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2014-15 offseason discussion
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 8, 2014 13:37:47 GMT -5
Well as I've said, and as we see this year, it's really difficult to improve the team without giving up too many prospects, burdening the team with too-long contracts AND not blocking the prospects that should play. And then we're also relying on production from those prospects.
It's not that we shouldn't try to contend. It's that we shouldn't assume that we will when making every deal.
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Post by Guidas on Jul 8, 2014 14:05:30 GMT -5
I'm not big on Victorino ever staying healthy, but I'm still hopeful on WMB. I guess my point should be that I'm trending towards my philosophy, not against everything that isn't in line. I guess my problem comes from being so hopeful for our top prospects (XB, JBJ, Owens, Swihart, Betts) that I don't want them blocked by anyone. I'm close to including Holt in that group. That doesn't leave a lot of positions to improve that aren't already taken by Papi, Napoli and Pedroia. And it's hard to improve these positions without giving up a bunch of prospects that I'm not willing to give up or giving out way too long of a contract to some guy on the wrong side of 30 (Ellsbury, Choo types). Hopefully we can get lucky like we did with Napoli and Victorino the first time next year. It's certainly not easy to do. Simple example - 2015 starting catcher. What will they do? Pretty hard to get a one year catcher that is a huge improvement and it's pretty hard to rely on Vazquez. It's not something that can be solved in one year. Therefore I think we're more than one year away from contending because this kind of thing exists all over the roster. Seconded. Swihart is probably not your starter until 2015, barring regression or injury but the catching market is just awful. They could get away with Vazquez if he can be around league average and bat him 9th. As much as I think Middlebrooks may bounce back if he can get healthy (and wear his friggin glasses!), if he does he will likely become trade bait in a package for an established power bat. I also think Xander belongs at 3rd or in Left and Marrero is a better SS option going forward in that he will likely give you league average SS at the plate and above average run prevention at the position, which would give you a tremendous up the middle defense (and hopefully average or slightly above average offense) in Vazquez/Swihart-Pedroia-Marrero-JBJ or Betts. I am also hopeful that Bradley's bat will come around. He has looked better and gotten on base more since switching back to his old stance. This D would allow for Lester and other pitchers to remain confident in being (or attempting to be) ground ball pitchers, as well - but not be worried about the fly balls staying in the park with JBJ and Betts/Victorino (and maybe Holt) in RF). Power becomes a concern beyond DH and 1st - though Xander should start to fill this gap, and a power LF could be acquired via trade depending on who they'd be willing to part with. Keeping Lester lets them use 1 or 2 more pitching prospects as trade bait as Ericmvan suggested. Lots of moving parts, but with prospects still being so highly valued by GMs and - even with deals - so much of the roster could be filled by MLB minimum or near minimum talent, there's room to pay Lester and one more very large ($15M-22M) salary and still have a good amount of wiggle room, esp after 2015.
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Post by suttree on Jul 8, 2014 14:05:34 GMT -5
I don't have any hope for Victorino and not a whole lot for Middlebrooks. And the team might be better without them. Right now I think Holt should be at 3B and Bogaerts at SS. Marrero might be the SS next year, but they really should give Bogaerts a protracted period at the position before making that decision. Where Holt plays next year depends on how he finishes this year. The OF could be Bradley, Betts and Holt, but I hope they find a slugger somewhere. In any case, this team has much of what it needs to bounce back next year, with maybe just a couple of key additions. Keeping Lester will keep the rotation solid. I have been thinking a lot about Marrero, and as much as I want a gold glove caliber SS it's hard to envision the Red Sox competing in 2015 if he took over. We pretty much have conceded catching duties to Vazquez next year, so along with JBJ that makes 3 defense first players going through growing pains at the plate. Maybe we could win as a small ball team but the pitching isn't "that" good. Then under the certainly plausible scenario that Betts has an underwhelming rookie year and Xander does not become a superstar in his second, we would be in trouble. We have too many young guys arriving at the same time and not enough healthy productive veterans to keep the ship on course.
