SoxProspects News
|
|
|
|
Legal
Forum Ground Rules
The views expressed by the members of this Forum do not necessarily reflect the views of SoxProspects, LLC.
© 2003-2024 SoxProspects, LLC
|
|
|
|
|
Forum Home | Search | My Profile | Messages | Members | Help |
Welcome Guest. Please Login or Register.
2014-15 offseason discussion
|
Post by raftsox on Jun 19, 2014 8:31:54 GMT -5
Focusing on the pen: We have one of the best bullpens in baseball. It's cost is $20.4m. We have Mujica signed for next year, an option on Breslow that I wouldn't expect the Sox to exercise and Tazawa arbitration eligible who will make somewhere near $2m+. Mujica 4.75 (4.75 next year) Uehara 4.25 Breslow 3.85 (4.0 club option w/ .1 buyout) Capuano 2.25 Badenhop 2.125 Miller 1.903 Tazawa 1.275 I would guess that the Sox will spend between 20 and $25m on their pen next year. Miller, Koji and Badenhop are likely to cost significantly more next year than this year. I can't see them not re-signing Koji; let's say at 2yrs, 12M total. Replace Breslow with Britton. Capuano could be re-signed or replaced easily at similar $. Miller may leave, but he probably would be ammenable to a Mujica-esque contract. Uehara - 6 Mujica - 4.75 Capuano (or replacement) - 2.5 Tazawa - 2 Britton - 0.5 Miller (or replacement) - 5 Other - 0.5 to 2 (Workman, for example) 21-23? Does that sound reasonable?
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 19, 2014 8:43:14 GMT -5
I doubt if Koji will be available for 6. Consider, for example, Papelbon is 13 and for a much longer contract than Koji will be looking for at age 39. There was an article a few days ago speculating that the Sox would offer him a QO which would be $14m.
|
|
|
Post by godot on Jun 19, 2014 8:49:05 GMT -5
They can probably afford it in terms of payroll but how wise is it to allocate more than that to a bullpen assuming a fixed budget ? LOL, That's a lot of ifs. Peter Gammons is my role model But seriously, fortunes change so fast ( and often not predictable) that it is had to take anything or anybody for granted. Also have no idea about their budget or limitations or what Henry is thinking. He obviously does not like the free agent market as it is and might be trying to influence it by taking the Sox out of it, leaving only a few big players who may be spent out. He is one clever dude.
|
|
|
Post by raftsox on Jun 19, 2014 8:53:57 GMT -5
I doubt if Koji will be available for 6. Consider, for example, Papelbon is 13 and for a much longer contract than Koji will be looking for at age 39. There was an article a few days ago speculating that the Sox would offer him a QO which would be $14m. I'd be surprised if they don't work something out for much more reasonable money than that. He's old and seemingly enjoys it in Boston.
|
|
|
Post by jmei on Jun 19, 2014 9:09:56 GMT -5
I doubt if Koji will be available for 6. Consider, for example, Papelbon is 13 and for a much longer contract than Koji will be looking for at age 39. There was an article a few days ago speculating that the Sox would offer him a QO which would be $14m. I'd be surprised if they don't work something out for much more reasonable money than that. He's old and seemingly enjoys it in Boston. Yeah, but $6m a year is literally less than half of what he'd get on the open market. Koji should get an eight-figure AAV, at the very least.
|
|
|
Post by mgoetze on Jun 19, 2014 9:10:36 GMT -5
Papelbon is 13 and for a much longer contract than Koji will be looking for at age 39. But there's only one Ruben Amaro Jr.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 19, 2014 9:33:05 GMT -5
I'd be surprised if they don't work something out for much more reasonable money than that. He's old and seemingly enjoys it in Boston. Yeah, but $6m a year is literally less than half of what he'd get on the open market. Koji should get an eight-figure AAV, at the very least. Agreed and the problem there is that Koji, Mujica and Tazawa are now somewhere north of $17m for just 3 bullpen pieces with 4 to go.
