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How Strong is the System?
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Post by oilcansman on May 27, 2014 9:23:00 GMT -5
He's not popular, but he's quite relevant. Dan Shaughnessy wondered in his column today about the sox farm system. Most of you won't like this, but he has an interesting point.
The top prospects are at AA or above. The major league team stinks and one reason is there's no depth. It's a perfect chance for new blood, yet there is none. Last year Allen Webster busted in his call up. Middlebrooks has been terrible. JBJ's hitting is as bad as I've seen from a Sox regular outfielder in my lifetime (I was born in the '60s). His defense is excellent but offense is necessary. Bogaerts is going to be an excellent third baseman but even he looks like a position switch. Heck, Stephen Drew had to be re-signed. There's plenty of opportunity, but not much help available from the farm.
Back in the 90s we heard over and over about the Blue Jays farm system. Baseball America and Peter Gammons were in prickly heat about it. Jose Pet, Sil Campusano anyone? It turned out to be a myth. Of course, the 80s blue jays system was historically terrific.
At some point, we need to leave the vacuum and honestly ask whether the Sox system is all hype. I'm not scouting box scores. I'm looking at the players on the field.
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Post by James Dunne on May 27, 2014 9:32:36 GMT -5
Are you referring to the 1990's Blue Jays systems that produced Carlos Delgado, Shawn Green, Alex Gonzalez, Pat Hentgen, Roy Halladay, Chris Carpenter, Shannon Stewart, and Denis Boucher? Yeah I guess they had some busts too, but yeah... that's pretty much the model.
Xander Bogaerts is a 21 year old with a .377 OBP. Even with his below average defense he's been one of the better shortstops in the league. And you won't get much argument on this forum if you want to replace Peavy, Doubront and Buchholz with Workman, Webster and De La Rosa. Part of the problem here is that all offseason, people scream "play the youngsters!" then by May they are sick of the growing pains. Maybe Bradley will hit in the majors, maybe he won't. But he's a plus defensive center fielder and the type of talent that it's worth finding out if he can hit.
Shaughnessy is paid to say the sky is falling. The Boston Globe still thinks people are going to shell out money to hate-read a column, like this is 1978. I'm going to trust Jim Callis and John Sickels and Keith Law over Shaughnessy when it comes to prospect evaluation.
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Post by klostrophobic on May 27, 2014 9:33:06 GMT -5
The system is strongest in areas where the major league club has no positional flexibility. Great, they have a glut of AAA starters, where are you going to put them all? Release Peavy, Buchholz and Doubront? That's not an indictment on the strength of the system.
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Post by oilcansman on May 27, 2014 9:40:03 GMT -5
Are you referring to the 1990's Blue Jays systems that produced Carlos Delgado, Shawn Green, Alex Gonzalez, Pat Hentgen, Roy Halladay, Chris Carpenter, Shannon Stewart, and Denis Boucher? Yeah I guess they had some busts too, but yeah... that's pretty much the model. Xander Bogaerts is a 21 year old with a .377 OBP. Even with his below average defense he's been one of the better shortstops in the league. And you won't get much argument on this forum if you want to replace Peavy, Doubront and Buchholz with Workman, Webster and De La Rosa. Part of the problem here is that all offseason, people scream "play the youngsters!" then by May they are sick of the growing pains. Maybe Bradley will hit in the majors, maybe he won't. But he's a plus defensive center fielder and the type of talent that it's worth finding out if he can hit. Shaughnessy is paid to say the sky is falling. The Boston Globe still thinks people are going to shell out money to hate-read a column, like this is 1978. I'm going to trust Jim Callis and John Sickels and Keith Law over Shaughnessy when it comes to prospect evaluation. It's not possible to be one of the better shortstops in baseball with below average defense. What has Workman, Webster and De La Rosa done that suggest they can be in the Sox rotation? Is is because the people on this sight think so? At what point is is ok to wonder if JBJ is a major league hitter? Why do people on this site, which I basically love, fail to follow through and analyze how the prospects play once they hit the majors? Don't you think it's relevant?
