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Sox Problems Scouting Professional FAs?
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Post by suttree on Jun 8, 2014 13:42:30 GMT -5
They are extremely risk averse now. The Sox value flexibility over upside. The consequence of that is they will miss on big IFAs because the risk is too high. I think it's actually by design, which is a shame. Particularly in trade situations, a totally craven fear of looking bad has - not just now but traditionally - permeated the front office. Prospects like Lars Andersen and Michael Bowden are held onto literally until they're worth nothing to other organizations rather than risk the possibility the player might bounce back up in value. It still burns my biscuits that Arizona offered us Miguel Montero for Bowden and Theo was too afraid to pull the trigger - and that was when we really needed a catcher too. When you step back and look at it, a team with a top 5 payroll (usually higher) has missed the playoffs 3 of the last 4 years and could miss it a 4th time. The magical 2013 season where everything went right overshadows a lot of underlying problems. They seem to be jerking Lester around because of the Beckett resigning, passing on Darvish/Tanaka because of Dice-K, and letting Ells walk away over the Crawford mess. It seems very reactionary, as if making small bets leaves you less prone to criticism. There is a soundness to the overall plan but there are also plenty of mistakes and missteps. They seem to be hoarding prospect depth so they have a backup plan when they finally make their next big bet.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 8, 2014 13:52:21 GMT -5
But yes, based on their results, I believe their process in a acquiring international professional free agents to this point has been deeply flawed, especially when held up against their performance of MLB free agent and amateur prospect acquisition. Make no mistake, this is a great organization, and obviously not everyone hits every time with every move (even Billy Beane). But this is one component of player acquisition that appears to have lagged behind the others. I believe this and I wondered if anyone else believed it, too. It will be a growing area of both opportunity and peril in the coming years, especially with the Japanese players and the posting system being changed, but also as more Cuban players free themselves from that country's oppressive ways. I am just wondering if their process paradigm is this area needs some re-thinking by the organization. So, let me ask you. What is your solution to this so-called flaw? Is it just to start bidding more aggressively for Cuban and Japanese talent? How much money would you offer Carbonell? Throwing money around is never an answer. With the Japanese players in particular, however, their abilities and body of work is much more firmly established and accessible. Perhaps it is time to readjust how, or how intensely, they have been scouting those players. They may even want to consider with varying weight some nontraditional smaller sampling into their evaluations. For example, in addition to routine evaluations of tools, approach, and how they do vs. international competition, perhaps also examine, say, who are the position players who hit Tanaka well over the last 2-4 years? What does the video say about their at bats? Were they lucky? Were they making solid contact? Is there any overlap with these players and those who hit Darvish well before he was posted? Or Iwakmura? If you get a yes for all three, how is/are these players vs. other elite Japanese pitchers? How are they vs their league average pitchers? Will any of these players be posted in the next 1-3 years? Will any be free agents. With regards to Carbonell, it's a strawman since I've never seen him live or versus live pitching and I've even said on this board I have no idea what he is other than a great wide-out candidate for the Patriots based solely on his build and speed. But that's not my job. It is their job. If they pass and he's a bust, fine, they did their job well. But if they miss on another guy who "just cost money" again in a position of extreme need (OF) then I would contend that they aren't doing this part of their job - scouting international pros - well.
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Post by jmei on Jun 8, 2014 14:07:37 GMT -5
Yeah, so it's just "scout better." I agree, it would be terrific if they scouted veteran IFAs better. It'd also be great if they scouted free agents, trade acquisitions, draft picks, amateur IFAs, etc. better as well. But I don't think that's something we're qualified to assess with any degree of certainty, especially when your sample size is basically five guys.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jun 8, 2014 14:15:33 GMT -5
No, the guy was an aging, broken down, performance-enhancer abusing .260 hitter the past 3 years who is a butcher in the field. Again, Monday morning quarterbacking. Would it be nice using hindsight? Sure, but even then you have to admit that this run he is on now is pretty improbable. In this case? No not for me anyways. But then again, I didn't think that Nava was that great and most other people on the board do. The guy ended up signing for peanuts. As far as his defense goes that would have been mitigated by Fenway. The one rule of baseball we should always follow is that if you can hit, they will find a place for you (Greg Luzinski rule).
