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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by raftsox on Jun 20, 2014 17:59:12 GMT -5
As far as I know WAR is based on FIP and innings pitched. WPA is based upon leverage. You're talking about the useless and idiotic fWAR for pitchers. bWAR factors in reliever leverage, attempts to estimate true BABIP allowed, and makes every other sort of adjustment that's logical. Is the difference fangraphs or b-r?
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 21, 2014 1:37:07 GMT -5
I can't remember a year where there was so much legitimate uncertainty about next year's roster at this point in the season. A quick rundown:
Starting pitching. Lester, if re-signed, projects, over the course of his contract, as a top-tier # 3 / borderline #2 starter, essentially a notch down from where he is now. So the development of RDLR, Ranaudo, Webster, and Barnes -- all the potential pitchers of that caliber (Owens looks very likely, while Workman, Wright, and Johnson don't have that upside) -- will go a long way to determining the wisdom of re-signing Lester. You can imagine scenarios where it looks like re-signing Lester would simply be paying $xxM a year and bypassing a draft pick in order to replace a kid every bit as good, and other scenarios in which it seems likely that we would really wish we had a pitcher of his caliber three years from now. Much more likely scenario: still a tough decision.
The key thing for 2015 if we're to let Lester walk will be Buchholz bouncng back and a kid (most likely RDLR) pitching great, so that the two of them plus Lackey seems like a pennant-winning top of the rotation for next year.
Bullpen: Always in flux, more so with the multiple free agents. A factor will be how many available guys they have their eyes on as next year's Badenhop.
CF: Seems almost certain to be Betts or Bradley, but which one? If Betts, Bradley is probably your 4th OFer, playing a lot of RF versus tough RHP, especially in Fenway. However ...
Corner OF: Making Nava the 4th outfielder and backup 1B, and obtaining a potent LF bat seems like an easy call. But whether you go into next year with Victorino as the starting RF is completely unclear. There's a scenario where you also acquire a RF, and move Victorino into a combination of backup CF and Gomes' platoon role. That would rule out keeping Bradley as the 4th OFer, so he would presumably be dealt in a trade to acquire a corner guy.
C. It's too soon to assume that Vazquez will be just the backup; a strong second half at the plate from him, and you're looking to acquire a Ross type rather than Carlos Ruiz or a facsimile thereof.
3B. It could well be Betts if Bradley grabs CF; the more I read from scouts the more it seems he'd have the arm strength to play the position. If Betts is in CF, there are multiple possibilities. It could obviously still be Middlebrooks. It could be an adequate Holt / Middlebrooks platoon, or (with a big second-half blossoming) Cecchini (there doesn't seem to be roster space for a Cecchini / WMB platoon). It could be a player acquired from outside the organization. It will be better than Wilton Veras and Manny Alexander, but we really have no guess as to who it will be.
So, some key performances to track, in rough order of impact:
Bradley (determines CF and impacts 3B), Victorino, Buchholz and De La Rosa, Middlebrooks, the top 3 PawSox starters; (second tier) Vazquez, Cecchini.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 21, 2014 4:17:31 GMT -5
You are also ruling out the possibility that Marerro is the shortstop and Xander the third baseman. I know, how adamant you are about keeping Xander at SS but it might be our best alternative.
I seem to remember a time when moving Xander to third was clearly the best alternative available and we spent $10m to do just that.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 21, 2014 6:58:20 GMT -5
You are also ruling out the possibility that Marerro is the shortstop and Xander the third baseman. I know, how adamant you are about keeping Xander at SS but it might be our best alternative. I seem to remember a time when moving Xander to third was clearly the best alternative available and we spent $10m to do just that. In 2016, Marrero at SS and Xander at 3B is a possibility. But as solid a year as Marrero is having, it's not a year where you jump AAA to get to the show. It translates right now to about a .230 EqA / TAv, which is to say nominal replacement level. He has a .327 OBP against RHP; jump him two levels in a year and they'd eat him alive.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 21, 2014 10:14:16 GMT -5
You are also ruling out the possibility that Marerro is the shortstop and Xander the third baseman. I know, how adamant you are about keeping Xander at SS but it might be our best alternative. I seem to remember a time when moving Xander to third was clearly the best alternative available and we spent $10m to do just that. In 2016, Marrero at SS and Xander at 3B is a possibility. But as solid a year as Marrero is having, it's not a year where you jump AAA to get to the show. It translates right now to about a .230 EqA / TAv, which is to say nominal replacement level. He has a .327 OBP against RHP; jump him two levels in a year and they'd eat him alive. Two thoughts. He jammed his wrist a few weeks back tried playing a game, missed a few games then came back for about 40 plate appearances where everything fell apart (something like 3 hits 12 Ks). Remove those and you have a different season. Visual but nothing concrete. I've been particularly impressed with the rate of improvement in his ABs. He's getting better every week. I'm guessing his second have EqA will be a lot better than his first half. I'll grant though that I tend to be slanted towards second half stats. I'm expecting a slight increase in walks, a big decrease in strikeouts and a decent increase in XBH. His glove is certainly pretty much a finished product.
