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The Rotation Going Forward
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Post by larrycook on Jun 13, 2014 8:04:27 GMT -5
I don't move either of Lester or Lackey unless we fall way out of contention, in which case I defenitely put out feelers for trades on both. I think it is time to look into trading Lester. Trading Lester now gives us a chance to get a Joc Peterson type in return. Webster is throwing a little better lately. And while I am not sure that Ranauldo's or Barnes's two pitch punch is enough for him to be successful as a starter in Boston, I think they deserve the chance to prove if they can succeed. I don't think we can count on Buchholz for the remainder of this year. He has a giddyup in his shoulder. It is preventing him from coming over the top on his throws like last year. Whatever is wrong in there does not look to be going away anytime soon. Somehow the Sox have to make room for Owens and Johnson and even Couch to start in Pawtucket.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 13, 2014 8:08:41 GMT -5
I'm skeptical of any prospect's numbers in Albuquerque. It's more of a time to extend Lester than trade him. This team without Lester and Lackey would be scary bad next year.
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Post by larrycook on Jun 13, 2014 12:52:26 GMT -5
I'm skeptical of any prospect's numbers in Albuquerque. It's more of a time to extend Lester than trade him. This team without Lester and Lackey would be scary bad next year. This year's team with Lester and Lackey is scary bad! Maybe if Cherrington shakes things up, and gives some Pawtucket starters some games this year, he will have a better handle on what we need next year. A 2015 rotation of Lackey Buchholz (if healthy) Workman De La Rosa Webster can win some games for us if the offense improves.
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Post by redsox04071318champs on Jun 13, 2014 16:02:05 GMT -5
I'm skeptical of any prospect's numbers in Albuquerque. It's more of a time to extend Lester than trade him. This team without Lester and Lackey would be scary bad next year. This year's team with Lester and Lackey is scary bad! Maybe if Cherrington shakes things up, and gives some Pawtucket starters some games this year, he will have a better handle on what we need next year. A 2015 rotation of Lackey Buchholz (if healthy) Workman De La Rosa Webster can win some games for us if the offense improves. If Cherington did that, he'd discover that he needs a starter the caliber of Jon Lester to top the rotation. That 2015 rotation you have listed is pretty scary. We don't know if Lackey is really coming back in 2015. I'd suspect the Sox and Lackey renegotiate some sort of extension. We don't know if Buchholz will be healthy or effective. Workman looks great so far. He looked very home run prone in Pawtucket. My guess is with regular exposure he's probably either a solid reliever or a bottom of the rotation starter. De La Rosa and Webster are kids who deserve looks but I'd much rather it be at the expense of a Buchholz or a Doubront, who you don't have listed, and not Lester. The Sox need to sign Lester, not at all costs obviously, but if they went into 2015 with the rotation you mentioned I'd be kind of worried.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Jun 16, 2014 20:40:30 GMT -5
So many questions. How are we going to be able to keep Ruby and Workman in the rotation? How long can we realistically expect to hold Buchholz down in AAA for? I feel like Ruby and Workman should be kept up in boston at this point.
Doubront looks like he is coming back soon. Maybe a trade is likely? Maybe Peavy? Thoughts?
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Post by chavopepe2 on Jun 16, 2014 20:41:50 GMT -5
If there is any market for Peavy - even if the Sox have to eat a chunk of his salary - he's the guy to move.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jun 16, 2014 21:11:45 GMT -5
So many questions. How are we going to be able to keep Ruby and Workman in the rotation? How long can we realistically expect to hold Buchholz down in AAA for? I feel like Ruby and Workman should be kept up in boston at this point. Doubront looks like he is coming back soon. Maybe a trade is likely? Maybe Peavy? Thoughts? There may not be holes in the rotation - but I count 1-3 holes in the bullpen and nobody knocking on the door to take that role. Would be great if one of this guys can solidify the pen.
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Post by mredsox89 on Jun 16, 2014 23:27:11 GMT -5
Biggest thing I've taken from Rubby's few starts in Boston this year is how good he truly could be if he is able to harness everything and tighten up his command.
Yea, the chances of him ever getting to that point on a consistent basis are slim, no doubt. But there are very few guys who have at least shown glimpses of success at the MLB level that have that potential
I would imagine the Sox still think he has things to improve on at AAA, though they would be hard pressed not to go with the higher upside guy vs. Doubront at this point in time
I'd go with Rubby in the rotation and Felix to the pen, though I have little confidence that will be the end result. Either way, The Rubby/Barnes/Webster trio has brightened over the last month
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 16, 2014 23:33:50 GMT -5
The color guy on the postgame identified two more pitchers who have earned a shot at MLB time -- Steven Wright and Allen Webster. In that order. Good to know that there are some guys who aren't biased against the knuckleball. I'll have some stats tomorrow, hopefully.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 17, 2014 0:10:41 GMT -5
If the looks like Sox aren't going to make a run for the playoffs then service time and super-two considerations will likely determine a lot of who sees how much time in the second half. Particularly true of Workman who is likely in super-two range if he spends the rest of the year here. Additionally, if they send someone down for those reasons, they will be down for more than 30 days.
