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Post by jmei on May 2, 2014 14:21:41 GMT -5
With Baseball America's recent video scouting report on Mercedes, I figured it's about time he got his own thread. They see him as a guy with a ceiling of a 2/3 starter and a floor of a late-innings reliever, with a 70 fastball, 65 curve, and 55 change. Alex Speier created some considerable buzz this spring when he talked up his combination of mid-to-high-90s heat and sharp curveball. Our own Ian Cundall was one of the first to write him up last year in Lowell, where he flashed intriguing but raw stuff. What do we have in Mercedes? He made the jump to Salem this year as a 22-year-old, and has been piggybacking out of the pen, with most of his outings coming in three to four-inning stints. I had him ticketed as a reliever prior to this year, but I'm starting to think he could stick as a starter. The Speier article above mentions that he had a finger injury last year that hurt his ability to throw his curveball, but now that it's healed, that's become his best secondary pitch, with late break and swing-and-miss potential. If he really has a plus fastball and two above-average secondary pitches, well, that's an ideal starter's arsenal. Mercedes also has the sort of frame that would lend itself well to the rigors of starting (though, the downside of that is that he'll need to work on his conditioning/weight as he gets older). Will he stay in the piggyback role all year, or is there a chance that he'll move into the Salem rotation later this year as guys get promoted or rotation slots open due to injury? Remember that he only got 63.3 IP last year in Lowell (though he likely also got a good number of innings in XST), so he probably won't throw much more than 100 innings this year, and starting him out as a piggyback starter would be a nice way of controlling his innings total. The front office may also have wanted to ease him in, as he skipped Greenville entirely. But I hope he ends up in the rotation proper by the end of the year, if only so he maximizes the number of innings he throws, which would give him more of a chance to stick as a starter. But I'm totally on the Mercedes bandwagon, and he's the pitcher I'm most excited about in that next wave of guys. He just seems like an potential stud in the making. That fastball not only has plus-to-better velocity, but also excellent sinking action, which is going to get him tons of ground balls. Batted ball data in the minors can be a little sketchy, but even the worst stringers in the world can differentiate between a ball hit on the ground and a ball hit in the air, and I think minor league GB% are pretty predictive and useful. Mercedes has a 53.3% ground ball rate (and 57.7% last year), which is pretty excellent, and he combines that with an excellent strikeout rate (8.6 K/9) and an above-average walk rate (2.7 BB/9). Now, he's still really raw with his command and needs to work on maintaining his release point (even my untrained eye noticed some inconsistencies in the BA video above). Perhaps working out of the bullpen lets him air it out in a way that he won't be able to maintain in a true starting role, and he'll sit more low-90s than mid-90s as a starter. He's also not that projectable (he's pretty well filled-in already), and because he signed at age 20, he's not as age-advanced as you might expect from an international signee in his third season in the system. But those are pretty minor nit-picks, and I think he could fly up the rankings and be the system's next great pitching prospect. |
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Post by jimed14 on May 2, 2014 14:56:48 GMT -5
I'm getting quite interested in him as well, especially after that BA report. He really needs a better thread title like Drive the Simon Mercedes to Boston Thread.
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Post by brianthetaoist on May 2, 2014 15:52:16 GMT -5
I don't care at all about age advancement in this context ... except in the sense of being curious why he signed so late (and had his contract with the Giants voided before). But age advancement isn't as important to me as how quickly a pitcher moves, and he's on a good trajectory so far.
I definitely think he's a starter long-term, or at least has that potential. I'd guess that they'll let him start the first inning later in the year once they feel comfortable that they've throttled his innings enough for the year. He's really intriguing, and I can see him really popping on prospect lists later this year if he begins starting the first inning and stays consistent with his results. I can see why Norris was so ga-ga about the Sox system in that podcast ... he already knew about a lot of good players in the system, and suddenly there's this other guy just popping up out of nowhere on him. He must feel like there are talented guys all over the place.
