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Red Sox outfield roster crunch
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Post by jmei on Apr 20, 2014 15:55:57 GMT -5
Balls in play are characterized as line drives at the discretion of whomever is charting the game that day. Again dude, I know you don't really enjoy watching the games and prefer to evaluate players based on what is on fangraphs, but I don't see a guy that is really hitting a ton of rockets. Your only response is to question the judgment of official scorers? I mean, they aren't perfect, and not all line drives are made equally (i.e., it's possible Nava is hitting a lot of weak liners that "shouldn't" be hits). But I trust the judgment of a bunch of league officials whose jobs are literally to characterize balls in play much more than the clearly biased recollection of an admitted Nava hater. Your continued typecasting of Nava as some punch-and-judy hitter who has apparently just gotten lucky for 1100+ PAs is just wrong, and you've never been able to marshal much evidence for it besides desperately clinging to every little slump he has. I'm also tired of this "you don't watch the games" bull****. Here's literally a thousand pieces of evidence to the contrary. But, you know, why bother making a well-reasoned and well-researched argument when you can just resort to ad hominem mud-slinging.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 20, 2014 18:28:42 GMT -5
Originally, the only question anyone had about Sizemore was about his health.
The next question will be whether Sizemore is going to end up better than Nava. /stirring the pot
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Post by jmei on Apr 20, 2014 19:24:20 GMT -5
Did you know: Grady Sizemore is current striking out at the lowest rate of his career, and it isn't particularly close. He's striking out 12.1% of the time so far this year; his previous career-best is 17.4%, during his seven-win season in 2008. That's pretty amazing.
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 4,171
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Post by jimoh on Apr 21, 2014 5:33:34 GMT -5
Balls in play are characterized as line drives at the discretion of whomever is charting the game that day. Again dude, I know you don't really enjoy watching the games and prefer to evaluate players based on what is on fangraphs, but I don't see a guy that is really hitting a ton of rockets. Your only response is to question the judgment of official scorers? I mean, they aren't perfect, and not all line drives are made equally (i.e., it's possible Nava is hitting a lot of weak liners that "shouldn't" be hits). But I trust the judgment of a bunch of league officials whose jobs are literally to characterize balls in play much more than the clearly biased recollection of an admitted Nava hater. Your continued typecasting of Nava as some punch-and-judy hitter who has apparently just gotten lucky for 1100+ PAs is just wrong, and you've never been able to marshal much evidence for it besides desperately clinging to every little slump he has. I'm also tired of this "you don't watch the games" bull****. Here's literally a thousand pieces of evidence to the contrary. But, you know, why bother making a well-reasoned and well-researched argument when you can just resort to ad hominem mud-slinging. Moonstone, your arms and legs have been cut off. Time to stop saying "It's just a flesh wound."
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Post by moonstone2 on Apr 22, 2014 23:36:30 GMT -5
Balls in play are characterized as line drives at the discretion of whomever is charting the game that day. Again dude, I know you don't really enjoy watching the games and prefer to evaluate players based on what is on fangraphs, but I don't see a guy that is really hitting a ton of rockets. Your only response is to question the judgment of official scorers? I mean, they aren't perfect, and not all line drives are made equally (i.e., it's possible Nava is hitting a lot of weak liners that "shouldn't" be hits). But I trust the judgment of a bunch of league officials whose jobs are literally to characterize balls in play much more than the clearly biased recollection of an admitted Nava hater. Your continued typecasting of Nava as some punch-and-judy hitter who has apparently just gotten lucky for 1100+ PAs is just wrong, and you've never been able to marshal much evidence for it besides desperately clinging to every little slump he has. I'm also tired of this "you don't watch the games" bull****. Here's literally a thousand pieces of evidence to the contrary. But, you know, why bother making a well-reasoned and well-researched argument when you can just resort to ad hominem mud-slinging.
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Post by moonstone2 on Apr 23, 2014 0:06:29 GMT -5
Wonky computer.
