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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 20, 2014 20:24:43 GMT -5
I think people have a mistaken impression of Holt. He had a decent minor league record and enough at bats in the ML to project, at the very least, as a good utility player and maybe a little more than that. The questions i had were about power. Buy he's shown a little of that and, more importantly for me, he's a much better fielder than I thought he was. I was wrong about that. About the only thing he lacks at third base is the range to his left. He's nonetheless very quick with his reactions.
While it's unrealistic to think he can maintain his current BABIP, he could come down to a level more representative of his line drive rate and still be a real asset, as others have pointed out. He really acts like he wants another selfie, someday, with that special friend in tow, another WS ring. The guy is a keeper.
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Post by marrcus on Jul 21, 2014 0:07:04 GMT -5
"about a week away from qualifying with 3.1 PA/game." ----------------------------------------------------
I think since he's come back the second time from Pawt. he's played every inning of every game. Nobody else in MLB has a longer streak. So his PA's added up quickly. Now that personnel are returning that should end although Farrell could make the others take days here and there and position Holt where he wants him.
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jimoh
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Posts: 3,966
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Post by jimoh on Jul 21, 2014 7:44:46 GMT -5
Sickels discussed Holt a couple of days ago and agrees with those who are cautiously optimistic: www.minorleagueball.com/2014/7/17/5838282/prospect-note-brock-holt-inf-boston-red-soxBefore 2013 he said: "He’s not going to hit .344 in a full major league season, but he could probably hit .270 with some doubles and a fair OBP. He was primarily a shortstop last year, but scouts say that his range and arm strength are best-suited for second base. All-told, he fits best as a utility player…" After 2013 he rated him a C prospect and ignored him Now he says "Now I think he's a "natural" .280 hitter who exceeds .300 in his best years when the BABIP falls his way and gets down into the .260s when it doesn't. It would also not surprise me to see him develop more power in his late 20s, and I imagine his walk rates will gradually rise as well, keeping his OBP reasonable even in weaker seasons."
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 21, 2014 19:59:49 GMT -5
"What more can he do?" - Jerry Remy
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 21, 2014 20:02:13 GMT -5
"What more can he do?" - Jerry Remy I'd like to get some pitch framing numbers on him.
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Post by greatscottcooper on Jul 21, 2014 20:12:32 GMT -5
All this talk about Mookie Betts being a super utility type and we had Brock Holt under our noses the whole time...
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 22, 2014 8:58:43 GMT -5
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 22, 2014 9:14:06 GMT -5
Guess which one is Brock Holt? Hint: He weighs 84 pounds here as a freshman in HS. Nice little article
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 23, 2014 13:43:26 GMT -5
Josh (Iowa)
Can I get your opinion on a guy like Brock Holt? Does he continue to have value beyond this season? I keep reading he isn't this good, unimpressive minor league numbers, serious regression to come....what is your take on his future in the league?
Klaw (1:30 PM)
He's not this good. Future bench type.
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Post by klostrophobic on Jul 23, 2014 14:12:37 GMT -5
He now has a career 750 OPS (108 OPS+) in 448 PA and a 782 career minorleague OPS in 2070 PA. If he's a bench player, your team is pretty fantastic.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jul 23, 2014 14:13:01 GMT -5
Josh (Iowa) Can I get your opinion on a guy like Brock Holt? Does he continue to have value beyond this season? I keep reading he isn't this good, unimpressive minor league numbers, serious regression to come....what is your take on his future in the league? Klaw (1:30 PM) He's not this good. Future bench type. Some context: Here's his MiLB slash line: .307 .372 .410 Here's his MLB slash line: .300 .346 .403 Of course, the minor league line was accumulated across all levels, and there was a lot of variability in those performances. But that's also been true of his ML career so far. 'Unimpressive' is open to a lot of interpretations, of course. This isn't Miguel Cabrera. But there does seem to be some consistency in the long term numbers. I don't like his walk rate, but he's been hitting a lot of what he sees. That may change as he cools off, with more patience coming into play. If he does post something like a .275 .340 .400, he's still a real asset.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 23, 2014 14:26:15 GMT -5
Are we really questioning if he is this good? He's been worth 2.5 Fwar in 66 games. That puts him somewhere in the Cano, Votto, Longoria range over a full season. I think he is a super utility player that 80%-100% of teams would carry on their roster depending on their makeup, and there is nothing wrong with that.
