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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 1, 2012 8:45:30 GMT -5
Let's hope that this is not Bagwell redux. It isn't. Jeff Bagwell should be in the Hall of Fame. Through his age-25 season, Bagwell had compiled a .295/.380/.464 career line. It's a totally unfair comparison to both players. Oh, I understand and agree in a strict sense. My comment was something of an exaggeration to make a point....that what we traded and got in return might prove to be of substantially unequal value because another organization was better able to assess a player's potential.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 1, 2012 8:52:54 GMT -5
That happens every year though. To compare every trade where one team is right about a player and another is wrong to Jeff Bagwell(!!) actually hurts your point. The same standard would have to apply to Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who the Rangers didn't think could be an acceptable MLB catcher, but has been. Or to Mike Aviles, who the Royals didn't think could play every day shortstop.
Josh Reddick may turn out to be a solid major league regular, but a team trading a player who turned out to be better than they thought he would isn't the franchise-crippling move that trading a future Hall of Famer would be.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 1, 2012 9:05:09 GMT -5
That happens every year though. To compare every trade where one team is right about a player and another is wrong to Jeff Bagwell(!!) actually hurts your point. The same standard would have to apply to Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who the Rangers didn't think could be an acceptable MLB catcher, but has been. Or to Mike Aviles, who the Royals didn't think could play every day shortstop. Josh Reddick may turn out to be a solid major league regular, but a team trading a player who turned out to be better than they thought he would isn't the franchise-crippling move that trading a future Hall of Famer would be. JD, the value Reddick brought this year compared to Bailey was pretty far apart. Now that is not fair to Bailey because he was injured. But if Bailey (with a good injury history already) proves only serviceable and Reddick goes on to be a perenneal 30 hr, 100 rbi guy, this would be a bigger deal than a more one-sided type of trade that happens each year. And I did not say this would be the end result. I hope that Bailey is lights out for a long time. Maybe Reddick will fizzle. Perhaps a better analogy would be to hope we don't have the reverse of when we traded a reliever for Varitek and Lowe.
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steveofbradenton
Veteran
Watching Spring Training, the FCL, and the Florida State League
Posts: 1,823
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Post by steveofbradenton on Oct 1, 2012 10:52:12 GMT -5
That happens every year though. To compare every trade where one team is right about a player and another is wrong to Jeff Bagwell(!!) actually hurts your point. The same standard would have to apply to Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who the Rangers didn't think could be an acceptable MLB catcher, but has been. Or to Mike Aviles, who the Royals didn't think could play every day shortstop. Josh Reddick may turn out to be a solid major league regular, but a team trading a player who turned out to be better than they thought he would isn't the franchise-crippling move that trading a future Hall of Famer would be. JD, the value Reddick brought this year compared to Bailey was pretty far apart. Now that is not fair to Bailey because he was injured. But if Bailey (with a good injury history already) proves only serviceable and Reddick goes on to be a perenneal 30 hr, 100 rbi guy, this would be a bigger deal than a more one-sided type of trade that happens each year. And I did not say this would be the end result. I hope that Bailey is lights out for a long time. Maybe Reddick will fizzle. Perhaps a better analogy would be to hope we don't have the reverse of when we traded a reliever for Varitek and Lowe. Maybe wrong, but wait to see what he does next year Ken. Reddick has a few holes. If he only hit 16-17 homers next year with that ave and OBP, I doubt anyone will be sorry. Always liked his D and power, but always worried about the other stuff. Unless Zeus throws another thunderbolt at Bailey, he will be quite useful next year and make us all feel better.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 1, 2012 12:48:19 GMT -5
No question, Steve, that we are only taking a snapshot in time with Reddick & Bailey. Josh has less of a track record. I have a bias toward Reddick, I confess.
We know that he has the power to hit 30+hrs.... Will he hit for average, increase his selectivity (leads Oakland team with 55 walks) and repeat his hr output or will the league expose him? We'll see. But, right now, I would surely love to have him in right with Ross in left & Ells of 2011 in center.
We are some 75 homers behind the Yankees. Papi & Middlebrooks would close some of that gap but if Iglesias is at short and we can't produce a corner OF and 1B with power, that lack will offset.
True enough we need a reliable closer too and Bailey had proven himself to be one of those.