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Post by Guidas on Jun 8, 2014 14:19:19 GMT -5
Yeah, so it's just "scout better." I agree, it would be terrific if they scouted veteran IFAs better. It'd also be great if they scouted free agents, trade acquisitions, draft picks, amateur IFAs, etc. better as well. But I don't think that's something we're qualified to assess with any degree of certainty, especially when your sample size is basically five guys. No. Scout differently.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 8, 2014 14:28:33 GMT -5
I'm down with making Guidas head scout of professional international free agents. Never gonna miss anything.
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Post by joshv02 on Jun 8, 2014 14:29:13 GMT -5
I'm down with making Guidas head scout of professional international free agents. Never gonna miss anything. At least not the next year
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Post by jmei on Jun 8, 2014 14:34:30 GMT -5
Yeah, so it's just "scout better." I agree, it would be terrific if they scouted veteran IFAs better. It'd also be great if they scouted free agents, trade acquisitions, draft picks, amateur IFAs, etc. better as well. But I don't think that's something we're qualified to assess with any degree of certainty, especially when your sample size is basically five guys. No. Scout differently. Well, presumably, to scout better, they need to scout differently. The problem is that we don't know how they scout veteran IFAs. You outlined some interesting ideas above, but it is very possible that the Red Sox utilize some/all of those methods already. Whether they use them or not, we don't know if those methods would get you to the desired result (i.e., figuring out that Puig/Darvish/Tanaka are the guys you want while Kei Igawa and Jose Contreras aren't). We just have no idea how they do things, which means we have no idea how to improve the way they do things, which makes this whole discussion kind of pointless.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 8, 2014 15:01:48 GMT -5
I'm down with making Guidas head scout of professional international free agents. Never gonna miss anything. At least not the next year Better make it two years. Even my hindsight isn't 20-20.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 8, 2014 15:32:35 GMT -5
After three World Series titles, maybe John Henry is just looking for more of a challenge than simply winning games. Maybe he's trying to optimize his wins AND profits. If so, I sure hope he's doing well in his profits column, since we aren't doing so well in the wins column. Here's an interesting recent article that may shed some light on John Henry's method of player valuation and profit maximization: www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-04-24/john-henry-and-the-making-of-a-boston-red-sox-baseball-dynasty#p6"Henry says the Red Sox use as many as three 'nonbaseball financial experts' to determine how much to spend on a particular player." If MLB ever permits advertising on team jerseys, a John Henry owned Red Sox team should probably be re-christened "The Red Sox as presented by Charles Schwab." Yeah definitely since those titles are so distant them methods surely haven't worked.
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Post by pedroelgrande on Jun 8, 2014 15:34:22 GMT -5
At least not the next year Better make it two years. Even my hindsight isn't 20-20. Have to give some leeway for the unknown.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 8, 2014 18:16:03 GMT -5
Don't count on it. I never would've made the Punto trade. I would've just looked for a taker for Beckett even if I had to pay half his salary.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 8, 2014 21:45:41 GMT -5
Guidas, not very complex. Scouting is not the problem, but the issue is their spending policies and concept of value and unwillingness to get in bidding wars as dictated by the "market" Don't buy the "flexibility argument", which is a rationale for their policy and a smoke screen that many buy into. JH is correct about the irrationality of markets, but if they want to compete then they may have to play. By the way, this market works in favors of the workers (players) and of course the big money teams ( Red Sox?) The smoke screen worked so well that you missed the World Series they won last year.
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Post by jimed14 on Jun 8, 2014 21:48:49 GMT -5
I'm down with making Guidas head scout of professional international free agents. Never gonna miss anything. As long as he has a stack of blank checks.
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Post by soxfanatic on Jun 9, 2014 11:27:37 GMT -5
I'll just leave this here for guidas: Ben Badler ?@benbadler 14 min. Rusney Castillo, the top Cuban player on the market, has a new highlight video. His home run-saving catch is terrific bit.ly/1pWpw7Y Red Sox Fan ?@redsoxfannnn 11 min. @benbadler Is he better than Carbonell? Ben Badler ?@benbadler 6 min. @redsoxfannnn Yes.
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Post by Guidas on Jun 9, 2014 14:25:21 GMT -5
I posted that over on the OF thread, as well.
No idea about either of these guys, only that if either is MLB ave. Sox sure could use one of them, like now.
Carbonell has to sign by July 2 btw, to avoid being counted against Intl pool $$$.
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