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2014 MLB Draft - Day 1 Discussion Thread
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 5, 2014 14:08:58 GMT -5
I told you we should have drafted the next Bryce Brentz!
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Post by bentossaurus on Jun 5, 2014 14:12:00 GMT -5
This is the least amount of knowledge I've had going into the draft since I started visiting this site. Can't wait to read the hate on the first 3 picks though. I'm easily amused. I f they pick any of the reported college bats or relievers, I'll join the parade.
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Post by futurefenwaystars on Jun 5, 2014 14:18:27 GMT -5
Hearing all of these names just makes me think how much better the 2013 Draft was than this year. Consider the college bats picked between 26 and 50 last year:
Eric Jagielo (26), Phil Ervin (27), Aaron Judge (32), Michael Lorenzen (38 (I know that he is a pitcher now, but he's still a better OF than any of the players being mentioned between 26 and 33), and Austin Wilson (49).
And look at the college pitchers that were taken between 26 and 40:
Ryne Stanek (29), Sean Manaea (34), Aaron Blair (36), Michael Lorenzen (38), Corey Knebel (39).
The college juniors this year are not very good. I think that the Red Sox should swing for the fences and go for high-upside high school guys. That said, of the college bats available, Reed is my favorite. At least if he doesn't hit they can always try him on the mound.
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Post by futurefenwaystars on Jun 5, 2014 14:20:04 GMT -5
And what this really shows is that the Red Sox should have gone all-in to sign Ryan Boldt last year, even if it meant giving up their first-round pick this year. He is such a better player than the Derek Fishers or Mike Papis of the world.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 5, 2014 14:20:52 GMT -5
Would it really matter if Ortiz is maxed out though? Hasn't he been at 93-97 when healthy? I remember people saying there wasn't much projection left for Jose Fernandez in his draft year and being confused then since reports had him sitting 93-94. There were two questions about Fernandez when he was drafted (and I was very high on him) - conditioning and developing 3rd/4th pitches. Ortiz does have some similar qualities (and questions) to Fernandez but also has health-related questions. He missed time this spring with a sore forearm, which may foretell an elbow issue.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 5, 2014 14:21:01 GMT -5
Previously I said I'd prefer the upside prep bats and arms over the college bats when Casey Gillaspie was mentioned for the Red Sox at 26. While I still prefer the the upside prep bats and arms I have to say I prefer Casey Gillaspie over all the other college bats I'm hearing at 26 including Blandino, Fisher, Reed, Papi etc. Of the "tier 2" college bats, I like (in order) Gillaspie, Papi, Sparks, Fisher, Reed and Blandino. I'd be more inclined to go pitcher at #26, HS (bat/pitcher) at #33 in round 1 and then see if I could pop a "tier 3" college bat like Sam Travis or one of the Davis boys (Dylan or JD) at the end of the 2nd round. I just don't see a lot of value from the college bats early in the draft. Well said. I think a lot of people are hoping Boston will take someone like Reed and all those HR's will translate to the Pro's. Not many teams have had any success in the draft getting college power hitters at all to hit for power lately, much less in the 1st round. Might as well wait until later down, say rounds 3-5 and see what can be had there. Pitching is still the most valuable commodity in the game and enough can never be had. If a decent pitcher is available at #26/33, the team should take them over attempting to grab something that has rougher odds to develop, according to what has been the rule the last decade or so around the league.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 5, 2014 14:27:54 GMT -5
When we get to the signings thread, can we have a mod delete every post bitching about players who won't sign even though everyone knew they wanted to go to college? That is the most annoying annual argument.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Jun 5, 2014 14:31:26 GMT -5
I hope we draft someone like Brandon Moss. *sigh* How bout Lowrie at 26 and Brandon at 33? ...these are the poster children for being patient with players. The Sox sold low on both it turns out.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 5, 2014 14:32:49 GMT -5
How bout Lowrie at 26 and Brandon at 33? ...these are the poster children for being patient with players. The Sox sold low on both it turns out. Well to be fair, Moss went through the Pirates and Phillies as well. I somehow expect this to be WMB's path.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 5, 2014 14:34:19 GMT -5