Boston seems to love these folk legend players. There's a mysterious Fenway spirit that will bestow magical powers temporarily, as it passed through Lowrie, Redick, Ciriaco, Bradley, and now to Holt.
Holt isn't going to win an MVP (Let's go ROY!!) but he is a valuable player who will do what ever he can to help the team win at basically any position. Let's hope he is on our roster for a long time.
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Post by okin15 on Jul 23, 2014 14:37:09 GMT -5
Are we really questioning if he is this good? He's been worth 2.5 Fwar in 66 games. That puts him somewhere in the Cano, Votto, Longoria range over a full season. I think he is a super utility player that 80%-100% of teams would carry on their roster depending on their makeup, and there is nothing wrong with that. Boston seems to love these folk legend players. There's a mysterious Fenway spirit that will bestow magical powers temporarily, as it passed through Lowrie, Redick, Ciriaco, Bradley, and now to Holt. Holt isn't going to win an MVP (Let's go ROY!!) but he is a valuable player who will do what ever he can to help the team win at basically any position. Let's hope he is on our roster for a long time. You also seem to be questioning how good he is, comparing him to both Cano and Ciriaco in the same post. In my mind, he's in the middle. I wouldn't be horribly surprised if he were nearly as good as Zobrist (over each player's first 5 years) but I think he's probably another step below that. A 3-win (per 150) player on average maybe?
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 23, 2014 14:50:42 GMT -5
Are we really questioning if he is this good? He's been worth 2.5 Fwar in 66 games. That puts him somewhere in the Cano, Votto, Longoria range over a full season. I think he is a super utility player that 80%-100% of teams would carry on their roster depending on their makeup, and there is nothing wrong with that. Boston seems to love these folk legend players. There's a mysterious Fenway spirit that will bestow magical powers temporarily, as it passed through Lowrie, Redick, Ciriaco, Bradley, and now to Holt. Holt isn't going to win an MVP (Let's go ROY!!) but he is a valuable player who will do what ever he can to help the team win at basically any position. Let's hope he is on our roster for a long time. You also seem to be questioning how good he is, comparing him to both Cano and Ciriaco in the same post. In my mind, he's in the middle. I wouldn't be horribly surprised if he were nearly as good as Zobrist (over each player's first 5 years) but I think he's probably another step below that. A 3-win (per 150) player on average maybe? I'm not comparing him to Ciriaco (or Cano), just his situation. There was just so much hype in the twitter sphere about the Chuck Norris type feats those players were capable of in a limited time frame. Remember Free Jed Lowrie? Bradley forcing his way onto the 40 man and ML team in Spring training without ever playing in AAA? I'm not down on Holt. I think Zobrist is right about his ceiling. I think more of his value will come with his defensive versatility than with the bat. He is one of the guys who does a little bit of everything but is not great at anything, although I remember an article from 2013 saying he was our best bunter. Like I said, I like Holt a lot, I am just not going to cast him for Invasion USA part 2. Today is his first day off in a while.
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nomar
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Posts: 10,728
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Post by nomar on Jul 23, 2014 16:49:03 GMT -5
Personally I would sell high on Holt, if possible. Don't know how other GMs view him though.
I believe he can be a starting player 3B/COF, but he will regress a lot unless he cuts his Ks a lot. Even if his K% was what it was in the minors, his BABIP would have to be ~.360 for him to sustain himself right now. Given his weak batted ball distance that's not very likely, even if his LD% stays about as impressive as it has been this year. Good little player, but not as good as a lot of us think/want him him to be. I would personally try to move him and call Mookie up, but I know a lot of you guys aren't of that mindset.