It's business and if we aren't making the playoffs then business can increase the value of certain pitchers going forward. The three pitchers who could be effected by those decisions are Workman, RDLR & Webster.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 17, 2014 0:16:46 GMT -5
If the looks like Sox aren't going to make a run for the playoffs then service time and super-two considerations will likely determine a lot of who sees how much time in the second half. Particularly true of Workman who is likely in super-two range if he spends the rest of the year here. Additionally, if they send someone down for those reasons, they will be down for more than 30 days. It's business and if we aren't making the playoffs then business can increase the value of certain pitchers going forward. Good point on Super 2 status, but I can't recall Boston every really doing that before? Am I missing someone? Granted, the team has Bucholz and Doubront as theoretical starters, but even casual fans can smell a rat when presented with it.. Both Workman and RDLR have been pretty effective in the rotation, for the FO to send one, even both of them down? Those guys had better be effective immediately upon returning from the DL, this isn't the Padres, nor Pirates here where only 5-10k fans are regularly in the stands and they can get away with pulling purely cost cutting moves off.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 17, 2014 0:36:03 GMT -5
In the general case, super-two is usually only considered when there is a likelyhood that the player might be a star. The reason for that is that super-two happens far after the service time date and therefore teams are forced to decide between having a potential star on their roster now vs several million dollars and the bigger the star, the more millions. However, if there's pretty much no chance of making the playoffs, the value of having them on a current team is significantly lessened since making the playoffs should be goal number one.
Realistically, they can justify it right now. Felix is almost due back, he has no options and only Workman and RDLR have options.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 17, 2014 0:46:06 GMT -5
They can justify it to themselves for this reason, but the other part I did quote you wrote and is still pertinent, is that the team is winning and both RDLR and Workman were both jam-up effective while both were away.
*if* the team is still trying to win and by all means we know it is, we would think they need the best that they have available and that isn't 2 struggling pitchers.
Possibility? Maybe one of Workman/RDLR is being used as a piece for a YOUNG OF bat to be acquired, or someone who can help out in the OF and be controlled for at least a few seasons.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 17, 2014 1:04:18 GMT -5
I'm referring to if we are out of it. If we are involved in a race then we're more likely to keep those that can help us win, the other stuff becomes secondary.
Just based on eyeball looks without actually counting days, and assuming Cot's is correct with service time for the start of the year, it appears that:
If he stays up the rest of the year, Workman will likely end the year with a little over one year service time. If we send him down for about 30 days and if he goes on to being a full time MLB player after this year, he will likely qualify for super-two but effectively delayed by one year. In effect, either option will cost the Sox about the same in dollars but sending him down gives us an additional year of his services.
RDLR is unlikely to be a decision because almost no matter what we realistically do, RDLR will not have a year service time but will be a super two.
Webster is about 30 days from neither being able to accumulate a year or qualify for super two. If we call him up in that time, hypothetically he could be a super two.
If we trade anybody, they are worth more to the receiving team if they have less service time and are unlikely to qualify as super two.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 17, 2014 5:02:50 GMT -5
So many questions. How are we going to be able to keep Ruby and Workman in the rotation? How long can we realistically expect to hold Buchholz down in AAA for? I feel like Ruby and Workman should be kept up in boston at this point. Doubront looks like he is coming back soon. Maybe a trade is likely? Maybe Peavy? Thoughts? There may not be holes in the rotation - but I count 1-3 holes in the bullpen and nobody knocking on the door to take that role. Would be great if one of this guys can solidify the pen. A guy good enough to start is good enough to supplant Breslow and/or Mujica (who are more mediocrities than holes, BTW. Capuano has hit a rough stretch, but he is projected and can be expected to be solid hereafter.) I want to see them trade Peavy and Breslow, sooner than later. I'm unsure whether Workman or Doubront should be the 5th starter on merit, but bullpen balance says that Doubront goes to the pen. And eventually, they may want to deal Mujica and promote Webster, Wright, Ranaudo, or (if they need another LHR) Layne.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 17, 2014 5:21:11 GMT -5
I don't get all the dissing of Breslow. He's not a closer and not a setup guy either, what he has been for nearly his entire career is a solid RP that is steady with his numbers, as solid as most anyone as a middle reliever that there is and Boston has a 4m option for next season that going by today's standards isn't a bad deal at all.
yeah.. His BB/9 and K/9 numbers are both headed somewhat in the wrong direction, even last year when he was really effective, but getting rid of someone, just because he started out the season late, missing all of ST and has gotten off to a slow start might be short sighted with someone of his caliber.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 17, 2014 5:54:11 GMT -5
I don't get all the dissing of Breslow. I guess you missed the post where Eric laid out his numbers the 1st/2nd time facing a batter vs. the 3rd+ time facing a batter.