Hearing all of these names just makes me think how much better the 2013 Draft was than this year. Consider the college bats picked between 26 and 50 last year: Eric Jagielo (26), Phil Ervin (27), Aaron Judge (32), Michael Lorenzen (38 (I know that he is a pitcher now, but he's still a better OF than any of the players being mentioned between 26 and 33), and Austin Wilson (49). And look at the college pitchers that were taken between 26 and 40: Ryne Stanek (29), Sean Manaea (34), Aaron Blair (36), Michael Lorenzen (38), Corey Knebel (39). The college juniors this year are not very good. I think that the Red Sox should swing for the fences and go for high-upside high school guys. That said, of the college bats available, Reed is my favorite. At least if he doesn't hit they can always try him on the mound. I don't get your point. Only Austin Wilson was around when the Red Sox made their 2nd pick of the draft. Last year was last year; each draft has its strengths and weaknesses. I've already stated my approach to drafting tonight based on this draft's strengths and weaknesses.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jun 5, 2014 14:34:48 GMT -5
The Red Sox had draft bonus pool money on the table that they could not spend last year. I suspect that they might alter their drafting strategy a little to draft some of the tough signs a little earlier and then play them off against each other to see which of them are willing to delay their college education for the pursuit of a professional baseball career.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 5, 2014 14:41:17 GMT -5
Have fun at UNC, Jack.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 5, 2014 14:51:19 GMT -5
Last year was last year; each draft has its strengths and weaknesses. I've already stated my approach to drafting tonight based on this draft's strengths and weaknesses. Here's Nick Faleris' view of the draft (he's BP's draft guy, BTW):
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 5, 2014 14:56:16 GMT -5
Kiley McDaniel @kileymcd · 26m The Carlos Rodon bonus demand hammer has dropped. I'm told its $6 million plus. Aiken heavy favorite to go 1-1 now.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 5, 2014 14:59:59 GMT -5
What do you guys think of the mock with Fedde? I'm not sure I like it. To me he comes off as Stankiewicz after 3 years of college + an injury.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 5, 2014 15:00:29 GMT -5
Has there been any evaluation of how college pitchers are used compared to HS pitcher draftees in organizations with the top priority of keeping them healthy? Seems like an obvious year to ask it, though it's hard to keep track of the HS pitchers 2-3 years later so it's an apples to apples comparison.
I'm curious because I tend to suspect that there are some college managers who are more worried about keeping their jobs than preventing some kid like Rodon from needing TJS in a few years because he's out there for 140 pitches.
If that turns out to be the case, will more HS arms skip college?
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Post by futurefenwaystars on Jun 5, 2014 15:21:22 GMT -5
Hearing all of these names just makes me think how much better the 2013 Draft was than this year. Consider the college bats picked between 26 and 50 last year: Eric Jagielo (26), Phil Ervin (27), Aaron Judge (32), Michael Lorenzen (38 (I know that he is a pitcher now, but he's still a better OF than any of the players being mentioned between 26 and 33), and Austin Wilson (49). And look at the college pitchers that were taken between 26 and 40: Ryne Stanek (29), Sean Manaea (34), Aaron Blair (36), Michael Lorenzen (38), Corey Knebel (39). The college juniors this year are not very good. I think that the Red Sox should swing for the fences and go for high-upside high school guys. That said, of the college bats available, Reed is my favorite. At least if he doesn't hit they can always try him on the mound. I don't get your point. Only Austin Wilson was around when the Red Sox made their 2nd pick of the draft. Last year was last year; each draft has its strengths and weaknesses. I've already stated my approach to drafting tonight based on this draft's strengths and weaknesses. My only point is that all through last draft season I kept hearing about how the 2013 draft class was weak and there seemed to be a particular criticism of how there wasn't a single college outfielder who didn't have at least one significant question mark (Lorenzen's power, Judge's and Wilson's hit tool). And part of what I also remember was people saying that 2014 was a better draft class. But here we are today and I'm not all that impressed with what's available. I chose picks 26 to 40/50 just to point out how much stronger of a class 2013 was compared to 2014.