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Post by Chris Hatfield on Jun 21, 2014 13:14:15 GMT -5
I would be positively stunned if Marrero were the starting SS on opening day next year. Nothing I saw personally or have heard from scouts makes it seem like he's ready at the plate for the bigs.
Maybe mid-2015, but opening day is aggressive.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 22, 2014 0:01:01 GMT -5
April service time day, LOL. I kind of view it as a competition between Middlebrooks, Cecchini and Marrero.
Different topic:
We all know this isn't likely to happen but I found the phrasing of this reply to be interesting:
Mike (OH) Much talk lately about possible destinations for David Price. What teams have the goods to pry him away from Tampa?
Klaw (1:49 PM) Dodgers. Cards if they wanted to, which I doubt. Royals might be able to. Red Sox certainly could.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 22, 2014 0:09:09 GMT -5
April service time day, LOL. I kind of view it as a competition between Middlebrooks, Cecchini and Marrero. Different topic: We all know this isn't likely to happen but I found the phrasing of this reply to be interesting: Mike (OH) Much talk lately about possible destinations for David Price. What teams have the goods to pry him away from Tampa? Klaw (1:49 PM) Dodgers. Cards if they wanted to, which I doubt. Royals might be able to. Red Sox certainly could. Someone asked a trade question in a chat (at BA?) and the first reply was more or less "The Red Sox have the pieces to get anyone they want. Well, within reason -- the Dodgers are not trading Clayton Kershaw, obviously." However, I think that if you consider Betts, Owens, and Swihart off limits, that's no longer true.
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Post by philsbosoxfan on Jun 22, 2014 0:39:35 GMT -5
The however is relative to what you are trading for.
I think that's the case as well and when you add in our financial situation, nobody is close to the position we are in. Of those three, the most irreplaceable in my mind is Swihart.
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Post by jdb on Jun 22, 2014 9:24:03 GMT -5
Well it looks like Cecchini is getting reps in LF now. Lots to think about here. Does this mean the front office thinks Xander is a 3B going forward or do they just think Cecchini could help the big club in LF this year?
Looking at next season could Cecchini be a serviceable backup RF? If he could play the corners in the OF and Infield that would be great. Also with Victorino having a setback does any think we should pencil him in at RF next year or do we trade depth to get that RF and have Vic as the 4th OF that plays a good bit more than your typical 4th guy?
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danr
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Post by danr on Jun 22, 2014 10:14:03 GMT -5
Cecchini isn't exactly tearing up AAA and he hasn't shown any power at all. He has to show a lot more to be a serious candidate for an OF position with the Sox - or any position for that matter. The Sox need some good hitters and the only one at Pawtucket is Betts.
Also, I don't think using the best prospects to acquire a pitcher, even Price, would be very smart. The Sox have terrific pitching prospects. They do not have very many higher level good hitting prospects. The Sox need a lineup makeover. They need several position players. They aren't going to sign free agents for those positions and they aren't going to be able to trade for many of them. They need the talent they have right now in players like Betts and Swihart.
