SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
Jackie Bradley Jr. - does the glove outweigh the bat?
|
Post by jmei on Apr 21, 2014 21:41:05 GMT -5
Denorfia is a great name to bring up, and one that should be available at the trade deadline. He's always killed it versus righties (career .308/.374/.458, 133 wRC+), and would be a perfectly Bradley complement and Victorino backup. The problem, as you mentioned, is that they'd near to clear two outfield spots (out of Sizemore, Gomes, Nava, and Carp) to fit Denorfia on the roster.
|
|
|
Post by godot on Apr 21, 2014 21:41:30 GMT -5
Good info Jmei
|
|
|
Post by moonstone2 on Apr 22, 2014 6:14:20 GMT -5
Denorfia is a great name to bring up, and one that should be available at the trade deadline. He's always killed it versus righties (career .308/.374/.458, 133 wRC+), and would be a perfectly Bradley complement and Victorino backup. The problem, as you mentioned, is that they'd near to clear two outfield spots (out of Sizemore, Gomes, Nava, and Carp) to fit Denorfia on the roster. Hopefully you put either Carp or Nava in a trade to get a CF who may not be as good a hitter but who won't kill you in CF. Bradley would be at AAA. The Padres maybe looking to deal sooner rather than later because if they wait till July on a guy like Denofria, the return will be minimal.
|
|
alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 618
|
Post by alnipper on Apr 22, 2014 15:08:50 GMT -5
I do see Bradley making slow adjustments. It looks like the pitchers are adjusting already to his adjustments. Lets see if Bradley will adjust faster.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,881
|
Post by ericmvan on May 2, 2014 23:56:28 GMT -5
Swinging strikeout rate:
.176 JBJ before 4/25 .158 JBJ, season .151 MLB rate, 2014 .111 JBJ since 4/25
Looking strikeout rate:
.148 JBJ since 4/25 .129 JBJ season .122 JBJ before 4/25 .054 MLB rate, 2014
He hasn't shown any unusual tendency to strike out swinging. He's been taking an ungodly number of strike threes, and that's something he can learn to reduce.
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on May 3, 2014 8:28:07 GMT -5
He hasn't faced many of the pitchers he's now up against, so he's still figuring out what he's looking at. He has to see pitches to do that.
Something else I mentioned last year: he'll always have a higher strikeout rate because his isolated discipline is high. Once again, it's running 100+ points above his average. I think that's just part of his approach.
Add: My opinion, but he's also been getting squeezed a little at the plate. Umps don't ordinarily give that marginal stuff on the edges to rookies.
|
|
steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,818
|
Post by steveofbradenton on May 3, 2014 9:21:44 GMT -5
He hasn't faced many of the pitchers he's now up against, so he's still figuring out what he's looking at. He has to see pitches to do that. Something else I mentioned last year: he'll always have a higher strikeout rate because his isolated discipline is high. Once again, it's running 100+ points above his average. I think that's just part of his approach. Add: My opinion, but he's also been getting squeezed a little at the plate. Umps don't ordinarily give that marginal stuff on the edges to rookies. I also think he has been squeezed by the umps. As in any field you have to earn their respect as someone who really "knows" the strike-zone, and he will. I've mentioned this before, his 2-strike approach is still developing and he needs to (especially against lefties) go to left center more. His walks and the number of extra base hits are actually good, but he still is striking out too much. This stretch of April has really helped his overall confidence. Sizemore''s poor start has been a boon to Bradley's maturation. Hopefully Grady can get it together and be of help in left. Jackie is a real intelligent baseball player and will eventually figure out many things. And until that happens, let's just sit back an marvel at his defense.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on May 3, 2014 10:56:47 GMT -5
Swinging strikeout rate: .176 JBJ before 4/25 .158 JBJ, season .151 MLB rate, 2014 .111 JBJ since 4/25 Looking strikeout rate: .148 JBJ since 4/25 .129 JBJ season .122 JBJ before 4/25 .054 MLB rate, 2014 He hasn't shown any unusual tendency to strike out swinging. He's been taking an ungodly number of strike threes, and that's something he can learn to reduce. That's something I've always wondered about. Certain hitters just strike out a ton looking as opposed to swinging (Mike Carp is another guy I looked at in the offseason who had this trait). Is this just a small sample size artifact, or is it a sustainable "skill" with high year-to-year correlations? In other words, are there just certain hitters who are prone to strike out looking more than the MLB average? I couldn't find much research on the subject after a cursory search (just lots of stuff correlating whiff rate to strikeout rate, which explains much but not all of a hitter's strikeout rate). Intuitively, it seems like hitters who take a lot of pitches (which describes Bradley) might be prone to striking out looking more than the average hitter, and in a way that carries over year-to-year. Still, even if that's true, Bradley still looks like he's in store for major positive regression in terms of his looking strikeout rate. His minor league strikeout looking rates were always pretty low (career MiLB swinging strikeout rate of 12.5%, looking strikeout rate of just 4.6%), and his strikeout looking rate in the majors this year is just astronomically high (third-highest in baseball amongst hitters with 75+ PAs; on that list, Gomes ranks 1st and Nava ranks 14th). Once that improves, Bradley's offensive production should tic up a bit (hopefully enough to more than offset the BABIP regression that is likely coming-- his BABIP this year is .351, but his xBABIP is only .266).
