at that level. I recall the same OBP arguments were made for putting Youklis over at third instead of Beltre as Youkilis walked more. How did that turn out? Regardless, they have little choice but to let him play and prove himself as being more than someone who walks once in awhile, something that could change if he shows he cannot hit. I believe though that he can hit 280 with some adjustments, which will also help his walking abilities . As far as an offensive replacement for Ellsbury. That may be asking too much. I wasn't aware that people were expecting him to be a .300 hitter or a replacement for Ellsbury offensively. I think people see a good OBP/elite defensive player. Scouts typically slapped a 50 on his hit tool, and assuming he can make some adjustments on his weak spots in the strike zone, that sounds about right. What is the point that I'm missing? He's not a hitting phenom like the SSS-neglects thought during spring training 2013, and I never got caught up in that. Regarding that Youkilis comment - from 2006-2011: Youkilis: .893 OPS, 130 OPS+ in 795 games Beltre: .815 OPS, 114 OPS+ in 837 games Youk got old and broke down, but that was predictable given all the hits his body endured, and he never screamed athlete to begin with. He had a hell of a run, though.
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Post by jmei on Apr 21, 2014 20:27:22 GMT -5
Interesting to see you admit he may even not hit 280 in the majors. How long will he have a decent OBP when he is striking out twice as much as he walks. Why not go after him if he can't hit the stuff in the strike zone? You also miss the point. He may be a valuable major league with his defense, but perhaps hitting prowess was over estimated, my main point. He was perhaps advanced for the lower leagues, and some became enthralled with his average at that level. I recall the same OBP arguments were made for putting Youklis over at third instead of Beltre as Youkilis walked more. How did that turn out? Regardless, they have little choice but to let him play and prove himself as being more than someone who walks once in awhile, something that could change if he shows he cannot hit. I believe though that he can hit 280 with some adjustments, which will also help his walking abilities . As far as an offensive replacement for Ellsbury. That may be asking too much. What is your fixation with batting average and hitting .280? I'm not sure what you think "a decent OBP" is, but the league-average OBP was .321 last year; Bradley will easily exceed that even if he hits .240 (his isolated patience is .101 over his brief major league career and has never been lower than .099 at any point in his minor league career). Characterizing him as a guy who "can't hit the stuff in the strike zone" is overstated as well-- while his career 82.8% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone is below league average (86.5%), it's also on par with guys like Freddie Freeman and Evan Longoria-- guys who strike out a little bit too much but aren't Napoli/Saltalamacchia-esque whiff machines. I do agree that some folks set offensive expectations too high based on Bradley's minor league production. Unless he significantly improves his strikeout rate, he's never going to be the elite offensive player that his minor league stats might have suggested at first glance. For instance, more than a few folks suggested that he could approximate Ellsbury's line from last year (a .355 OBP/.426 SLG), and that was wildly optimistic. The league-average center fielder put up a .331 OBP/.395 SLG last year-- I'd be thrilled if Bradley could match those marks this year and next (but I think he'll come up short). Even at his peak, I'd be pretty surprised if he ever reaches the .370 OBP/.430 SLG plateau that Matt predicts above. I think he's more likely to max out as something like a .350 OBP/.400 SLG, three-and-a-half win player as opposed to the four-and-a-half win, All-Star caliber player that he would be with a .370/.430 line.
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Post by moonstone2 on Apr 21, 2014 20:51:26 GMT -5
At the end of the day the Red Sox might want to consider a trade for a CF.
I like Jmei's Gentry idea, but the Sox don't match up very well with Texas. Another idea is Denofria whom they inquired about before and is a free agent to be on a team that probably won't do much.
Carp probably fits with them and Nava even more so.
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