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Post by larrycook on Jun 22, 2014 10:39:06 GMT -5
I can't remember a year where there was so much legitimate uncertainty about next year's roster at this point in the season. A quick rundown: Starting pitching. Lester, if re-signed, projects, over the course of his contract, as a top-tier # 3 / borderline #2 starter, essentially a notch down from where he is now. So the development of RDLR, Ranaudo, Webster, and Barnes -- all the potential pitchers of that caliber (Owens looks very likely, while Workman, Wright, and Johnson don't have that upside) -- will go a long way to determining the wisdom of re-signing Lester. You can imagine scenarios where it looks like re-signing Lester would simply be paying $xxM a year and bypassing a draft pick in order to replace a kid every bit as good, and other scenarios in which it seems likely that we would really wish we had a pitcher of his caliber three years from now. Much more likely scenario: still a tough decision. The starting pitching for next season starts with what does Cherrington do with Lester. I see four choices: 1.) Let him pitch out the rest of this year and resign him in the offseason. 2.) Let him pitch out the rest of this year and take the draft pick when another team resigns him in the offseason. 3.) Trade him before July 31st and resign him in the offseason. 4.) Trade him before July 31st and get nothing when he signs with another team. On the one hand if Lester pitches out the rest of this year, we will probably be in position to win every game he starts and an extra draft pick in the 30's June 2015. On the other hand, if we trade Lester, we get whatever value we can for him now and the opportunity for the youngsters to audition for 2015 starting jobs the rest of this year. I think the Sox will work something out with Lackey. I feel good that between Rubby, Workman, Doubront, Webster and eventually even Johnson, Barnes or Owens (around late June or July), we can find five good rotation arms for next season. I do think Buchholz has a giddyup in his shoulder and can't slot his arm and come over the top anymore. If it is a tear or swelling the usual result of both is surgery. However if Buchholz is healthy, then we can add him to the list and if he throws like he did in early 2013, then we have a #1 starter. Way too many "if"s for my liking. Now Cherrington needs to rebuild the bullpen, a yearly task regardless, and figured out how to enhance the offense and get some life injected into a stale group of veteran position players.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jun 23, 2014 13:45:18 GMT -5
I'm of the belief that the Red Sox should resign Lester, but I am also of the belief that the Red Sox already know the number they need to hit to resign him, and with that being true they already know if they will resign him or not. The only reason to let Lester walk for a pick would be if we are in contention, which we should determine in 2 weeks.... But it's not looking good.
I'd consider trading Lackey too depending on the return. No Webster cannot step in and replace Lackey 1:1, but I would take that gamble if it got us an outfielder that can ops over .600. I'd have no problem going with a 2015 rotation of RDLR, Workman, Webster, Doubrount, and Buchholz, IF we addressed some of our hitting weakness. We also would have Barnes, Ranaudo, Owens, and possibly Johnson available for call ups. We built this farm system it is time to live or die by the youth.
The left side of the infield has to be settled internally with some combination of Xander, Middlebrooks, Holt, Cecchini, Betts, or Marrerro. Unless you want to dish out a big contract to an inconsistent player like Han-Ram, Sandoval, or Headley. Nava needs a RH platoon partner and LF should be productive. Not much you can do with the Victorino in RF situation, I think you just have to play him, and no idea what to do in CF, but Lester for Pederson would make sense. For catchers Martin might make a lot of sense, as I don't think the Pirates will give him a QO. I'd also think it would be interesting if we can make a trade this year to get Wieter's last year of control.
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Post by oilcansman on Jun 23, 2014 14:10:46 GMT -5
The key to getting ready for '15 is to admit this team shows no signs of going anywhere this year. Once the admission is made, Sox need to admit signing Uehara and Lackey to extension is probably not wise. Both could be a major factor in race this year for another team. Lackey and Uehara would go a long way to solving Sox lack of outfield prospects.
As for pierzynski and peavy, neither have much value.
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Post by moonstone2 on Jun 23, 2014 17:57:49 GMT -5
Ethan when you attempt.to post.a link.backing up your argument it might be a good idea to read that link.first. It.doesn't say that leverage is counted in WAR it just gives a pitiful argument as to why it isn't relevant.
This is a perfect example of people who have never watched a baseball game in their lives taking a good idea too far. It is absolutely true that relievers are often overvalued. But that doesn't mean.they are worth as little as fangraphs claims.
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Post by jmei on Jun 23, 2014 18:06:39 GMT -5
From the link posted above:You might think that fWAR should factor in leverage more than it does, but it definitely does take leverage into account in a fairly significant way when it calculates reliever fWAR. Indeed, rWAR does the exact same thing that Fangraphs does-- in calculating reliever rWAR, Baseball-Reference averages a reliever's leverage with 1.00 to account for chaining.
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ericmvan
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Post by ericmvan on Jun 24, 2014 16:00:30 GMT -5
From the link posted above:You might think that fWAR should factor in leverage more than it does, but it definitely does take leverage into account in a fairly significant way when it calculates reliever fWAR. Indeed, rWAR does the exact same thing that Fangraphs does-- in calculating reliever rWAR, Baseball-Reference averages a reliever's leverage with 1.00 to account for chaining. So, if a closer comes in with his team up a run and men on 1st and 2nd and 1 out, and he fans a guy and then gives up a rocket line drive off the right-center field wall for a walk-off 2B, his fWAR improves significantly thanks to his -2.80 FIP for the game, but if he comes in with the bases full and nobody out and gets three straight guys to foul out, then he may well lose fWAR (based on 3.20 FIP for the game). Sure, that makes sense.