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Post by jmei on Jul 8, 2014 14:52:34 GMT -5
Well as I've said, and as we see this year, it's really difficult to improve the team without giving up too many prospects, burdening the team with too-long contracts AND not blocking the prospects that should play. And then we're also relying on production from those prospects. It's not that we shouldn't try to contend. It's that we shouldn't assume that we will when making every deal. This has to vary on a case-by-case basis, though. You can't be a hardline zealot and say that they shouldn't make any move that blocks a prospect or adds long-term salary. There's a price at which it makes sense to re-sign Lester, even if it means taking up a spot in the rotation (that could go to a prospect) and tying up some unproductive salary four or five years down the line. Yes, there's a tricky balance between short-term and long-term contention, but that is a true balance that requires weighing both sides of the equation. I still think this team is closer to contention than you think. RoS projections have them as the best team in the AL East going forward, and I think the 2015 Red Sox have absolutely as talented a core as any other team in the division. The Blue Jays and Yankees are only getting older (you think this team doesn't have any prime guys? Check out their rosters) and lack impact MLB-ready prospects, and while the Orioles have stud young pitching, they likely won't get here in time before most of their lineup becomes free agents (Cruz, Hardy, and Markakis after this season; Davis and Wieters after next). Meanwhile, this is a team with multiple All-Star-caliber veterans (Ortiz, Pedroia, Lackey) combined with intriguing young players with upside (Bogaerts, Betts, Bradley, Middlebrooks), one of the best farm systems in baseball, and loads of payroll space (should be upwards of $80m, I believe). They have as good of a chance of winning the AL East next year as anyone. I especially think short-term contention should be a priority because Ortiz and Pedroia are effectively untradeable, which makes a full-on rebuild rather difficult, since you can't get future assets for two of your best players.
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Post by jmei on Jul 8, 2014 15:05:48 GMT -5
I agree that Marrero is not ready to start the season as the starting SS in Boston, but I think a Bogaerts/Middlebrooks/Holt trio is a fine enough plan for the left side of the infield.
I do think they need to add a starting-caliber catcher so they have a backup plan in case Vazquez's offense falters. My ideal target would be buying low on Jason Castro, who has two years of arbitration left (so under team control in 2015 and 2016). The Astros are motivated to move him, as he won't be around by the time their core matures and they'll want to open up the position for Max Stassi. He hits lefty (career .260/.342/.431 versus righties), and he'd make a fine platoon partner to ease Vazquez in next year. If Swihart is ready in 2016 (or even mid/late-2015), Castro is easily moved, and he's a fine safety net if Blake has a setback or two.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 8, 2014 15:20:24 GMT -5
Also, when looking at the worse production of guys like Pedroia and Ortiz, I think you have to a count for how weak this year's line up has been compared to last years. They don't work counts as well, the 6-9 hitters every night are hitting something like .200/.250/.300 with about 8 homers between them. It's not like the other guys at the top of the order are doing much either. I think that this probably makes a huge difference- lots of plate appearances that last year would've taken place against bullpen guys/tired starters with runners on base and threatening bats behind them, while this year it's relatively fresh starters, not too many runners, and when they do get on, everyone who hits after Napoli is typically god awful offensively, so the guys who might do damage aren't going to get anything to hit
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Post by theaveragefan88 on Jul 8, 2014 17:22:20 GMT -5
I know I am the site's #1 Deven Marrero fan, but I still don't think I am crazy for thinking he will be the starting SS by next spring. He will have had a little more than half a season at AAA and could very well get a cup of coffee with the big club in September with no playoff hopes.
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Post by jdb on Jul 8, 2014 20:28:55 GMT -5
I'm hoping Russell Martin can be had for another short term deal.
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Post by stevedillard on Jul 9, 2014 9:54:13 GMT -5
Speculating beyond the "buyers" and "sellers" labels, which is about accumulating prospect assets for current players, I am looking forward to the offseason. With the clear lack of offense, and the fact that the prospects other than X project to be complemenary bats (and X is also a bit of a question), a trade seems to be the clear path for next year.