Again, exciting times are upon us.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 2, 2012 22:22:42 GMT -5
On the last post, Norm, I have to disagree with your comments on Beane. "year after year after year?" The A's have been above .500 since 2006. I don't think he's terrible by any means, but it's hard to look at the A's recent track record and praise him to the heavens. Andrew Friedman and the Rays, on the other hand, make your point well. Ah, but from 1998 to 2006 - where the echoes of the current Rays lineup were first heard on draft day - it's a very different story. During that period of time, the Rays averaged less than 64 wins a year, losing at least 100 games three times. The Athletics during the same period of time averaged 90 wins and won over 100 games twice. We know what that means for their draft position. To their credit, it required good scouting on Tampa's part to take advantage of that. And Friedman is a very good GM, knowing when to cut his losses. But when it comes to working the magic, I do think Beane's in his own league. Beane makes fools of us all, year after year, after year. He's an absolute master at roster construction Andre Ethier and Carlos Gonzales would sure look good in A's uniforms. I agree with his philosophy and he is pretty good at what he does but he's no god. Ethier may be the counter-example that helped Beane re-locate his mojo. It reached the point where he was taking on players like Bradley, who could be phenomenal but who also had a world of personal problems, trying to push through to another Series trip. He's not doing that these days. Gonzalez is a different matter. The numbers are dazzling - in Denver that is.He's got a very large home-road split over his career, almost .270 points of OPS more at home than on the road. including nearly .200 points of slugging. How well would that play in Oakland? We'll never know for sure, but it's unlikely he'd be seen as the star that some people think he is. That Rocky Mountain.High doesn't seem to play as well at sea level. He's certainly no god. He can be ruthless. It is, after all, a business. But he is a great GM. He's shown that over and over again. Again, unknowable, but I doubt he would have lasted more than two years in Boston.
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Post by elguapo on Oct 10, 2012 12:04:12 GMT -5
Just to follow up on Reddick's final regular season line:
1st half: .268 / .348 / .532 / .880 2nd half: .215 / .256 / .391 / .647 Total: .242 / .305 / .463 / .768
Reddick's career OBP sits right at .300, if you round up.
Comparing Francoeur Sr & Jr's career slash through age 25: SR: .271 / .311 / .432 / .743 JR: .244 / .300 / .445 / .745
Of course by age 25 Jeff Francoeur had given up any pretense of plate discipline, publicly scorned OBP, and believed he was proving the haters wrong. (And no longer had strong defensive ratings.)
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 10, 2012 18:06:01 GMT -5
Just to follow up on Reddick's final regular season line: 1st half: .268 / .348 / .532 / .880 2nd half: .215 / .256 / .391 / .647 Total: .242 / .305 / .463 / .768 Reddick's career OBP sits right at .300, if you round up. Comparing Francoeur Sr & Jr's career slash through age 25: SR: .271 / .311 / .432 / .743 JR: .244 / .300 / .445 / .745 Of course by age 25 Jeff Francoeur had given up any pretense of plate discipline, publicly scorned OBP, and believed he was proving the haters wrong. (And no longer had strong defensive ratings.) I just have a 'feelin'' and maybe a "thing"about Josh Reddick. I remember that Carlton Fisk had a terrible second half his first year in Boston. Hey, 32 dingers is 32 dingers. How many guys did that this year? Yo Oakland! You can have Bailey back and Ross, Bard and more and we will take Reddick. I'll bet Oakland says "no deal" even given his .216 second half BA. . IMO, this guy has more upside ahead. He will adjust to his second half and improve. I think that we will all rue the day. I hope that Kalish ultimately plays some role for us, but so far, he has consecutive wasted seasons. No [/b]poster here, even the most positive, is mentioning Kalish for next season or beyond. Taking off the rose-colored for a second, we have a long string of fundamental talent evaluation errors. Hey, it is not just bad luck! Lackey. Melancon, Bailey, Crawford, Agon (would we have traded him even up for Rizzo?) were all negative net result. As is the current popular phrase....we need a reset button....and much better talent evaluation on both sides of a potential trade and with draft picks. It looks, for all the world, that the Sox got fat, happy & hosed. I hope the Sox get to 81-81 next season or at least be fun to watch. I think Napoli and Jackson are our most likely and hoped for additions. Kuroda re-ups with the Yanks and so does Swisher As to the concept of "contend", mine is a top 4 team in baseball realistically capable of winning it all. A team edging into the playoffs hoping for the miracle of the ages..e.g. a 1984 Olympic hockey win against the Russians, does not pass my test.
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Post by elguapo on Oct 12, 2012 9:04:03 GMT -5
Reddick in the playoffs:
2 for 17, 1 walk, 10 Ks, 1 hr, .461 OPS
Brutal.
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Post by sarasoxer on Oct 12, 2012 18:32:57 GMT -5
Reddick in the playoffs: 2 for 17, 1 walk, 10 Ks, 1 hr, .461 OPS Brutal. Great!! Buy low!
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