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Post by oilcansman on May 27, 2014 9:41:07 GMT -5
The system is strongest in areas where the major league club has no positional flexibility. Great, they have a glut of AAA starters, where are you going to put them all? Release Peavy, Buchholz and Doubront? That's not an indictment on the strength of the system. My sense is there is no glut of AAA starters. There's a glut of hype.
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Post by jmei on May 27, 2014 9:49:41 GMT -5
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Post by klostrophobic on May 27, 2014 9:52:20 GMT -5
Sure, everything is hype until it happens. What is your point? There's no room for all of Webster, De La Rosa, Barnes, Ranaudo on the MLB club at the moment. Last year they graduated Xander who is excellent and Workman who is pretty decent. How many guys can you graduate every year?
If you look at the 80s Blue Jays and take any three month stretch you could probably say they're all hype too. Look at the red sox last ten years in comparison to the 80s BJs.
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Post by oilcansman on May 27, 2014 9:54:14 GMT -5
Before he got old, Jeter was a very good defensive shortstop - at times excellent. New York hyped him a little too much but he was good. He aged terribly defensively. Tejada not as good a Jeter, but I recall before he got old he was fine. Ramirez has always been a third baseman playing shortstop.
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Post by klostrophobic on May 27, 2014 9:58:07 GMT -5
Jeter was terrible at short until like 7 years ago where he was OK for a few seasons and now he's terrible again. I bet he's the worst SS of all time if you look at career defensive contributions.
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Post by jchang on May 27, 2014 9:58:29 GMT -5
I am thinking that are system is well stocked with prospects who could or will be average MLB players/ starting pitchers and impactful bench + RP. Excluding Bogaerts, perhaps a few of the grade 6 prospects will be above average. For a low budget team, this would be great. But (if) we are a contending team that is overall strong, we would prefer to get one or two all-star prospects + depth.
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Post by oilcansman on May 27, 2014 10:00:32 GMT -5
Sure, everything is hype until it happens. What is your point? There's no room for all of Webster, De La Rosa, Barnes, Ranaudo on the MLB club at the moment. Last year they graduated Xander who is excellent and Workman who is pretty decent. How many guys can you graduate every year? My point is that there's nothing about them that merits much hype. Webster call up last year was a joke. De La Rosa looks like a bullpen arm, which is fine but not worthy of great hype. Barnes coming off a lousy year at Portland, off to a ho hum start at Pawtucket. He hasn't posted impressive stats since Greenville. And, yes, at some point, stats do matter. Ranaudo is the only one who looks interesting - if he can get his walks under control. Why do people here get angry when these opinions are posted? That's the real mystery to me.
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Post by jmei on May 27, 2014 10:04:21 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on May 27, 2014 10:13:01 GMT -5
This actually seems like Dan Shaughnessy pimping his own article. (probably not because even he can't believe what he writes)
It's not healthy to actually be this negative about everything. You need a little Kevin Millar in your life.
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Post by sarasoxer on May 27, 2014 10:16:27 GMT -5
Sure, everything is hype until it happens. What is your point? There's no room for all of Webster, De La Rosa, Barnes, Ranaudo on the MLB club at the moment. Last year they graduated Xander who is excellent and Workman who is pretty decent. How many guys can you graduate every year? My point is that there's nothing about them that merits much hype. Webster call up last year was a joke. De La Rosa looks like a bullpen arm, which is fine but not worthy of great hype. Barnes coming off a lousy year at Portland, off to a ho hum start at Pawtucket. He hasn't posted impressive stats since Greenville. And, yes, at some point, stats do matter. Ranaudo is the only one who looks interesting - if he can get his walks under control. Why do people here get angry when these opinions are posted? That's the real mystery to me. I, for one, agree with you oilcan and had mentioned same a few days ago. If the guys that had come up had done well (JBJ, WMB, Webster, RDR) we would likely have quite a different view. As it is, one calls into question how good the system really is. And, as noted, it drops off rather precipitously below AA (as currently envisioned). All the top touted Sox pitchers seemingly have control issues...Johnson might end up being as impactful as any. When Papi goes...wow, our current dearth of power will morph into a vacuum. Things can change in an instant of course and we will have bucks next year, but it appears that unless we are willing to go near toe to toe with the Yankees et al on the spending front, we may be lean for a while.