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Post by jmei on May 2, 2014 16:36:12 GMT -5
Mercedes had his original contract voided with the Giants due to identity/age issues, sat out a year, and signed with the Red Sox for twice as much a year later. He's an interest signing for many of the reasons Alex Speier describes here: Just fascinating stuff that I had totally forgotten. Mercedes is in many ways emblematic of the way the front office has completely overhauled its international strategy in the past few years. So far, the Eddie Romero era looks like it has spectacular potential, between Mercedes, Margot, Rijo, Devers, Lin, and what looked like an intriguing DSL roster last year. PS: how hilarious is it that he tried to pretend he was 16 when he signed with the Giants? I think he was already something like 6'4" 220-ish at the time. That's some Miguel Tejada-level shenanigans. |
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Post by ericmvan on May 2, 2014 16:58:36 GMT -5
I'm getting quite interested in him as well, especially after that BA report. He really needs a better thread title like Drive the Simon Mercedes to Boston Thread. Looking forward, of course, to announcers saying "Mercedes bends a curve over the outside corner ..." The disparity between the pitching and hitting talent at Salem is now even more striking. Hopefully Asauaje gets promoted and continues to hit. And perhaps there's also some hope for Aneury Tavarez, at a net .298 adjusted TAv after 50 PA. |
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Post by wskeleton76 on May 2, 2014 17:58:46 GMT -5
Potentially 70 fastball, 65 curveball, and 55 changeup. Wow
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Post by ikonos on May 2, 2014 18:00:19 GMT -5
Mercedes had his original contract voided with the Giants due to identity/age issues, sat out a year, and signed with the Red Sox for twice as much a year later. He's an interest signing for many of the reasons Alex Speier describes here: ....... Just fascinating stuff that I had totally forgotten. Mercedes is in many ways emblematic of the way the front office has completely overhauled its international strategy in the past few years. So far, the Eddie Romero era looks like it has spectacular potential, between Mercedes, Margot, Rijo, Devers, Lin, and what looked like an intriguing DSL roster last year. PS: how hilarious is it that he tried to pretend he was 16 when he signed with the Giants? I think he was already something like 6'4" 220-ish at the time. That's some Miguel Tejada-level shenanigans. Not defending what he did but it almost always plays on the lines "the local agent tell his parents that he gotta tell them he is 16 or else they are not going to sign him" and he plays along to it rather than him deciding to do it on his own. |
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Post by moonstone2 on May 2, 2014 22:00:26 GMT -5
I know this won't be a popular view but I am always skeptical of players who experience a large and sudden unexplained spike in velocity especially if they are a little older when it happens. In many cases the velocity spike is temporary.
Given the player's background and velocity spike it could be that the player.........."whisper whisper whisper".
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Post by pedroelgrande on May 2, 2014 22:07:07 GMT -5
Is using roids. Don't be afraid.
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Post by moonstone2 on May 2, 2014 22:12:02 GMT -5
One other thing. I'd add to the chorus praising Romero. Credit Shipley for giving us three cogs on a World Series winner and the main piece in a trade to get a needed veteran starter. But Romero has done a great job and brought many more Latin American players into the system. Romero got Rijo, Mercedes, Devers, and Margot combined for less than Shippley paid for Jose Iglesias.
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Post by brianthetaoist on May 3, 2014 7:07:01 GMT -5
I know this won't be a popular view but I am always skeptical of players who experience a large and sudden unexplained spike in velocity especially if they are a little older when it happens. In many cases the velocity spike is temporary. Given the player's background and velocity spike it could be that the player.........."whisper whisper whisper". Not even going to argue the general point, but why are you posting this in a thread about Simon Mercedes? He's always had a big arm ... |
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Post by jmei on May 3, 2014 7:25:51 GMT -5
Yeah, Ian had a report from last year with Mercedes at 92-94 and topping out at 95, while BA's report this week has him at 92-97, which isn't all that much higher. Mercedes has always been known for his arm strength and velocity, so this isn't coming out of nowhere. The only perhaps incongruous report is the one from Alex Speier that had him topping out at 100 in one outing, but that's (a) in a one-inning stint where he could have aired it out and (b) not a true scouting report but basically secondhand gossip, where velocity numbers might have been exaggerated.
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Post by Oregon Norm on May 3, 2014 8:18:10 GMT -5
Hitting 96-97 with an injured finger that won't let you throw your breaking ball isn't exactly coming out of nowhere. He's still a little advanced for the league, but he's using all three of his pitches, and the walk rate is good. Maybe Portland before the year is out?
