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Battle for top 11 (protected) draft picks in 2015 draft
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Post by taftreign on Jun 10, 2014 13:28:31 GMT -5
Someone actually has to want injured, ineffective, out-of-options Doubront enough to give up the pick and the financial flexibility that comes with it. I don't necessarily get the love for Bryan Morris myself but the Marlins likely targeted him specifically. They didn't just take on some dude because they wanted to get rid of the pick. Good points on Doubront. I guess I was thinking more along the lines that he is controllable for 3 more seasons and his stuff may play better in the bullpen or could plug into the back of a rotation as a fill in. I didn't check his options and that is a factor to consider for sure. But even so no one would have traded for him being currently injured at the time. It was more a point that if a team like Miami would have preferred a starter type who doesn't project to be a rotation piece for Boston or looks to be squeezed out in favor of other prospects then I would have considered the idea in a reshuffling of the deck of sorts. Of course was not the only choice to offer in exchange as a few relievers could be made expendable. It would have had to be one with years of control however such as Tazawa or Britton.
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Post by ethanbein on Jun 10, 2014 14:24:22 GMT -5
It might be worth looking at the Fangraphs projected standings. The projected bottom ten, with projected wins, are: 1. Astros 72 2. Cubs 72 3. Phillies 72 4. Twins 73 5. Mets 73 6. Rays 74 7. D-Backs 75 8. White Sox 76 9. Rockies 77 10. Padres 77 ... 15. Red Sox 80 Obviously this early in the season a lot of the difference in the finals results will come down to over/underperformance, but if the Sox end up in this range it'll be a pretty bad result. No protected draft pick, but still a good enough one that signing a QO Free Angent will be tough to do, and still not really very close to the wild card race.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 10, 2014 17:36:46 GMT -5
If the Sox overspend on International amateurs this year, as has been widely reported, I know it creates a reduction in their intl pool money next year, but what about their draft allotment? Does anyone know definitively? Not sure whether you are asking... A) If the Red Sox overspend on international amateurs, will it affect their draft allotment? No, the two things are entirely unrelated. ---or--- B) If the Red Sox overspend on the draft the way they're reported to be doing in the international market, what does that do to their draft allotment next year? Well first of all, they're not, so don't worry about it. But if you're wondering, Mike wrote about it here: news.soxprospects.com/2014/06/welcome-to-signing-period.htmlIt was A so thanks. I didn't think they were related but the players screwed themselves and future MLB talent so much with this new CBA I wanted to be sure.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 10, 2014 17:39:28 GMT -5
the players screwed themselves and future MLB talent so much with this new CBA Well hey, that's a 50% success rate, right?
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 10, 2014 18:10:04 GMT -5
It might be worth looking at the Fangraphs projected standings. The projected bottom ten, with projected wins, are: 1. Astros 72 2. Cubs 72 3. Phillies 72 4. Twins 73 5. Mets 73 6. Rays 74 7. D-Backs 75 8. White Sox 76 9. Rockies 77 10. Padres 77 ... 15. Red Sox 80 Obviously this early in the season a lot of the difference in the finals results will come down to over/underperformance, but if the Sox end up in this range it'll be a pretty bad result. No protected draft pick, but still a good enough one that signing a QO Free Angent will be tough to do, and still not really very close to the wild card race. Thats what we're looking at if they don't sell. Unless they just mail it in at the end of the season.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 11, 2014 21:58:48 GMT -5
If the season ended right now, Tampa would have the top pick:
1. TBR ---- 2. CHC -3.0 3. ARI -3.5 4. PHI -4.0 5. SDO -4.0 6. HOU -5.0 7. NYM -5.0 8. BOS -5.0 9. COL -6.0 10. CIN -6.5 11. PIT -7.0
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, CHC, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, CIN, TBR, PIT, BOS)
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Post by taftreign on Jun 11, 2014 23:02:54 GMT -5
This may truly be a top ten pick year. I continue to wait for the team to pull out of it but the small gains seem to be temporary. Last year was a special year and that team pulled together in the face of tragedy to carry the city of Boston not only to the playoffs but to a World Series title on the back of emotion. You have to wonder that after an extremely emotion driven season if the team hasn't fallen victim to the curse of playing flat. It seems to occur frequently across sports that long emotional winning stretches or even one very emotional game is often followed by flat play. I just don't see the spark that will ignite this team coming.