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Post by sbones13 on May 27, 2014 10:19:54 GMT -5
Who's angry? You just made a pretty silly point and people are responding to it. Isn't that what you wanted to happen?
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on May 27, 2014 10:30:30 GMT -5
My point is that there's nothing about them that merits much hype. Webster call up last year was a joke. De La Rosa looks like a bullpen arm, which is fine but not worthy of great hype. Barnes coming off a lousy year at Portland, off to a ho hum start at Pawtucket. He hasn't posted impressive stats since Greenville. And, yes, at some point, stats do matter. Ranaudo is the only one who looks interesting - if he can get his walks under control. Why do people here get angry when these opinions are posted? That's the real mystery to me. I, for one, agree with you oilcan and had mentioned same a few days ago. If the guys that had come up had done well (JBJ, WMB, Webster, RDR) we would likely have quite a different view. As it is, one calls into question how good the system really is. And, as noted, it drops off rather precipitously below AA (as currently envisioned). All the top touted Sox pitchers seemingly have control issues...Johnson might end up being as impactful as any. When Papi goes...wow, our current dearth of power will morph into a vacuum. Things can change in an instant of course and we will have bucks next year, but it appears that unless we are willing to go near toe to toe with the Yankees et al on the spending front, we may be lean for a while. Sarasoxer is right. It is time to see some of these guys come up and show us they are legit. As easy as it was last year to be a Sox fan, we are sure taking our lumps this season. But it is still early. For me the halfway point (game 81) is critical for our direction this season. I'm as frustrated and disappointed as anyone on this site. Now I'm a big Bradley fan....but his offensive struggles have really sent me reeling. How can anyone with his "contact" skills he displayed in the minors.....be this bad? Placing Buchholz on the disabled list to me is something that has to be done, and I'm all for keeping Doubront there also. Not sure Felix will ever be anything special.
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Post by oilcansman on May 27, 2014 10:30:43 GMT -5
Who's angry? You just made a pretty silly point and people are responding to it. Isn't that what you wanted to happen? Actually, no. Not sure why claiming the farm system may not in fact be that strong is so upsetting to people. The strange thing is that when players move up to majors and don't perform, people here act like they don't exist anymore. Major league performance is the jury verdict of any farm system. The few verdicts we have over the past years are troubling, with the shining exception of Bogaerts.
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Post by okin15 on May 27, 2014 10:31:27 GMT -5
Sure, everything is hype until it happens. What is your point? There's no room for all of Webster, De La Rosa, Barnes, Ranaudo on the MLB club at the moment. Last year they graduated Xander who is excellent and Workman who is pretty decent. How many guys can you graduate every year? My point is that there's nothing about them that merits much hype. Webster call up last year was a joke. De La Rosa looks like a bullpen arm, which is fine but not worthy of great hype. Barnes coming off a lousy year at Portland, off to a ho hum start at Pawtucket. He hasn't posted impressive stats since Greenville. And, yes, at some point, stats do matter. Ranaudo is the only one who looks interesting - if he can get his walks under control. Why do people here get angry when these opinions are posted? That's the real mystery to me. You don't hype a prospect based on a couple of starts in MLB. You hype him on his fastball, his AAA stats, etc. You're not wrong to be worried that some of these guys will fail. Many will. Maybe half of the best prospects won't even play passable major league ball. But some will succeed, and more Sox guys have a chance of doing that than most teams guys. That's what the hype is about.
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Post by jimed14 on May 27, 2014 10:32:56 GMT -5
Portland is 34-16 and it's not because they have a bunch of career minor leaguers.
