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How Strong is the System?
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Post by mjammz on Jun 25, 2014 19:16:03 GMT -5
2012 was also the first year of the new CBA and draft. I think teams (Red Sox included) were unsure of what to expect and their strategies reflected that. As we've seen the last few years things have kind of recalibrated with the players asking prices becoming more reasonable and teams understanding the best strategies to add the most talent to their systems.
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Post by oilcansman on Jun 26, 2014 9:12:00 GMT -5
2010,2011, 2012 were rock solid drafts. 2013 looks like a disaster. Speaking of baseline, is 2012 rock solid? Is it fair to take into account that they Sox have pursued a strategy of getting lots of picks, so have more chances that other team? I recognize 2012 has Marrero, and Johnson making some signs of life, but given the three first rounders, is it unfair to be disappointed at one potential solid starter and a potential fifth starter/long man? More importatnly, the other high picks of Light, Callahan, Maddox and Buttrey never really showed anything; they did not just reach a level and not progress, they really have never shown anything. 1 (24) Deven Marrero SS Arizona State 1 (31)* Brian Johnson LHP Florida 1s (37)* Pat Light RHP Monmouth 2 (87) Jamie Callahan RHP Dillon HS (SC) 3 (118) Austin Maddox RHP Florida 4 Ty Buttrey RHP Providence HS (NC) 5 Mike Augliera RHP Binghamton 6 Justin Haley RHP Fresno State 7 Kyle Kraus RHP Portland 8 Nathan Minnich 1B Shepherd College 9 Mike Miller SS Cal Poly 10 JT Watkins C Army One specific question on HS arms, from a batch of 6 high HS arms, Ball, Buttrey, Callahan, Owens, Kukuk, Younginger, the vast majority have struggled immediately, not just as they moved up. Obviously Owens is the exception. I know in the longer term a 1/6 rate is very good. But can we read something into the immediate struggless of these kids even at the GCL level? The overall haul of '12 was thin but a potential 6-7 year starter at ss with gold glove potential and a possible third starter (although he may be a 4) makes up for it.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jun 28, 2014 9:23:44 GMT -5
I agree the play of Johnson has rescued that draft. I guess Buttrey is very young. It goes to show you how deep they are that this guy Ball and Kukuk (my binky) are struggling and they are still moving along. Especially with what they have coming from the international pool.
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Post by ramireja on Jun 28, 2014 10:18:23 GMT -5
Also, Justin Haley has a fair chance of reaching the majors in some capacity. Too early to tell on Callahan IMO, but Buttrey certainly not looking good...
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Post by telson13 on Jun 28, 2014 12:33:08 GMT -5
Sure, everything is hype until it happens. What is your point? There's no room for all of Webster, De La Rosa, Barnes, Ranaudo on the MLB club at the moment. Last year they graduated Xander who is excellent and Workman who is pretty decent. How many guys can you graduate every year? My point is that there's nothing about them that merits much hype. Webster call up last year was a joke. De La Rosa looks like a bullpen arm, which is fine but not worthy of great hype. Barnes coming off a lousy year at Portland, off to a ho hum start at Pawtucket. He hasn't posted impressive stats since Greenville. And, yes, at some point, stats do matter. Ranaudo is the only one who looks interesting - if he can get his walks under control. Why do people here get angry when these opinions are posted? That's the real mystery to me. Webster was called up with a third of a season of AAA experience as a HS SS converted at age 18 to the mound. His control and command were questionable then, and his performance reflected this (after a great start against KC). To bury a prospect after a 30-inning stint in the majors is not to understand prospects, particularly young pitchers. Webster finished last year strong, and has a sub-3 ERA this year, with improving control and command, particularly in the past sox weeks. Ranaudo has an ERA just over 2.5 and a WHIP of 1.2 in hi first full AAA season. De La Rosa, if you weren't paying attention, had TJ surgery and, as reasonably expected, struggled with his command last year. All he's done in the majors this year is pitch four outstanding games (including his last one, against the best team in baseball) to go with two so-so ones, to the tune of a 2.5 ERA and a K per IP, a WHIP around 1, and less than 3 BB/9IP. Workman has put up slightly less impressive numbers but still has a low-3s ERA and has shown good command of four pitches. Bogaerts has slumped recently, but is still hitting fairly well and doing an excellent job of getting on base. JBJ has had an awful time making contact, but he is taking walks and playing excellent defense. Mookie Betts is getting called up because he steals bases (with an over 80% success rate) and has done nothing but hit at every level, including his ludicrous performance this year after a "surprise" 2013 (although, considering his $750k signing bonus, maybe not as much of a surprise to the Sox). Are you not watching games? Most prospects don't immediately come up and have success, *especially* pitchers. Clemens, Randy Johnson, Greg Maddux, Roy Halladay (especially!), Cliff Lee, Tom Glavine...there are plenty more examples, but all of those guys struggled to some degree at the starts of their careers. If you're listening to Dan Shaughnessy, you're buying into irrationally negative hype. No, not all of those guys will pan out, but it takes 3-4 YEARS to find that out, not 3-4 months.
