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Jackie Bradley Jr. - does the glove outweigh the bat?
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Post by terriblehondo on Jun 12, 2014 12:01:07 GMT -5
Oh yeah in no way shape or form am I putting Xander in the same box as JBJ as far as hitting. But I am not putting him in Stantons box yet either. Stanton has as many homers as X has RBI's.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 12, 2014 12:39:46 GMT -5
You do know that the game is completely different now than what it was, right? Babe Ruth was advanced for his era and while he was hitting home runs at an insane clip compared to the rest of the league, he also struck out a ton among his peers. Power hitters strike out. You also have to realize that since the end of the steroid era, teams are living with higher strike out rates to compensate for the lack of power. A guy who hits 35 home runs will always be a cornerstone piece to a franchise even if he strikes out 200 times, just look at Ginacarlo Stanton. Strike out rates have been climbing since the end of the era. Now, how does this relate to JBJ and Xander? Well for starters, you say that Xander doesn't have that kind of power potential in him? Why? He has a phenomenal OBP and is a 21 year old rookie. JBJ may not become a premier power hitter or even just premier hitter in general, but that doesn't mean he can't be a guy who can get a fair amount of singles and doubles with an above-average BA. He has shown great on-base skills in the minors and needs a lot of work in the majors to correct his issues. He might be the kind of guy who catches on long after the Red Sox give up on him. Yes MOST POWER HITTERS STRIKE OUT (tell Victor Martinez he thinks he is back in the old days). I love JBJ I did back flips when he was drafted. He will never be a power guy. So his swing needs to be shorter and needs to put the ball in play. I thought JBJ would hit and I still think he can well enough because of his D. But Sriking out 20% of the time is not going to fly. I said XANDER MIGHT but that remains to be seen. If he hits 30 homers I can live with 150 K's. I see so many guys strike out with a runner on 3rd and less than 2 outs that I want to puke. Cut your friggin swing down hit a grounder to short and score a run. Hit a grounder to 2nd with no one out to get the runner to 3rd. We need to get back to striking out is a bad thing in most situations. Waste a pitch foul it off the other way. Don't stand there and watch strike 3 right down the pipe. So, just theoretical, but if JBJ hit .280/.370/.450 with 10 HR and struck out a 150 times, he'd be considered a failure at the plate and as a player? While I doubt Xander will mash at the same clip as Stanton, I don't see why he can't develop into a 30-35 HR guy in the later part of his career. Keep in mind that power is the last tool to develop, he's also 21 and Stanton is 24. Also, Xander plays a much more premium position and the level of offense he is capable of producing at the position far exceeds the norm regardless if he strikes out 150-200 times a season.
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Post by jmei on Jun 12, 2014 13:29:37 GMT -5
So, just theoretical, but if JBJ hit .280/.370/.450 with 10 HR and struck out a 150 times, he'd be considered a failure at the plate and as a player? The problem is that it's pretty damn difficult to hit .280 while striking out 150+ times, especially if you're not cranking out a ton of home runs. Thirteen players struck out 150+ times last year; the only one who hit above .280 was Chris Davis. Twenty-three did so in 2012, only only Choo, Headley, and Hamilton hit over .280. The old adage that sabermetrics doesn't care about strikeouts is outdated and inaccurate. Yes, a strikeout is worth as much as any other out from a results-based perspective, but it is very different from a ball-in-play out from a process-based perspective. If you don't put balls in play, it's very difficult for you to sustainably hit for a high average, and hitting for a high average helps you get on base, which I hear is kind of a big deal.
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Post by terriblehondo on Jun 12, 2014 17:02:43 GMT -5
Striking out 150 times a year with no power yes I consider that failure at the plate because he will not hit .280 or even .260. His value to me first and foremost is Defense. I want him to hit because I love watching him play center. I still think he can hit .260-.280 at the Major League level. But not with the swing and approach he is using now. He needs to shorten his swing and go the other way more. When he goes the other way he looks good. Shorten up stay inside the ball use left field. Fenway is built for a lefty to do that anyways.
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Post by elguapo on Jun 13, 2014 8:05:14 GMT -5
JBJ is not totally without distinction. As of this morning, he has the lowest AVG, SLG, OPS and WAR of any regular centerfielder in either league. If you look at the top 30 "CF" by plate appearances on FanGraphs, Bradley is 26th in WAR, behind Andre Ethier & Austin Jackson but ahead of Will Venable, Matt Kemp, our own Grady Sizemore, and a favorite offseason target of SoxProspects posters, Chris Young. Bad seasons happen even to good players. Perhaps aside from Sizemore & Kemp, who are injury cases, I would expect all those named to bounce back.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 13, 2014 8:14:42 GMT -5
Though I'll have to admit that I didn't know just how hard it was to hit .280 with 150K. I guess my bigger point is, do the strike outs = automatic failure or could someone with the slash line of .280/.370/.450 with ++ defense be considered a positive player? I personally like to use basic stats such as ERA, BA, et. to determine the success of a player over a single season and advanced saber stats to determine if this level of play is sustainable. For example if Sizemore went on a tear and had a .300 BA, but a BABIP .360/.370, I'd say he had a great season and that he shouldn't be knocked by any advanced stats, but moving forward, I wouldn't have very much trust in him.