With that said, I am preparing to see a lot of our favorite prospects heading out the door. Some may be painful, even if we like the trade (e.g. Stanton). How is the board with a trade divesting:
1.Mookie 2.Swihart 3.Owens 4.Devers 5.Margot 6.Rijo
Personally, I have my doubts about Betts and Owens, so would be OK with trading them. I like Swihart a lot, less because of his ability to be a middle of the order bat, but because of his premium position. I love to dream on young prospects, so Devers and Margot would be hard to part with, less so with Rijo.
How will the rest of you deal with losing a loved prospect?
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Post by Guidas on Jul 9, 2014 9:56:58 GMT -5
Well as I've said, and as we see this year, it's really difficult to improve the team without giving up too many prospects, burdening the team with too-long contracts AND not blocking the prospects that should play. And then we're also relying on production from those prospects. It's not that we shouldn't try to contend. It's that we shouldn't assume that we will when making every deal. This has to vary on a case-by-case basis, though. You can't be a hardline zealot and say that they shouldn't make any move that blocks a prospect or adds long-term salary. There's a price at which it makes sense to re-sign Lester, even if it means taking up a spot in the rotation (that could go to a prospect) and tying up some unproductive salary four or five years down the line. Yes, there's a tricky balance between short-term and long-term contention, but that is a true balance that requires weighing both sides of the equation. I still think this team is closer to contention than you think. RoS projections have them as the best team in the AL East going forward, and I think the 2015 Red Sox have absolutely as talented a core as any other team in the division. The Blue Jays and Yankees are only getting older (you think this team doesn't have any prime guys? Check out their rosters) and lack impact MLB-ready prospects, and while the Orioles have stud young pitching, they likely won't get here in time before most of their lineup becomes free agents (Cruz, Hardy, and Markakis after this season; Davis and Wieters after next). Meanwhile, this is a team with multiple All-Star-caliber veterans (Ortiz, Pedroia, Lackey) combined with intriguing young players with upside (Bogaerts, Betts, Bradley, Middlebrooks), one of the best farm systems in baseball, and loads of payroll space (should be upwards of $80m, I believe). They have as good of a chance of winning the AL East next year as anyone. I especially think short-term contention should be a priority because Ortiz and Pedroia are effectively untradeable, which makes a full-on rebuild rather difficult, since you can't get future assets for two of your best players. I think the Orioles pick up Markakis' option after this year, for all the reasons you just stated. I would love to know what the Sox plan is going forward into 2015. I completely agreed with Papi since 2011 - they need more pop in this line-up. They won the Series last year without more than him and Napoli, but, as we all know, such timely hitting is nothing that can be counted on (See: 2014). I am a firm believer in Earl Weaver's dictum of Pitching, defense, six or more high on base guys and the three-run homer." Papi saved this team time and time again last year, but he won't be what he is forever. This team needs a basher or two in a time when they are rare. This should be very interesting.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 9, 2014 10:06:22 GMT -5
I think the Orioles pick up Markakis' option after this year, for all the reasons you just stated. I would love to know what the Sox plan is going forward into 2015. I completely agreed with Papi since 2011 - they need more pop in this line-up. They won the Series last year without more than him and Napoli, but, as we all know, such timely hitting is nothing that can be counted on (See: 2014). I am a firm believer in Earl Weaver's dictum of Pitching, defense, six or more high on base guys and the three-run homer." Papi saved this team time and time again last year, but he won't be what he is forever. This team needs a basher or two in a time when they are rare. This should be very interesting. Agreed, but I'm not sure where we find them. I was just checking for upcoming free agents, and the only guy who looks promising would be Hanley Ramirez, which is interesting, but realistically the Dodgers will probably give him a big contract, and we'll just say "We have Middlebrooks, why pay through the nose for a guy who's at least approaching the downside of his career?" I do think there's a pretty good chance that we see a major trade made by the Sox this offseason though, I can't see any other way to significantly improve this offense in time to contend next year
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 9, 2014 10:12:52 GMT -5
I think the Orioles pick up Markakis' option after this year, for all the reasons you just stated. I would love to know what the Sox plan is going forward into 2015. I completely agreed with Papi since 2011 - they need more pop in this line-up. They won the Series last year without more than him and Napoli, but, as we all know, such timely hitting is nothing that can be counted on (See: 2014). I am a firm believer in Earl Weaver's dictum of Pitching, defense, six or more high on base guys and the three-run homer." Papi saved this team time and time again last year, but he won't be what he is forever. This team needs a basher or two in a time when they are rare. This should be very interesting. Agreed, but I'm not sure where we find them. I was just checking for upcoming free agents, and the only guy who looks promising would be Hanley Ramirez, which is interesting, but realistically the Dodgers will probably give him a big contract, and we'll just say "We have Middlebrooks, why pay through the nose for a guy who's at least approaching the downside of his career?" I do think there's a pretty good chance that we see a major trade made by the Sox this offseason though, I can't see any other way to significantly improve this offense in time to contend next year Stanton, though I cringe when I say it.
