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Xander Bogaerts: 2014 Predictions
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Post by charliezink16 on Mar 31, 2014 2:02:19 GMT -5
This offseason was especially long due to how excited I was to see Bogaerts in action. Now here I am, the night before opening day, thinking that people are underestimating Bogaerts (like that's possible). I put the 4 projection systems together, via fangraphs, and found Bogaerts' average expected production according to the 4 sources.
Zips: .267/.331/.429/.760, 16 HR, 46/135 BB/K, 2.7 WAR
Fans: .281/.361/.454/.815, 17 HR, 59/122 BB/K, 4.4 WAR
Steamer: .263/.324/.416/.740, 15 HR, 43/110 BB/K, 2.3 WAR
Oliver: .269/.343/.436/.779, 16 HR, 59/141 BB/K, 3.8 WAR
Average: .270/.340/.434/.774, 16 HR, 52/127 BB/K, 3.3 WAR
Me: .295/.360/.470/.830, 20 HR, 65/100 BB/K, 4.9 WAR
3.3 WAR would rank T7 for eligible shortstops in 2013. I think Xander will outperform those numbers. All 4 projections severely underestimate the patient approach he boasted throughout the playoffs. I know 27 AB's is a SSS, in fact so small that some of you will cringe while reading this, but he did have 6 walks to 9 K's against some of MLB's best pitchers in the postseason. The way he fought back from 0-2 counts from the likes of Scherzer and Sanchez was so damn impressive. Simply put, a BB/K around the park of 52/127 ain't happening. An extra off season can only do wonders for Bogaerts, more so than any other player on the roster. After 2011, people boasted Bogaerts' power, but felt that he had room for improvement w/ the hit tool. They also shot down any chances of him sticking at SS. In 2012, he hit .307 and drastically improved his defensive game, enough to keep him at SS. After 2012, specifically his time in Portland w/ a 1/21 BB/K, the narrative was that Bogaerts would have trouble in the upper minors if he didn't improve his plate approach. Of course, he made drastic improvements in that department the following season. So what I've learned from his minor league career is that I should never doubt the great Xander. I don't see his K/BB ratio approaching 2.5. He may end up hitting between 15-17 HR's, but the fact that all projections are so close in this measure bothers me. I don't think anyone would be surprised to see him hit 20-25. Finally, the .270 is too low to me. Via mlb.com's prospect list, Bogaerts future hit tool and power tool are 60 and 70 respectively, but that's the future ranking. In my opinion Bogaerts' hit tool is ahead of his power tool right now, and makes him capable of being a .300 hitter from the get-go.
Anyway, I was curious as to what the board expects from Xander. I'm overly optimistic, and I'm very aware of this, but these projection systems haven't followed X throughout his minor league career like we have. His maturity, skills, and ridiculous learning curve put X at another level. This thread will surely separate the optimists from the realists!
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Post by Oregon Norm on Mar 31, 2014 8:12:35 GMT -5
He'd had a very good approach in the lower minors before AA. I always thought the lack of walks in his first short stay at the end of 2012 was because he was just raking at that point. The team only had to mention to him to stay with the program. Not only did he show that patience and selectivity on his second stay in AA and then in AAA, he seemed to improve in the majors, getting advice from Nava, the most disciplined hitter on the team.
I think he'll have a very good year, North of .270 I believe and I think he can reach 20 HRs also. The models that regress back to some presumed ability have nothing to regress on, and they don't take into account what we saw of his hyper-professional approach in the playoffs. He's also in a very good lineup and he'll see some pitches. He'll do fine I believe.
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Post by rjp313jr on Mar 31, 2014 8:14:32 GMT -5
I love Xander and think he's going to be good this season, but be careful with your expectations. You're looking at the 6bb vs 9k as a good thing only and ignoring the fact he structure out 9 tines in 27 ABs.
I would be more surprised if he hit 20-25 HRs than I would be if he hit .300, but don't expect either.
I expect some ups and downs, probably a slower start and him to really come on the second half. He's shown an ability to adjust, but a young hitters most difficult challenge often times is to preform once he's got a scouting report against him.