Nava is a punch and Judy hitter who's numbers are not indicative of his true level of talent. That can happen when a player has many partial seasons on his resume.
The problem is that pitchers have adjusted to him by throwing him more fastballs. The result has been weaker contact, more Ks and fewer walks. This was actually going on for a long stretch last year.
The reason I say that you don't watch the games, other than to successfully antagonize you, is that you seem to lean on a numbers off of fangraphs regardless of if those numbers match reality. You can't argue that Nava is really hitting rockets when anyone who is watching can clearly see that isn't true. In general if a number tells you it's raining when the sky is clear question the number.
There is nothing official about the categorization of balls in play. They are categorized by employees of statistics companies NOT by league officials. Over time line drive last do result in hits much more often than other types of balls in play so the methodology isn't totally flawed. But in this case we are talking about less than ten balls in play. Only a couple of mistakes can really change the overall number. This early in the season a line drive rate really doesn't mean much.
Tomorrow or Thursday this is going to be resolved. At this point even Alex Spier said tonight that Nava going down was a "strong possibility" mentioning his sitting recently with a right handed starter.
If that happens Nava's love contingent will become incensed. Nava is basically the same guy as Miguel Cabrera. Fangraphs says so!
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Post by mgoetze on Apr 23, 2014 0:23:00 GMT -5
Time to stop feeding the troll, guys.
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Post by DesignatedForAssignment on Apr 23, 2014 6:56:23 GMT -5
Nava getting optioned today to bring up a 13th pitcher to re-inforce bullpen. Must be true, I heard it on the radio.
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Post by jmei on Apr 23, 2014 10:16:50 GMT -5
The reason I say that you don't watch the games, other than to successfully antagonize you, is that you seem to lean on a numbers off of fangraphs regardless of if those numbers match reality. You can't argue that Nava is really hitting rockets when anyone who is watching can clearly see that isn't true. In general if a number tells you it's raining when the sky is clear question the number. I cite a lot of data because it is far more objective than the selective perceptions of someone who openly admits he dislikes the player he's evaluating. It provides an unbiased (in both the cognitive and mathematical sense) baseline from which we can provide meaningful analysis. Otherwise we're just throwing opinions out there without anything to back them up. No, Nava has not been hitting the ball well this season, but he has indeed hit some rockets and has been the victim of some bad luck. Nava is a punch and Judy hitter who's numbers are not indicative of his true level of talent. That can happen when a player has many partial seasons on his resume. The problem is that pitchers have adjusted to him by throwing him more fastballs. The result has been weaker contact, more Ks and fewer walks. This was actually going on for a long stretch last year. Actually, this year, Nava has had his best results on four-seam fastballs. He's hitting line drives on a third of the fastballs he puts in play and has a .519 slugging percentage off the pitch. Instead, his real struggles this year have come against offspeed and breaking pitches. Out of 18 plate appearances that have ended with an offspeed/breaking pitch, he has eight strikeouts against only one hit (a single), as well as a walk and a HBP. When he swings at fastballs, his results haven't been that bad, but he just needs to swing at them more often. The real issue is that he's been overly passive and needs to swing more at strikes (even if it means swinging earlier in counts). The percentage of pitches he's seen in the zone has been similar to past years, but he's swinging at a career-low number of pitches in the strike zone. That means he falls behind in the count and has to protect the plate with two strikes, leading him to swing-and-miss or weakly hit two-strike offspeed/breaking pitches (14 of his 18 PAs that have ended with an offspeed/breaking pitch have come with two strikes). That seems to be an adjustment pitchers are making against him, and he needs to make the right counter-adjustment. I'm confident it will come. ----- Nava is going to be optioned down today. I still think trading Carp gives them the best roster, but if that's not possible, optioning Nava is the right move ( something I argued earlier in the thread). The regular outfield going forward should be Victorino in right, Bradley in center, and a Sizemore/Gomes platoon in left. Hopefully, Victorino can stay on the field and give them a boost both offensively and defensively. Sidenote: with Nava likely to be optioned, the Red Sox are really, really right-handed. Of their best five hitters, four are right-handed (Ortiz is the lone lefty; the four righties are Pedroia, Napoli, Bogaerts, and Victorino), and a bunch of lefties bring up the rear (Sizemore, Bradley, Pierzynski, and Holt). Farrell will need to resist the urge to stick with alternating lefties and righties in the lineup and just put their best hitters as early as possible. Something like Victorino, Pedroia, Ortiz, Napoli, Sizemore, Bogaerts, Pierzynski, Bradley, Holt. They just cannot afford to hit either of Bogaerts or Victorino any later than 6th in the order, even if it means having a stretch of three lefties instead.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 23, 2014 10:41:17 GMT -5
How many months does Sizemore get before he's DFA'ed?