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Post by amfox1 on Jul 9, 2014 10:14:06 GMT -5
How is the board with a trade divesting: 1.Mookie 2.Swihart 3.Owens 4.Devers 5.Margot 6.Rijo Personally, I have my doubts about Betts and Owens, so would be OK with trading them. I like Swihart a lot, less because of his ability to be a middle of the order bat, but because of his premium position. I love to dream on young prospects, so Devers and Margot would be hard to part with, less so with Rijo. How will the rest of you deal with losing a loved prospect? Other than Swihart, I would have no issue trading anyone on the list for value. In fact, I believe we should trade Owens and Betts while their value is peaking, if it will land a premium bat.
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danr
Veteran
Posts: 1,871
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Post by danr on Jul 9, 2014 10:18:33 GMT -5
The Sox clearly need at least one more basher, probably two because Napoli and Ortiz are not going to last much longer. I think it is possible to acquire a couple of power hitters - probably minor leaguers close to the majors - through trades. For example, St. Louis has some promising power-hitting outfield prospects. Maybe one can be acquired in a Peavy + somebody(ies) deal. Then maybe another can be found in an off season deal, or late this month. The Sox have pitchers other than Peavy who could be traded.
Beyond that, what the Sox really have to do is to get decent production at nearly all positions. Replacing sub .200 hitters with .250-.270 hitters would completely alter the team's course. We should know by the end of the season if that is going to come from the young players. But the Sox have to stop playing Gomes, Drew and AJP, hopefully by jettisoning them in some way as soon as possible.
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Post by okin15 on Jul 9, 2014 10:28:10 GMT -5
I know I am the site's #1 Deven Marrero fan, but I still don't think I am crazy for thinking he will be the starting SS by next spring. He will have had a little more than half a season at AAA and could very well get a cup of coffee with the big club in September with no playoff hopes. I agree with JMei on this one. Marrero is the type of guy who's going to have to force his way onto the team with his bat, or play his way on in an injury call-up, not get handed a starting spot. Maybe if Middlebrooks and Checcini continue to falter, then he gets a shot. As for another basher, I think you have to hope that Bogaerts and/or WMB fit that profile, and that some help is on the way for the OF at some point down the line. I don't think you can go out and steal or sign a Stanton. But Marrero plays into that discussion too, as he certainly isn't one, and would harm our lineup construction (which is really the issue at the moment).
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Post by thelavarnwayguy on Jul 9, 2014 10:37:57 GMT -5
I think the days of trading a bunch of prospects for "a hitter" are over for a prudently managed baseball club, and I think Cherington is about as prudent as you can get. We are in an era of greatly increased parity between clubs. I'm dumping solid farm talent like the above only if we are trying to add that one great starting pitcher to a championship caliber club, or a Miguel Cabrera level bat. Other than that sort of scenario I think it is extremely short sighted to trade a boatload of premium farm talent. Supplemental guys yes. Players like Betts who may be blocked at his best slot...yeah. 3-5 premium prospects for even 2 years of control of Stanton...no.
Edit: I think we should be thinking about trading the below players:
Peavey Drew Gomes Uehara Lackey ( yeah, even Lackey in the right deal as we are probably not even in it next year but I'd consider extending him also ) and if we can't extend him Lester.
We can get a lot for those guys and maybe be a premium club again in 2 years. Look at the free agent market. There really isn't that much there ( realistically ) except for some starters. Hanley stays in LA probably. We can't do overslot signings much any more. It's a new ball game for us. We need to adapt. We really need to be a player development machine in order to win going forward. That is the key to almost any team's success going forward.