Getting everyone healthy would surely allow the team to push out of the bottom 10 but I struggle to feel good when considering playoff chances. I'm getting closer to accepting the season as a big disappointment and pushing for letting the kids (JBJ, Workman, De La Rosa, Vazquez, etc .. ) get a heavy workload of big league experience along with trading off expendable pieces for whatever gains possible. 17 games until the half way point and July is coming quickly. 9 games out in the division. 5.5 games out of the 2nd wild card having to surpass 9 other teams in front of them (including Houston by % points). If that number is around 12 out divisional and 8 out in the wild card come July 1 I'll choose the side of selling and youth. Sometimes it's not your year and for some it's even the year after winning the whole dang thing.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 14, 2014 0:14:40 GMT -5
If the season ended right now:
1. TBR ---- 2. ARI -2.0 3. CHC -2.5 4. SDO -2.5 (five game losing streak) 5. PHI -3.5 6. HOU -4.5 7. NYM -4.5 8. BOS -5.5 9. COL -6.5 10. CWS -7.0 11. CIN -7.0 12. CLE -7.0 (four game losing streak)
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, CWS, CHC, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, CIN, TBR, CLE, BOS)
Four games separate the #10 pick from the #26 pick.
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 619
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Post by alnipper on Jun 15, 2014 10:26:34 GMT -5
Sox move into 7th by percentage points over Houston!
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 15, 2014 18:06:48 GMT -5
If the season ended right now:
1. TBR ---- 2. ARI -2.0 3. CHC -2.5 4. SDO -2.5 5. PHI -3.5 6. HOU -4.5 7. NYM -4.5 8. BOS -4.5 9. CWS -6.0 (four game losing streak) 10. MIN -6.5 11. CIN -7.0
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, CWS, CHC, MIN, PHI, NYM, SDO, ARI, CIN, TBR, BOS)
4.5 games separate the #11 pick from the #25 pick.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 17, 2014 22:16:24 GMT -5
If the season ended right now:
1. TBR ---- 2. ARI -1.0 3. SDO -1.5 4. CHC -2.5 5. NYM -3.5 6. HOU -4.0 7. PHI -4.5 8. MIN -5.5 (four game losing streak) 9. BOS -5.5 10. CWS -6.5 11. COL -6.5 12. PIT -7.0
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, CWS, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, TBR, PIT, BOS)
4.5 games separate the #10 pick from the #25 pick.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 20, 2014 6:29:01 GMT -5
If the season ended right now:
1. TBR ---- 2. ARI -1.0 3. SDO -2.5 4. HOU -3.0 (four game losing streak) 5. CHC -3.0 6. NYM -4.5 7. MIN -5.5 8. PHI -5.5 (four game winning streak) 9. BOS -5.5 10. COL -6.0 11. CWS -6.5
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, CWS, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, TBR, BOS)
4 games separate the #12 pick from the #26 pick.
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 619
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Post by alnipper on Jun 20, 2014 12:04:05 GMT -5
Thank you for the updates Fox. The Sox need to decide if they want to contend or make make the bottom 10 in the next month. I am a win it all or lose it all fan. As of now we are 5 games out of the wild card as well.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Jun 20, 2014 12:15:54 GMT -5
Thank you for the updates Fox. The Sox need to decide if they want to contend or make make the bottom 10 in the next month. I am a win it all or lose it all fan. As of now we are 5 games out of the wild card as well. Agreed! Being a .500 team is the worse place to be at this moment unless you on the rise and need just one or two players to contend. We are ALL in or NOT. This long road trip out west and in NY will tell us quite a bit on July 1st. Ben won't wait a lot over that date if guys like Vic and Middlebrooks keep getting hurt, Ortiz and Pedroia don't start being a tare, and Buch and Doubront don't become consistent every 5th day. I love Victorino but will he even help this year at all?
