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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by jclmontana on Oct 20, 2014 15:30:02 GMT -5
I think it is pretty safe to say that if the Red Sox are bad again in 2015, Cespedes is going to be traded by the deadline. If the Sox are in playoff contention, and he is one of the three best outfielders, then yeah, he is with the team until the end of the year.
But, if Cespedes is with the team after opening day, and he is not clearly one of the three or four best outfielders, why not trade him? He doesn't offer positional flexibility, and, unless he is down right terrible, he will be worth something on the trade market. I guess I don't see him being a good soldier and accepting anything less than a starting role.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 20, 2014 15:37:15 GMT -5
The comp doesn't work into it in his case. Whether they trade him before or after the season starts, his value doesn't include that of any attached draft choice. There isn't any.
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Post by redsox4242 on Oct 20, 2014 16:47:08 GMT -5
I don't mind this, we better get something in return. From what Cespedes has said, he has a desire to hit Free Agency. Hilarious just as i said this now today he is represented by Jay Z. I see NO CHANCE Cespedes is in a Red Sox Uniform. Makes the return we got Lester look foolish. Cherington Blew this one! Wow.
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Post by WindyCityRedSox169 on Oct 20, 2014 16:57:14 GMT -5
I don't mind this, we better get something in return. From what Cespedes has said, he has a desire to hit Free Agency. Hilarious just as i said this now today he is represented by Jay Z. I see NO CHANCE Cespedes is in a Red Sox Uniform. Makes the return we got Lester look foolish. Cherington Blew this one! Wow. How does this make the return we got from Lester foolish? Do you think we somehow could have gotten one of the prized top prospects? Yes I am sure we got some prospect packages however there is very little/no chance that it included everyone's gems of Pederson/Seager/Urias or whatever fantasy trade proposals we had at the time. I am guessing the Cespedes return was viewed as a better return then the prospect packages that were offered. In the end as James said we had two months of Lester with no compensation attached for the trading team. With teams valuing their prospects higher than ever the idea of getting a top tier impact prospect was most likely not in the cards.
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Post by trotsdirtyhat on Oct 20, 2014 16:58:53 GMT -5
Let's pump the brakes on the foolish talk. I was just advocating for trading Cespedes (along with many others) before all of these breaking stories about his "bad fit," "bad attitude," and his new RocNation agent. Let's not pretend this changes things all that much. It doesn't make Cherington an idiot. Sure, maybe it dissuades teams who are trying to trade for Cespedes with the thought that they can give him an extension. There were people talking about a Cueto/Cespedes swap (which is another post in and of itself for it's improbability) and the argument that it won't happen is Cespedes only has 1 year left on his contract. No one after Cherington made his initial comments that they "envision him playing here for a long time" ever proposed a contract extension in Boston or for another team following a trade.
I think it's obvious that he will not be back after 2015 if (and it's a big if) he doesn't get traded this winter. I fail to see how Jay-Z changes this situation and makes Cherington look foolish. Cespedes still has good value this upcoming year. $10.5 mil for a 3-4 WAR player is excellent value. The Red Sox can either find a trade partner for that value or hold onto him.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 20, 2014 17:12:05 GMT -5
I don't mind this, we better get something in return. From what Cespedes has said, he has a desire to hit Free Agency. Hilarious just as i said this now today he is represented by Jay Z. I see NO CHANCE Cespedes is in a Red Sox Uniform. Makes the return we got Lester look foolish. Cherington Blew this one! Wow. Please give us your honest assessment of what they could have gotten for one month of Lester. Include some actual players, please. We need to find out what the team missed out on.
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Post by sibbysisti on Oct 20, 2014 17:46:16 GMT -5
I don't mind this, we better get something in return. From what Cespedes has said, he has a desire to hit Free Agency. Hilarious just as i said this now today he is represented by Jay Z. I see NO CHANCE Cespedes is in a Red Sox Uniform. Makes the return we got Lester look foolish. Cherington Blew this one! Wow. I hope this is said with a hint of sarcasm. The final chapter on this trade is not yet written. It all depends on the return on a possible Cespedes trade for the Red Sox. I agree that he is as good as gone, whether it be at the Winter Meetings or at the deadline. He has no Boston affiliation as he hasn't been here long enough to establish any ties. He'll go to the highest bidder when and if he hits free agency. I doubt that Boston fits that description. Maybe Chili Davis could influence his decision, but, if money talks, he walks. I'd like to see a Cueto in return. And, we need an impact outfielder, preferable LH, to replace him. Hello Jason Heyward. LF: Craig/Nava CF: Rusty RF: Heyward Doesn't solve the Betts dilemma, but that will work out somehow. He's too good to ignore.