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Post by jmei on Jun 13, 2014 8:45:53 GMT -5
I guess my bigger point is, do the strike outs = automatic failure or could someone with the slash line of .280/.370/.450 with ++ defense be considered a positive player? The problem is that it's virtually impossible to put up that line while striking out as often as Bradley has, as it would require a .400+ BABIP.
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Post by suttree on Jun 13, 2014 9:23:09 GMT -5
Unless you are Mike Trout.
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Post by terriblehondo on Jun 13, 2014 9:36:17 GMT -5
But JBJ has struck out as many times as Trout (and he is striking out to much) in 40 less at bats and with no power. If you do not have power put the ball in play.
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Post by elguapo on Jun 13, 2014 9:38:35 GMT -5
I guess my bigger point is, do the strike outs = automatic failure or could someone with the slash line of .280/.370/.450 with ++ defense be considered a positive player? The problem is that it's virtually impossible to put up that line while striking out as often as Bradley has, as it would require a .400+ BABIP. And a player with that line would be All-Star caliber, not merely a positive contributor.
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Post by suttree on Jun 13, 2014 10:58:54 GMT -5
But JBJ has struck out as many times as Trout (and he is striking out to much) in 40 less at bats and with no power. If you do not have power put the ball in play. I wasn't really comparing Trout to JBJ.
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Post by redsoxfan2 on Jun 13, 2014 13:11:01 GMT -5
Again, more theoretical than anything else,but since the odds of it happening are so low, it's just pointless banter. I hope JBJ is able to figure out an MLB strike zone sooner rather than later as his odds of putting up those kinds of numbers dwindle the more he does. I wouldn't say that him striking out 150 per season makes him a failure, what makes him a failure is the odds he's giving himself to succeed. If he could post a .400+ BABIP and have that kind of line, then the numbers stand for themselves, but that's a lot less likely to happen the more he strikes out. I don't care how a guy makes an out, as long as they can post good average, on-base, and SLG, which again, is less likely to happen the more a guy strikes out, but isn't considered a failure in my eyes if he is able to sustain good numbers over the course of the season.
I understand that .400+ BABIP an MLB '14 kind of absurd number.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 13, 2014 14:56:28 GMT -5
What sucks is that if JBJ were given the Jeter treatment on called balls/strikes, his OBP would probably be over .330. Guess he has to start hitting before that is possible. He seems to rarely get any help and often has an expanded zone.
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Post by grandsalami on Jun 25, 2014 20:19:56 GMT -5
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ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,881
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Post by ericmvan on Jul 8, 2014 6:55:55 GMT -5
Since he changed his stance, Bradley has struck out less often than everyone but Pedroia and Pierzynski, and has been the fourth best hitter on the team after Ortiz, Pedroia, and Napoli.
It's just 50 PA, but JBJ has hit .304 / .360 / .391 with a .160 K rate. While AJP, Xander, and Drew have been notoriously inept recently, JBJ has also been better than Holt and Nava.
These comparisons include just games in which both players played and had at least 2 PA (actually, they're all full games except one where Nava came in in the 6th). Holt and Pedroia are the two guys that have played all the games that JBJ did.
TAv (EqA) is estimated from OBP and SA, and is based on their relationship from a few year's back, so all the figures are too low (since TAv has a final adjustment for level of offense).
Name TAv JBJ Ortiz .319 .250 Pedroia .304 .269 Napoli .298 .271 Holt .255 .269 Nava .246 .263 Pierzy. .148 .281 Drew .087 .277 Bogaer. .082 .272
Name K% JBJ Napoli .375 .174 Bogaer. .354 .143 Drew .292 .174 Ortiz .182 .170 Nava .171 .139 Holt .169 .160 Pedroia .143 .160 Pierz. .116 .184 50 PA is tiny, but we know he made a major change and the results are dramatically different (as I noted in another thread, the drop in K% is statistically significant). Cause for (I think, only somewhat guarded) optimism.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 8, 2014 7:09:18 GMT -5
Watching JBJ establish himself and Xander adjust are probably two of the biggest keys to a successful post All Star break.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jul 8, 2014 7:21:37 GMT -5
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 8, 2014 8:07:35 GMT -5
These are the kind of adjustments young players make all the time. It's just that there's a perceived burden to deliver immediately on this team. That wasn't helped by the sky high expectations for Sizemore and the unrealistic projections for Victorino's playing time. He's been thrown into the fire given that both those were pipe dreams. The focus falls on him to fill in a lot of the blanks. Not much slack there.