|
|
|
Post by Oregon Norm on May 3, 2014 10:59:24 GMT -5
I worry about Sizemore, I'll admit it. He hasn't been the same since he folded up crashing into the wall playing center. One of the issues with the guy, has been his hiding of injuries in the past. That got him into a lot of trouble. I hope that's not the case this time. One thing for certain, he needs time off every few days.
I'm just glad Bradley's playing CF most of the games, taking the added pressure off of him.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Jun 10, 2014 13:31:50 GMT -5
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jun 10, 2014 14:40:39 GMT -5
I moved the above post from a gameday thread because I was afraid it would get lost. I was looking for splits vs. velocity (because I, too, figured that Bradley was having trouble versus plus velocity) and didn't realize Baseball Savant had them. Here's Bradley's full splits vs. 92+ mph fastballs. His strikeout rate (29%) and whiff rate (8.8%) aren't much higher versus 92+ fastballs than his overall rates (30.2%, 11.6%), but remember that by their nature, fastballs get fewer swings-and-misses than breaking/offspeed pitches. His overall strikeout rate vs. 92+ fastballs ranks 11th-worst in baseball, and pretty much all the names around him are big power slugger types. This is a problem. He especially needs to make more contact on fastballs in the zone. Farrell noted recently that they've been working on getting his swing a little shorter, and hopefully we see some improvement. I'm not sure that this is something he can really work on in the minor leagues, as there aren't a lot of guys sitting 92+ in the International League, so he might as well get the rest of the season to work on it in the majors.
|
|
|
Post by elguapo on Jun 10, 2014 14:54:10 GMT -5
Bradley is definitely not a good enough hitter yet While I would expect some growing pains / adjustment period, it's absolutely possible that Bradley would be a better offensive player vs. a Nava/Gomes platoon this season. So far: Nava/Gomes ~ .652 OPS Bradley Jr - .580 OPS I was thinking more about upside than downside but - yeesh.
|
|
|
Post by Guidas on Jun 10, 2014 15:43:03 GMT -5
While I was worried about Bradley having issues against quality breaking pitches, Cherrington recently made a comment that it's been his inability to hit fastballs, which was among his carrying tools, that's really mystified the front office. Amazed they haven't tried to get him to change his set-up to have the bat more engaged in the swing path from the outset. A real overhaul to get him to completely alter that swing would likely take months for him to gain comfort, but a slight change in where he holds the bat in his set-up he can integrate much more quickly.
Then again, you could just Charlie Lau his bat position so it's flat behind his ear and basically in the swing path already. The detraction on that set-up has always been that it's a slap-hitter, singles hitter set-up (though George Brett did OK with it, XBH-wise), but right now if Bradley was just slapping singles I bet he'd be elated.
|
|
|
Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 10, 2014 16:51:27 GMT -5
He swings like he's trying to jerk the ball out of the park. He's not going to be a power-hitter. Choke up and learn to go the other way and use that big, green thing to your advantage. I think with more success he'll go after these close 2 strike pitches. He's way too good defensively to give up on..
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jun 10, 2014 17:36:08 GMT -5
His hands are too busy before he swings.
|
|
|
Post by terriblehondo on Jun 10, 2014 17:53:15 GMT -5
He swings like he's trying to jerk the ball out of the park. He's not going to be a power-hitter. Choke up and learn to go the other way and use that big, green thing to your advantage. I think with more success he'll go after these close 2 strike pitches. He's way too good defensively to give up on.. Choke up and go the other way what a novel idea. Today the players do not even know what choke up means. Striking out 150 to 200 times a year no big deal. I expect some of the big power guys to K. Teddy Ballgame would choke with 2 strikes if it was good enough for the best hitter to live you would think you could get some Punch and Judy hitters today to do it.