|
|
|
Post by raftsox on Jun 19, 2014 9:44:10 GMT -5
I'd be surprised if they don't work something out for much more reasonable money than that. He's old and seemingly enjoys it in Boston. Yeah, but $6m a year is literally less than half of what he'd get on the open market. Koji should get an eight-figure AAV, at the very least. Open market, yes. However, based off nothing concrete, I think they work out a below market deal; Koji just doesn't seem like the money grabbing type. Maybe as high as 10, but I'm thinking lower.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 19, 2014 9:51:05 GMT -5
I'd doubt that, less than $10m would be unfair to both the player's union and the Uehara family.
Putting bullpen expenditures into perspective, the Sox have one of the best bullpens in baseball yet, both Lester and Lackey have produced more WAR than the entire bullpen combined. (I'm guessing the same would hold true no matter what War you use), either way, it illustrates the point I'm trying to make on bullpen expenditures.
|
|
|
Post by jimed14 on Jun 19, 2014 9:52:57 GMT -5
So, what position will Holt stick to as a starter next year?
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 19, 2014 10:00:10 GMT -5
He's likely to replace Uehara.
|
|
|
Post by gregblossersbelly on Jun 19, 2014 10:13:21 GMT -5
So, what position will Holt stick to as a starter next year? Platoon with WMB at 3b? If he comes back to earth and/or Xander struggles at shortstop. Marrero could be ready at short. Xander back to 3rd. He's your super-sub.
|
|
|
Post by moonstone2 on Jun 19, 2014 15:34:53 GMT -5
I'd doubt that, less than $10m would be unfair to both the player's union and the Uehara family. Putting bullpen expenditures into perspective, the Sox have one of the best bullpens in baseball yet, both Lester and Lackey have produced more WAR than the entire bullpen combined. (I'm guessing the same would hold true no matter what War you use), either way, it illustrates the point I'm trying to make on bullpen expenditures. The WAR of a reliever is not a good way to analyze the value of a reliever. A reliever is the only type of player where the manager can pick and choose in which situations he performs. Hence a reliever might appear in more leveraged situations which could lower or raise his actual value above or below his WAR. No one is saying that even the best reliever is more valuable than a top starter or position player. But if you have a bunch of scrubs in your bullpen, you aren't going to do very well no matter how good the rest of the team is.
|
|
|
Post by ethanbein on Jun 19, 2014 15:59:57 GMT -5
I'd doubt that, less than $10m would be unfair to both the player's union and the Uehara family. Putting bullpen expenditures into perspective, the Sox have one of the best bullpens in baseball yet, both Lester and Lackey have produced more WAR than the entire bullpen combined. (I'm guessing the same would hold true no matter what War you use), either way, it illustrates the point I'm trying to make on bullpen expenditures. The WAR of a reliever is not a good way to analyze the value of a reliever. A reliever is the only type of player where the manager can pick and choose in which situations he performs. Hence a reliever might appear in more leveraged situations which could lower or raise his actual value above or below his WAR.No one is saying that even the best reliever is more valuable than a top starter or position player. But if you have a bunch of scrubs in your bullpen, you aren't going to do very well no matter how good the rest of the team is. WAR already accounts for leverage. The truth is that relievers just don't throw that many innings and are a dime a dozen, generally. I would love to resign Koji and Miller, but it's probably just not worth it at market prices. $10m for just 2015 for Koji, maybe. But a 2-year deal for over $20m for a 40 year old closer? No thanks.
|
|
|
Post by chavopepe2 on Jun 19, 2014 18:24:35 GMT -5
The Sox have tremendous financial flexibility starting next year. I'd bring Uehara back on just about any 1 year deal including extending him a qualifying offer.