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danr
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Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 23, 2014 17:19:22 GMT -5
Based on his minor league record, Holt's performance should not be as surprising as most make it to be. The only time he hit less than the .288 was the .258 he hit at Pawtucket last year. He also had OPS above .800 in most of his minor league seasons. He is a pretty decent hitter without a lot of power.
I agree with nomar to the extent that I don't see a fit for Holt with the Sox going forward, given the needs the team has. This team needs some power hitters. There has to be at least one in the OF, and if there is only one, then there has to be one at 3B. Bogaerts should become one, but there isn't another really good OF power prospect near the majors. So, assuming that Betts winds up in the OF with Bradley, there is no room for Holt there. And he probably can't hold down the SS position fulltime.
He is a player who could be worth more to another team than he is to the Sox, especially if they need an infield upgrade. I think 2B could be his best position.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 23, 2014 20:23:48 GMT -5
This team needs some power hitters. And once again I must ask for a link to the news that solo home runs count 3 points now. Why does this team specifically need power hitters?
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 23, 2014 21:02:35 GMT -5
The Redsox are 12th out of 15 AL teams in both HR and RBI. Yes, they need more power bats.
Regarding Holt, I don't think it is likely he achieves Zobrist level performance long term as he is unlikely to have that level of pop but he has shown he can play average D almost anywhere, and that is worth a roster spot. And he will get on base at a decent clip. And he's cheap.
He seems to have a seeing eye bat this year. It's almost like it is intentional though, as if he is trying to go Ichiro with the bat sometimes and he gets down the line well. A utility infielder / zobrist type who can fill in for an outfield slot also who can hit .270 is worth a roster slot as a great utility guy. He's almost creating a new roll for an mlb player being able to literally play anywhere except catcher and pitcher. There have been a few such guys in the past but Holt is pulling it off quite well. He's a scrapper in the Pedroia mold. He wakes up in the morning and sees Pedroia in the mirror and goes forward to battle.
Hopefully taking a right turn before he hits the mirror.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 23, 2014 22:30:07 GMT -5
The Redsox are 12th out of 15 AL teams in both HR and RBI. Yes, they need more power bats. Because noone ever gets an RBI on a single. Right.
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Post by fenwaythehardway on Jul 23, 2014 22:56:46 GMT -5
The Redsox are 12th out of 15 AL teams in both HR and RBI. Yes, they need more power bats. Because noone ever gets an RBI on a single. Right. Obviously they do but XBHs are a better way to drive in runners. Especially in today's baseball with strikeouts at an all-time high and defensive shifting taking base hits out of the game, stringing singles together isn't a good strategy. Short-sequence offense is king.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 23, 2014 23:29:14 GMT -5
Because noone ever gets an RBI on a single. Right. Obviously they do but XBHs are a better way to drive in runners. Especially in today's baseball with strikeouts at an all-time high and defensive shifting taking base hits out of the game, stringing singles together isn't a good strategy. Short-sequence offense is king. So what you're saying is "players aren't good at getting singles, therefore you shouldn't go for players who are good at getting singles". Guys, power or not power is a stylistic difference. What matters is total offensive production. I want players with a .359 wOBA, whether they get it like Brock Holt (.321/.366/.450) or like David Ortiz (.253/.349/.500). Obviously people who have a lot of home runs also have a high total offensive production. That doesn't mean there's anything wrong with having an entire team of Brock Holts (2014 edition). (Yes Brock Holt and David Ortiz have the same wOBA as of today. No, I do not think that they will have the same wOBA going forward.)
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 24, 2014 0:21:32 GMT -5
The game is not one big series of mathmatical combinations. There is more benefit to looking at it more as a series of permutations. Most people do not look at it as a series of almost random numbers arranged in a sequence. A constructed permutational approach bears more fruit.