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Post by wcsoxfan on Jun 17, 2014 6:08:40 GMT -5
I don't get all the dissing of Breslow. He's not a closer and not a setup guy either, what he has been for nearly his entire career is a solid RP that is steady with his numbers, as solid as most anyone as a middle reliever that there is and Boston has a 4m option for next season that going by today's standards isn't a bad deal at all. yeah.. His BB/9 and K/9 numbers are both headed somewhat in the wrong direction, even last year when he was really effective, but getting rid of someone, just because he started out the season late, missing all of ST and has gotten off to a slow start might be short sighted with someone of his caliber. I think the bolded points outline the issue. Once a mid-reliever heads in the wrong direction, his options are: long man (doesn't seem to be viable for Breslow), minor leaguer or retire. It may be 1-2 years before Breslow hits that point, but as Parcells used to say: It's better to get rid of them a year early than a year late. Another way to look at it: In the 6th inning of a tie game, who would you rather have in there - Breslow, De La Rosa, Workman or Doubront? Breslow would be #4 on my list.
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Post by johnsilver52 on Jun 17, 2014 6:18:20 GMT -5
I'm not a huge Breslow fan either really, was just pointing out that he's been solid throughout most of his career.
There really hasn't been any significant velocity drop for breslow that would indicate any problems.. Until this year.. That brings up my point again about him missing all of ST and possibly something still wrong with his shoulder? 2.5mph drop is pretty significant for over the winter.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 17, 2014 6:43:12 GMT -5
I'm not a huge Breslow fan either really, was just pointing out that he's been solid throughout most of his career. There really hasn't been any significant velocity drop for breslow that would indicate any problems.. Until this year.. That brings up my point again about him missing all of ST and possibly something still wrong with his shoulder? 2.5mph drop is pretty significant for over the winter. He is indeed down 2 mph from last year, when he was 90 in April and 92 in June -- this year he was 88 in April and is now up to 90. But his reduced effectiveness -- from excellent to so-so -- is also, in part, caused by facing too many hitters who have seen him already. He's spent his career feasting on guys who have seen him 0 or 1 times, so a change of scenery would help. (This may well be the reason the A's were willing to trade him to us in the first place; he seems to have a shelf life of just a few years in a given division.) If you don't want to send down RDLR or Workman, then two people need to be moved once everyone is healthy. Of the relief crew, Breslow has the least impressive rest-of-reason projections and is someone who NL teams might well take a flyer on.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 17, 2014 8:00:22 GMT -5
In the short term, it looks like Buchholz will be making at least one more start for the PawSox, while Workman might be suspended during the A's series, in which case Doubront would presumably start against them.
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Post by jmei on Jun 17, 2014 8:07:13 GMT -5
One issue with Workman's suspension-- they don't get an extra roster spot while he's suspended, so to add Doubront to the 25-man roster, they'd need to option someone down (or DL someone). The most likely options are to option Herrera and play with three bench players for a little bit or to option RDLR and have Workman take over Rubby's spot in the rotation when he returns. It could also force their hand in terms of DFAing one of the bullpen arms, but it might still be too early in the season for that.
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 17, 2014 8:14:05 GMT -5
SIERA update after Rubby's start yesterday:
1. RDLR 3.08 2. Lester 3.09 3. Lackey 3.38 4. Peavy 4.36 5. Workman 4.37 6. Buchholz 4.69 7. Doubront 4.80
Re: Roster during Workman's suspension, I would option Herrera or DFA Mujica. It's not like anyone is seriously going to claim Mujica and his salary on waivers at this point, and then you could give him some time to figure it out in Pawtucket.
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Post by ctfisher on Jun 17, 2014 8:56:38 GMT -5
I pretty much called the OF situation this year in the offseason. We didn't address it because Ben wouldn't part with Carp. And Sizemore pushing first JBJ and second Nava to the minors instead of reshaping the OF completely is basically the major reason why we are where we are. We should not have relied on JBJ 100% without a real backup plan. We should not have relied on Victorino to remain healthy without a real backup plan. And here we are. The plan was Sizemore, Nava, Gomes and Carp, while giving up on the best of the 4 earliest. Obviously that was the only big trade, you're talking about trading "depth" guys. It's not like they're going to bring back much return, that's why they're bench players. Personally, I thought before the season that having sizemore and victorino around would let them ease bradley in, along with carp gomes and nava around to play the corners when necessary. Given the way sizemore played in spring training, it wasn't unreasonable. Carp and sizemore have given us nothing, nava wasn't hitting half his weight in april, and victorino has played like 8 games all year, so the outfield has been terrible so far, but only victorino's injuries were easily foreseeable, and even then, the sox appeared to have the depth to deal with that. Also, what are you talking about with sizemore forcing JBJ to the minors? Pretty sure he's spent all year on the major league team
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Post by mgoetze on Jun 17, 2014 9:31:41 GMT -5
Also, what are you talking about with sizemore forcing JBJ to the minors? He's talking about the first half hour of the season, before Victorino got injured.
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