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Post by soxfan06 on Apr 23, 2014 11:31:28 GMT -5
Can we get a do over on our entire OF situation? It really is terrible.
Victorino is going to have to come in and be some kind of super star to redeem it. I already hope the Red Sox are scouring the trade market to find a long term replacement outfielder.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 23, 2014 11:33:00 GMT -5
Well I guess it's party time for moonstone. We keep Carp and Sizemore on the roster even though they're both so bad defensively, they make Nava look like a gold glove winner.
And what's even funnier is that as bad as Nava has been, he's been better than Sizemore vs. RHP.
wRC+ Nava - 71, Sizemore - 37.
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Post by soxfan06 on Apr 23, 2014 11:43:16 GMT -5
Can Sizemore just retire yet? God, so annoyed that we were the ones that bit on that.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 23, 2014 12:24:54 GMT -5
Another thing to remember. The one and only reason why Carp was acquired in the first place was because we didn't know how Napoli would hold up. Well, he is holding up. Why is he still here? This problem really was overlooked last season.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 23, 2014 12:43:05 GMT -5
Another thing to remember. The one and only reason why Carp was acquired in the first place was because we didn't know how Napoli would hold up. Well, he is holding up. Why is he still here? This problem really was overlooked last season. What problem?
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 23, 2014 12:46:03 GMT -5
Another thing to remember. The one and only reason why Carp was acquired in the first place was because we didn't know how Napoli would hold up. Well, he is holding up. Why is he still here? This problem really was overlooked last season. What problem? Outfield depth. Playing Nava in RF way too often. (and now Sizemore who is even worse) Having a legitimate backup for RF/CF since we've got a rookie in CF and a RF made out of glass. If it's not crystal clear by now, it should be.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 23, 2014 13:03:34 GMT -5
Outfield depth was one of the reasons the Red Sox won the World Series last year. Daniel Nava isn't a good defensively in right, but his bat basically made him the best backup right fielder in baseball anyway. The Red Sox won because they were able to play Nava rather than, say, Vernon Wells or Mitch Maier or someone.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 23, 2014 13:22:17 GMT -5
Outfield depth was one of the reasons the Red Sox won the World Series last year. Daniel Nava isn't a good defensively in right, but his bat basically made him the best backup right fielder in baseball anyway. The Red Sox won because they were able to play Nava rather than, say, Vernon Wells or Mitch Maier or someone. He was supposed to be our starting LF on the long end of the platoon. But he played more RF than LF. When he's in RF, we're not as good in LF. And this year, they aren't looking good at all in the OF. And now Nava isn't even on the team.