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Post by seanleary001 on Jul 9, 2014 10:40:42 GMT -5
Mookie Betts 8 R Brock Holt 7 L Dustin Pedroia 4 R David Ortiz DH L Mike Napoli 3 R Xander Bogaerts 6 R Shane Victorino 9 S Christian Vazquez 2 R Will Middlebrooks 5 R
Utility Fielders: Jackie Bradley Jr. OF L Ryan Lavarnway C/1B S Jonathan Herrera IF S Daniel Nava OF/1B S Mike Carp 1B/OF L
Starting Pitchers:
John Lackey RHP Clay Buchholz RHP Brandon Workman RHP Anthony Ranaudo RHP Rubby de la Rosa RHP
Relief Pitchers:
Drake Britton LHP Alex Wilson RHP Craig Breslow LHP Junichi Tazawa RHP Felix Doubront LHP
Closer:
Edward Mujica RHP
15 Extra For 40-Man: Matt Barnes Henry Owens Blake Swihart Dan Butler Travis Shaw Deven Marrero Sean Coyle Garin Cecchini Bryce Brentz Alex Hassan Keith Couch Brian Johnson Now Ramirez Allen Webster Steven Wright
*Bradley and Nava will get significant playing time against RHP
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Post by elguapo on Jul 9, 2014 10:43:04 GMT -5
I like Bradley in center with Bogaerts, Pedroia, and Vazquez/Swihart up the middle. They should be able to acquire at least one premium talent at the corners plus solid complementary pieces, retaining Holt as super-sub.
In that case Betts is the odd man out, though he could be one of the complementary pieces until they find a good trading partner.
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Post by iakovos11 on Jul 9, 2014 10:52:45 GMT -5
So your plan is to tank in 2015 already?
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Post by elguapo on Jul 9, 2014 10:59:17 GMT -5
So your plan is to tank in 2015 already? Realistically we are stuck with some pieces like Middlebrooks (Carp, Nava) until they can prove they are healthy and/or can hold their own in the majors despite some recent down performance. Ideally that can be established post-ASB, giving us more flexibility this offseason.
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Post by gregblossersbelly on Jul 9, 2014 11:08:01 GMT -5
So your plan is to tank in 2015 already? That payroll would prob be under 80m if you count Lackey at 500k.
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Post by ctfisher on Jul 9, 2014 11:14:38 GMT -5
As for another basher, I think you have to hope that Bogaerts and/or WMB fit that profile, and that some help is on the way for the OF at some point down the line. I don't think you can go out and steal or sign a Stanton. But Marrero plays into that discussion too, as he certainly isn't one, and would harm our lineup construction (which is really the issue at the moment). I don't see why we can't deal for an impact bat. By the time the season's over, we might have 10 guys who are consensus top 100 guys (betts, owens, swihart, vazquez(?), coyle, marrero, Devers, Ranaudo, margot(?), trey ball, and maybe chavis or someone). At least 3 of them will be top 50, and Owens and Betts are already in some top 20's, and Swihart's headed for top-30 or so I would think. With all of that in the system, plus guys like Barnes, webster, de la Rosa, workman and Middlebrooks, I think there's definitely a way to work out a big trade. Maybe not Stanton, but someone. I know people hate dealing prospects, and I certainly wouldn't trade all of our top 3 guys for one player, but if the front office wants to add a big bat (and we need one) there's no question in my mind we have the pieces to do it
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 9, 2014 11:23:46 GMT -5
The only prospects we should think about trading are the ones who are blocked in some way. I want no part of trading Swihart or Owens. Betts, I'm ok with. And please trade Cecchini if it's not too late.
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Post by jrffam05 on Jul 9, 2014 11:34:16 GMT -5
Keep the minor leaguers and just buy Stanton when he is a free agent 2 years from now.
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Post by jimed14 on Jul 9, 2014 11:38:24 GMT -5
Keep the minor leaguers and just buy Stanton when he is a free agent 2 years from now. Highly doubt he gets there.
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