|
|
|
Post by suttree on Jun 19, 2014 18:38:15 GMT -5
I'm not a fan of the QO hostage system. We should just sign Uehara if we are going to sign him.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 20, 2014 4:26:55 GMT -5
Different topic, the outfield. I'm a proponent of going the trade route mainly because I don't see any free agents that interest me as much as potential trades. Here's my order of preference:
1. McCutchen, but even though the rumors will fly, it's a year earlier than he's likely to be traded. 2. Cargo. He's likely to be traded because the combined step up of salaries for him and Tulo is $10m, a figure the Rockies are unlikely to meet. He fits my ideal mold of a well rounded player. His career WAR/150 is about 4. One major advantage is risk. He only has three years remaining on his contract at $53m. 3. Heyward. He's had some injury issues but all non-recurring, inflammation in his rotator cuff in 2011, HBP fractured jaw and appendicitis in 2013. He's also a well rounded player and a career 4.775 WAR/150 player AT AGES 20-24. I'd only trade if he pre-agreed to a long extension, Boras is not his agent but he won't be as cheap as Cargo and will be longer term. 4. Stanton. I'm not overly enamored with Wasmike Stanton because I think he's too one dimensional, however, he's better than anything else remaining in trade or free agent markets.
I wouldn't touch Kemp or Ethier with your ten foot pole.
That would leave us with an outfield of trade player in RF / JBJ & Victorino in CF plus backing up other fields and Betts or Pedroia (I know, but it would reduce his constant minor injuries) in LF with a lot of candidates as 5th outfielder/backup somethingorother.
|
|
|
Post by jdb on Jun 20, 2014 7:41:08 GMT -5
Cargo's home/road splits are awful. Not sure he is a type that will remain an elite player outside of Coors. I don't think he's the hitter Holliday was.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 20, 2014 9:40:35 GMT -5
Cargo's home/road splits are awful. Not sure he is a type that will remain an elite player outside of Coors. I don't think he's the hitter Holliday was. He's also not $120m. WAR takes park factors into account.
|
|
|
Post by raftsox on Jun 20, 2014 12:19:32 GMT -5
Different topic, the outfield. I'm a proponent of going the trade route mainly because I don't see any free agents that interest me as much as potential trades. Here's my order of preference: 1. McCutchen, but even though the rumors will fly, it's a year earlier than he's likely to be traded. Cutch ain't getting traded. (from Cot's) Andrew McCutchen cf 6 years/$51.5M (2012-17), plus 2018 option ?6 years/$51.5M (2012-17), plus 2018 club option ?signed extension with Pittsburgh 3/6/12 ?$1.25M signing bonus (paid within 30 days of MLB approval) ?12:$0.5M, 13:$4.5M, 14:$7.25M, 15:$10M, 16:$13M, 17:$14M, 18:$14.5M club option ($1M buyout) The Pirates are a perennial contender going forward and McCutchen's signed to a very reasonable contract.
|
|
|
Post by suttree on Jun 20, 2014 12:23:12 GMT -5
Yeah, after Trout, McCutchen is probably the least likely to be traded of any player.
|
|
|
Post by moonstone2 on Jun 20, 2014 15:15:01 GMT -5
The WAR of a reliever is not a good way to analyze the value of a reliever. A reliever is the only type of player where the manager can pick and choose in which situations he performs. Hence a reliever might appear in more leveraged situations which could lower or raise his actual value above or below his WAR.No one is saying that even the best reliever is more valuable than a top starter or position player. But if you have a bunch of scrubs in your bullpen, you aren't going to do very well no matter how good the rest of the team is. WAR already accounts for leverage. The truth is that relievers just don't throw that many innings and are a dime a dozen, generally. I would love to resign Koji and Miller, but it's probably just not worth it at market prices. $10m for just 2015 for Koji, maybe. But a 2-year deal for over $20m for a 40 year old closer? No thanks. As far as I know WAR is based on FIP and innings pitched. WPA is based upon leverage. Relievers are much less valuable than starters but anyone who says that they are a "dime a dozen", has never watched a team with a bad bullpen. If you have a bad bullpen you can't win. The sabermetric idea that relievers are a "dime a dozen" and hence you can throw together a good bullpen with a bunch of guys off the street is disproven year after year.