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Post by moonstone2 on May 3, 2014 16:35:11 GMT -5
I know this won't be a popular view but I am always skeptical of players who experience a large and sudden unexplained spike in velocity especially if they are a little older when it happens. In many cases the velocity spike is temporary. Given the player's background and velocity spike it could be that the player.........."whisper whisper whisper". Not even going to argue the general point, but why are you posting this in a thread about Simon Mercedes? He's always had a big arm ... I am just going off of this portion of the Speier article. That sounds like a pretty substantial increase in velocity to me what about you? |
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Post by ramireja on May 5, 2014 11:38:21 GMT -5
Simon Mercedes is starting to emerge as that Montas/Alcantara/Mendez guy that we love to trade.
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Post by jmei on May 5, 2014 11:47:59 GMT -5
Simon Mercedes is starting to emerge as that Montas/Alcantara/Mendez guy that we love to trade. He does fit the mold of the raw Dominican pitching prospect with a live arm but a long road ahead of him that the Red Sox like to use as a second or third piece in big trades. But he's also more advanced than any of those guys were, both in terms of level (Montas and Mendez were in Greenville, Alcantara was in Lowell when they were traded) and overall repertoire. Most of those guys had just one secondary pitch (usually one that was fringy but had plus potential), while Mercedes reportedly already has two above-average secondary pitches. That gives him a much higher chance of sticking as a starting pitcher, and there's a huge difference in value between a guy whose ceiling is a mid-rotation starter and a guy whose ceiling is a late-innings reliever. |
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Post by quintanariffic on May 5, 2014 12:57:11 GMT -5
Not even going to argue the general point, but why are you posting this in a thread about Simon Mercedes? He's always had a big arm ... I am just going off of this portion of the Speier article. That sounds like a pretty substantial increase in velocity to me what about you? Apparently your brain got tired from all that reading, so you stopped reading the article before the next paragraph It's hard. I know. Much easier to throw a PED inference out there, ya know, actually read ahead to see that his finger was injured all year. Yes, I know it only references his curve ball. Not much of stretch to think that the finger also sapped him of 2-4 mph on the heater. |
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Post by brianthetaoist on May 5, 2014 15:22:18 GMT -5
Not even going to argue the general point, but why are you posting this in a thread about Simon Mercedes? He's always had a big arm ... I am just going off of this portion of the Speier article. That sounds like a pretty substantial increase in velocity to me what about you? Almost nothing about that quote backs up your point, though. It says that he threw harder *before* than he does now (95-100), then says he threw a "low-90s" fastball last year, which is consistent with Ian's report of 92-94 and fairly consistent with BA's current 92-97. Plus, as just mentioned, there was an injury to a finger last year ... It's ok to be wrong, don't get me wrong. But to be wrong in the service of throwing out a very thinly-veiled PED reference is worth a retraction, even on a message board. |
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Post by moonstone2 on May 5, 2014 20:27:53 GMT -5
I am just going off of this portion of the Speier article. That sounds like a pretty substantial increase in velocity to me what about you? Apparently your brain got tired from all that reading, so you stopped reading the article before the next paragraph It's hard. I know. Much easier to throw a PED inference out there, ya know, actually read ahead to see that his finger was injured all year. Yes, I know it only references his curve ball. Not much of stretch to think that the finger also sapped him of 2-4 mph on the heater. Ummm that is a stretch. First off it's a 6-7 MPH increase not a 2-4 MPH. Secondly, why would a finger injury have any bearing on the force you can put behind the baseball? Spier is a thorough reporter. If the injury hindered his fastball he could have easilly written just that he didn't. |
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Post by moonstone2 on May 5, 2014 20:39:31 GMT -5
I am just going off of this portion of the Speier article. That sounds like a pretty substantial increase in velocity to me what about you? Almost nothing about that quote backs up your point, though. It says that he threw harder *before* than he does now (95-100), then says he threw a "low-90s" fastball last year, which is consistent with Ian's report of 92-94 and fairly consistent with BA's current 92-97. Plus, as just mentioned, there was an injury to a finger last year ... It's ok to be wrong, don't get me wrong. But to be wrong in the service of throwing out a very thinly-veiled PED reference is worth a retraction, even on a message board. No Brian it says that he throws substantially harder now than he did before. It is extremely unusual for a players to increase their velocity from 93, roughly average or slightly above to plus plus 97-100 at age 22. Given the player's history and background, it is perfectly logical to wonder why that happened. So no my good friend there will be no retraction because.......I'm not wrong. You are welcome to disagree, but you can't go around demanding retractions because I have an opinion you don't like. As to the point that he has substantially increased his velocity I am 100 percent correct. |