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Post by jmei on Mar 31, 2014 8:58:38 GMT -5
I think you're being pretty optimistic. Xander is only 21 years old, and while he will likely approach or exceed a .295/.360/.470 line in his prime, it is pretty bullish to expect him to do so in his first full season in the major leagues. Drawing from a pretty small sample in the playoffs is dangerous, as well. For instance, a few of the walks he drew on full-count pitches were pretty damn close to strikes, at least a few of which were easily 50/50 or worse odds. Yes, he improved his plate discipline a lot last year, but there's still improvement to be made, especially in terms of swinging at pitches too close to take with two strikes, and the major league learning curve is the steepest of them all. To be more specific, hitting .295 is going to be pretty difficult if he strikes out as often as he did in the minor leagues. Bogaerts has always struck out 17+% of the time in the minor leagues, with all but one season (his brief 2013 stay in Pawtucket) above 19%. It's reasonable to expect that to rise a little in his first extended taste of the major leagues, and a pretty conservative estimate would have him striking out a little higher than 20%, which is where most of the projections have him (for what it's worth, in a tiny sample, he struck out 26% of the time last year in the regular season and 29% of the time in the postseason). Of the 29 qualified hitters who hit .295+ last year, only two struck out 20%+ of the time (Chris Johnson, Paul Goldschmidt) and five more struck out between 18-20% of the time (Cuddyer, Trout, Freeman, Werth, Votto). Moreover, estimates to translate scouted hitting tools to production suggest that Xander's future 60 hit tool only translates to a .282 average, and that's at his peak. It's very reasonable to expect him to hit closer to the .270 mark next year, and if he does that, you have to pull back the OBP/SLG as well, and you end up with something close to what the projections have. |
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Post by charliezink16 on Sept 28, 2014 16:01:19 GMT -5
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Post by redsox4242 on Sept 28, 2014 16:43:28 GMT -5
This offseason was especially long due to how excited I was to see Bogaerts in action. Now here I am, the night before opening day, thinking that people are underestimating Bogaerts (like that's possible). I put the 4 projection systems together, via fangraphs, and found Bogaerts' average expected production according to the 4 sources. Zips: .267/.331/.429/.760, 16 HR, 46/135 BB/K, 2.7 WAR Fans: .281/.361/.454/.815, 17 HR, 59/122 BB/K, 4.4 WAR Steamer: .263/.324/.416/.740, 15 HR, 43/110 BB/K, 2.3 WAR Oliver: .269/.343/.436/.779, 16 HR, 59/141 BB/K, 3.8 WAR Average: .270/.340/.434/.774, 16 HR, 52/127 BB/K, 3.3 WAR Me: .295/.360/.470/.830, 20 HR, 65/100 BB/K, 4.9 WAR3.3 WAR would rank T7 for eligible shortstops in 2013. I think Xander will outperform those numbers. All 4 projections severely underestimate the patient approach he boasted throughout the playoffs. I know 27 AB's is a SSS, in fact so small that some of you will cringe while reading this, but he did have 6 walks to 9 K's against some of MLB's best pitchers in the postseason. The way he fought back from 0-2 counts from the likes of Scherzer and Sanchez was so damn impressive. Simply put, a BB/K around the park of 52/127 ain't happening. An extra off season can only do wonders for Bogaerts, more so than any other player on the roster. After 2011, people boasted Bogaerts' power, but felt that he had room for improvement w/ the hit tool. They also shot down any chances of him sticking at SS. In 2012, he hit .307 and drastically improved his defensive game, enough to keep him at SS. After 2012, specifically his time in Portland w/ a 1/21 BB/K, the narrative was that Bogaerts would have trouble in the upper minors if he didn't improve his plate approach. Of course, he made drastic improvements in that department the following season. So what I've learned from his minor league career is that I should never doubt the great Xander. I don't see his K/BB ratio approaching 2.5. He may end up hitting between 15-17 HR's, but the fact that all projections are so close in this measure bothers me. I don't think anyone would be surprised to see him hit 20-25. Finally, the .270 is too low to me. Via mlb.com's prospect list, Bogaerts future hit tool and power tool are 60 and 70 respectively, but that's the future ranking. In my opinion Bogaerts' hit tool is ahead of his power tool right now, and makes him capable of being a .300 hitter from the get-go. Anyway, I was curious as to what the board expects from Xander. I'm overly optimistic, and I'm very aware of this, but these projection systems haven't followed X throughout his minor league career like we have. His maturity, skills, and ridiculous learning curve put X at another level. This thread will surely separate the optimists from the realists! Your Prediction will happen next year, Xander made adjustments late in the season and cut down on his strikeouts. He batted over 300 in September. I am excited about his progress and we need to remember he is a 21 year old. |
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Post by jmei on Sept 28, 2014 18:18:03 GMT -5
Your Prediction will happen next year, Xander made adjustments late in the season and cut down on his strikeouts. He batted over 300 in September. I am excited about his progress and we need to remember he is a 21 year old. Here's his batting line since he returned from his concussion on August 30th: .311/.315/.485, .345 wOBA, 118 wRC+ (109 PAs) 1.8% BB, 18.3% K, .175 ISO (4 home runs), .341 BABIP 39.6% oswing, 66.7% zswing, 69% ocontact, 91.1% zcontact, 45.8% zone, 69.7% fstrike, 9% swstrike (compared to his entire year plate discipline stats, he's swinging more often, making more contact, but with more first-pitch strikes and about the same swinging strike rate) He is making more contact and hitting the ball harder, but two walks in 109 PAs is still somewhat of a red flag. |
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Post by brianthetaoist on Sept 28, 2014 18:32:36 GMT -5
Haha ... solid respect for calling attention to your missed prediction. For what it's worth, I was pretty sure Bogaerts was going to be an offensive force this year, too. |
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