|
|
|
Post by huskies15 on Jun 10, 2014 18:01:28 GMT -5
Ive noticed how much he seems to dance before the pitch, and this translates to his hands. Ive played on teams with guys who do this and it seemed to always hinder their abilities versus harder throwers because it inevitably makes their hands late because their lower half had too much going on. I prefer guys with a one step timing mechanism, just seems quieter and easier to maintain instead of the toe turn or taps. I love JBJ's defense and his passion for the game when he is loose. Seems like the kind of player you love to be around.
|
|
|
Post by ray88h66 on Jun 10, 2014 18:02:14 GMT -5
JBJ has 65 K's and plus D. Xander has 61 K's and minus D. The game sure has changed.
|
|
|
Post by James Dunne on Jun 10, 2014 19:14:08 GMT -5
JBJ has 65 K's and plus D. Xander has 61 K's and minus D. The game sure has changed. You mean since the days when Babe Ruth retired as the all-time leader in strikeouts? Or rather since the days when Mickey Mantle retired as the all-time leader in strikeouts? Or am I off entirely, and you mean instead that it has changed since the days when Reggie Jackson retired as the all-time leader in strikeouts? Even removing the point about there being a lot a hitter can do other than not strike out to be a good hitter, the biggest problem wih your analysis here is that Bogaerts has been to the plate 51 more times than Bradley. By your logic, we can compare Lester positively to Pedroia because Lester has struck out much less in his career.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Jun 10, 2014 19:17:25 GMT -5
By your logic, we can compare Lester positively to Pedroia because Lester has struck out much less in his career. Lester? Give me a break, the guy has walked 520 batters in his career. Give me a stud like Alfredo Aceves, who has only walked 129 despite being more than a year older than Lester!
|
|
|
Post by ray88h66 on Jun 10, 2014 19:19:10 GMT -5
JBJ has 65 K's and plus D. Xander has 61 K's and minus D. The game sure has changed. You mean since the days when Babe Ruth retired as the all-time leader in strikeouts? Or rather since the days when Mickey Mantle retired as the all-time leader in strikeouts? Or am I off entirely, and you mean instead that it has changed since the days when Reggie Jackson retired as the all-time leader in strikeouts? Even removing the point about there being a lot a hitter can do other than not strike out to be a good hitter, the biggest problem wih your analysis here is that Bogaerts has been to the plate 51 more times than Bradley. By your logic, we can compare Lester positively to Pedroia because Lester has struck out much less in his career. I'm talking about when defense was the most important thing with an up the middle player. Not that long ago.
|
|
|
Post by terriblehondo on Jun 11, 2014 11:44:25 GMT -5
JBJ has 65 K's and plus D. Xander has 61 K's and minus D. The game sure has changed. You mean since the days when Babe Ruth retired as the all-time leader in strikeouts? Or rather since the days when Mickey Mantle retired as the all-time leader in strikeouts? Or am I off entirely, and you mean instead that it has changed since the days when Reggie Jackson retired as the all-time leader in strikeouts? Even removing the point about there being a lot a hitter can do other than not strike out to be a good hitter, the biggest problem wih your analysis here is that Bogaerts has been to the plate 51 more times than Bradley. By your logic, we can compare Lester positively to Pedroia because Lester has struck out much less in his career. You mean BABE RUTH the guy who hit more home runs in a season than whole teams right. Yeah he struck out a ton. Oh wait lets compare how much he actually struck out. He never struck out more than 93 times in a year and was the premier power hitter in the game. JBJ and Xander are on pace to beat that by quite a bit. The guys you mention are all big time power guys for their era. Do you think in any way shape or form that JBJ will ever be in the guys you named power league. NO! He needs to put the ball in play! He will never match even Deweys power and the most he struck out was 125. Xander might but that remains to be seen and he is on pace to strike out over 150 times. Which is not good.
|
|
|
Post by terriblehondo on Jun 11, 2014 11:50:14 GMT -5
You mean since the days when Babe Ruth retired as the all-time leader in strikeouts? Or rather since the days when Mickey Mantle retired as the all-time leader in strikeouts? Or am I off entirely, and you mean instead that it has changed since the days when Reggie Jackson retired as the all-time leader in strikeouts? Even removing the point about there being a lot a hitter can do other than not strike out to be a good hitter, the biggest problem wih your analysis here is that Bogaerts has been to the plate 51 more times than Bradley. By your logic, we can compare Lester positively to Pedroia because Lester has struck out much less in his career. I'm talking about when defense was the most important thing with an up the middle player. Not that long ago. Everyone has forgotten about that since the Steroid era. Well that and Sabremetrics. You could have Ozzie at short and everyone would want to replace him with someone who could hit.