|
|
ericmvan
Veteran
Supposed to be working on something more important
Posts: 8,923
|
Post by ericmvan on Jun 20, 2014 15:35:31 GMT -5
WAR already accounts for leverage. The truth is that relievers just don't throw that many innings and are a dime a dozen, generally. I would love to resign Koji and Miller, but it's probably just not worth it at market prices. $10m for just 2015 for Koji, maybe. But a 2-year deal for over $20m for a 40 year old closer? No thanks. As far as I know WAR is based on FIP and innings pitched. WPA is based upon leverage. You're talking about the useless and idiotic fWAR for pitchers. bWAR factors in reliever leverage, attempts to estimate true BABIP allowed, and makes every other sort of adjustment that's logical.
|
|
|
Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 20, 2014 15:40:36 GMT -5
Different topic, the outfield. I'm a proponent of going the trade route mainly because I don't see any free agents that interest me as much as potential trades. Here's my order of preference: 1. McCutchen, but even though the rumors will fly, it's a year earlier than he's likely to be traded. Cutch ain't getting traded. (from Cot's) Andrew McCutchen cf 6 years/$51.5M (2012-17), plus 2018 option ?6 years/$51.5M (2012-17), plus 2018 club option ?signed extension with Pittsburgh 3/6/12 ?$1.25M signing bonus (paid within 30 days of MLB approval) ?12:$0.5M, 13:$4.5M, 14:$7.25M, 15:$10M, 16:$13M, 17:$14M, 18:$14.5M club option ($1M buyout) The Pirates are a perennial contender going forward and McCutchen's signed to a very reasonable contract. WOW, my bad, I though he was headed to his last two years, not sure where I got that. Scratch that. Move the other three up a peg. Hmmm, they have 3 decent outfielders tied up and three outfielders in their top 10 including Austin Meadows and Josh Bell. 2016 anyone ?
|
|
|
Post by ethanbein on Jun 20, 2014 15:41:16 GMT -5
WAR already accounts for leverage. The truth is that relievers just don't throw that many innings and are a dime a dozen, generally. I would love to resign Koji and Miller, but it's probably just not worth it at market prices. $10m for just 2015 for Koji, maybe. But a 2-year deal for over $20m for a 40 year old closer? No thanks. As far as I know WAR is based on FIP and innings pitched. WPA is based upon leverage. Relievers are much less valuable than starters but anyone who says that they are a "dime a dozen", has never watched a team with a bad bullpen. If you have a bad bullpen you can't win. The sabermetric idea that relievers are a "dime a dozen" and hence you can throw together a good bullpen with a bunch of guys off the street is disproven year after year. I couldn't find the original article that talks about how leverage is put into WAR, but here's one that talks about it a little bit www.fangraphs.com/blogs/war-and-relievers/I do agree that the best bullpens vs the worst bullpens do make a big difference over the course of a season. The best way to see this is with WPA. In 2013, the best bullpen (Pirates) was worth about 9 WPA, while the worst (Astros) was worth about -7. The difference between the best and the worst in WAR was a little smaller, about 8 (Rangers) to about -5 (Astros). Either way, a good chunk of that difference is just due to random variation because relievers pitch so few innings. The projected spread in 2014 bullpen war between the best and the worst bullpens was about 5-6 wins. Bullpens matter, but it's hard to see who is going to be valuable ahead of time. Koji, Miller, and Tazawa are all pretty special relievers who are worthy of reasonable contracts, but I highly doubt the Red Sox couldn't find some pitchers in their system to replace anyone else. ADD: I don't wanna get into this argument, but since I've seen this posted several times here, I'll just leave this link that gives the reasoning for fWAR using FIP (it does adjust for leverage, as I talked about above). www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-our-pitcher-war-uses-fip/www.fangraphs.com/blogs/why-our-pitcher-war-uses-fip-part-two/
|
|
|