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Post by jmei on Jun 24, 2014 16:06:40 GMT -5
That's a criticism of FIP, not a criticism of how fWAR values relievers. And that's a discussion that's been done to death both here and elsewhere, and one best avoided.
At any rate, let's move on.
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Post by jmei on Jul 8, 2014 12:12:45 GMT -5
I'm pretty on board with trading him if there were an adequate offer. With the way the roster is setup, it's pretty hard seeing this team contend in the near future given that our "stars" (Papi, Pedroia, Napoli) are on the decline and our (hopefully) future stars (Bogaerts, Betts, Owens, Swihart) + future above average players (JBJ, whichever pitchers) are 2-5 years away from their prime. We have almost nothing in the middle, on the front end of their prime years other than maybe Holt. We should know a lot more about Workman and RDLR than we know now given that they're not far from their peaks (physically). I think the above is excessive pessimism about the state of the team in 2015. The main problem with this year's offense is that they've given a lot of at-bats to guys who have hit terribly. They've gotten 1544 PAs from guys with a sub-80 wRC+ (in order of PAs: Bradley, Pierzynski, Sizemore, Nava, Ross, Herrera, Victorino, Drew, Middlebrooks, Carp, Roberts, Betts). That's roughly 45% of the team's total plate appearances to guys who have hit at a sub-replacement-level this year. We can reasonably expect some those guys to hit better next year (Bradley, Nava, Victorino, Middlebrooks) and others to be off the team (Pierzynski, Sizemore, Drew, Roberts; maybe Ross and Herrera). It's like how the 2012 offense was dragged down by giving lots of playing time to replacement-level guys, but hidden in there was still a strong core. Just replace some of the terrible hitters with league-average guys, and the offense instantly perks up. It doesn't really matter whether that core is declining or in their prime-- what matters is absolute production, and despite how poorly the team as a whole has hit this year, most of the core guys who you'd expect to be on the team next year are still pretty good hitters. For instance, Fangraphs' mixed Steamer/ZiPS projections still project the Red Sox to be the 6th best offense in the league going forward. Look at their projections by player, and you don't see a lot of implausible projected performances. Guys like Ortiz and Napoli and Pedroia are still really good hitters, while guys like Victorino and Bogaerts and Nava are fine complementary guys. This is not the Astros or the Padres-- teams that just lack position player talent. This is a talented team having a really bad year, where the only guy outperforming his projections is Brock Holt. Like the Red Sox in 2013 or the Blue Jays in 2014, a bounce-back year in 2015 is very likely, especially once they add to the core with promising young guys (Betts, Vazquez) and through trades/free agency. Punting next year right now is a really, really nearsighted thing to do.
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nomar
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Post by nomar on Jul 8, 2014 12:17:47 GMT -5
Pedroia is not a "really good hitter" anymore, and likely will never be again, but I agree with your premise. Once people improve to average and Bogaerts goes back to being above average, the offense will dramatically improve. And I believe that will be next season.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2014 12:30:05 GMT -5
I understand that, but Papi sure seems to be declining this year. The difference between this year and last is that last year, almost everyone was an above average hitter and Papi was an elite hitter. This year Papi has the 37th highest wRC+ in the ML as opposed to 8th last year.
Likewise, Pedroia is one of our "best" hitters this year with a wRC+ of 103(4th). Last year, that was good for 12th best.
There's a whole lot of improvement needed across the board. Some of it will be found through age and experience. Probably most of it. I think this truly is the bridge year(s) given that we have hardly any players in their prime years. Finding good players in their prime is almost impossible without mortgaging the future. So I think we're going to be in a similar position until our very young players get to their prime. At that point, Pedroia is going to be old, Ortiz will be retired.