|
|
|
Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 12, 2014 11:06:19 GMT -5
You mean since the days when Babe Ruth retired as the all-time leader in strikeouts? Or rather since the days when Mickey Mantle retired as the all-time leader in strikeouts? Or am I off entirely, and you mean instead that it has changed since the days when Reggie Jackson retired as the all-time leader in strikeouts? Even removing the point about there being a lot a hitter can do other than not strike out to be a good hitter, the biggest problem wih your analysis here is that Bogaerts has been to the plate 51 more times than Bradley. By your logic, we can compare Lester positively to Pedroia because Lester has struck out much less in his career. You mean BABE RUTH the guy who hit more home runs in a season than whole teams right. Yeah he struck out a ton. Oh wait lets compare how much he actually struck out. He never struck out more than 93 times in a year and was the premier power hitter in the game. JBJ and Xander are on pace to beat that by quite a bit. The guys you mention are all big time power guys for their era. Do you think in any way shape or form that JBJ will ever be in the guys you named power league. NO! He needs to put the ball in play! He will never match even Deweys power and the most he struck out was 125. Xander might but that remains to be seen and he is on pace to strike out over 150 times. Which is not good. You do know that the game is completely different now than what it was, right? Babe Ruth was advanced for his era and while he was hitting home runs at an insane clip compared to the rest of the league, he also struck out a ton among his peers. Power hitters strike out. You also have to realize that since the end of the steroid era, teams are living with higher strike out rates to compensate for the lack of power. A guy who hits 35 home runs will always be a cornerstone piece to a franchise even if he strikes out 200 times, just look at Ginacarlo Stanton. Strike out rates have been climbing since the end of the era. Now, how does this relate to JBJ and Xander? Well for starters, you say that Xander doesn't have that kind of power potential in him? Why? He has a phenomenal OBP and is a 21 year old rookie. JBJ may not become a premier power hitter or even just premier hitter in general, but that doesn't mean he can't be a guy who can get a fair amount of singles and doubles with an above-average BA. He has shown great on-base skills in the minors and needs a lot of work in the majors to correct his issues. He might be the kind of guy who catches on long after the Red Sox give up on him.
|
|
|
Post by terriblehondo on Jun 12, 2014 11:46:44 GMT -5
You mean BABE RUTH the guy who hit more home runs in a season than whole teams right. Yeah he struck out a ton. Oh wait lets compare how much he actually struck out. He never struck out more than 93 times in a year and was the premier power hitter in the game. JBJ and Xander are on pace to beat that by quite a bit. The guys you mention are all big time power guys for their era. Do you think in any way shape or form that JBJ will ever be in the guys you named power league. NO! He needs to put the ball in play! He will never match even Deweys power and the most he struck out was 125. Xander might but that remains to be seen and he is on pace to strike out over 150 times. Which is not good. You do know that the game is completely different now than what it was, right? Babe Ruth was advanced for his era and while he was hitting home runs at an insane clip compared to the rest of the league, he also struck out a ton among his peers. Power hitters strike out. You also have to realize that since the end of the steroid era, teams are living with higher strike out rates to compensate for the lack of power. A guy who hits 35 home runs will always be a cornerstone piece to a franchise even if he strikes out 200 times, just look at Ginacarlo Stanton. Strike out rates have been climbing since the end of the era. Now, how does this relate to JBJ and Xander? Well for starters, you say that Xander doesn't have that kind of power potential in him? Why? He has a phenomenal OBP and is a 21 year old rookie. JBJ may not become a premier power hitter or even just premier hitter in general, but that doesn't mean he can't be a guy who can get a fair amount of singles and doubles with an above-average BA. He has shown great on-base skills in the minors and needs a lot of work in the majors to correct his issues. He might be the kind of guy who catches on long after the Red Sox give up on him. Yes MOST POWER HITTERS STRIKE OUT (tell Victor Martinez he thinks he is back in the old days). I love JBJ I did back flips when he was drafted. He will never be a power guy. So his swing needs to be shorter and needs to put the ball in play. I thought JBJ would hit and I still think he can well enough because of his D. But Sriking out 20% of the time is not going to fly. I said XANDER MIGHT but that remains to be seen. If he hits 30 homers I can live with 150 K's. I see so many guys strike out with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs that I want to puke. Cut your friggin swing down hit a grounder to short and score a run. Hit a grounder to 2nd with no one out to get the runner to 3rd. We need to get back to striking out is a bad thing in most situations. Waste a pitch foul it off the other way. Don't stand there and watch strike 3 right down the pipe.
|
|
|