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Post by suttree on Jul 8, 2014 9:07:54 GMT -5
These are the kind of adjustments young players make all the time. It's just that there's a perceived burden to deliver immediately on this team. That wasn't helped by the sky high expectations for Sizemore and the unrealistic projections for Victorino's playing time. He's been thrown into the fire given that both those were pipe dreams. The focus falls on him to fill in a lot of the blanks. Not much slack there. I think you could argue just the opposite, that JBJ has been given nothing but slack. To struggle as much as he has at the plate and still get regular playing time is rare in baseball. Coincidentally, the first time someone showed up that could take away JBJ's playing time (Mookie) he started to hit.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 8, 2014 9:18:06 GMT -5
I think it has more to do with the changed stance, not that he suddenly decided he better hit or else he'll lose his job. It's not Mookie has hit yet, either.
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Post by elguapo on Jul 8, 2014 9:29:16 GMT -5
I think you could argue just the opposite, that JBJ has been given nothing but slack. To struggle as much as he has at the plate and still get regular playing time is rare in baseball. Coincidentally, the first time someone showed up that could take away JBJ's playing time (Mookie) he started to hit. Pedroia 3.0 Napoli 2.0 Holt 1.8 Bradley 1.4 Ortiz 1.4 That's the full list of Sox hitters with bWAR>1. Throw in Nava/Gomes at 1.0 combined. Of the 30 "CF" with at least 230 plate appearances, Bradley's fWAR of 1.2 is 16th. He's been an average major league center fielder. Unless you don't believe fielding the ball should count? [The defensive samples are too small, but Bradley's fielding #s are roughly consistent with observation.] Look, on a very good team you might have a point that JBJ has gotten a lot of slack, but he's at least been above replacement level all season. If Victorino and Carp were healthy all year you consider playing Victorino in center with Bradley & Betts at Pawtucket and Sizemore/Torres as OF depth. As for your last point, you should be embarassed.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 8, 2014 10:53:32 GMT -5
These are the kind of adjustments young players make all the time. It's just that there's a perceived burden to deliver immediately on this team. That wasn't helped by the sky high expectations for Sizemore and the unrealistic projections for Victorino's playing time. He's been thrown into the fire given that both those were pipe dreams. The focus falls on him to fill in a lot of the blanks. Not much slack there. I think you could argue just the opposite, that JBJ has been given nothing but slack. To struggle as much as he has at the plate and still get regular playing time is rare in baseball. Coincidentally, the first time someone showed up that could take away JBJ's playing time (Mookie) he started to hit. You're joking on that last one right? Let me get this straight, Bradley has been slacking off, but decided to get it on after real competition showed up? Go to Baseball Reference. Look up any number of players. See how they started their careers. Check out Paul Blair, or Dwight Evans. This looks like one of the best centerfielders in the game. He also gets on base at a very good clip and is making the adjustments to get his hitting going. The overblown expectations of a spoiled fandom aside, he looks to have a future all things considered.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 8, 2014 11:06:11 GMT -5
I think it has more to do with the changed stance, not that he suddenly decided he better hit or else he'll lose his job. It's not Mookie has hit yet, either. Mookie has had 20 PA's, so it's pretty unfair to say he hasn't hit yet. He hasn't gotten the chance. I have to say, I'm not happy with the way Farrell is handling/has handled the young guys. I was all for Mookie getting called up, but it's incredibly stupid to call him up and not let him play. I'm glad Bradley's playing better, but why not put Mookie in there for Nava sometimes, play him in CF or RF against lefties, or something? He's been up for a couple weeks now, and he's gotten into 5 games. What's the point of calling him up then? I thought the same with Bogaerts last year, although I'm not sure it's had any impact on him this season, I don't get why he didn't get more reps last year, especially against lefties, given the way Drew hits them. I don't think aggressive placement has been the problem with our player development- I think it's a lack of ABs for guys once they've been pushed to a level where they will initially struggle, although in Bradley's case, we have to give credit for their faith in him I guess
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 8, 2014 11:11:47 GMT -5
I'm not down on Mookie. My point was that JBJ isn't hitting because he all of a sudden feels his PT is threatened, as almost every poster since has pointed out.
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Post by suttree on Jul 8, 2014 11:48:39 GMT -5
I think you could argue just the opposite, that JBJ has been given nothing but slack. To struggle as much as he has at the plate and still get regular playing time is rare in baseball. Coincidentally, the first time someone showed up that could take away JBJ's playing time (Mookie) he started to hit. Pedroia 3.0 Napoli 2.0 Holt 1.8 Bradley 1.4 Ortiz 1.4 That's the full list of Sox hitters with bWAR>1. Throw in Nava/Gomes at 1.0 combined. Of the 30 "CF" with at least 230 plate appearances, Bradley's fWAR of 1.2 is 16th. He's been an average major league center fielder. Unless you don't believe fielding the ball should count? [The defensive samples are too small, but Bradley's fielding #s are roughly consistent with observation.] Look, on a very good team you might have a point that JBJ has gotten a lot of slack, but he's at least been above replacement level all season. If Victorino and Carp were healthy all year you consider playing Victorino in center with Bradley & Betts at Pawtucket and Sizemore/Torres as OF depth. As for your last point, you should be embarassed. Since you apparently don't know the definition of coincidentally, I think the shame is in your corner bucko.
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