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Post by jerrygarciaparra on Oct 20, 2014 19:22:17 GMT -5
I think it's fair to assume that he was their best offer, by their valuations, that they could get for Lester...so there is no real reason to criticize. However, I question the wisdom of his current valuation actually being public information. Unless their intention is to make him look bad...in the hopes of him actually being good....this should remain behind company walls.
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Post by redsox4242 on Oct 20, 2014 19:24:15 GMT -5
Hilarious just as i said this now today he is represented by Jay Z. I see NO CHANCE Cespedes is in a Red Sox Uniform. Makes the return we got Lester look foolish. Cherington Blew this one! Wow. Please give us your honest assessment of what they could have gotten for one month of Lester. Include some actual players, please. We need to find out what the team missed out on. We could of gotten some good prospects, thats for sure. Renato Nunez, for example would of been good return. My Point is, I don't like the trade if Cespedes is not here long term. Thats what we all thought, right? He would do damage here with the Green Monster! You don't trade a guy like Jon Lester unless you have team control for the next 6 years. thats my point.
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Post by WindyCityRedSox169 on Oct 20, 2014 19:41:49 GMT -5
Please give us your honest assessment of what they could have gotten for one month of Lester. Include some actual players, please. We need to find out what the team missed out on. We could of gotten some good prospects, thats for sure. Renato Nunez, for example would of been good return. My Point is, I don't like the trade if Cespedes is not here long term. Thats what we all thought, right? He would do damage here with the Green Monster! You don't trade a guy like Jon Lester unless you have team control for the next 6 years. thats my point. And we got a competitive draft selection that we will have team control for 6 years for.
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Post by redsox4242 on Oct 20, 2014 19:47:11 GMT -5
We could of gotten some good prospects, thats for sure. Renato Nunez, for example would of been good return. My Point is, I don't like the trade if Cespedes is not here long term. Thats what we all thought, right? He would do damage here with the Green Monster! You don't trade a guy like Jon Lester unless you have team control for the next 6 years. thats my point. And we got a competitive draft selection that we will have team control for 6 years for. Good point, but that is not enough for the type of pitcher Jon Lester is. I would of been content with Renato Nunez.
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Post by James Dunne on Oct 20, 2014 19:53:41 GMT -5
Was Renato Nunez available?
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Post by stevedillard on Oct 20, 2014 20:10:42 GMT -5
How does this make the return we got from Lester foolish? Do you think we somehow could have gotten one of the prized top prospects? Yes I am sure we got some prospect packages however there is very little/no chance that it included everyone's gems of Pederson/Seager/Urias or whatever fantasy trade proposals we had at the time. I am guessing the Cespedes return was viewed as a better return then the prospect packages that were offered. In the end as James said we had two months of Lester with no compensation attached for the trading team. With teams valuing their prospects higher than ever the idea of getting a top tier impact prospect was most likely not in the cards. I tend to agree that a Pederson/Seager may not have been in the works. But that doesn't mean we couldn't have gotten a valuable prospect. Look at what we got for Miller. It is clear that between the two options, the Sox valued a present player more valuable than a prospect. That quote doesn't say "all things being equal, this was the best offer." It says "with our preference to get MLBers who can help in 2015, this fit in with that preference." Implicit, in fact, explicit, in that was that there were some "attractive" prospect packages. Now that we appear to be ready to jettison Cespedes, its a simple question of (1) what Cespedes gets us this offseason vs. (2) the value of the prospect(s) chips that we would have gotten. With Cespedes down to one year an signaling that he won't re-sign, I can't help but feel his trade value is pretty low.
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Post by jmei on Oct 20, 2014 20:55:11 GMT -5
That quote doesn't say "all things being equal, this was the best offer." Every time a front office makes a move, they almost certainly thought it was the best move available. No front office purposefully takes the second- or third-best offer available. The operative question is whether their judgment was correct. I understand that that's a mostly semantic point, but it's an important one-- the front office might have made an error in judgment, but they had the good faith belief that this was the best offer available. I think it's a fair question to ask whether the front office's espoused desire to focus on short-term production over a potential prospect package was the right posture to strike. But because we don't know what offers were on the table, this ultimately seems like a pointless exercise-- it inevitably becomes a narcissistic projection of our existing feelings towards the front office (e.g., stevedillard is anti, I am pro). I also think it's still far too early to tell. Cespedes may or may not be traded, and we can only guess at what he'll return. Let's let the dust settle before passing judgment.
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Post by dcsoxfan on Oct 20, 2014 21:04:31 GMT -5
I wouldn't be surprised if the Red Sox let Cespedes walk at the end of the year.
The Red Sox basic strategy appears (at least to me) to be to take advantage of the fact that with two wild cards you don't have to be that good to play meaningful baseball in August and September (which is important to maintain the revenues needed to maintain the kind of payrolls Red Sox fans have grown accustomed to). If the Red Sox were to sign two mid rotation starters and a couple relievers (or maybe one of the big three starters, a middle rotation starter, and a couple relievers) they would be good enough to compete for a wild card AND hold on to their potential high impact young players/prospects (Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, Devers, Margot and maybe Owens and/or Rodriguez) thus competing in the short-term without jeopardizing their long-term outlook. One year of Cespedes would be quite consistent with that strategy.