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 21, 2014 19:04:55 GMT -5
If the season ended right now:
1. TBR ---- 2. ARI -1.0 3. SDO -2.5 4. HOU -3.0 5. CHC -3.0 6. NYM -4.5 7. BOS -4.5 8. COL -5.0 (five game losing streak) 9. CWS -5.5 10. PHI -5.5 11. TEX -6.0 (four game losing streak) 12. MIN -6.5 13. PIT -7.0
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, CWS, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, TBR, TEX, PIT, BOS)
4.5 games separate the #13 pick from the #26 pick.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 21, 2014 20:49:06 GMT -5
Will he make any difference even with his legs, his best attribute? They miss him terribly bad, but if his legs are bad, it's like not having him at all and he's playing.
On your "handle" with regards to watching the GCL... Detroit has most of their top picks here at Lakeland.. looking forward to seeing Derik Hill next week.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 21, 2014 22:10:43 GMT -5
I think people keep forgetting just how close we are to one of the worst records in the game... Its going to be an interesting month or two coming up.
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Post by sammo420 on Jun 21, 2014 22:29:00 GMT -5
I think people keep forgetting just how close we are to one of the worst records in the game... Its going to be an interesting month or two coming up. It's because we aren't that far off from the wildcard either. Don't get me wrong, I don't think we stand a chance realistically but that's why.
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 22, 2014 8:37:26 GMT -5
Have to admit that Trey Ball has taken a lot of the joy away from this Tankapaloosa
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 22, 2014 12:53:33 GMT -5
I think people keep forgetting just how close we are to one of the worst records in the game... Its going to be an interesting month or two coming up. It's because we aren't that far off from the wildcard either. Don't get me wrong, I don't think we stand a chance realistically but that's why. One of the worst parts about an extra wildcard spot. Every horrible team is "still in it".
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 619
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Post by alnipper on Jun 23, 2014 11:57:18 GMT -5
The Sox will have to decide if they want some more seats filled the last two months, or trade away for some future prospects.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 23, 2014 22:19:57 GMT -5
If the season ended right now:
1. TBR ---- 2. ARI -0.5 3. CHC -2.0 4. SDO -2.0 5. HOU -2.5 6. COL -4.0 (seven game losing streak) 7. CWS -4.5 (five game losing streak) 8. PHI -4.5 9. BOS -4.5 10. NYM -5.0 11. TEX -5.5 (five game losing streak) 12. MIN -7.0 (four game winning streak) 13. CLE -7.0
(tiebreaker order of the above teams is HOU, CWS, CHC, MIN, PHI, COL, NYM, SDO, ARI, TBR, TEX, CLE, BOS)
5 games separate the #12 pick from the #27 pick.
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Post by stevedillard on Jun 24, 2014 6:56:29 GMT -5
Interesting that the Sox front office fingerprints are all over 2, 3, 4 and 9
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Post by jmei on Jun 24, 2014 11:47:05 GMT -5
Boston's playoff odds are down to 14.7% per Fangraphs (even though they have the highest projecting winning percentage of any of the AL East teams going forward at .530) and 10.5% per Baseball Prospectus (with the second-highest projecting winning percentage in the division at .512).
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 24, 2014 12:31:36 GMT -5
14.7% is also in the fangraphs projection mode. So it is looking at Zips + Steamers projections prior to the start of the season (meaning it is looking at the 2013 WS team that played over their heads) It is being too kind for us, and assuming that the first half of 2014 was a slump and not as indicative of the remaining season as the projections should be. Season to date mode, which looks at 2014 stats has us at a 8.7% chance. I think the answer is somewhere in between, as I don't think the 2014 team is playing as good as they should be.
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