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Post by grandsalami on May 5, 2014 21:31:00 GMT -5
Almost nothing about that quote backs up your point, though. It says that he threw harder *before* than he does now (95-100), then says he threw a "low-90s" fastball last year, which is consistent with Ian's report of 92-94 and fairly consistent with BA's current 92-97. Plus, as just mentioned, there was an injury to a finger last year ... It's ok to be wrong, don't get me wrong. But to be wrong in the service of throwing out a very thinly-veiled PED reference is worth a retraction, even on a message board. No Brian it says that he throws substantially harder now than he did before. It is extremely unusual for a players to increase their velocity from 93, roughly average or slightly above to plus plus 97-100 at age 22. Given the player's history and background, it is perfectly logical to wonder why that happened. So no my good friend there will be no retraction because.......I'm not wrong. You are welcome to disagree, but you can't go around demanding retractions because I have an opinion you don't like. As to the point that he has substantially increased his velocity I am 100 percent correct. Until he busted for PED's it is not fair to accuse him of being on them. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk |
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Post by jmei on May 5, 2014 21:55:50 GMT -5
Using the Speier article to speculate about PED use when we have independent evidence that his velocity is not actually that much higher this year is pretty irresponsible. The Speier article makes two claims-- that Mercedes threw 95-96 in one 25-pitch appearance during Spring Training, and that members of the Red Sox organization said that he was at 95-100 in a previous Spring Training appearance. Speier is a fine reporter, but there are reasons to doubt both parts of that report. For one thing, he's not a scout, and he certainty didn't get that 95-96 reading off his personal radar gun. That means he either got it from the ballpark readings (which often run hot), or he got fed it from a Red Sox source. That brings me to the 95-100 report, which Speier admits was fed to him by members of the front office. That's reason enough to believe that that reading is exaggerated-- think obvious ulterior motives (pimping the exact kind of pitcher they like to use as a trade piece). Even if that velocity reading is accurate, though, there are plenty of alternate explanations. For one thing, at least the 95-96 outing (and probably the 95-100 one as well) came in a shortened stint where he could have aired it out, knowing that he'd only be in for 25 pitches. Moreover, if Mercedes knew he was throwing in front of members of the front office, he might have tried to max out his velocity in order to impress the higher-ups. Remember, Mercedes' only actual in-game scouting report this year (from BA) has him at 92-97. That's not all that different from the 92-95 that Ian saw last year. Comparing in-season scouting reports to Spring Training puff pieces is comparing apples to oranges. Remember Webster's breakout Spring Training last year? That 98 mph fastball magically disappeared as soon as the season started, because it was clearly just exaggerated puffery in the first place. |
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Post by joshv02 on May 5, 2014 21:59:56 GMT -5
All of that was said before and ignored. What's the point of this?
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Post by moonstone2 on May 5, 2014 23:24:23 GMT -5
It's really shocking that jmei disagrees with me and once again tries to argue that Mercedes velocity didn't increase when clearly it did. You are entitled to your opinion but not to make up your own facts. Please stop lying.
In any case there is reason to be skeptical of so-called "popup" velocity guys even if the reason for increased velocity is completely legitimate. Large increases in velocity can put a ton of pressure on your UCL and shoulder. A lot of pop up velocity players have ended up on the operating table. Joel Zumaya is the most famous example.
In short I believe that we as fans should evaluate players in the same way a general manager would. A general manager can't afford to wait for a positive test when making an evaluation. They have to go with the facts they have a assign probabilities to potential outcomes.
In this case I think it's fair to imply there is a 15-20 percent chance of PED use, and a much greater chance than that he's going UTK. There's nothing irresponsible about doing that.
Lying and trying to argue that pitching in the low 90s one year and the high 90s the next because you want to look smart on a message board is not only irresponsible. It's sad.
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Post by klostrophobic on May 6, 2014 0:09:56 GMT -5
Secondly, why would a finger injury have any bearing on the force you can put behind the baseball? This is a good point. |
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