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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by Gwell55 on Jul 21, 2014 13:33:54 GMT -5
Drew is going to get a multi-year deal without draft pick compensation. He isn't sticking around. More than likely with the way he is hitting he will either take a 1 yr make good contract or have to except a 3yr@ 4-5 per. His sitting out didn't make much of a difference to his hitting from late last year through the playoffs to this season it is appearing. I doubt Drew will take a 3/15 so he might just be a one year rental again.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 21, 2014 13:35:34 GMT -5
Drew is going to get a multi-year deal without draft pick compensation. He isn't sticking around. I would think Rollins will get more than a one year deal. He's not in a prove it situation like Beltre or Drew. He wants to make as much as he can guaranteed on what may be his last contract. Love the defense of Vazquez at C, Marrero at SS and JBJ in CF. With one caveat. We need plus offense then at 1B, LF and RF. Better have an idea how to replace Napoli and Victorino after next season.
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Post by michael on Jul 21, 2014 13:39:14 GMT -5
Wasn't the reason we got Herrera because we didn't really see Holt as able to handle SS more than just emergency situations? Couldn't think of a better word than emergency, maybe to say in <10 games started. I think it's because they didn't see a lot about Holt. And maybe moving a fungible LHRP who was deemed excess helped the decision.
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Post by suttree on Jul 21, 2014 13:40:23 GMT -5
Drew is going to get a multi-year deal without draft pick compensation. He isn't sticking around. I would think Rollins will get more than a one year deal. He's not in a prove it situation like Beltre or Drew. He wants to make as much as he can guaranteed on what may be his last contract. Love the defense of Vazquez at C, Marrero at SS and JBJ in CF. With one caveat. We need plus offense then at 1B, LF and RF. Better have an idea how to replace Napoli and Victorino after next season. Rollins isn't an FA, he has an option that is about to vest for $11MM.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 21, 2014 13:42:05 GMT -5
Trading for Rollins would be as dumb as signing Drew.
And I hope by now, thinking we can just trade guys like that is often impossible.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 21, 2014 14:09:07 GMT -5
Drew's market value now is less than it was before he signed with the Sox. Even with his glove, if he doesn't significantly improve his hitting, he won't be viewed as a regular by most teams. How much longer are the Sox going to stick with him?
Right now, I don't see him getting a multiyear deal from anyone.
I think the SS starting next year will be Marrero so long as he continues to hit well at Pawtucket. I don't think the Sox want an inferior, or even middling, fielding SS. If they did, Bogaerts would still be there. Holt is OK as a temporary, but I don't think he will be a regular unless Marrero doesn't make it.
If Marrero does make it, I don't know where Holt plays. A lot will depend on what happens with the OF with trades or FA signings.
I cannot imagine the Sox acquiring Rollins under any conditions.
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Post by suttree on Jul 21, 2014 14:50:52 GMT -5
Since June 29 Drew has a .333 OBP and a .752 OPS. After not getting a regular spring training and only having 109 PAs so far this year it's a little early to be prognosticating Drew's demise.
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Post by mgoetze on Jul 21, 2014 16:39:23 GMT -5
Wasn't the reason we got Herrera because we didn't really see Holt as able to handle SS more than just emergency situations? Couldn't think of a better word than emergency, maybe to say in <10 games started. If by "we" you mean "John Farrell", then yes.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 21, 2014 16:41:14 GMT -5
I think it's because they didn't see a lot about Holt. And maybe moving a fungible LHRP who was deemed excess helped the decision. It's more complete luck that WMB and Victorino got hurt.
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Post by larrycook on Jul 21, 2014 20:22:51 GMT -5
And maybe moving a fungible LHRP who was deemed excess helped the decision. It's more complete luck that WMB and Victorino got hurt. Is there anybody ekes at Pawtucket that just needs a chance in order to blossom? Hassan?
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 21, 2014 21:19:09 GMT -5
Wasn't the reason we got Herrera because we didn't really see Holt as able to handle SS more than just emergency situations? Couldn't think of a better word than emergency, maybe to say in <10 games started. If by "we" you mean "John Farrell", then yes. Sorry, in the future I'll try to make it clear that the members of this board are not actually making the decisions.