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Post by oilcansman on May 27, 2014 10:38:40 GMT -5
This actually seems like Dan Shaughnessy pimping his own article. (probably not because even he can't believe what he writes) It's not healthy to actually be this negative about everything. You need a little Kevin Millar in your life. No, I'm not shank, but I do like him. Actually, I'm a degenerate Red Sox fan. I've been reading Gammons and Baseball America since the 80s. I also have critical reasoning skills and have noticed on my own over the years that ordinarily prospects who turn into good major league players show their ability within a month of promotion. I've never come across a player like JBJ. EVERYTHING about the guy through AAA cried out, "solid ten year centerfielder". Yet, he was terrible last year in his short stint and this year after being given the position with no real backup he's just awful at the plate. If he fails, he will have fooled everyone.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on May 27, 2014 10:40:50 GMT -5
Who's angry? You just made a pretty silly point and people are responding to it. Isn't that what you wanted to happen? Actually, no. Not sure why claiming the farm system may not in fact be that strong is so upsetting to people. The strange thing is that when players move up to majors and don't perform, people here act like they don't exist anymore. Major league performance is the jury verdict of any farm system. The few verdicts we have over the past years are troubling, with the shining exception of Bogaerts. Probably true, too bad Pedroia, Youklis, Papelbon, Ellsbury, Lester, et al failed so bad. Maybe we could have won a World Series or three.
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Post by oilcansman on May 27, 2014 10:43:43 GMT -5
Portland is 34-16 and it's not because they have a bunch of career minor leaguers. And I look forward to seeing Johnson, Betts, Marrero, Swihart and maybe even Ramos. But, my goodness, what about the young guys in Boston and Pawtucket? We've been hearing about them for 3-4 years, and things are looking shaky. I guess my question is how does the hype get started and why? It seems to build on itself, often without justification. And why aren't we more critical and assessing these players? BTW, critical means fair and thoughtful, not cruel.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on May 27, 2014 10:46:11 GMT -5
Despite the protestations of the many, this is a great question and one that should be in the back of everyone's mind. A couple of years ago, the Royals had the best farm system, some say in years, and it really hasn't progressed at the Majors.
It is unfair to put a timeline on any of these guys to reach their true talent (see Daniel Nava), but if things don't start progressing for some of these guys it makes all the sense in the world to believe they will have a hard time ending up being average major league regulars. If that ends up being the case then...yes...the system is not very strong.
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Post by jchang on May 27, 2014 10:48:57 GMT -5
Wow, its hard to think of Jeter in such terms. Using baseball reference, for primary SS active in 2013 (I downloaded historical WAR, but standard batting only for 2013 which has position info), Jeter has the second lowest avg WAR_def at - 0.483. Eduardo Nunez at -0.87. The 3 SS just above Jeter in WAR_def are Hanley, Brendan Harris, and Dee Gordon at -.347, -.439, -.447 respectively. For all positions, players active in 2013, with 8 or more years there are 40 with lower avg WAR_def, the bottom are
name_common def woff WAR Miguel Cabrera -1.106 5.675 4.965 Michael Cuddyer -1.136 1.895 1.134 Ryan Howard -1.175 2.308 1.884 Prince Fielder -1.955 3.633 2.615 Adam Dunn -1.981 2.377 1.178 Papi has WAR_def -1.04
so I suppose WAR_def might be unfair to 1B and DH?
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Post by oilcansman on May 27, 2014 10:50:38 GMT -5
Actually, no. Not sure why claiming the farm system may not in fact be that strong is so upsetting to people. The strange thing is that when players move up to majors and don't perform, people here act like they don't exist anymore. Major league performance is the jury verdict of any farm system. The few verdicts we have over the past years are troubling, with the shining exception of Bogaerts. Probably true, too bad Pedroia, Youklis, Papelbon, Ellsbury, Lester, et al failed so bad. Maybe we could have won a World Series or three. phil: I appreciate the fact you're a fan. And maybe this is just a fan site. I hope not. I think you need to consider that the five guys your reference were not drafted by the current GM and scouting director. In addition, Ellsbury, Lester, Papelbon and Youkilis got off to good starts with the Sox. Pedroia is an exception, as he has been his entire life.
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