I get that your statistics ability may well be more advanced than mine ( I clepped out of college statistics in high school and admittedly am nowhere near some of the posters here in that knowledge ) but teams still almost universally have an ordered (permutational) batting system where the on base guys get up first and the OPS guys generally bat 3-6. To me, we have been ok in the Ortiz and Napoli slots but weak as heck after them. We need help everywhere in terms of offense but particularly in the rbi department.
Winess that Ortiz is the only guy any where near a 90-100 RBI pace for the year. Even remotely close to it. Pedroia at 37 RBI and Napoli at 36. At this point in the season they are #2 and 3. This team doesn't drive in enough runs. I grant wOBA is probably the best offensive metric there is in determining player value but each team has unique needs, unique park attributes which enhance or reduce player value in a given scenario...etc. Pitchers don't generally walk runners across the plate. When the RISP situations come up, it helps to have high OPS hitters up next.
To me, when Middlebrooks flaked out this year, rather than meet his rookie level projections as an rbi guy, it killed this team as much as anything else.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jul 24, 2014 0:32:24 GMT -5
Not unheard of for a team to try and sell high while they can on a guy like this either. Boston has before and it paid huge dividends.. Cue Ted Cox, the main chip in the Dennis Eckersley deal, who had a huge last half of September '77, after putting up similar numbers to what Holt has throughout his MiLB career.
Far fetched, but Holt still has 6y of team control. Marlins want to possibly move Stanton possibly and could interest them in Holt over Betts as the main piece? I'd rather give them Holt any day of the week. It worked with the Indians and Eckersley. You just never know how gullible a team can be.
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Post by beasleyrockah on Jul 24, 2014 1:14:17 GMT -5
Not unheard of for a team to try and sell high while they can on a guy like this either. Boston has before and it paid huge dividends.. Cue Ted Cox, the main chip in the Dennis Eckersley deal, who had a huge last half of September '77, after putting up similar numbers to what Holt has throughout his MiLB career. Far fetched, but Holt still has 6y of team control. Marlins want to possibly move Stanton possibly and could interest them in Holt over Betts as the main piece? I'd rather give them Holt any day of the week. It worked with the Indians and Eckersley. You just never know how gullible a team can be.[/b] Sure, and we can throw in my less than mint 2000 Topps Morgan Burkhart rookie card and gain ownership of their stadium too.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 24, 2014 2:43:54 GMT -5
Winess that Ortiz is the only guy any where near a 90-100 RBI pace for the year. That's pretty random and a function of how the lineup is constructed. The bottom part of the order has been doing quite poorly so who was Pedroia to bat in? Napoli has been hitting every bit as well as Ortiz, it's just that Ortiz gets the first shot at them. Also Napoli is handicapped by having a poor runner in front of him... when Ortiz doubles, Holt or Pedroia will score from first. When Napoli doubles, Ortiz is gonna chug into third. Anyway, I really don't want to talk about RBIs. Stupidest stat ever. (Well except for GWRBIs, those were ever stupider.) I know it makes some people uncomfortable but math really can be applied very well to baseball. And math tells us that, given 8 league average players, rounding out that lineup with 2014 David Ortiz gives you the same expected amount of runs as rounding it out with 2014 Brock Holt (based on their stats to date). Yes, if league average production were to drop even further, then Ortiz would become better since he's still scoring with homers. But on the flip side, if league average production were to go up, 2014 Brock Holt would actually be better than 2014 David Ortiz. And that is why the weights for wOBA are recalculated every season. BTW, the Dodgers are 10th in runs scored but only 23rd in home runs. The Astros are 4th in home runs and 25th in runs scored. So, to summarize, the Red Sox do not necessarily need a power hitter. They need a good hitter. Let's hope 2015 Brock Holt is as good as 2014 Brock Holt.
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