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Post by jdb on Jul 22, 2014 20:40:29 GMT -5
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Post by grandsalami on Jul 22, 2014 21:54:35 GMT -5
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Post by larrycook on Jul 22, 2014 22:45:40 GMT -5
For 2015, I am ok with Gomes and carp not coming back, as long as we can get a power left handed hitting left fielder and nava moves into the 4th outfielder role.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 29, 2014 15:59:10 GMT -5
Does this mean something for next year?
Rob Bradford ?@bradfo 32m
If Drew does get moved plan would be to move Bogaerts back to shortstop
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Post by okin15 on Jul 30, 2014 11:01:21 GMT -5
Does this mean something for next year? Rob Bradford ?@bradfo 32m If Drew does get moved plan would be to move Bogaerts back to shortstop That's fascinating. I like it, and I sure do hope it would mean something for next year. No reason he, WMB, Holt and Herrera (if needed) couldn't hold down the left side until we know more about Marrero, WMB, and Xander's defense. Certainly makes Bogaerts more valuable, and takes some pressure off of his bat... if he can field the position. He showed some flashes just before Drew came back.
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Post by stevedillard on Jul 31, 2014 8:57:10 GMT -5
So, Castillo in right, Bradley/Betts center, Cespedes in left. Xander at 3B, Marrero SS, Pedroia and Napoli/WMB Vasquez/Swihart
I see the start of a core. Trade Cespedes/WMB and/or Betts to Miami for Stanton, call it a day.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 31, 2014 9:35:30 GMT -5
So, Castillo in right, Bradley/Betts center, Cespedes in left. Xander at 3B, Marrero SS, Pedroia and Napoli/WMB Vasquez/Swihart I see the start of a core. Trade Cespedes/WMB and/or Betts to Miami for Stanton, call it a day. I'd much rather ship prospects to Miami then Cespedes- I love the idea of a Cespedes/Bradley/Stanton outfield, however unrealistic it might be. But I think the big thing to take away from the deal is that we're going for it next year- which means this offseason should be very interesting
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Post by stevedillard on Jul 31, 2014 9:50:06 GMT -5
Doubt Miami would do a Cespedes trade, but even if you hold Cespedes, he's a nice/necessary bridge for 2015. You have Stanton on the market after 2015, so you can either do the "trade" this offseason, or even if Miami doesnt want to do it (which they prob. don't) then we can "trade" Cespedes for Stanton after 2015 and wash the draft picks.
Basically, I think that 2015 is still part of the rebuild, waiting for Bogaerts and Bradley to find themselves, and Swihart/Betts/Owens to get more time in. This keeps them competitive, and if lightning strikes again and everything goes well, we could be better than competitive.
caveat: I thought 2013 would be a rebuild, and advocated trading Lester for Wil Myers after 2012.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 31, 2014 10:49:06 GMT -5
This team can be an instant 2015 competitor. I think this could be a interesting way. Really would be great to resign Lester, although I think the more likely outcome is we don't
IF they
Keep Lackey Resign Lester, 5-6 Years 24M+ per Resign Miller, possibly after a trade Sign Han Ram to play 3B, move Bogaerts back to SS QO Koji Move Workman to bullpen
Starting rotation
Lester Lackey Buchholz Del La Rosa Webester
Bullpen
Uehara Tazawa Miller Workman Hembree Additions
Lineup
2B Pedroia 3B Hanley DH Ortiz 1B Napoli LF Cespedes SS Bogaerts RF Victorino C Vazquez CF Bradley
Nava could become a LH platoon partner with Victorino. Holt and possibly Betts can serve as super utility
Just spitballing here, seems like if we can upgrade 1 of SS/3B we can live with the lineup in aggregate. Hanley was first to come to mind.
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Post by kman22 on Jul 31, 2014 11:11:33 GMT -5
This team can be an instant 2015 competitor. I think this could be a interesting way. Really would be great to resign Lester, although I think the more likely outcome is we don't IF they Keep Lackey Resign Lester, 5-6 Years 24M+ per Resign Miller, possibly after a trade Sign Han Ram to play 3B, move Bogaerts back to SS QO Koji Move Workman to bullpen Starting rotation Lester Lackey Buchholz Del La Rosa Webester Bullpen Uehara Tazawa Miller Workman Hembree Additions Lineup 2B Pedroia 3B Hanley DH Ortiz 1B Napoli LF Cespedes SS Bogaerts RF Victorino C Vazquez CF Bradley Nava could become a LH platoon partner with Victorino. Holt and possibly Betts can serve as super utility Just spitballing here, seems like if we can upgrade 1 of SS/3B we can live with the lineup in aggregate. Hanley was first to come to mind. How's that payroll going to work?