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Post by jmei on Jul 8, 2014 12:50:21 GMT -5
I understand that, but Papi sure seems to be declining this year. The difference between this year and last is that last year, almost everyone was an above average hitter and Papi was an elite hitter. This year Papi has the 37th highest wRC+ in the ML as opposed to 8th last year. Likewise, Pedroia is one of our "best" hitters this year with a wRC+ of 103(4th). Last year, that was good for 12th best. There's a whole lot of improvement needed across the board. Some of it will be found through age and experience. Probably most of it. I think this truly is the bridge year(s) given that we have hardly any players in their prime years. Finding good players in their prime is almost impossible without mortgaging the future. So I think we're going to be in a similar position until our very young players get to their prime. Even if you accept that Ortiz and Pedroia are declining, they're still good hitters. Ortiz's current production (.359 wOBA) is not that far off from his projected production (.379), and the same is true with regards to Pedroia (.327/.341). A difference of 20 points of wOBA from two of your better hitters is not the difference between a contending team and a non-contender. These guys aren't going to collapse overnight, and they still represent solid building blocks going forward. You're right that the projected 2015 roster doesn't have a lot of age 26-28 guys, but that's hardly a prerequisite for contention. The 2013 model of "build a well-rounded team with lots of depth" is still very much in play. There's not a position on the field where I think the Red Sox can't plug at least a fringe-average starter (read: 1.5+ win guy) next year. A lot of those guys have been hurt or underperforming this year (think Victorino and Middlebrooks in particular), but the odds are that they'll bounce back going forward. I mean, it's trendy to hate on guys like Bradley and Middlebrooks, but most organizations would kill to have young players like that who combined solid median projections with loads of upside.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2014 13:00:07 GMT -5
I'm not big on Victorino ever staying healthy, but I'm still hopeful on WMB. I guess my point should be that I'm trending towards my philosophy, not against everything that isn't in line. I guess my problem comes from being so hopeful for our top prospects (XB, JBJ, Owens, Swihart, Betts) that I don't want them blocked by anyone. I'm close to including Holt in that group. That doesn't leave a lot of positions to improve that aren't already taken by Papi, Napoli and Pedroia. And it's hard to improve these positions without giving up a bunch of prospects that I'm not willing to give up or giving out way too long of a contract to some guy on the wrong side of 30 (Ellsbury, Choo types).
Hopefully we can get lucky like we did with Napoli and Victorino the first time next year. It's certainly not easy to do.
Simple example - 2015 starting catcher. What will they do? Pretty hard to get a one year catcher that is a huge improvement and it's pretty hard to rely on Vazquez.
It's not something that can be solved in one year. Therefore I think we're more than one year away from contending because this kind of thing exists all over the roster.
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danr
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Post by danr on Jul 8, 2014 13:16:07 GMT -5
One of the reasons I want the Sox to re-sign Lester is that I agree with jmei on the potential of the team going forward. Even though the present team looks horrible, and, for the most part, is horrible, I think things are going to get better.
Bradley is looking better. His BA is rising slowly. He looks better at the plate. And his defense is other-worldly. Mookie really hasn't been given much of a chance, for reasons that totally elude me. He should be playing every day. Bogaerts is struggling but he will come out of it, and maybe in a big way - but maybe not until next year.
I don't have any hope for Victorino and not a whole lot for Middlebrooks. And the team might be better without them. Right now I think Holt should be at 3B and Bogaerts at SS. Marrero might be the SS next year, but they really should give Bogaerts a protracted period at the position before making that decision. Where Holt plays next year depends on how he finishes this year. The OF could be Bradley, Betts and Holt, but I hope they find a slugger somewhere.
In any case, this team has much of what it needs to bounce back next year, with maybe just a couple of key additions. Keeping Lester will keep the rotation solid.
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Post by jmei on Jul 8, 2014 13:25:52 GMT -5
I'm not big on Victorino ever staying healthy, but I'm still hopeful on WMB. I guess my point should be that I'm trending towards my philosophy, not against everything that isn't in line. I guess my problem comes from being so hopeful for our top prospects (XB, JBJ, Owens, Swihart, Betts) that I don't want them blocked by anyone. I'm close to including Holt in that group. That doesn't leave a lot of positions to improve that aren't already taken by Papi, Napoli and Pedroia. And it's hard to improve these positions without giving up a bunch of prospects that I'm not willing to give up or giving out way too long of a contract to some guy on the wrong side of 30 (Ellsbury, Choo types). Hopefully we can get lucky like we did with Napoli and Victorino the first time next year. It's certainly not easy to do. Simple example - 2015 starting catcher. What will they do? Pretty hard to get a one year catcher that is a huge improvement and it's pretty hard to rely on Vazquez. It's not something that can be solved in one year. Therefore I think we're more than one year away from contending because this kind of thing exists all over the roster. Just because you have a team of young players not yet in their prime doesn't mean they have no shot at contention and should punt the season. The error bars are extremely wide, wide enough that if you think your team projects to be better than .500, you're doing yourself a disservice by not trying to win that year. The devil is, as always, in the details-- can you improve the 2015 team enough without burdening future teams with depleted prospect depth or albatross contracts? That's the kind of difficult and nuanced question we need to consider when deciding whether the Red Sox should re-sign Lester or trade him. It's not as easy as saying "they have no players in their prime, no point in trying to contend," which is essentially what your first post suggested.
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