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Post by amfox1 on Jun 5, 2014 15:29:33 GMT -5
I disagree because you are comparing apples to cantaloupe. The strength of this class is the HS pitching. There is no question that the college hitting is weak. However, Lorenzen, Judge and Wilson were all significantly flawed last year, so some of your criticism looks to be hindsight.
The problem last year is that the Red Sox picked 7th in a six-man elite class. The Phillies have a similar issue this year in a five-man elite class (the Cubs are likely to go off the board).
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Post by lennsakata on Jun 5, 2014 15:37:07 GMT -5
Would it really matter if Ortiz is maxed out though? Hasn't he been at 93-97 when healthy? I remember people saying there wasn't much projection left for Jose Fernandez in his draft year and being confused then since reports had him sitting 93-94. There were two questions about Fernandez when he was drafted (and I was very high on him) - conditioning and developing 3rd/4th pitches. Ortiz does have some similar qualities (and questions) to Fernandez but also has health-related questions. He missed time this spring with a sore forearm, which may foretell an elbow issue. Right but your initial point was that he was maxed out and I'm just saying who cares if he's maxed out if he is able to operate between 93-97...I feel 93-97 is an aggressive expectation or nice outcome for sitting velocity on the prospects we try to project. Forearm issue is completely different, understand that causing pause with some other talented HS pitchers in that samme range.
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Post by taftreign on Jun 5, 2014 15:49:43 GMT -5
I still hope they do the right thing (according to me) and grab a pair of Harrison, Chavis, Forbes, Davidson, Vallot, Ortiz, Griffin, Adams, Flaherty, Kopech and so forth. I think it's a mistake to lump all the HSers together. For instance, I would be disappointed with Flaherty (lower ceiling guy for me) and Ortiz (maxed out physically). On the other hand, I would be thrilled with Adams, Griffin or Kopech. On the hitting side, I love Harrison (assuming the late rumors are just a ploy to knock him down to TEX/ATL), although he is a boom-or-bust pick. I am warming to Vallot (and Jakson Reetz) at #33. I like Davidson if they think he can play RF in addition to 1B. I'm not sold on Forbes (going to outgrow SS, bat may not work at 3B or CF) or Chavis (classic tweener). Yes I agree they're not all equal. I give a little leeway to the front office to determine which are the right ones as they have much more knowledge than any of us on each of these players. Personally I'd be fine with a few bats like Harrison, Davidson, Vallot or Reetz, who was one of my likely after 33 but before 67 players, or a pair of arms like Griffin, Kopech or Adams or a somewhat intriguing Blewett or a mix between. If they could get Vallot, Reetz or Blewett at below slot i'd like them better. I'm not totally scared off by Chavis as I think he has options either at 2B or 3B as I do believe in the bat but I also think Boston would be a team that would consider the C experiment. Forbes is probably the riskiest hitter and might be too much to take a chance on but if he achieves his potential. Flaherty is definitely out of the question with his demands. Still I like most of them if not all more than AJ Reed or Derek Fisher.
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Post by GyIantosca on Jun 5, 2014 16:16:56 GMT -5
I hope we draft Monte Harrison and out of the 3 picks I hope its 2 outfielders and 1 pitcher. Unless someone real good slips like Max Pentecost.
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Post by bigpupp on Jun 5, 2014 16:23:15 GMT -5
I'll pile on that I'd like Harrison. If not him, and paired with an arm, I would love to see Braxton Davidson with number 33.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jun 5, 2014 16:26:11 GMT -5
Harrison is the guy that I want at #26...rumors about a bad workout don't phase me... for all we know, that could be a smoke screen put up by teams drafting lower in the hope that he slips (e.g. Braves, Rangers).
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 5, 2014 16:28:44 GMT -5
@chrismwebb: Building on what Keith Law stated in latest mock, Sam Travis is in play for Boston at 26, among a group of 5 at top of board. Keeps rising.
He covers Big Ten Baseball.
Here is some vid of the Indiana 1B.
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Post by adiospaydro2005 on Jun 5, 2014 16:41:25 GMT -5
That would be some serious helium for Travis who is ranked #56 overall by BA. I thought Travis would be more in play possibly at #36. Seems to be a huge reach #26 based on BA rankings.
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