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 31, 2014 11:16:26 GMT -5
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Post by moonstone2 on Jul 31, 2014 11:28:14 GMT -5
I welcome responses to this post but let's keep it to a discussion about the Red Sox obvious strategy of acquiring players who will help next year and are less risky as opposed to players who might help a lot more in future years. Do you think it's a good strategy and why or why not? The "you don't know for sure" posts are really a waste of everyones time and don't move the conversation forward. It depends on whether we move Lackey and what we do with our money in the offseason, really. If we trade Lackey and remain unwilling to spend, then your stance is reasonable. On the other hand, if the front office decides to keep Lackey and then lands Lester and/or Scherzer or whoever else to bolster the rotation over the winter... You have to be excited about that, right? So in answer to your question... I like the strategy of focusing on next year as long as they don't half-ass it. I would have liked a vision for the future if they didn't half-ass it. Just show me a tangible, workable plan and a full commitment to that plan, and I'm content. I know some disagree with me but I think they are miscalculating how far away they really are. Baseball is not like basketball where through trades and free agency you can regularly turn a losing team into a winner through trades and free agent signings as the Celtics did in 2008. I know the Red Sox did that in 2013, but I think they are mistaken if they think they can do that again. 2013 was a set of very unique circumstances including. #1 A huge recovery from players who's value in 2012 was depressed due to injuries. I don't have access to fangraphs right now but I would imagine that the 2012-2013 WAR delta for Oritz, Ellsbury, and Lackey was massive. This team doesn't have a lot of players with short-term injuries like these three had. Victorino's problems look chronic, Pedroia's power has been declining for a few years now, Ortiz is going to be 38, and who knows about Buccholz. I just don't see the same WAR delta from players. #2 Mid-tier free agents who as a group did much better than expected. The Red Sox signed 7 free agents in the 12-13 off-season and you would have to argue that all at worst six of the seven, excluding Dempster worked out. They spent $57M to acquire a lot of talent. This year they won't have as much to spend and can't really expect to have that kind of return on a player. #3 John Lester stepped up in the second half of 2013 and became the big game pitcher that you need to make a serious playoff run. He's gone. Unless the Red Sox are serious contenders for the division not the wild card in 2015 this is a poor trade and representative of a poor strategy. If the Red Sox are giving up on possible future value to make a run at one more playoff game then shame on them. You do not give up value to go for the wild card. Such decisions come back to bite you.
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Post by jmei on Jul 31, 2014 11:57:30 GMT -5
#1 A huge recovery from players who's value in 2012 was depressed due to injuries. I don't have access to fangraphs right now but I would imagine that the 2012-2013 WAR delta for Oritz, Ellsbury, and Lackey was massive. This team doesn't have a lot of players with short-term injuries like these three had. Victorino's problems look chronic, Pedroia's power has been declining for a few years now, Ortiz is going to be 38, and who knows about Buccholz. I just don't see the same WAR delta from players. #2 Mid-tier free agents who as a group did much better than expected. The Red Sox signed 7 free agents in the 12-13 off-season and you would have to argue that all at worst six of the seven, excluding Dempster worked out. They spent $57M to acquire a lot of talent. This year they won't have as much to spend and can't really expect to have that kind of return on a player. Re: 1-- I disagree. In the offseason of 2012, guys like Ellsbury, Ortiz, Lackey, and even Lester were all every bit as much of a question mark as guys like Victorino and Pedroia are this year. Yes, if you take the pessimistic view on everyone, 2015 looks sunk. But the median projections are higher than you're suggesting here. Re: 2-- I actually think the Red Sox have more payroll available this year than they did after 2012.
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Post by jdb on Jul 31, 2014 12:48:59 GMT -5
So if you assume we keep everyone we just traded for how does our OF set up next year? Has to be Cespedes in RF,JBJ then Craig in LF with Vic as the 4th OFer? Where's that leave Mookie going forward?
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