Based upon 2013 and 2014, I would expect that this is the basic strategy they will employ in 2015, and personally, I think it's the right one. I think it's really, really hard to build a sustainable competitive baseball team without a core of young (cost-controlled) players.
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Post by FenwayFanatic on Oct 20, 2014 21:28:02 GMT -5
Eh, I think people's expectations are too high for what the Red Sox could do at the deadline. They traded two months of Lester for a year and two months of Cespedes, plus a quite-valuable draft choice. They got a buy-low outfielder and talented-but-flawed young pitcher for Lackey, and they got a borderline Top-50 prospect for Miller. I wasn't in love with the Lackey deal at the time for a variety of reasons that I don't feel we need to rehash, but overall I thought it was a good load of talent. The Red Sox biggest mistake at the deadline was probably not dealing Uehara. It seemed a little strange at the time, and given Koji's bad second half and the fact that I'd consider him unlikely to get a QO, hindsight has shown it to be the wrong move. Part of the "problem" though, if you want to call it that, is that most front offices around baseball have a) gotten smarter in general, and b) generally erred on the side of overvaluing their own prospects. That combination makes it really hard for a selling team to rip someone off. There are very few Teixeira-for-the-moon type deals like the Rangers pulled off years ago. I agree completely... I think koji would've been a target for Detroit and a few other teams.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 20, 2014 22:08:27 GMT -5
I wouldn't be surprised if the Red Sox let Cespedes walk at the end of the year. The Red Sox basic strategy appears (at least to me) to be to take advantage of the fact that with two wild cards you don't have to be that good to play meaningful baseball in August and September (which is important to maintain the revenues needed to maintain the kind of payrolls Red Sox fans have grown accustomed to). If the Red Sox were to sign two mid rotation starters and a couple relievers (or maybe one of the big three starters, a middle rotation starter, and a couple relievers) they would be good enough to compete for a wild card AND hold on to their potential high impact young players/prospects (Bogaerts, Betts, Swihart, Devers, Margot and maybe Owens and/or Rodriguez) thus competing in the short-term without jeopardizing their long-term outlook. One year of Cespedes would be quite consistent with that strategy. Based upon 2013 and 2014, I would expect that this is the basic strategy they will employ in 2015, and personally, I think it's the right one. I think it's really, really hard to build a sustainable competitive baseball team without a core of young (cost-controlled) players.That became crystal clear after the CBA was signed. What a lot of us expected has come to pass. There are fewer and fewer really good players in their prime hitting the streets. They're being taken off the market by front offices that can do simple risk/benefit calculations. They buy out the productive years at a probable discount while scrapping the pre-arb and arb portion, offering players a better guaranteed return on those early years. What if you don't have that much talent in your system? You have to be willing to overpay for the guys who do hit the streets, many of whom will be well past their prime as the longterm contracts play out. That, or you scout around for good players who may be undervalued, and who are willing to sign on for more money over the shorter term, which is what the Sox have done over the last few years. With the always clear-eyed view offered by 20-20 hindsight, it looks like SF slept-walked into that latter strategy. Either that or the GM had inside dope on what might be coming down in the agreement. Guys like Huff, Scutaro, Morse, Pence, Freddy Sanchez, Pat Burrell, Andres Torres, Angel Pagan, Bengie Molina, Melky Cabrera... the list goes on and on... have supplemented their younger players: Posey, Sandoval, Baumgardner, Lincecum, Belt and Matt Cain along with Crawford and now Panik. It's not as much of a fluke as it might seem to have they and KC in the Series. KC finally started walking the straight and narrow with their minor league talent. With the exception of Will Myers they held on to all of them, and after years of futility it paid off as they finally started to produce. Shields looks like a great acquisition given the timing of that development. That may not be the case as Myers starts rolling, which I expect him to do. But for KC, hindsight will never have them saying anything other than what a great trade it was. They're finally in the Series again.
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Oct 20, 2014 22:28:37 GMT -5
I've thought they would probably trade Cespedes since they signed Castillo but ROC Nation is Castillo's agent also. If Cespedes wanted to extend with the Redsox, ROC nation would be a pretty good agent option for that also wouldn't it? The people who just landed a long term contract with the Sox for a comparable OF.
I give the chances of Cespedes staying with the Sox at less than 50% but it sure doesn't help with all the rumor well poisoning; i.e. Cespedes doesn't want to play CF, Cespedes doesn't want to work on his defense, Cespedes wants to go all the way to FA,... Cespedes doesn't want to play RF now. I don't get all the rumors. He is getting body slammed in the press.