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 618
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Post by alnipper on Jul 16, 2014 11:07:05 GMT -5
I was looking over our system and we have a great system going. Our first draft pick isn't even our top ten, but 14th. This is after we graduated Workman, Bradley, and Xander. We had our best draft in 3 years, and up and down our top 60 we have sleepers. We got Simon Mercedes, Longhi, Asuaje, and Aro among others outside our top 20, who could jump up our rankings quickly. We just had some exciting international signings outside our top 60. How many organizations can say that. We have several potential all-stars in our top 20. We are in great shape heading forward.
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Post by telson13 on Jul 16, 2014 12:42:13 GMT -5
In Baseball America's mid-season top 50, the Red Sox had two players (Swihart, #14, and Owens, #15). They also graduated Betts, who the BA guys said would have placed 12th had he not been promoted. So, that's three of the top 15 prospects in baseball in the most updated analysis. Owens is considered one of the top 2 or 3 LHPs (and a #2 starter ceiling guy) in the minors, and Swihart the top C prospect. Those analyses are relatively universal (ie, Keith Law, MLB.com, etc. are in relative agreement there). Since there are 30 MLB teams, if one were to rank players by giving points in reverse order (i.e., 50 for the #1, 49 for #2, etc.), I'm pretty sure the Sox would place in the top 3 in baseball based on that list. If one simply looks at probability, each team on average should have 1.67 players in the top 50...so the Sox are almost twice as well off as expected, with their players all in the 70th percentile or above as far as ranking (15 of 50) This also DOESN'T take into account JBJ, Bogaerts, Holt, Workman, or RDLR, who have all demonstrated that they are at least serviceable major leaguers (and in the case of Holt and RDLR, better-than-average to this point). Bogaerts was the #2 prospect in all of baseball before this season...I tend to trust talent evaluators that he *will* figure it out. He's only 21, so he's got at least 4 years before he's really a "bust" (and in reality, probably shouldn't be given that label until he's post-prospect status, eg 27 or so). JBJ is a defensive genius, and he's starting to hit. My guess is he becomes a serviceable or even solid hitter (.270/.340/.400 or better) within the next year or two, and he's already the best CF in the AL. Then, consider that they have Ranaudo having a very good year in AAA; Coyle is having a monster year in AA (at age 22, in his first go-around); Johnson is demonstrating solid #4 starter potential at 23 in AA; Manuel Margot is being called one of the most exciting players in all of the minors, and on pace for 30 doubles, 15 HR, and 50+ steals at age 19 in low A (about two years below league average age); Rafael Devers is absolutely **destroying** the ball in the GCL at only 17 (and looks like he's ready to go to Lowell); They got Chavis, Kopech, and Travis in the top 70 picks in the draft and none rank in their top ten prospects; Wendell Rijo has been almost as good as Margot in A-ball, and he's **very** young for the level at only 18; Trey Ball, Ty Buttrey, Jaime Callahan, Sergio Gomez, and most of the other pitchers other than Barnes who have struggled are all very young and/or inexperienced. I'm sorry, but anyone who thinks this system is not one of the most outstanding and deep ones in all of baseball (and probably Sox history) just isn't paying attention, or is wedded to the old Sox fan habit of crying Chicken Little (thanks, Dan Shaughnessy).
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jimoh
Veteran
Posts: 3,962
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Post by jimoh on Jul 16, 2014 13:07:09 GMT -5
Telson13, any chance you could separate your long comments into paragraphs for easier reading?
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Post by godot on Jul 16, 2014 16:53:37 GMT -5
I have been one not very whelmed by the Sox's recent farm activities and production, but it seems that they have more high ceiling kids (and position players) at the lower levels now, perhaps from international signings, and the recent draft seemed to focus on kids with athletic and baseball skills, more so that usual. However,I do not follow the system at these levels than many people on the board. Any views on this. Thanls
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Post by soxcentral on Jul 16, 2014 20:23:15 GMT -5
I have been one not very whelmed by the Sox's recent farm activities and production... Is this sarcasm? JBJ Bogaerts Betts Vazquez Holt De La Rosa Workman Do you mean just the remaining players in AAA/AA?
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Post by godot on Jul 16, 2014 20:29:13 GMT -5
Egad, don't want to get argumentative , gee, just want to know the quality at the lower levels and whether there have been a drafting change. Egad.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 16, 2014 20:59:07 GMT -5
telson13, real solid post though. Don't get discouraged. Your analysis was right on.
Some tips here are use paragraphs and don't repeat posts quickly ( combine thoughts in one post if you can ). They don't like 3 posts in a row, over a 10 minute span generally unless maybe it's a game thread. They don't like having to have so many posts ideally, if they can be condensed better with some planning. And keep things on topic generally.
My impression here is that this isn't a free flowing forum where you just post what you are thinking when you are thinking it. They look at it as a book, with chapters, which is worth archiving and is a very useful reference. In other words, yes, some people are extremely picky.
But there is a ton of value also in this approach as well. Welcome dude!