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 23, 2014 13:25:24 GMT -5
Right. But Gomes in left and Nava in right was a better fallback option when the starting right fielder got hurt than any other team in the league had. That's my point here. The Red Sox won last year because Shane Victorino was hurt a lot but the Red Sox were still able to field a solid major league outfield when he was. Of course they were worse when the starter got injured. That's the nature of starters being better than their backups. I think you have an unreasonable expectation of how good the depth should be.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 23, 2014 13:35:05 GMT -5
Right. But Gomes in left and Nava in right was a better fallback option when the starting right fielder got hurt than any other team in the league had. That's my point here. The Red Sox won last year because Shane Victorino was hurt a lot but the Red Sox were still able to field a solid major league outfield when he was. Of course they were worse when the starter got injured. That's the nature of starters being better than their backups. I think you have an unreasonable expectation of how good the depth should be. Actually, I'm saying it's absurd that Nava isn't our OF depth anymore just because we can't lose Carp. My expectation is that we have better depth, not more of it stashed in the minors with options.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 23, 2014 13:40:58 GMT -5
Nava isn't here right now because he's been terrible.
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Post by jimed14 on Apr 23, 2014 13:46:39 GMT -5
Nava isn't here right now because he's been terrible. And Sizemore isn't? And Carp because he's completely useless in the field gets protected from facing LHP unlike Nava? I don't care how terrible Nava has been. He's our 3rd best OF being asked to do too much because no one else could do it.
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Post by rjp313jr on Apr 23, 2014 13:50:19 GMT -5
So your defense is that the other guys suck too?
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Post by James Dunne on Apr 23, 2014 13:50:58 GMT -5
Right. But Gomes in left and Nava in right was a better fallback option when the starting right fielder got hurt than any other team in the league had. That's my point here. The Red Sox won last year because Shane Victorino was hurt a lot but the Red Sox were still able to field a solid major league outfield when he was. Of course they were worse when the starter got injured. That's the nature of starters being better than their backups. I think you have an unreasonable expectation of how good the depth should be. Actually, I'm saying it's absurd that Nava isn't our OF depth anymore just because we can't lose Carp. My expectation is that we have better depth, not more of it stashed in the minors with options. I agree with you, re: Carp and Nava. I think Nava is the better player and the better fit for the roster, despite his poor play so far this year. I disagree as far as the quality of the depth, in general. It seems that you would prefer the Red Sox to have better defense from their depth. With Bradley and Victorino as the starters, I really don't think that's the case. I don't think too many teams out there have better 3rd/4th/5th outfielders than Sizemore, Gomes and Nava. The fact that neither of the last two are good defensively just isn't a huge worry for me, since they are (historically) so much better at hitting than the traditional backup outfielder. The guys they are backups for are plus defenders so it's not a situation where they need a late game defensive replacement. If they were still playing, say, Manny Ramirez, then I might want a better defensive outfielder on my bench. And yes, I know that I spoke before the season that it made sense to keep Carp over Bradley. I'll admit that I was wrong about that, mostly because I overrated how well Sizemore could play center.
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Post by jmei on Apr 23, 2014 13:53:21 GMT -5
Right. But Gomes in left and Nava in right was a better fallback option when the starting right fielder got hurt than any other team in the league had. That's my point here. The Red Sox won last year because Shane Victorino was hurt a lot but the Red Sox were still able to field a solid major league outfield when he was. Of course they were worse when the starter got injured. That's the nature of starters being better than their backups. I think you have an unreasonable expectation of how good the depth should be. Actually, I'm saying it's absurd that Nava isn't our OF depth anymore just because we can't lose Carp. My expectation is that we have better depth, not more of it stashed in the minors with options. Again, Nava is in Pawtucket, not banished to Siberia. He will be called up if anyone is injured or if Sizemore makes it clear that he is not a productive MLB player anymore. Yes, Sizemore has been slumping both offensively and defensively over the past week or so. But it's not at all clear that he is such a worse overall player vis-a-vis Nava that it makes sense to jettison him altogether. The same is arguably true for Mike Carp. ADD: I don't care how terrible Nava has been. He's our 3rd best OF being asked to do too much because no one else could do it. It's not about ordinal ranking, it's about relative value. Nava may be the third best outfielder on the roster, but the gap between him and the fourth (Sizemore) or fifth (Carp) best options are arguably small enough that you would rather play the slightly worse players ahead of him rather than jettison them entirely.
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