Is it the Redsox driving his market down? I sincerely doubt it but is Cespedes trying to drive his market down? That would seem even less likely. Who is the source of all these rumors?
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Post by buffs4444 on Oct 21, 2014 0:58:47 GMT -5
The final chapter on this trade is not yet written. It all depends on the return on a possible Cespedes trade for the Red Sox. And, we need an impact outfielder, preferable LH, to replace him. Hello Jason Heyward. This. Or something similar to it. Cespedes has never fit the profile. He's a B+ paper for a kid that needs an A. My reaction when the trade went down was that he would be packaged for Stanton over the winter. It may be "Big Mike" Stanton, Jason Heyward, or some other player....but it almost certainly will be someone. The cache of prospects will be leveraged with Cespedes to increase the return of a (most likely) young impact player ~2-3 years away from free agency. But at the same time.....Lester is coming back anyway, so it's an easy win for 2 months of Jon Lester's Playoff Vacation.
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Post by cologneredsox on Oct 21, 2014 2:15:40 GMT -5
The final chapter on this trade is not yet written. It all depends on the return on a possible Cespedes trade for the Red Sox. And, we need an impact outfielder, preferable LH, to replace him. Hello Jason Heyward. This. Or something similar to it. Cespedes has never fit the profile. He's a B+ paper for a kid that needs an A. My reaction when the trade went down was that he would be packaged for Stanton over the winter. It may be "Big Mike" Stanton, Jason Heyward, or some other player....but it almost certainly will be someone. The cache of prospects will be leveraged with Cespedes to increase the return of a (most likely) young impact player ~2-3 years away from free agency. But at the same time.....Lester is coming back anyway, so it's an easy win for 2 months of Jon Lester's Playoff Vacation. Could you explain what interest Miami has in a player who has one year left of his contract and is looking for a big raise after that? Actually, that's basically the main problem with him being used in every trade scenario I am thinking about. Which team wants cespedes only for a year?
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Post by jmei on Oct 21, 2014 6:53:50 GMT -5
This. Or something similar to it. Cespedes has never fit the profile. He's a B+ paper for a kid that needs an A. My reaction when the trade went down was that he would be packaged for Stanton over the winter. It may be "Big Mike" Stanton, Jason Heyward, or some other player....but it almost certainly will be someone. The cache of prospects will be leveraged with Cespedes to increase the return of a (most likely) young impact player ~2-3 years away from free agency. But at the same time.....Lester is coming back anyway, so it's an easy win for 2 months of Jon Lester's Playoff Vacation. Could you explain what interest Miami has in a player who has one year left of his contract and is looking for a big raise after that? Actually, that's basically the main problem with him being used in every trade scenario I am thinking about. Which team wants cespedes only for a year? Cespedes is unlikely to be the centerpiece of a cost-controlled stud for this very reason-- the one year of team control makes him less appealing for a rebuilding-type team (think Miami, Colorado, etc). But he's a very good player with some untapped potential who is underpaid to the tune of $10m or so, and has a good bit of trade value. He'd be very attractive for a contending team that is willing to move pitching and needs hitting-- think the Reds (Cueto, Latos, Leake) or maybe the Nationals (Zimmermann or Fister) or Mariners (Iwakuma). Most of those guys might require a package of Cespedes plus a few prospect or two, but he might be able to return a pretty good pitcher on a short-term deal.
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Post by iakovos11 on Oct 21, 2014 6:55:56 GMT -5
Actually, that's basically the main problem with him being used in every trade scenario I am thinking about. Which team wants cespedes only for a year? A team with a different player with one year remaining that would rather have a RHH OF'r? Cespedes + for Iwakuma Cespedes + for Cueto
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Post by sdiaz1 on Oct 21, 2014 7:37:37 GMT -5
If the Mariners played in a neutral park Cespedes for Iwakuma would make sense. However with Safeco being the very worst park for Right Handed Power hitters, I can't see them having much interest in Yoenis. He would be terrible there.
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Post by jdb on Oct 21, 2014 9:37:09 GMT -5
I don't know. You could argue that they have a few young SPs coming up to replace Iwakuma and that Cespedes is an upgrade to their current OF situation. Given that park they have to over pay for RH power on the FA market.
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Post by Oregon Norm on Oct 21, 2014 9:57:40 GMT -5
If the Mariners played in a neutral park Cespedes for Iwakuma would make sense. However with Safeco being the very worst park for Right Handed Power hitters, I can't see them having much interest in Yoenis. He would be terrible there. Two things here: they only play half their games in Safeco, and the guy does hit a lot of scorched liners. Those ricochet off the wall at Fenway, and a few of them would make it over the fence in Seattle. Regardless of how tough the park is for a right hander, they still need that power. Right now Mike Zunino is just about it.
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