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Post by stevedillard on Jul 16, 2014 21:19:24 GMT -5
I have been one not very whelmed by the Sox's recent farm activities and production... Is this sarcasm? JBJ Bogaerts Betts Vazquez Holt De La Rosa Workman Do you mean just the remaining players in AAA/AA? Seems like the basic disconnect on the thread remains: the sox have higher rated "potential" kids than a lot of other teams. The other side of this is that of your list of success, you have a bunch of .230 hitters, a backup catcher a super utility guy and a couple of fifth starters. Their lack of impact might support the basic question of how strong they have made the team. You have to go back to Pedroia in 2007 to find a super productive guy. And congrats on the goal, Mario.
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Post by soxcentral on Jul 16, 2014 21:34:24 GMT -5
Judging rookies, two of which are only 21, based on their career numbers and downside projections proves that our system is overrated. Got it.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 16, 2014 21:54:31 GMT -5
Judging rookies, two of which are only 21, based on their career numbers and downside projections proves that our system is overrated. Got it. That "backup" catcher would also beg to differ with the assessment. Given the Sox just threw their backstop bridge-to-next-year under the bus, and that the new incumbent is not hitting .230, I'd say the jury is still out on his future, especially after all of three games.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 17, 2014 10:47:25 GMT -5
I really don't understand why people would be drawn to following prospects at all if they are always so negative about the future. I view prospects as hope for the future. No matter how grounded one may be in evaluating them and recognizing likely outcomes, isn't the hope that some number of them outperform and become amazing players for our favorite team what we're looking for? Some here are definitely not hopeful about anything. If you're not happy with our farm system at this point in time, you're never going to be happy ever.
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alnipper
Veteran
Living the dream
Posts: 618
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Post by alnipper on Jul 17, 2014 11:20:27 GMT -5
In five years we'll know for sure how strong our system is. It takes that long to know for sure. I've been following the Sox systems since the mid 80's. Only I know how good my judgements been. This is the best I have seen our farm system has been in years. I just hope we avoid major injuries and don't rush our prospects. I am worried about Barnes's health for example.
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Post by rjp313jr on Jul 17, 2014 11:21:52 GMT -5
Tempering expectations doesn't necessarily mean being negative.
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Post by joshv02 on Jul 17, 2014 11:28:20 GMT -5
Egad, don't want to get argumentative , gee, just want to know the quality at the lower levels and whether there have been a drafting change. Egad. A good place to look is soxprospects.com . Its a good website whereby you can learn which prospects lower than AA are ranked in the top, and various scouting reports of those prospects. Check it out. (The forums, however, can turn into a zoo of snark and people who fail to do any research whatsoever prior to posting.)
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 17, 2014 11:30:11 GMT -5
Tempering expectations doesn't necessarily mean being negative. If you define tempering as overstating negatives and ignoring positives, ok. I don't see the point in following prospects if you're always like that.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 22, 2014 11:33:52 GMT -5
Perhaps not as strong as we think according to ESPN's polarizing draft/prospect maven Keith Law who just released a mid-season top 5 systems: klaw.me/1ryt1m8
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Post by thebogeyman on Jul 22, 2014 13:32:22 GMT -5
Perhaps not as strong as we think according to ESPN's polarizing draft/prospect maven Keith Law who just released a mid-season top 5 systems: klaw.me/1ryt1m8Not that surprising really. He ranked the Sox as 5 before the year and that was before Bogey and JBJr graduated and CVaz is ineligible because he is in the majors. I wish he posted the next five as a list.
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Post by okin15 on Jul 22, 2014 15:02:11 GMT -5
Looking back at his 2014 top tens, Law had our system 4th. Cecchini was 4, Barnes was 7 and Ball was 10. All have certainly fallen. I'd imagine his 8-9 guys, Webster and Ranaudo respectively are up as are Betts and Swihart. While acknowledging that this is putting words in his mouth, it's easy to imagine him being a little lower than me/us on Devers, Marrero, Johnson, Margot, and Coyle based on injuries and/or short track records. He could be reacting to the Betts and Vasquez in MLB (I know, Betts is back) as well. Until we get a little longer track record on some of the recent acquisitions in our top 20 (Devers, Chavis, Kopech, Ball, Travis) our depth is probably a little depleted. Some of the more promising A+ and A- sp's have also fallen out of their depth positions. Between that, and graduating the #2 prospect in baseball, I don't think it's at all suspect to have us outside the top 5 in the game. On the other hand, I'll note that despite pitching well, Webster and Ranaudo have not climbed our prospect list on this site, largely due to the great performances of Betts, Swihart Vaquez and Devers. That's good news for the system, even if it hasn't let to an equally impressive system ranking.
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Post by thebogeyman on Jul 22, 2014 15:47:44 GMT -5
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jul 22, 2014 18:37:46 GMT -5
On our podcast, he acknowledged the discrepancy. He joked "four and a half." My guess is he was flip-flopping and didn't settle on the rankings until after he'd done drafts of the top 10s for each system.
Anyway, I'd go with 5th there.
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